Zuckerberg는 핵으로 간다

Zuckerberg Goes Nuclear THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Zuckerberg Goes Nuclear Zuckerberg Goes Nuclear The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle Jun 4, 2025 Subscribe now Share I will be on the Schwab Network today at 2:45PM EST previewing MongoDB earnings. In Today’s Issue: Model Portfolio Changes—-Adding to Pre Merger SPACs Our Next Webinar— - Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Zuckerberg Goes Nuclear The Nuclear Flip: How Trump and Zuckerberg Just Redefined the Power Grid—and What Comes Next The Next Operating System Is You: How AI Is Taking Over the Edge—and What Wall Street’s Missing The Next Shale Revolution Is 2 Miles Below Your Feet—and Wall Street Hasn’t Priced It In (Yet) and more…….. ETF Model Portfolio Change We are upping our pre merger SPAC allocation to 20% (SPCX) and decreasing TBIL to 10%. This is due to the asymmetrical potential of pre merger SPACs that have an NAV floor and the ability to play a lot of our favorite themes, especially Trump’s inner circle. ETF Model Portfolio June 2025 UPDATE.pdf 41.21 MB • PDF File Download — # (# ) Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Thu, Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT - Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside - How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does. - My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street To register: register.gotowebinar.com/register/8214490301707453020 Zuckerberg Goes Nuclear This was the most interesting news of the day….. Constellation Energy rallies 15% on Meta nuclear power deal Meta has signed a 20-year agreement to buy nuclear power from Constellation Energy, continuing the wave of tech giants teaming up with the industry. www.cnbc.com/2025/06/03/meta-signs-nuclear-power-deal-with-constellation-energy-.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter Was kicking myself for not owning CEG until it completely reversed and ended up negative…… ❝ CEG: Investors are entirely focused on price. After an initial +15% spike pre-open, CEG shares were trading roughly flat at $315-320 after the Meta transaction. CEG mgmt was clear that they would neither disclose price nor update long-term EPS guidance upon a data center transaction; however, many investors were bothered by the lack of disclosures. Assuming the low end of CEG's $80-88/MWh, implied pricing guidance represents a ~$30/MWh premium, a strong outcome for the more challenged small Illinois asset. This represents ~$275Mn annual above-market energy pricing on the transaction versus ~$50/MWh market power (9.1TWh x $30/MWh). ~$205Mn free cash flow and net income or ~$0.55 EPS (+3-4% vs FY28 Consensus median). The Clinton transaction was a net positive versus our modeled expectations, though shares were pricing in significant data center coming in. Jefferies I think if CEG pulled back more into the 10 day it could be buyable, however it could also be setting up what Gil Morales calls a punch bowl of death. The speculative nuclear’s look kind of the same….. I do think this news continues to show that it’s safe to go into AI infrastructure. Typically on a reversal like this in a bunch of names I find something buyable but not really seeing it at the moment, everything still looks extended. More on this below…. The other interesting thing from yesterday was the broadening out of the rally… ❝ The rest of the market finally woke up, and the broad tape was trading as it had earlier in the year, prior to Liberation Day. The S&P 500 Ex-Mag7 outperformed the Magnificent Seven. In the 44 trading days since Liberation Day, today was only the fourth day that the S&P 500 Ex-Mag7 outperformed the Magnificent Seven on a positive day for the market. Most outperformance days for the broad tape have occurred when Magnificent Seven leadership experienced downside volatility. Today caught our attention because the S&P 500 Equal Weight, the S&P 400 Midcaps, and the S&P 600 Small Caps all outperformed by their healthiest margins on a positive day for the market. In short, there was a broadening trade today. Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading This seems like a really, really, bad idea…. — # (# ) 💥 The Nuclear Flip: How Trump and Zuckerberg Just Redefined the Power Grid—and What Comes Next Let’s not mince words: this is the most important energy pivot in a generation. On May 23rd, Donald Trump signed four executive orders that triggered the most aggressive push toward nuclear energy dominance we’ve seen since the Cold War. And then just days later, Meta—yes, Facebook’s parent company— signed a 20-year deal with Constellation Energy (CEG) to buy nuclear power directly for its AI data centers. This wasn’t some ESG virtue signal. This was survival. And a roadmap for a $100 billion energy transition hiding in plain sight . 🔥 Why This Changes Everything Nuclear power is no longer about climate change. It’s about capacity. U.S. energy demand is projected to grow 50% by 2050 AI data centers alone could use 9% of total electricity by 2030 Renewables are intermittent. Natural gas is volatile. Coal is political poison. What’s left? Nuclear. Constant, clean, grid-stabilizing baseload power. And hyperscalers are now so desperate for it, they’re building their own nuclear supply chains . 💡 The Real Problem: Uranium Here’s the kicker: you can’t quadruple nuclear capacity without the fuel . And America has almost none of it. Right now: U.S. uses ~45 million pounds of uranium per year Trump’s plan would push that to ~180 million pounds Domestic production in 2023? Just 800,000 pounds 99% of U.S. uranium is imported—mostly from Canada, Australia, and Russia That’s not just an economic gap. That’s a national security crisis in waiting. 🏆 Winners: The Uranium Re-Rating Begins This uranium supply/demand disconnect is so severe that even a modest buildout could send prices soaring toward $150–$200 per pound (from ~$70 today). So here’s who wins: Ticker Company Thesis UUUU Energy Fuels Pure-play U.S. uranium miner with mill capacity. Shares +15% since orders. UEC Uranium Energy Corp Strong U.S. asset base + enrichment exposure. Execs met directly with Trump team. URNM Sprott Uranium Miners ETF Basket exposure to global miners, large inflows on nuclear news. CEG Constellation Energy Major nuke fleet + long-term contracts. Now doing private PPAs (Meta is first domino). SMRs NuScale (SMR), X-energy (private) Modular reactor developers that will power the next wave of AI + defense applications. ❌ Losers: The Energy Market Is Re-Ranking Sector Reason for Weakness Solar/Wind Developers Intermittency = vulnerability. AI workloads need 24/7 reliability. Subsidies getting slashed. Gas-Heavy Utilities Natural gas volatility + carbon penalties = long-term risk. Nuclear eats their lunch on baseload. Foreign Uranium Suppliers (e.g., Russia, Kazakhstan) Geopolitical risk rising. U.S. policy aims to repatriate supply chain. 🧨 Meta Just Kicked Off a Chain Reaction Meta’s deal with Constellation Energy (CEG) is the first hyperscaler-nuclear PPA in history . This is what investors missed: Meta just locked in 24/7 baseload for 20 years It won’t be the last—expect Amazon, Google, and Microsoft to follow This rewrites the AI infrastructure map—and utilities that own nuclear fleets are in the catbird seat Zuckerberg just picked a side in the energy war. It wasn’t wind. It wasn’t gas. It was nuclear . 🧠 GPTs Take The U.S. doesn’t need 400 GW of nuclear tomorrow. It needs a signal . A price spike. A structural incentive to build capacity—and revive a dead fuel cycle. That signal just got fired off like a flare over Three Mile Island. Investors should be snapping up uranium plays, nuke-heavy utilities, and the contractors who can help build the next generation of modular reactors. This is how a sector goes from hated to needed. And this is how a $5 billion uranium industry becomes a $100 billion strategic asset almost overnight. Stay tuned. We’re still early. The Next Operating System Is You: How AI Is Taking Over the Edge—and What Wall Street’s Missing TD Cowen came out with another great thematic report…. AI as the New Operating Layer.pdf 454.68 KB • PDF File Download I had GPT summarize the key points and pick some potential winners and losers…. We’ve written before that AI is the most transformational investment trend of our lifetimes. But here’s what most people are missing: ❝ The future of AI isn’t just in data centers. It’s in your pocket, on your wrist, and in every device you own. According to TD Cowen’s latest Ahead of the Curve report, we are now entering the fourth major wave of smartphone adoption —and this time, AI is the operating system . It’s not just about ChatGPT apps anymore. It’s about LLMs baked into every consumer device , controlling everything from your search engine to your health tracker. And with it comes a completely new compute layer — one that will reshape hardware demand, shift competitive dynamics, and possibly even dethrone Apple itself. Let’s unpack what this means for investors. 📲 Four Waves of Device Transformation TD Cowen maps the timeline like this: 2008–2010: App Store 2010–2015: 4G/Video 2021: Pandemic refresh 2025–2028: AI as the New OS The fourth wave is what we’re entering now — where AI isn’t a feature. It’s the platform . Where “apps” are replaced by agentic LLMs that integrate directly with your device’s camera, microphone, health data, and group chats. You won’t ask Siri to book dinner — your device will infer that you’re hungry and ask you if you’d like your usual. It’s a bold vision. And it changes everything. 🔧 The Hardware Shockwave AI on-device isn’t cheap. It requires: 2x memory bandwidth Bigger die packaging Up to 30% more power consumption on flagship smartphones This isn’t theoretical. Cowen shows that running something like Llama 4 Scout will require a 1.6W power increase , which is a 30% jump from current iPhones. This means that smartphone architecture has to evolve — fast. 🔄 Apple at a Crossroads Cowen doesn’t pull punches: Apple is vulnerable. Despite the hype around “Apple Intelligence,” the report argues it’s not enough. Apple’s current LLM integration is weak. Worse: OpenAI is becoming a threat, not a partner . Apple can no longer rely on ecosystem lock-in. If OpenAI builds better hardware, or if other LLMs become embedded in Android OEMs first, Apple could lose its lead . Cowen suggests Apple’s only options now are: Acquire or license from a foundation model company (like Mistral or Meta) Launch a GenAI SDK by 2026 Allow high-end iPhones (Pro Max) to run full LLMs on-device Go more aggressive on cloud infrastructure to counter OpenAI’s Stargate project That’s a tall order for a company that prides itself on vertical control. 🧠 Winners and Losers 🏆 Winners Company Why Micron (MU) 2× memory bandwidth = more DRAM in every device. Huge long-term tailwind. ARM (ARM) Central to mobile SoC architecture. Will benefit from on-device AI model integration. Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX) More complex chips = more advanced packaging and fab equipment. ASML (ASML) EUV lithography is essential for high-performance AI silicon at edge scale. Qualcomm (QCOM) Already pivoting to NPU-centric chipsets. Positioned to power next-gen Android devices. ❌ Losers Company Why Apple (AAPL) Currently underpowered on-device AI. Risk of falling behind if OpenAI or Android OEMs move faster. QRVO, SWKS RF content may not scale with AI demands. Held ratings in the report reflect limited upside. Incumbent app developers If LLMs replace “apps” with agentic interfaces, traditional app ecosystems may shrink. 💡 Why This Isn’t Just Another Smartphone Cycle Most investors are treating this like a minor spec bump — just more AI in phones. That’s a mistake. ❝ This is a platform shift. Like DOS to Windows. Like desktop to cloud. It’s that big. AI isn’t just another layer on top of iOS or Android. It’s becoming the operating layer itself — and the companies that power that layer will own the next trillion-dollar platforms. TD Cowen puts it bluntly: “LLMs will become operating systems.” And if your chip, your memory, your software, or your foundry doesn’t support that layer, you’re out. 🧭 Final Thought We are no longer betting on which LLM answers trivia better. We are now betting on which companies will power the infrastructure that makes AI your default digital interface — from smartphone to smartwatch, from personal agent to ambient intelligence. Invest accordingly. Long: MU, ARM, AMAT, LRCX, QCOM Tactical: Watch Apple’s next move closely Avoid: Legacy app ecosystems, commoditized hardware The next operating system isn’t in the cloud. It’s in your hand. And the clock is ticking. Anything energy related is going to catch my eye, so this did….. Bill Gates Is Backing This Geothermal Company. Will Trump’s Republicans? Geothermal projects have broad support in Washington, but federal incentives are on the chopping block www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/bill-gates-geothermal-fervo-energy-043cf2f3?mod=hp_lead_pos10 I got stopped out of ORA last year and haven’t not gotten back in, but the chart looks interesting here. The optimal buy point would have been the undercut and rally at the 50 day, but it’s not extended and the 200 day could be a nice stop….. The Next Shale Revolution Is 2 Miles Below Your Feet—and Wall Street Hasn’t Priced It In (Yet) Bill Gates calls it “mind-blowing.” Donald Trump’s energy secretary wants to “get it going.” And in a rare moment of bipartisan alignment, Republicans and Democrats are quietly agreeing: geothermal energy may be the most disruptive—and investable—clean power trend of the decade. Welcome to the age of supercritical geothermal —the only energy source that’s: ✅ Carbon-free ✅ 24/7 baseload ✅ Domestic ✅ Scalable with fracking tech It’s nuclear-level reliability without the meltdowns. It’s clean like solar, but without the clouds. And thanks to advances in oil & gas drilling, it’s now ready to scale —at commercial economics. The only question is: who gets rich? 🌋 Fervo Energy: The New King of the Core At the center of this transformation is Fervo Energy , a Houston-based geothermal disruptor backed by Bill Gates , Devon Energy, Liberty Energy, and Google. They’re building Cape Station in Utah— the world’s largest enhanced geothermal project , using horizontal drilling, seismic sensors, and fracking to extract heat instead of hydrocarbons. Projected cost? $2 billion. Projected output? Enough to power 375,000 homes. First utility customer? Southern California Edison. It’s a tech company masquerading as an energy play. But here’s what matters most for investors: this project only works at scale with federal tax credits —which are now under threat in Trump’s new tax bill. 🏛️ The Political Wildcard: Tax Credits & Trump’s New Energy Doctrine Geothermal got a boost under Biden’s IRA. But Trump’s new tax plan aims to slash nearly all clean-energy incentives—unless exceptions are carved out. The good news? Geothermal is baseload , not intermittent. It fits Republican goals of energy reliability and domestic production. Trump insiders are already invested (e.g., Liberty Energy, Devon Energy). Gates personally lobbied Trump to preserve support for geothermal—and insiders say the reception was positive. But here’s the key investment insight: whether or not credits survive, geothermal is coming. With them, it grows 10× faster. Without them, the early winners just earn fatter margins —and AI/data centers will pay the premium for reliability. 🏆 First-Order Winners Company Rationale Ormat Technologies (ORA) The only public geothermal pure-play. Profitable, global operations, long-term PPAs, and defensive income + upside growth. Fervo Energy (private) The Tesla of geothermal. Horizontal drilling, fracking-for-heat, big tech backing. A potential future IPO bombshell. Liberty Energy (LBRT) Fracking firm turned geothermal drilling enabler. Think of it as Halliburton 2.0. Devon Energy (DVN) Strategic backer of Fervo. Smart E&P pivoting early into clean baseload. Baker Hughes (BKR), Schlumberger (SLB) Tool and service suppliers already pivoting into geothermal from oilfield tech. Southern California Edison (EIX) First major utility customer locking in long-term baseload contracts from geothermal. ⚡ Second-Order Beneficiaries Company Rationale Quanta Services (PWR) Grid buildout contractor—essential for geothermal transmission to data centers and cities. SMCI, VST, CEG Data centers and utilities looking for clean, continuous power sources will favor geothermal over intermittent renewables. TerraPower (private) Competes with geothermal for 24/7 clean power grants—may win if geothermal is defunded. Solar/Wind Equipment Names Could lose relative share of attention and incentives if geothermal proves more politically palatable. 💡 Spotlight: Why ORMAT (ORA) Is the Best Public Bet Now Everyone’s watching Fervo. But savvy investors should be watching Ormat (ORA) — because they’ve been executing this vision for two decades : 70+ geothermal and recovered-energy power plants Revenue: ~$870M; EBITDA margin ~35% Long-term contracts with utilities globally Already profitable, cash-flow positive, and paying a dividend Positioned to benefit from any tax-credit continuity, but doesn’t need them to survive Think of ORA as the Brookfield of geothermal —only smaller, less flashy, and flying under the radar. If Fervo is the disruptor, ORA is the compounder. 🧠 Our Final View Geothermal isn’t a science fair project anymore. It’s a real asset class , with: Political tailwinds from both parties Near-zero emissions AI/data center demand alignment Immediate commercial customers Deep-pocketed investors already moving in The upside is asymmetric . The timing is now. And the market hasn’t caught on—yet. ORA is the play today. Fervo is the one to watch tomorrow. 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