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Themes Never Sleep Pal THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Themes Never Sleep Pal Themes Never Sleep Pal Daily 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Your Financial GPS Matthew Tuttle Jun 10, 2025 Subscribe now Share I will be at the Wealth Management Edge Conference in Florida through Thursday so the newsletter will be back Friday. If you are down there look me up. In Today’s Issue: The Rebel Finance Podcast Team on Quasar Market’s Podcast Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF Scott and I talking to The Korea Economic Daily talking about the next investment themes Our Next Webinar— - Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Themes Never Sleep Pal WWDC Was a Cautious AI Update, Not a Breakout Moment Crypto Treasury Craze: Could It Be the Next Big Wave? Flowserve’s Big Swing: Why the Market Missed the Forest for the Trees The LA Riots & Deportation Surge: A Shot of Adrenaline for GEO & CXW? and more…….. — # (# ) Scott and I talking to The Korea Economic Daily talking about the next investment themes…. Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Thu, Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT - Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside - How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does. - My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street To register: register.gotowebinar.com/register/8214490301707453020 Themes Never Sleep Pal Pretty uneventful day unless you were in the top themes we have been talking about. Pre market shaping up to be uneventful as well but the drones look to be strong again and Bitcoin is ramping again. Today we talk about AAPL, Crypto Treasury, FLS, and why I’m back in GEO and CXW. — # (# ) Covered my TSLA short, made a couple of bucks, but this is still a target rich environment, no reason to reach for trades that don’t work. Don’t disagree with Jefferies here…. ❝ POSITIONING (EQUITIES V CREDIT) : US Equity positioning still remains light (+2.4 on a scale of -10 to +10 for US equities). Which implies path of least resistance should still be higher as long as labour market resilience remains. Though Mohit notes that credit positioning at +5.1 (on a scale of -10 to +10 which is  approaching levels suggesting that the scope for further rally is limited Jefferies Daily Macro CPI and PPI are this week…… ‘Inflation Week’ Kicks Off as Global Stocks Surge to Record www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-week-global-stocks-record-f8d8d7b3?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 Still think bonds suck from an asymmetrical and hedging standpoint….. — # (# ) Apologies to anyone who tailed me in ONDS, secondaries happen. May actually by the dip today….. Equity Offering Notification – Ondas Holdings Inc. Issuer: Ondas Holdings Inc. Expected Ticker / Exchange: ONDS / NASDAQ Type of Offering: Confidentially Fully Marketed Follow-On Offering Security Description: Shares of Common Stock (or Pre-Funded Warrants to purchase Common Stock in lieu thereof) (All Primary) Over-Allotment Option: 15% (All Primary) Last Sale (06/09/2025): $1.68 Company Description: Ondas Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) is a leading provider of private wireless, drone, and automated data solutions through its subsidiaries Ondas Networks Inc. (“Ondas Networks”), Ondas Autonomous Systems Inc., (“OAS”), which wholly-owns Airobotics Ltd., (“Airobotics”), and American Robotics, Inc., (“American Robotics”). Ondas Networks provides wireless connectivity solutions. OAS provides drone and automated data solutions through its subsidiaries Airobotics and American Robotics. Ondas Networks and OAS together provide users in defense, homeland security, and critical infrastructure markets with improved connectivity, data collection capabilities, and data collection and information processing capabilities. Use of Proceeds: The Company intends to use the net proceeds of this offering for general corporate purposes, including funding capital expenditures and providing working capital. ⚙️ WWDC Was a Cautious AI Update, Not a Breakout Moment I have been out of AAPL for a while and will probably stay out for now. I used to think it was one of the obvious winners from AI, still can be, but you have to execute. I had GPT take a deep dive on their WWDC keynote….. Apple unveiled enhancements—like live phone-translation, redesigned “liquid glass” interfaces, improved call and message filtering, a new Apple Intelligence Foundation Models framework, and ChatGPT code integration in Xcode. But the much-anticipated Siri overhaul remains delayed, and investors pounced immediately. AAPL dropped ~2.5% during the keynote, wiping out ~$75 billion in market value. ⏳ Left in the Dust: Apple’s AI Pace vs. Peers Competitors like Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI are aggressively pushing cloud-based generative AI. Apple’s focus on device-based privacy stacks—orchestrating smaller updates—has investors wondering if it's simply moving too slowly . Thomas Monteiro of Investing.com captured it: “Clock is ticking faster every day for Apple” reuters.com . Technical pressure worsened the mood: AAPL slipped below its 100‑ and 200‑hour moving averages, signaling vulnerability forexlive.com . ✅ Earnings Outlook: Buy, Hold, or Sell? Apple remains a cash-rich behemoth with a loyal install base and ecosystem strength. But with the stock flat-lined this year, and AI now the marquee battleground, the lack of bold AI news carries real weight. Bull Case (6/ • 10) : Apple’s AI is disciplined—on-device, private, integrated. Features like call‑screening, live translation, and developer APIs (Foundation Models + Xcode ChatGPT core) are building blocks reuters.com . Bear Case (4/ • 10) : Siri delays, lack of significant AI breakthroughs, and a $45 billion stock drop are signs Apple is outpaced. Reuters, Barron’s, Forbes predict Apple may be forced into AI M&A to catch up . 🧭 Verdict: Hold, With Caution Recommendation : Moderate Hold. You can argue Apple is laying essential groundwork. But if you're watching AI acceleration, the window may close this year. AAPL is no longer a clear long-term outperformer without strategic pivot. Catalysts to watch : Momentum in Apple Intelligence features: Siri’s 2026 comeback, public Foundation-model tools. Developer uptake and new partner integrations. Major AI acquisition or deeper OpenAI/Google partnerships. 📌 Talking Points "WWDC delivered pragmatic upgrades, but no AI breakthrough—market sold off $75B in minutes." "Apple remains private-by-design—Siri 2.0 was deferred to 2026. That matters in a cloud-fueled AI race." "They gave developers APIs—Foundation Models and ChatGPT in Xcode—that's solid, but not a headline grabber." "If Siri fails to catch up to Google and Azure bots soon, investors will demand a bold move—like an M&A play." "Technicals are weakening: broke below 100- and 200-hour moving averages—could mean short-term pressure." Ratings & Outlook Growth Potential (long-term) : 7/10—core ecosystem and cash buffer intact. AI Innovation : 5/10—catch-up mode, lacks killer feature. Risk to Reengage : Dependent on next 12 months—if Siri returns and dev uptake accelerates, reentry may satisfy. 🚀 Crypto Treasury Craze: Could It Be the Next Big Wave? Businesses Are Bingeing on Crypto, Dialing Up the Market’s Risks About 60 companies with no prior ties to the crypto market have embraced the so-called bitcoin treasury strategy popularized by Michael Saylor www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-company-balance-sheets-16a1e2b8?mod=finance_lead_pos5 I got out of almost all my exposure when Bitcoin was looking toppy, now that it’s back I am going to be revisiting this theme. I will be on the Schwab Network at 8:40AM talking GME earnings, which I think needs Bitcoin treasury. I had GPT take a deep dive on this article…. A tidal wave of companies—around 60 new entrants—are pivoting into what may be the boldest corporate finance experiment of our time: turning lockbox balance sheets into digital gold vaults wsj.com . The blueprint? Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy—a formerly stodgy software firm transformed into the largest public custodian of Bitcoin. But beware: in the high-wire world of corporate Bitcoin, few treasuries are built for turbulence. 🥇 Best in Class: Flywheel Leaders MicroStrategy (MSTR) – 10/10 The original. Over 580,000 BTC , loyal base of investors, relentless capital raises to feed the machine. It’s the gold standard. GameStop (GME) – 7/10 A meme‑stock survivor turned crypto acolyte. Recently raised $500M to add BTC to the treasury. Wild card—but backed by bold execution. Trump Media (DJT) – 6/10 Twitter‑style drama meets crypto grandstanding. Announced a mammoth $2.5B raise to support BTC purchases. High volatility equals high stakes. 🚫 Copycats Without the Engine: Danger Zone SharpLink Gaming, K‑Wave Media – 3/10 These newcomers showed stock‑spiking announcements—only to suffer sharp drops (e.g., SharpLink fell 28%) wsj.com . Hype without resilience. Other non‑crypto entrants – 2-4/10 Roughly 60 new entrants chasing the treasury meme treasuries.bitbo.iowsj.com . With Bitcoin trading at fresh highs near $110k+\$110k+$110k+ , many are underwater if BTC falls just 15% – a reality nearly half may face . ⚖️ The Risks: Voltage vs. Volatility Stock–Crypto Disconnect : Companies issuing debt or convertible securities risk margin calls and forced liquidations in a downturn—a “fast-moving waterfall” . Reputation Roulette : Firms lured in for short-term stock pops may exit at the first sign of trouble, leaving shareholders with a aftershock. Regulatory Wildcards : While the “GENIUS” stablecoin and crypto‑friendly moves under Trump ease the path , private‑sector ledger holders come under new scrutiny—as GAAP and SEC begin carving out definitions for crypto-heavy treasuries . 🧭 Verdict: Winners, Losers, and Strategic Edge Category Company Rating Rationale Flywheel Crypto MicroStrategy (MSTR) 10/10 Institutional, experienced, vault-size treasuries, supportive investors. Meme-Crypto Hybrid GameStop (GME) 7/10 Brave pivot, strong brand, but execution risk and regulatory headwinds. High-profile Collections Trump Media (DJT) 6/10 Flashy raise, but tied to volatile politics and strategy-execution risk. Reactive Newcomers SharpLink, K-Wave etc. 2–4/10 Boom-bust buzz; lack institutional backing, liquidity, or clear roadmap. 💡 Strategic Recommendations ✅ Build core positions in "flywheel" leaders like MicroStrategy that exemplify long-term discipline, supported by loyal stakeholders. 👍 Keep a speculative sleeve small for managed-risk plays like GameStop—high volatility, bigger payoff if the crypto mania sticks—but tread carefully. ❌ Avoid churn from peripheral copycats that promise rockets but lack substance—most will fizzle once Bitcoin hiccups. 🔭 Bigger Picture: Is This a Sustainable Trend? Yes—corporate balance sheets morphing into crypto treasuries are now a structural theme , not a mere fad . Standard Chartered projects that corporates could inject $330 billion into Bitcoin by 2029 businessinsider.com . But this wave will only carry the savvy, cash-rich, politically-aligned players who build the flywheel... not the headline riders. If Bitcoin stumbles, expect two-tier fallout: giants survive and consolidate; the rest crash and burn. ⚙️ Flowserve’s Big Swing: Why the Market Missed the Forest for the Trees FLS is one of my AI infrastructure holdings and it got crushed last week on a merger announcement with Chart Industries…… It held the 50 day so I didn’t stop out and actually bought the dip. Last night Oppenheimer issued a report on the merger. I had GPT take a deep dive….. Flowserve (FLS) just announced one of the most consequential industrial combinations of the decade—and the market yawned. In fact, shares dropped nearly 4% on the day of the announcement. But here’s the thing… That selloff might be your entry opportunity . This isn’t just another bolt-on. This is a transformational deal that turns Flowserve into a diversified, global industrial powerhouse—exactly the kind of play that thrives under Trump’s "build it here, fuel it here" energy doctrine and the global push for clean and efficient infrastructure. 🛠️ The Deal: What You Need to Know Transaction : All-stock merger of equals with Chart Industries (GTLS) . Implied EV of $19B , $8.8B LTM revenue, and $1.9B EBITDA (22% margin). Accretive Year 1 : Synergies expected to drive earnings upside in years 2 and 3. Targeted synergies are both cost and revenue-based. Combined ownership : 53.5% Chart shareholders, 46.5% Flowserve—this is a real merger of equals, not a disguised acquisition. 📈 Strategic Rationale: It Just Makes Sense Oppenheimer’s report gets it right— this deal is strategically elegant : Complementary Product Portfolios : Flowserve is a leader in pumps and flow control. Chart dominates in cryogenic systems and specialty gas handling. Together, they create an unmatched portfolio. Diversification : The legacy concern for FLS—too much exposure to traditional energy—is directly addressed. The new entity will get 16% of sales from clean energy and over 50% from international markets. Aftermarket Muscle : A combined 42% of revenues will come from aftermarket sales—high-margin, recurring revenue that smooths out cycles and funds innovation. Balance Sheet Strength : Flowserve’s financial stability gives the combined company room to breathe and reinvest. ⚠️ Execution Risk: Yes, But Overpriced The market's kneejerk reaction stems from one word: integration . Execution risk is real—integrating two global industrials with different cultures, backlogs, and operating models isn’t easy. But Oppenheimer makes a key point: the two companies already know each other well , having worked together in the field. This isn’t forced marriage; it’s a logical progression of an existing partnership. 🧮 The Numbers: Time to Tune In Oppenheimer holds its EPS estimates flat for now ($3.22 in FY25, $3.65 in FY26), excluding any Chart contribution before the deal closes. That’s a smart move—clarity will come over the next two quarters. But here’s what the market is missing: post-synergy EBITDA margins of 22% on $9B of sales mean this company is moving toward best-in-class industrial profitability , particularly when 380bps of revenue volatility gets smoothed out. That alone could merit a multiple rerating if integration goes even modestly well. 📊 FLS Investment Case: Rating 8/10 Factor Rating (1– • 10) Commentary Strategic Fit 9/10 High industrial logic, end-market synergy, complementary geography. Balance Sheet Flexibility 8/10 Room for additional M&A and capex after integration. Integration Risk 6/10 Manageable with known partner, but timeline uncertainty remains. Market Mispricing Opportunity 9/10 Market is treating this as dilutive near term when it’s accretive by design. AI/Energy Transition Tailwind 8/10 Flow control + cryo systems = perfect picks-and-shovels for hydrogen, SMRs, and LNG. 🧭 Final Take: If You Missed This Trade, Reconsider Flowserve now has the makings of a next-gen industrial compounder . It’s building the piping, pumping, and cooling systems that AI data centers, hydrogen hubs, LNG terminals, and small modular reactors will all need. And it’s on sale. The market gave you a mispriced gift. The risk is that FLS doesn’t execute. But the upside? A real shot at mid-teens EPS growth with multiple expansion —something rare in old-school industrials. If you’re bullish on AI infrastructure, U.S. reshoring, energy transition, or Trump’s heavy industrial focus—FLS is a buy. The LA Riots & Deportation Surge: A Shot of Adrenaline for GEO & CXW? GEO was the only “Trump” stock I bought prior to the election, figuring it wasn’t going to zero regardless of what happened. It worked out way better than I could have expected but came crashing down when the administration started using Guantanamo and El Salvador…… CXW I’ve always looked at as the weaker cousin, it also sold off at the same time but has recovered much better…… CXW just had an undercut and rally at the 50 day and GEO just had one at the 20 day. I’ve also been watching what is going on in LA and wondering if it could have an impact on these stocks. I had GPT take a deep dive…. We’re not just watching civil unrest in Los Angeles—we’re witnessing the beginning of a national policy inflection point . And for private prison operators like GEO Group (GEO) and CoreCivic (CXW) , the recent developments aren’t just noise—they’re signal . Here’s the hard truth: the combination of social chaos , federal resolve , and legal flexibility creates a potent backdrop for the expansion of private detention infrastructure. 🔥 LA Riots: Fuel to the Policy Fire The mass protests in LA were triggered by viral footage of ICE raids at a Koreatown warehouse. But the federal response—swift, unapologetic, and backed by National Guard deployment—revealed the Trump administration’s real message: ❝ “We’re not backing down on deportations.” This is not de-escalation. It’s the policy version of Shock and Awe . And markets should treat it that way. Just as Nixon used rising crime to justify federal crackdowns in the ’70s, the Trump administration is now using visible unrest to justify accelerated immigration enforcement . And that means one thing for GEO and CXW: bed demand is about to go parabolic . 💼 Contract Reality: The Bed Bounty Behind the scenes, DHS and ICE are preparing for a decentralized surge model —more local raids, faster processing, broader detention net. That’s not theoretical. It’s in the latest $45B DHS spending allocation , where bed count expansion and electronic monitoring funding are buried in subclauses. And when the federal government wants to detain people, it doesn’t build new facilities—it contracts . Fast. With GEO and CXW . Even if some detainees are routed through Guantanamo or El Salvador, the domestic enforcement footprint still needs intake infrastructure . You can’t export a human being to El Salvador without processing them through somewhere first—and that somewhere is a GEO or CXW-run facility . 📊 The Surveillance Angle: GEO’s Second Engine Don’t overlook GEO’s hidden growth driver: BI Inc. , its electronic monitoring subsidiary. The chaos in LA and beyond makes ankle bracelets and GPS parole systems more politically palatable than more police. That’s asymmetric upside. It’s a scalable business, high-margin, and increasingly tech-driven—a perfect match for the AI-powered surveillance trend building inside DHS. ⚖️ What About the Risks? Yes, there’s always political headline risk —activist lawsuits, local injunctions, media outrage. But what we saw in LA was different: the administration did not flinch . That’s key. When the federal government chooses order over optics , the private detention contractors become not just politically acceptable—but operationally necessary . 💡 Expert Opinion: The Bull Case Is Strengthening Verdict: Bull case upgraded. LA confirms the policy resolve, not weakens it. If you believe in Trump’s re-election enforcement theme, this is your signal . GEO is the better-positioned play, thanks to its dual exposure (facilities + surveillance). CXW follows close behind. Short-term pullbacks are buys , especially ahead of the next enforcement wave. Rating (Post-LA Riot Adjustment): GEO : ↑ from 8 to 9/10 CXW : ↑ from 7 to 8/10 📌 Action Steps Re-initiate positions if you took profits earlier in the year. Use options to express directional conviction ahead of Q3 DHS contract reports. Monitor local government pushback , but don’t overweigh it unless federal funding shifts. How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. 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