월스트리트의 조용한 피벗: Greenlit 위험만 발생하는 이유

Wall Street’s Quiet Pivot: Why Yields Just Greenlit Risk THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Wall Street’s Quiet Pivot: Why Yields Just Greenlit Risk Wall Street’s Quiet Pivot: Why Yields Just Greenlit Risk The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle May 28, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: Frances Stacey joins the podcast to talk all things markets Wall Street’s Quiet Pivot: Why Yields Just Greenlit Risk The AI Uprising No One Saw Coming——And Big Tech Should Fear Not 007—But Just as Disruptive: The AI Agents Set to Blow Up Big Tech and more…….. Frances Stacey joins the podcast to talk all things markets….. Wall Street’s Quiet Pivot: Why Yields Just Greenlit Risk — # (# ) Market’s were helped by Trump’s delay of EU tariffs and Japan signaling lower bond supply, which brought down global bond yields. As we talked about a bit yesterday, and Frances covered in the podcast, lower debt issuance drives yields down and incentivizes investors to go back into Treasuries. Keep an eye on this though…. Japan’s 40-year bond sale draws weakest demand since July Long-dated debt sells off as concerns mount over world’s third-largest market www.ft.com/content/19315b9b-1e5e-463d-8255-54a922975dcc I continue to be short puts on TLT, and may add some more short puts or long calls on weakness. I could have, and perhaps should have closed out when we broke liberation day and/or yearly lows. However, part of my Trump’s Inner Circle theme is investing in Trump’s favorite asset classes. One thing is clear, he wants lower rates. He can’t control what the Fed or the bond vigilantes do, but he is paying attention, and one wonders if one reason he caved on EU tariffs was higher bond yields. TLT is still clearly in a downtrend, but Friday’s move was an undercut and rally at the yearly lows…… Treasury Secretary Bessent is counting on this plan to lower long-term yields U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has an idea in mind that he says should help to bring down long-term Treasury yields, which act as a benchmark for interest rates. But one big question remains: Will it work? www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-secretary-bessent-has-a-plan-to-bring-down-long-term-yields-but-will-it-work-bbe73dfe?mod=home_lead So I also wonder how much interest rates have to do with this….. Wall Street Bets the Worst of Trump’s Trade War Is Behind It Dow gains more than 700 points after U.S., EU make progress on trade talks www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/trump-tariff-trade-war-eu-markets-55c1c54e?mod=hp_lead_pos1www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/trump-tariff-trade-war-eu-markets-55c1c54e?mod=hp_lead_pos1 As I said on News Nation yesterday…. Morning in America : Matthew Tuttle grabien.com/file/getmedia?id=2953700&key=73d5b51dec91b0dea598af4e4defebb9&userid=8869 You don’t really know what Trump wants from these tariff negotiations because it’s all Art of the Deal, but his overall economic plan doesn’t work without lower rates. Speaking of Trump’s favorite asset classes…. Bitcoin price surge encourages more companies to acquire crypto Many digital asset firms are trying to emulate software group Strategy’s success www.ft.com/content/33af0d2a-c3ff-4e43-85d3-10f46848c401 I wasn’t expecting the dip in DJT, but the dilution issue seemed to be a major factor. I did buy the dip when the 50 day held…. Meanwhile, this is the most important item of the day…. Nvidia’s earnings are stock market’s next test after May’s Big Tech comeback The Big Tech comeback in May follows a harsh fall after President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs shocked investors, businesses and U.S. trade partners www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidias-earnings-are-the-stock-markets-next-major-test-after-mays-big-tech-comeback-418b019c?mod=home_lead I’m going to be on the Schwab Network this morning at 8:20AM to preview NVDA earnings. Bottom line, all roads lead to NVDA. When you look at so many of the themes we watch, they all need NVDA chips to run. Today is all going to be about expectations, which are going to be ridiculously high. Is NVDA going to say enough for the stock to justify February’s highs, or January’s, before all the consternation about tariffs? If not I think you look to buy weakness. Watch the 200 day moving average… Uh oh….. — # (# ) The AI Uprising No One Saw Coming——And Big Tech Should Fear I daily scan a bunch of Wall Street research to see if there is anything of interest, mostly not, but every once in a while I stumble across something. This caught my eye from Jefferies yesterday….. ❝ DECENTRALISING BIG TECH – LESS DEMAND FOR DATA CENTERS: Chris Wood highlighted Tether (issuer of the dominant stablecoin USDT) announced that it plans to release later this year an open-source software development kit for its upcoming AI platform, QVAC (Quantum Verse Automatic Computer), which it claims will let developers run and evolve AI agents directly on personal devices, with no data centers required.  Jef-X anecdotally would note how Tech savvy individuals are very much on board with this new world in order to avoid Big Tech as the gatekeeper of AI.  Chris rightly warns that risk of disruption to big tech still is more than understated the 4 Hyperscalers, combined market capitalisation of 7.1% of global stock market cap vs 7.9% of global market cap reached in early Feb. JEF X Anything that could change the narrative on data centers and capex could be market moving, as we saw with the DeepSeek news. So I had GPT take a deep dive…. Something seismic is brewing under Silicon Valley’s feet—and most investors are completely blind to it. While Wall Street chases Nvidia and slaps trillion-dollar valuations on the “Magnificent Four” hyperscalers, a quiet revolution is forming in the shadows. Last week, Tether —yes, the same Tether behind the USDT stablecoin —announced it will soon release an open-source AI platform called QVAC : the Quantum Verse Automatic Computer . Think of it as an AI operating system that lets developers run intelligent agents directly on your personal device— no cloud, no servers, no Big Tech gatekeeper . ❝ If this works—and that's a big if—it could be the most disruptive threat to the AI oligopoly since the PC unseated mainframes. 1. QVAC: The End of the Cloud? Tether claims QVAC will allow: On-device AI agents to train, evolve, and act locally—bypassing data centers entirely Developers to deploy AI systems that aren’t surveilled, throttled, or monetized by cloud giants A fully open, peer-to-peer AI economy where power belongs to users, not gatekeepers To borrow from history: if OpenAI is Microsoft Word, QVAC is Linux. It won’t be pretty, but it will be free—and it will scale on the backs of tinkerers, libertarians, and anyone fed up with Google logging their thoughts. 2. Why This Is a Real Threat to Big Tech Today, the four AI hyperscalers— Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta —control 7.1% of the entire global stock market . That’s nearly $7.1 trillion in market cap riding on the continued centralization of compute and data. But Chris Wood nailed it: this centralization is underappreciated risk . Tech-savvy users are waking up. They don’t want chatbots that report back to Seattle or Palo Alto. They want sovereign AI —fast, local, uncensored. If QVAC—or anything like it—delivers even 20% of what it promises, it could: Cut hyperscaler AI margins in half over time Obsolete parts of the cloud AI stack (APIs, vector DBs, inference endpoints) Shift user adoption toward device-native models (Snapdragon, AMD NPUs, open-source agents) 3. Winners & Losers Type Name Rating Rationale ✅ Winner Tether (private) — May become the Linux of AI—enabling sovereign, local agents at scale. ✅ Winner AMD 9/10 Desktop + mobile NPU chips = ideal on-device AI compute partner. ✅ Winner Qualcomm (QCOM) 8/10 Already shipping AI-capable chips to Android and PC markets. ✅ Winner Arm Holdings (ARM) 8/10 Licensing architecture for lightweight, battery-efficient AI inference. ✅ Winner Linux/Open Source Ecosystem — Gains as QVAC builds on FOSS and open AI agent standards. | ❌ Loser | Microsoft (MSFT) | 6/10 | Copilot and Azure AI face headwinds if users shift away from cloud-bound models. | | ❌ Loser | Google (GOOGL) | 5/10 | Gemini loses dominance if QVAC agents run local and free. | | ❌ Loser | Amazon (AMZN) | 5/10 | Bedrock, Sagemaker and AWS AI inference margins face disintermediation.| | ❌ Loser | Meta (META) | 6/10 | Llama models may thrive—but Facebook’s centralized agent offerings could face pushback. | 4. Should You Sell Big Tech? No—but you should hedge. The hyperscalers aren’t going away tomorrow. But the parabolic AI valuation premiums they’re enjoying today assume that they’ll keep dominating compute for the next 10 years. QVAC—and other open, on-device models—represent a non-zero probability that AI demand splinters off from the cloud and re-localizes at the edge . 5. GPTs Portfolio Playbook Buy AMD and QCOM —they’ll ride the first wave of local AI adoption on devices. Watch Tether, Hugging Face, and Replit —the next decentralized compute wave may start here. Trim hyperscaler exposure if you’re overweight; use those proceeds to build a hedge around edge-AI chips and open agent infrastructure. Monitor Project QVAC and download it when it hits GitHub. It may look primitive—but so did Linux in 1992. Bottom Line This isn’t about Tether becoming the next OpenAI. It’s about a philosophical and architectural shift in AI: from centralized to sovereign, from cloud to local, from surveilled to personal . If the cloud giants are Main Street… QVAC might just be the garage. And as any investor knows, revolutions always start in garages. Not 007—But Just as Disruptive: The AI Agents Set to Blow Up Big Tech TD Cowen came out with a report on AI agents…. Not 007, But a New Kind of (AI) Agent.pdf 531.29 KB • PDF File Download I had GPT take a deep dive and pick out some potential winners and losers…. TD Cowen’s latest “Ahead of the Curve” report isn’t just another AI whitepaper. It’s a warning—and an opportunity. The AI revolution is entering Act II . Act I was chatbots. Basic assistants. LLMs with shiny UIs. ❝ Act II? That’s where autonomous AI agents step in. And it’s going to rewrite the value chain across enterprise software, semiconductors, cybersecurity, and cloud. This isn’t science fiction. It’s coming fast—and if you’re only betting on Nvidia, you’re missing the real play. 1. What Are AI Agents—and Why Now? Unlike static chatbots, AI agents act with intent. They can: Read your email Draft a contract Check the CRM Ping your Slack And then execute—all without asking permission They’re dynamic, self-learning, and goal-driven. By 2028, TD Cowen expects AI agents to make 15% of all business decisions —autonomously. The real breakthrough? They no longer require heavy infrastructure. As Cowen puts it: software companies—not just chipmakers—are becoming the center of the GenAI economy . 2. The $51 Billion Boom Cowen forecasts Agentic AI software spend to surge from $3.4B in 2025 to $51.5B in 2028 —a compound annual growth rate over 100%. This is bigger than the rise of SaaS. Bigger than the mobile cloud wave. More importantly, the “value capture” is shifting up the stack —from GPUs to the software orchestration layer. Who controls the workflows, APIs, and integrations will win. 3. Strategic Implications Chip Demand Is Still Hot , but agent execution shifts compute closer to the edge , creating opportunities for AMD, Qualcomm, and ARM-based systems. Enterprise Software Becomes a Gold Mine : Companies that own CRM, HR, workflow, and IT automation layers will embed agents—then upsell at scale. Cybersecurity Must Evolve : Agents create unpredictable behavior—endpoint and identity vendors will be critical gatekeepers. 4. The Winners & Losers Ticker Company Rating Why It Wins or Loses MSFT Microsoft 10/10 Azure + Copilot + Office agent dominance across workplace stack. NOW ServiceNow 9/10 Workflow automation and ITSM—perfect landing zone for agent tech. ORCL Oracle 9/10 AI agents atop ERP and OCI stack = margin expansion engine. SNOW Snowflake 8/10 Data cloud + AI agent orchestration = next-gen analytics fabric. DDOG Datadog 8/10 Observability for agents—especially in multi-agent, dynamic flows. DT Dynatrace 8/10 Same play as DDOG—adds smart telemetry for agent coordination. NVDA NVIDIA 8/10 Still central, but value shifting to higher in the stack. AMD AMD 7/10 Cheaper inference at the edge—a big win as agent use grows. AVGO Broadcom 7/10 Custom silicon for on-prem agents and networking. CRDO Credo 6/10 Infrastructure exposure; may benefit as agents strain backhaul. INTC Intel 4/10 Legacy stack, underwhelming AI roadmap. Will lag agentic wave. 5. Private Company Takeover Watchlist TD Cowen highlights several early-stage agent startups as likely M&A targets: Anysphere, Codeium, Cognition AI – code-gen agents Aisera, Kore.ai – IT and support automation Glean, Sema4, Relevance AI – enterprise search and contextualized agents Expect acquisition waves in the next 12–18 months as public software vendors race to bolt agentic tech into their platforms. 6. GPTs Playbook Overweight: MSFT, ORCL, NOW, DDOG – they’ll own the agent layer in every Fortune 1000 business. Build Positions In: SNOW, DT – smart observability is the only way to tame agentic chaos. Speculative Add: AMD – agent-driven inference is light compute, not heavy training. Watch for M&A: Keep a sidecar portfolio of private AI agent names, or bet on accelerators with access to them. Bottom Line GenAI wasn’t the finish line—it was Act I . What comes next is a software war—fought not in data centers, but in workflows. The companies who train, deploy, and orchestrate AI agents will capture the next $50B in value. So forget chatbots. The real money will be made by the firms that build and control the AI agents replacing your employees. And this time, they won’t need a license to kill—they’ll just need a Slack login and a memory buffer. How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before you go how I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. 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