새로운 TACO 거래?테헤란은 항상 겁을 먹습니다

The New TACO Trade? Tehran Always Chickens Out THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts The New TACO Trade? Tehran Always Chickens Out The New TACO Trade? Tehran Always Chickens Out Daily 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Your Financial GPS Matthew Tuttle Jun 23, 2025 Subscribe now Share Waller Looking for a Job?….US Strikes Iran, Market Yawns…Asymmetric Plays in Oil Companies and SPACs…Could Gold Triple From Here?….Is It Time to Look at Bitcoin Miners…The Real Opportunity in GLP-1s Markets were slightly down last week, but there are still opportunities all over the place, if you know where to look. The weakness could be blamed on a trifecta of reasons: Middle East tensions, FOMC fallout, or triple witching volatility. But the bigger takeaway is this — the market’s coiled, not collapsing. And it’s looking for a spark. 💣 That spark could be the Fed. If Powell cuts faster than the market expects, the drift ends. But there’s palace intrigue too: Waller’s recent positioning sounds a lot like a man angling for the top job. — # (# ) Of course a broader Middle Eastern war may put a cloud over things this week. — # (# ) Interestingly, as I write this futures are green and oil is basically flat….. ❝ Tensions in the ME have escalated with US bombing key Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. Market is now waiting to see how Iran reacts. Current market open suggests that base case is for a token response which will allow Iran to claim a counter-attack but with the aim of de-escalation. Key would be whether Iran would (or could) close the strait of Hormuz and disrupt global oil supply. With US and Israel planes reported to have almost clear access to Iran's airspace, the closure of the strait would be practically impossible. Mohit Kumar, Jefferies Why Hasn’t Israel Attacked Iran’s Oil Exports? Restraint Is a Threat. www.barrons.com/articles/why-hasnt-israel-attacked-irans-oil-exports-restraint-is-a-threat-e90cc415?mod=hp_FEEDS_1_ENERGY_1 This is the Million Dollar question and the one thing Don Duret pointed out in our podcast last week that could throw the world into a recession and knock the market down. As Barron’s put it, the restraint is strategic. But if that restraint breaks, oil doesn’t just go to $100 — it goes nuclear. Supply chain shocks, inflation flare-ups, and military escalation are all on the table. Speaking of oil, this caught my eye… Chevron and Exxon Are the Next Hot AI Stocks. Here’s Why. www.barrons.com/articles/chevron-exxon-stock-price-ai-75ca981b?mod=hp_FEEDS_1_ENERGY_4 🔥 Why XOM and CVX Could Be Asymmetric AI Power Plays Most investors still see CVX and XOM as dinosaurs. But a closer look reveals they may be the most mispriced AI infrastructure plays on the planet . You already know I’ve been bullish on AI’s impact on energy infrastructure — with a focus on natural gas, nuclear, and geothermal . What I missed, and what this article clarified, is just how deeply embedded Chevron and Exxon are in natural gas production and scalable power infrastructure . They’re not just digging for oil — they’re laying the foundation for dispatchable power in the AI era. Yes, their recent rallies were war-driven. But once the fog clears, don’t be surprised if the market re-rates them like power providers — not oil dinosaurs. Defense stocks look strong this morning. Long term readers know I am a fan of the mid cap names, especially the drones. Not sure I would chase the big names as the wind would get knocked out of them if we get a face saving response from Iran…. ❝ Implications for Defense Stocks: Escalating global conflict translates to defense stock outperformance. ESLT 's revenue base is most weighted into the region w/ 29% of sales to Israel, 27% to Europe, and 22% to N Am in FY24. Missiles & munitions represent 19% of LMT sales through MFC at 7% CAGR to '27 and 13% of LHX sales through AR (Javelin, Stinger, GMLRS, etc) at 6% CAGR to '27. We est NOC 's B2 accts for 500MM of revs or 2% for NOC consistently largely of sustainment w/ an inventory of 20 in Palmdale. Each bomber is est to cost $1.157BB . RTX Raytheon represents 32% of total revs growing at 5% org to '27 w/ applicable products in Patriot, NASAMS, and AMRAAM. BA 's weapons portfolio is $2BB+ of sales + KC46 $2.6BB (loss making) or a total of 20% of BA Defense on our ests this also includes JDAM, Harpoon, SDB-1, etc. NATO is expected to commit to 3.5% of GDP on defense at the upcoming summit from 2% today, which represents $150BB+/yr of incremental procurement, of which historically has been 2/3rds to US products. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jeffries ESLT could be a name I would take a look at though…. The European defense stocks have a tailwind regardless of a broader Middle East war…. ❝ NATO countries have moved to increase defense spending with a long term goal of taking to 5% of GDP. We are typically skeptical of long term goals as goal posts do change, but it is also clear to us that defense spending needs to increase globally and not just for NATO countries. Defence has been one area that we have been bullish on, and we continue to maintain our overweight exposure. Mohit Kumar, Jefferies Invest in Europe’s Aerospace and Defense Future with EUAD Explore growth opportunities in one of Europe's sectors. The Select STOXX® Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, track the total return performance of the STOXX Europe Total Market Aerospace & Defense Index. www.select-funds.com An escalation should be good for Gold, which is currently flat…. 📈 Could Precious Metals Still Double or Triple From Here? Gold and silver have paused — but I’m still long and still bullish. If you caught last week’s podcast, Don Duret laid out the case for 10x upside in select gold names. I don’t make long term price projections, I just trade what I see, which is why I’m in Gold and silver and the miners. I do recommend a long term gold position in my version of the permanent portfolio though. Don and I aren’t the only ones who like gold… — # (# ) If you want gold and bitcoin in one package…… Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf 🔥 SPACs Continue to Be Back Spac revival puts spring in step of investors in New York Blank cheque companies are enjoying a fresh moment in the sun as the traditional IPO market struggles www.ft.com/content/1e094ab3-f3a4-48b0-a901-a860a858294a?sharetype=blocked Chamath’s trying to claw his way back into the SPAC game — and that’s bullish. Say what you want about his DeSPACs, but when the cash-in-trust structure is intact, pre-merger SPACs remain the best asymmetric trade on the board IMHO . A couple of our favorites did well on Friday… — # (# ) Hmmmm. — # (# ) You can try to pick your own SPACs or use an ETF…. SPCX: The SPAC and New Issue ETF www.spcxetf.com SPACs also fit very nicely into our Trump’s Inner Circle theme, which is investing in companies related to the people in Trump’s inner circle and investing in companies that benefit from his executive orders. Howard Lutnick and Don Jr. are involved with SPACs and there are many SPACs that cover Trump’s favored areas of the market. We are going to cover this, and more on Thursday…. Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine It will be from this Thursday from 2-3PM. Click on the link above to register. I continue to think this Genius Act is huge….. 💥 Why the GENIUS Act, Bitcoin’s surge, and a wave of IPOs just rewired the future of finance—and who wins next Clear Street just dropped a new report and it's a killer…… June 2025 Crypto Monthly Positive Macro Tailwinds Updating.pdf 741.84 KB • PDF File Download We talked about Circle last week, and I’ve talked a lot about crypto Treasury companies. I have not talked a lot about the crypto miners. That’s what’s most interesting about Clear Street’s report……. You know I’ve been pounding the table on crypto treasury companies — but what I haven’t talked about enough is the evolution of crypto miners . These companies — CLSK, RIOT, MARA, CIFR — are morphing from bitcoin miners into AI compute infrastructure providers . Here’s the kicker: despite a brutal hash rate, they’re still posting double-digit BTC production growth . That’s margin compression for the weak — and scale dominance for the strong. 🧠 Updated Ratings from Clear Street: CLSK : Buy – $28 target (raised) CIFR : Buy – $6 (unchanged) RIOT : Buy – $11 (unchanged) MARA : Neutral – $17 (was $ • 16) 💪 The Next Obesity Gold Rush Isn’t in Fat Loss—It’s in Muscle The GLP-1s continue to be my kryptonite this year. I don’t own them in my HEAT Formula trading account at the moment, but do own them in my Permanent Portfolio. LLY has had a tough couple of days…. as has NVO…. TD Cowen came out with an interesting report on Friday with the thinking that the real play is in anti-myostatin…… Anti Myostatin Is Flexing Its Muscles in Obesity.pdf 745.77 KB • PDF File Download According to Cowen, the real money isn’t in losing weight —it’s in keeping the muscle ? There’s a new class of drugs— anti-myostatin therapies —that could not only preserve muscle during weight loss but actually build it? Their conclusion? This is the start of a $30 billion market . And the biggest biotech winners in 2026–2030 might not be who you think. 🧠 The GLP-1 Blind Spot GLP-1s work. No debate there. They suppress appetite, slow digestion, and make people feel full longer. Clinical trials have shown 20–25% total weight loss , rivaling bariatric surgery. But here’s the dirty secret no one talks about: ❝ Up to 40% of the weight lost with GLP-1s is lean mass —not fat. That means you’re losing muscle and bone as fast as you’re losing your gut. That’s where anti-myostatin therapies come in. According to TD Cowen, this could be a $30B+ market — preserving lean mass during weight loss and building strength. Imagine a world where you pair GLP-1 for fat loss with myostatin inhibition for muscle retention . This is no longer theoretical: LLY and REGN are already running combo trials. BHVN is the asymmetric play no one's watching. 🏆 Potential Winners: LLY : GLP-1 king + muscle trials REGN : Cytokine wizardry + clear lean-mass science BHVN : Cheap ticket into the muscle future The next leg of the obesity trade isn’t about shrinking — it’s about staying strong. GLP-1 was just the start. Myostatin is the muscle money. How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. 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