비트코인 주 3회 3배 헤지 가능해졌다 – 그런데 대부분 투자자는 여전히 안 할 거다

THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts You Can Hedge Bitcoin 3x a Week Now. Most Investors Will Still Do It Wrong. You Can Hedge Bitcoin 3x a Week Now. Most Investors Will Still Do It Wrong. Feb 4, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily --- H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. Table of Contents --- H.E.A.T. The simple edge: 0DTE covered calls on Mon/Wed/Fri … • 1) Time decay is your friend when you sell very sh … • 2) You’re not married to the position • 3) You can re-run the playbook multiple times per … Now the trade math (IBIT = 44.22 on 2/3; options e … Hedge trade #1: 44/45 call credit spread + cheap d … First: the math check What it is Key outcomes (using net credit +0. • 18) Quick P/L map (net credit +0. • 18) Hedge trade #2: financed downside convexity (put l … What it is Key outcomes Quick P/L map Long strategy with downside protection: 1x2 call b … What it is Key outcomes Quick P/L map The takeaway --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Noise: The loudest tape-read today is the “AI is b … --- A Stock I’m Watching --- In Case You Missed It --- H.E.A.T. IBIT just became a real options tool: Monday/Wednesday expirations are here IBIT options have now expanded beyond the old “just-Friday” rhythm. With SEC approval and exchange rollouts, IBIT is one of the “qualified” tickers that can list Monday and Wednesday expirations in addition to the typical Friday expirations — giving you the equivalent of three expiries a week (Mon/Wed/Fri) to work with. That’s not trivia. It changes the way you can manage time and risk in Bitcoin exposure. The advantage isn’t “more trades.” The advantage is more control: You can sell time in one-day slices instead of being forced into a full week of exposure. You can express a view around a specific window (today → Wednesday close, or Wednesday → Friday close) instead of carrying overnight/weekend risk you didn’t mean to carry. And because these are standard listed options, you can sell and buy-to-close anytime during market hours — meaning you can manufacture a higher probability outcome by taking profits early and avoiding the “last hour” gamma circus. The simple edge: 0DTE covered calls on Mon/Wed/Fri (and why it works) The cleanest “use case” is writing 0DTE calls over your IBIT holdings on Monday/Wednesday/Friday. We’ve talked a decent amount about this over the past couple of days. This isn’t a hedge. It’s a premium-harvesting overlay. The edge comes from three realities: • 1) Time decay is your friend when you sell very short-dated options 0DTE options shed time value fast. If IBIT chops sideways for a few hours, the call you sold can lose value quickly — and you can buy it back and be done. • 2) You’re not married to the position The “cheat code” in covered calls is closing them early: Sell the call when volatility is elevated (often after an up-move). Buy it back when it’s down 50–80%. Don’t stick around for the last hour when one headline can turn a “safe” call into a problem. • 3) You can re-run the playbook multiple times per week Instead of waiting for Friday every time, Monday/Wednesday expirations let you “reset” more often with less calendar risk. The mindset shift: You’re not trying to win the entire Bitcoin move. You’re trying to rent out volatility in short bursts while keeping the core position. Two guardrails (important): 0DTE call writing is short gamma. Don’t be cute. Size it like an overlay, not like a religion. Bitcoin trades 24/7; IBIT doesn’t. If you sell overnight exposure , understand you can wake up to a gap. This trade isn’t a hedge, it’s just a way to potentially earn a bit extra on your holdings. With Bitcoin in a correction, you can also use options to hedge your longs…. Now the trade math (IBIT = 44.22 on 2/3; options expire 2/ • 4) All P/L below is at expiration and shown per share (multiply by 100 for per-contract). Hedge trade #1: 44/45 call credit spread + cheap downside put Structure (exp 2/4): Sell 44 call @ 1.01 Buy 45 call @ 0.53 Buy 43 put @ 0.3 First: the math check Using your listed legs, the net credit is: 1.01 − 0.53 − 0.3 = +0.18 credit What it is This is a bear call spread (defined risk) with a lottery-ticket put stapled on. It’s basically saying: “Pay me if IBIT doesn’t rip higher…” “…and if it breaks, I want a little convexity.” Key outcomes (using net credit +0. • 18) Max profit: +0.18 (=$18/contract) Happens if IBIT closes ≤ 44 (and the put doesn’t matter unless <43). Upside breakeven: 44.18 Above that, the short call starts eating your credit. Max loss: 0.82 (=$82/contract) Happens if IBIT closes ≥ 45. (Width 1.00 − credit 0.18 = 0. • 82) Downside “bonus”: below 43, the long put kicks in and the P/L improves dollar-for-dollar. Quick P/L map (net credit +0. • 18) Close 44.00 → +0.18 Close 44.18 → ~0 Close 45.00+ → −0.82 (max loss) Close 42.00 → +1.18 Close 40.00 → +3.18 Takeaway: This is a hedge overlay that’s happy if price is flat/down, loses if IBIT squeezes higher, and has defined upside risk. It’s not “insurance” — it’s a financed directional hedge with a crash kicker. Hedge trade #2: financed downside convexity (put ladder/backspread) Structure (exp 2/4): Sell 45 put @ 1.09 Buy 44 put @ 0.59 Buy 43 put @ 0.30 Net credit: 1.09 − 0.59 − 0.30 = +0.20 credit (=$20/contract) What it is Think of it as: a 45/44 put credit spread (pays you if IBIT stays up), plus a 43 put (pays you if IBIT really breaks). This is the classic “I want to get paid… unless we drift down into the pain zone.” Key outcomes Max profit: +0.20 (=$20/contract) if IBIT closes ≥ 45 Upper breakeven (soft selloff): 44.80 Max loss: −0.80 (=$80/contract) Happens if IBIT closes between 43 and 44 (it’s basically flat-loss in that zone) Lower breakeven (hard selloff): 42.20 Below 42.20, the extra put starts overpowering the short put and you go green again. Quick P/L map Close 45.00+ → +0.20 Close 44.80 → ~0 Close 44.00 → −0.80 (max loss) Close 43.00 → −0.80 (max loss) Close 42.20 → ~0 Close 40.00 → +2.20 Takeaway: This is a “stay strong or flush” hedge. It’s great if you’re worried about a real downdraft. It’s not great if you expect a gentle grind lower into 43–44, because that’s the valley where it loses. Long strategy with downside protection: 1x2 call backspread Structure (exp 2/4): Sell 44 call @ 1.01 Buy 2x 45 calls @ 0.53 each Net: 1.01 − 1.06 = −0.05 debit (=$5/structure) What it is This is a cheap convex upside bet: limited loss if IBIT is flat/down, big upside if IBIT rips, but a nasty “air pocket” if IBIT pins near the short strike area. Key outcomes If IBIT ≤ 44: loss is just the debit → −0.05 Max loss: −1.05 (=$ • 105) Happens around 45 (moderate rally hurts you most) Upside breakeven: 46.05 Above 46.05: you’re long convex upside (profits grow as IBIT rises) Quick P/L map Close 44.00 → −0.05 Close 45.00 → −1.05 (max loss) Close 46.05 → ~0 Close 48.00 → +1.95 Takeaway: This is not a hedge. It’s a breakout weapon: “small cost, big upside if we rip.” The trade-off is you get hurt if IBIT rises a little but not enough. The takeaway These new IBIT expirations don’t magically create edge. They create control: control over time (shorter windows), control over exposure (you can close intraday), and control over hedge budgeting (you can run protection in smaller, more frequent slices instead of paying for a whole week every time). --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Noise: The loudest tape-read today is the “AI is breaking → software is uninvestable → semis will implode → gold crash means debasement is over (or gold bounce means the crash never mattered)” storyline. That’s all one-day narrative overreach. Yes, software got smoked, but the market is treating any recurring-revenue, high-margin “knowledge business” as if Anthropic just turned it into a commodity overnight. Reuters’ reporting on Anthropic’s Claude Cowork plug-ins sparked exactly that fear—legal/data/analytics names got hit hard because investors jumped straight to “pricing power is gone.” And on the metals side, people keep trying to turn a positioning unwind into a regime change: “Warsh killed gold,” then “gold is back, so the crash was fake.” The reality is that margin mechanics and crowded positioning can crush and then snap back—both moves can be “true” without telling you anything profound about the long-run thesis. News & takeaways: The real signal is re-pricing and rotation, not apocalypse. On software we’re at dot-com-era extremes in the software-vs-semis spread—software deeply oversold vs. semis historically stretched—so a tactical mean-reversion window is opening even if a durable base takes time (think “snap-back risk,” not “all-clear”). On AI: the cracks aren’t “AI stops,” they’re capital discipline + credibility stress—OpenAI has been reported to be exploring alternatives to some Nvidia chips, while Nvidia is publicly walking markets back from the idea of a single giant, binding $100B commitment (“one step at a time”), which matters because the whole AI complex has been priced like funding is infinite and demand is frictionless. Add Altman himself saying adoption has been slower than he expected, and you get the right takeaway: the market is moving from AI hype → AI ROI, and that de-rates the “priced-for-perfection” software/analytics cohort first. Finally, precious metals: after the historic washout, gold and silver rebounded sharply (gold on track for its biggest daily jump since 2008 in Reuters’ write-up), which supports the view that the crash was heavily positioning/margin/liquidity-driven—but volatility stays high, so size it like a trade unless you’re willing to sit through violent air pockets. --- A Stock I’m Watching Teradyne (TER) — Semi test has quietly become one of the cleanest “AI infrastructure” bottleneck plays, and TER is a high‑beta way to express that view: the bull setup is improving visibility as AI compute + memory drive higher test intensity/complexity, with incremental tailwinds from any rebound in mobile builds (the recent iPhone build-plan chatter matters because it can pull through incremental tester demand), and—most importantly—the potential step‑function catalyst if TER is qualified as a second source for NVIDIA GPU test (a narrative that can re-rate expectations quickly if confirmed). The flip side is exactly why it’s a watchlist name: this pocket of semis has been ripping and can get overextended, so TER can trade more like a momentum proxy than a fundamentals story—any “AI capex digestion” headline, qualification slippage, or a handset plan rollback can hit the stock fast because expectations move ahead of fundamentals. The key tells to watch are simple: ( • 1) order commentary/lead times and mix at the next print, ( • 2) any explicit customer/qualification breadcrumb on GPU test, and ( • 3) whether the mobile uplift is durable demand or just a pull‑in that fades. --- In Case You Missed It Matthew Tuttle brings the HEAT. Nobody Special on why it is game over for the AI trade. Bob Coleman explains WTF is going on with gold and silver. 1. substack.com/@georgenoble/note/p-186535253?r=35saq&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action The --- H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved. Keep Reading Jan 16, 2026 • 12 min read Did Anthropic Just Kill Software Stocks? Jan 20, 2026 • 13 min read Want Better Stock Picks? Start With This One Question (It Changes Everything) Jan 28, 2026 • 14 min read Gold > 5,000 Isn’t a Trade... It’s a Warning Label View more 10