채권 자경단이 주식 시장 랠리를 방해할 것인가?

Will the Bond Vigilantes Trip Up The Stock Market Rally? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Will the Bond Vigilantes Trip Up The Stock Market Rally? Will the Bond Vigilantes Trip Up The Stock Market Rally? Jul 15, 2025 Subscribe now Share Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Here’s what’s happening today: What the stock market is understanding that the bond market is not The market is wrong to expect a rate cut in September, says Citadel Securities www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-stock-market-is-understanding-that-the-bond-market-is-not-a57e1c39?mod=home_lead If you are betting on the bond guys being right vs. the stock guys, I am going to take the bond guys every time. Speaking of the bond guys, this can’t be good…… Japanese Bonds Pushed Lower by Fiscal Worries Before Election The slump in Japan’s long-term bonds intensified Monday, pushing yields sharply higher in a move that puts global debt markets on alert. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-14/japan-government-bonds-ruffled-by-fiscal-worries-before-election?srnd=homepage-americas A Treasury Bill Deluge Is Here. What Could Go Wrong. www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-bill-auction-debt-ceiling-aa0ee5a4?mod=hp_SP_A_1_1 When Japanese bond yields rise Japanese investors tend to sell US Treasuries to bring assets home to invest in higher Japanese yields. Market still betting on TACO….. ❝ Tariff headlines briefly dominated the market but were eventually faded. Trump has threatened 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, to be effective from 1st August. But he also indicated that he is open for discussions which led the market to believe that eventually tariffs would be lower. As argued yesterday, we expect eventual EU tariffs to be around 10-15%. While still negative from the macro perspective, we do not see a material market impact Mohit Kumar, Jefferies This is something to keep an eye on if it picks up steam….. — # (# ) Going to be talking about a few key concepts during our webinar on July 31 at 2pm EST….. The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover You can click HERE to register One of the main areas of discussion will be about why you should invest in themes, not asset classes, factors, or styles…. 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes ‘Story’ stocks are smoking hot in 2025. How it could end badly for investors. In the U.S. stock market of 2025, a company’s ability to reliably generate profits is taking a back seat to its ability to tell a good story. www.marketwatch.com/story/story-stocks-are-smoking-hot-in-2025-this-is-how-it-could-end-badly-for-investors-e12c64f4?mod=home_lead There are meme stocks, short squeeze situations, and then there are themes. The meme’s and the short squeezes situations still exist, and you can play them if you are nimble. The themes are different. Some stocks within themes are memey or short squeeze types of situations, but they can still have legs if the theme is strong, like drones, robotics, AI, etc. You just need to size accordingly and try to make your trades as asymmetric as possible. Drones are a great example of a theme you want to invest in…. — # (# ) The Ukraine war shows quite clearly that they are the future of warfare. Then you have Trump singing executive orders. I have been hearing some good things about Grok 4, so I had it create a sample drone basket…. Company Ticker Weight Rationale AeroVironment Inc. AVAV 20% Dominant in military drones like Switchblade munitions and Puma surveillance systems; poised for surge from increased U.S. defense spending (proposed $1T+ budget in • 2026) and global conflicts; shares up 49% YTD with strong rebound potential. Highest weight due to pure-play exposure and tactical drone demand. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. KTOS 15% Innovator in unmanned systems like Valkyrie drones; benefits from $1.5B DoD contracts and GE partnerships; 92% 1-year return signals momentum in defense tech amid geopolitical risks.Strong allocation for its role in affordable, high-volume drone warfare. Joby Aviation Inc. JOBY 15% Leading eVTOL developer for air taxis; on track for commercial flights by late 2025 with $813M cash and Toyota backing; 85% 1-year gains reflect urbanization trends. Equal high weight to capture the passenger drone boom. EHang Holdings Ltd. EH 10% Pioneer in autonomous eVTOL flying taxis; certified in China with viability in 3-5 years; global expansion potential despite volatility. Weighted for Asia-led growth in urban mobility. Red Cat Holdings Inc. RCAT 10% Military-grade drones via Teal and FlightWave acquisitions; Blue UAS-approved for defense; taps into robotic integration for both military and commercial.Allocation reflects niche strength in secure, NDAA-compliant systems. Ondas Holdings Inc. ONDS 10% Enables autonomous BVLOS drone fleets with FAA-certified tech; partnerships like Palantir boost AI-driven operations for inspection and security. Weighted for critical infrastructure in commercial drone scaling. Draganfly Inc. DPRO 5% Veteran in unmanned helicopters for public safety, EMS, and delivery; modular designs for diverse applications. Lower weight as a specialized play with steady but less explosive growth. AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. UAVS 5% Fixed-wing drones for agriculture and defense; Blue UAS clearance expands public-safety roles. Allocation for ag-tech upside in precision farming. Amazon.com Inc. AMZN 5% Prime Air drone delivery breakthroughs expected H2 2025; MK30 drones for longer-range ops; small but high-impact segment amid e-commerce dominance.Modest weight since drones are non-core but catalytic. Boeing Co. BA 5% MQ-25 Stingray uncrewed refueling drone; 2025 flights and defense contracts; 45% 3-month gains from tariffs and orders.Lower allocation as a diversified aerospace giant with drone as one pillar. This basket balances high-conviction pure-plays (70% weight) for alpha generation with blue-chip anchors (10%) for risk mitigation. Expected drivers include a 14.3% CAGR in global drone tech through 2030 and 20.8% in commercial drones. Risks: Regulatory hurdles, supply chain issues, and competition from non-US firms like DJI. I'd advise monitoring for additions like Archer Aviation (ACHR) if eVTOL momentum accelerate. Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don't share information that can identify you. We will also talk about edges and asymmetrical trades….. 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Edges and Asymmetry How some pros use options to trade Nvidia and other tech stocks while limiting risk With Nvidia’s stock at record highs, some investors might be wary of buying. Options strategists suggest other ways to play the name. www.marketwatch.com/story/how-some-pros-use-options-to-trade-nvidia-and-other-tech-stocks-while-limiting-risk-5b9ef3be?mod=home_lead Options can be a powerful tool. Buying a call option on a stock you think is going to rise can be an asymmetrical trade. Your risk is the money you paid for the option (assuming it’s near or out of the money the premium will be much less than the stock price). If you are wrong you lose a little, if you are right then your upside can be unlimited. Options can also provide edges, most options expire worthless, meaning it’s the person writing them, not buying them, that makes money. If you write a put option on a stock you think will go up (cash covered please) you have a few potential outcomes: If the stock goes up and expires above your strike price you keep the premium. It’s not asymmetrical like a call option though. If they stock closes at or below the strike then you get assigned and buy the stock at a lower price than it was when you put the trade on. Still a win, you get a stock you like at a lower price. Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0