유틸리티 2025: AI 전력 확보 및 재기지 거래

Utilities 2025: The AI Power Grab and the Re-Base Trade THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Utilities 2025: The AI Power Grab and the Re-Base Trade Utilities 2025: The AI Power Grab and the Re-Base Trade Sep 30, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now ⚡ Utilities 2025: The AI Power Grab and the Re-Bas … Executive Takeaways 🧠 --- H.E.A.T. Scoreboard (12–24 mo view) Who Underperforms (For Now) 📈 Portfolio Blueprint 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now All the momentum names that got crushed last week came back yesterday. Especially noteworthy was crypto and crypto related names….. Bitcoin pulled an undercut and rally at it’s 50 day and is trying to hold this morning. If you are a trader that’s a good level to trade off, or that support around 108-110k. Same with Ethereum around it’s 10 day MA….. Speaking of crypto and crypto related….. — # (# ) Oil and gas stocks pulled back, but EQT in natural gas continued to move up. Again, I was prefer the natural gas names to the oil and gas names….. In other real asset names, FCX looks like it’s trying to come back…… If you are looking for an entry spot, that 38.34 low would be my best bet. No, it’s so disliked because it sucks…. This investment strategy is so disliked — it’s probably a winner for the next decade Why a 60/40 portfolio is likely to beat the S&P 500 through 2035 at least. www.marketwatch.com/story/this-stock-and-bond-strategy-is-so-disliked-and-its-probably-your-best-investment-move-for-the-next-10-years-3759fdf2?mod=home_lead In today’s webinar I will go over why, and alternatives. Looking more and more like we will have a government shutdown. As I said yesterday, I am not worried about it from a market perspective, but there is this :)…… Jim Cramer explains why he thinks a government shutdown won't have a big impact on the market CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday told investors why he believes that a government shutdown won't have a major effect on the market. www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/jim-cramer-says-government-shutdown-wont-have-a-big-impact-on-the-market.html ⚡ Utilities 2025: The AI Power Grab and the Re-Base Trade AI Data Centers Are Sending Power Bills Soaring Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers. That’s being passed on to customers. www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-electricity-prices/?srnd=homepage-americas Executive Takeaways Data center demand = the new rate-base rocket. Hyperscaler load is forcing utilities to accelerate generation + T&D capex. Guidance “re-bases” (6–8% → 7–9%) are the cleanest tell. Investor debate: Who prints 8–9% CAGR next? Street expectations are now squarely focused on CNP, WEC, XEL, EVRG alongside prior rebasing leaders NI, AEE, and LNT. Merchants remain torque. Tight power markets and firm/clean attributes mean CEG, VST, NRG, and TLN continue to out-earn as hyperscaler PPAs proliferate. Valuation bifurcation is extreme. Premium names without a credible re-base (AEP, some gas LDCs) underperform. California names (PCG/EIX) still trade at 40%+ discounts, but wildfire regimes are improving. Catalyst calendar (next 3–6 months): 3Q earnings + EEI guidance raises, Point Beach nuclear renegotiation (WEC/NEE/customers), CNP Analyst Day, Comanche Peak nuclear deal, and merchant PPA announcements. 🧠 --- H.E.A.T. Scoreboard (12–24 mo view) Ticker Rating Why Now Key Catalysts NI 🔥 9/10 (Buy) Clear line-of-sight to 8%+ CAGR with GenCo progress + first hyperscale DC announcement; Indiana regime constructive. GenCo proceeding; DC MOU → definitive offtake; capex uplift. CNP 🔥 8.5/10 (Buy) Strongest setup into EEI; consensus expects re-base to 7–9% and effective ~9% CAGR visibility into 2030+. Analyst Day; Ohio sale; Houston gas looping + 765kV transmission. AEE 🔥 8.5/10 (Buy) Under-owned rebasing story; FY26 guide reset off higher base. MO/IL T&D + transmission tailwinds. FY26 guide; incremental TX lines; EEI capex tone. LNT 🔥 8.5/10 (Buy) Conservative stewards with room to lift top-end; DC/renewables mix can take CAGR above current guide. Faster-than-top-end commentary; project list adds; EEI tone. CEG 🔥 8.5/10 (Buy) Best-in-class clean baseload; premium hyperscaler PPAs + nuclear floors support multi-year CF compounding. Long-term PPAs; nuclear restarts; policy/tax clarity. VST 🔥 8.5/10 (Buy) ERCOT merchant leverage + AI scarcity pricing; nuclear optionality. Data-center contracts; Comanche Peak timeline. NRG 🔥 8/10 (Buy) Retail + generation spread optionality; AI load boosts spark spreads. Retail margins; incremental DC PPAs; buybacks. TLN 🔥 8/10 (Buy) Merchant renewables + storage with hyperscaler PPAs; benefits from scarcity premia. PPA announcements; storage spreads; guidance raise. WEC ✅ 7.5/10 (Show-me/Buy on dips) At premium multiples; Street expects 7.5–8% CAGR. Needs to deliver Point Beach renegotiation + DC growth. Point Beach terms; fall update cadence; DC queue visibility. XEL ✅ 7.5/10 (Show-me) Capex outlook rising toward 13%+ rate base CAGR; potential to justify ~9% EPS CAGR if wildfire settlements manageable. Rate-base update; EEI tone; wildfire liability clarity. EVRG ✅ 7.5/10 (Watch) 4Q candidate for a guidance raise; data center exposure could lift expectations. 4Q outlook; DC MOUs; rate-base trajectory. AEP ⚠️ 7/10 (Hold) Big capex already telegraphed; Street no longer expects 6–8% CAGR to rise. Transmission awards; load growth signals. DTE / ETR ⚖️ 7/10 (Core Holds) Solid regulated compounders; less catalytic near-term than peers. Capex updates; renewable procurement; EEI tone. NEE ⚖️ 7/10 (Hold) Still the scale developer with safe-harbor pull-forwards; Investor Day delay caps near-term rerate. Contracting updates; devco tax shield; DC JV chatter. PCG / EIX 🟡 7.5/10 (High-risk, high-reward) 40%+ P/E discounts vs peers; wildfire fund/liability protections improving. Skew positive if CPUC pragmatic. EEI tone; wildfire regime updates; equity sentiment. Who Underperforms (For Now) Richly valued regulateds without DC catalysts (5.5–6.5/10): If you can’t credibly lift to 7–9% CAGR, you’re funding others’ rerates. Gas LDC-heavy names with minimal electrification upside (~6/10): Load growth math weaker; potential policy headwinds. 📈 Portfolio Blueprint Core regulated rebasing (45–55%) : NI, AEE, LNT, add CNP as upgraded core Buy. AI-power torque (25–35%) : CEG, VST, NRG, TLN (merchant PPAs/nuclear). Special situations (10–15%) : PCG/EIX for high-risk rerate, selectively WEC/XEL/EVRG if guidance re-bases at EEI/4Q. Dry powder (5–10%) : Hold back for post-EEI upgrades and nuclear headlines (Point Beach, Comanche Peak). The utilities trade has flipped: the winners are the names that lift guidance into 7–9% EPS growth on the back of data-center demand . Own the rebasing regulateds (NI, AEE, LNT, CNP) and the merchant cash engines (CEG, VST, NRG, TLN); keep WEC/XEL/EVRG as “show-me” optionality into EEI. The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover Tue, Sep 30, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT -Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead - How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes - 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market - How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns - Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns - 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds Click Below to Register The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover register.gotowebinar.com/register/2237592374108794972 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is Energy Fuels (UUUU)….. This stock gives you exposure to uranium and rare earths. It’s down big pre market on a convertible offering. Watch the 10 day moving average for possible support. 📬 --- In Case You Missed It We talked about stablecoins yesterday…… Visa Bets on Stablecoins to Speed up Cross-Border Payments money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-09-30/visa-bets-on-stablecoins-to-speed-up-cross-border-payments ❝ "Stablecoins are moving from crypto gimmick to financial plumbing. It's one of the reasons we launched an inverse regional bank exchange-traded fund as I think the regionals are in trouble," said Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, referring to a fund designed to profit when regional bank stocks decline. 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0