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The Market Continues to Impress THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts The Market Continues to Impress The Market Continues to Impress The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle Apr 29, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: The market continues to impress The world needs more copper VST deep dive ORCL deep dive and more…….. Bottom Line : Starting to trust this market a lot more, yesterday could have been bad, but the bulls stepped in. Still adding back equity exposure SLOWLY, I trust this market more, but I still don’t trust it. Brendan Wood TopGun ETF (BWTG)… Outperforms the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq... Calm In The Tarrif Storm April 25th 2025 Despite severe tariff headwinds BWTG's global portfolio of TopGun* companies outperforms again. This time not for the 42% rate of return achieved in its first fair weather year but for its exceptional calm and resiliency in turbulent adverse markets. Even negative Morningstar ranked BWTG in its first percentile of performance year to date. The portfolio aims to compete more effectively for capital in good and bad times by selecting TopGun companies. Namely, those companies in highest demand by professional investors based upon their investment qualities. BWTG sticks to the Brendan Wood Worldwide Shareholder Network which informs its choice of TopGun investment targets. *TopGun Companies are selected based upon +/- 2000 personal consultations with large cap global portfolio managers who rate 1400 big cap issuers against multiple investment quality criteria. The top scoring two percent are designated TopGuns. YTD Rate of Return (Market Price) (Source Bloomberg): BWTG =  +0.1% (As of April 15th) DOW Jones = -4.75% (As of April 15th) S&P 500  = -8.09% (As of April 15th) Nasdaq = -12.84% (As of April 15th) S ource: Bloomberg. The chart shows performance of the BWTG ETF (at market price), the S&P 500 Index, the Dow Jones Index and the Nasdaq Index, since the ETF's inception of 11/9/23 to 04/15/2025. The S&P 500 Index represents the stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and it is not possible to invest in them directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. To see full performance data. The performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. For the most recent quarter-end performance, please call 416-924-8110 or visit the Fund’s website at www.brendanwoodtopgunetf.com . Returns less than one year are not annualized. Short term performance, in particular, is not a good indication of the fund’s future performance, and an investment should not be made based solely on returns. ETF performance presented by the market price does not include sales charges and investment performance would be lower if investor fees were deducted, The total annual expense ratio for the ETF is .95%. Market performance is the price at which shares in the ETF can be bought or sold on the exchanges during trading hours, while the net asset value (NAV) represents the value of each share's portion of the fund's underlying assets and cash at the end of the trading day. Next Webinar: Tariffs, Inflation, and Recession: What To Do Now 5/22 2pm EST GoTo Webinar dashboard.gotowebinar.com/webinar/6733673538207782492 News & Noise 🧠 News: — # (# ) — # (# ) — # (# ) — # (# ) I think physical AI is going to be massive…. — # (# ) I often talk about how the biggest beneficiary of AI is likely to be biotech…. — # (# ) Essay from Ray….. — # (# ) — # (# ) OpenAI Lets Users Go Shopping With ChatGPT, Challenging Google OpenAI now lets users shop for products within ChatGPT, the latest move by the artificial intelligence startup to expand the reach of its popular chatbot and challenge rivals like Google. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-28/openai-lets-users-go-shopping-with-chatgpt?srnd=homepage-americas Alibaba Rolls Out Latest Flagship AI Model in Post-DeepSeek Race Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. took the wraps off a new version of its flagship Qwen AI model, sustaining the breakneck pace of development that’s characterized China’s artificial intelligence sphere in the wake of DeepSeek. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-28/alibaba-rolls-out-latest-flagship-ai-model-in-post-deepseek-race ❌ Noise: What Wall Street Is Saying Stifel….. ❝ Four of the Mag 7: META (Wed AMC) MSFT (Wed AMC) AAPL (Thurs AMC) AMZN (Thurs AMC) with all eyes on tariff impacts and the health of the consumer. Based on results thus far, META and AMZN ad trends should hold up through 1Q ( GOOGL beat); Cloud ( GCP met) was guided to improve at MSFT though inflection from increased capacity more 4Q (though Brad is now calling for 2H decel, aligned with buyside) while AWS growth has been stable the past 3 qtrs. (+ SNOW MDB DDOG CFLT FROG ESTC ). With MSFT and AMZN both pointing to capacity constraints last qtr (and GOOGL again this qtr) capex seems likely to be reiterated though with continued commentary on optimizing/reallocation of spend vs reports of cuts. (+ CLS COHR LITE CRDO MRVL ALAB MPWR ). AMZN ’s e-com outlook will be important to gauge the health of consumer (our analyst believes their broad based revs will hold up better than peers) and well as actions/planned actions to counter tariffs and potential increased headwinds on competitors (removal of de-minimis exemptions). ( EBAY Wed AMC, W Thurs BMO) AAPL has reportedly benefitted from some pull ins and the 16e launch, while Chinese sales have reportedly deteriorated. Future sourcing and go to mkt plans will be a key focus. Daniel Motoc, JP Morgan….. ❝ Given the macro backdrop, unsurprisingly, the options market expects earnings volatility to be well above that delivered in recent quarters on average. However, this risk premium has declined over the past couple of weeks as the market rallied, and as companies so far are delivering smaller-than-expected post-earnings moves. Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading….. ❝ With each passing day, it is clearer that there is a scarcity of straight answers in the current atmosphere. The environment is a combination of intentional and unintentional misdirection merged with unintended consequences and a series of yet-to-be-determined events. The U.S. equity market has embraced the “ignorance is bliss” approach to the information vacuum. The Market Continues to Impress — # (# ) Yesterday could have been ugly, just like last Monday, but it wasn’t. The bulls came in and SPY closed slightly positive, that’s now 5 days in a row. I will continue to reiterate what I have been saying, I think the lows are in and I think you should be SLOWLY adding back equity exposure. We are not out of the wood by any means, but one of my favorite sayings is trade based on what you see, not what you think. A lot going on for a flat day, TSLA had it’s first insider buy since 2020. To manage expectations it was a million dollar buy from a multi-billionaire. Interesting move from the stock yesterday, it failed at the 200 day, which could have been a short sale, but it held the 50 day. I did sell some cash covered puts when it came off the bottom, but it has to get above the 200 day or it could end up being a short….. NVDA continued to struggle, yesterday was the Huawei news. At some point this is a buy, I may wait for Mag 7 earnings though….. Gold was up again yesterday, showing some weakness pre market… I still think you should have exposure to gold, silver, and miners. However, I also realize this is the most crowded trade on Wall Street and don’t like the fact that Gold was just on the cover of Barron’s. I would only be adding on dips. TLT was up again yesterday, facing some resistance at the 50 day. As long as the bond vigilantes stay quiet I continue to love this trade….. Bitcoin continues to chug along as well. I think you need to have exposure to Bitcoin and the related stocks…. The World Needs More Copper China’s copper supplies set to run out as US tariffs bite, says Mercuria Market suffers one of ‘greatest tightening shocks’ in its history as traders race to get ahead of potential levies www.ft.com/content/72da3728-906c-4124-8700-841adbe61f18 — # (# ) The T in the --- H.E.A.T. Formula stands for themes, I believe you should always be positioned in today, and tomorrow’s, hot themes. Anyone who has been to my webinars should know the thematic investing hierarchy. You want to first identify the themes, then identify the winners, but those are usually pretty obvious. The next step is identifying the suppliers to the winners. There are two main aspects of AI that are going to need copper, physical AI (robots) and power generation infrastructure. I did a piece on industrial metals a few weeks ago, got stopped out of them, and then got back in. This morning I had GPT take a deep dive on copper….. Copper Deep Dive Tapping the red metal’s bullish setup—from AI robots to grid upgrades—while watching USD and trade risks. 1. Supply Fundamentals Global Production & Reserves: World copper mine output hit 23 Mt in 2024 , led by Chile (5.3 Mt), DRC (3.3 Mt) and Peru (2.6 Mt). Recoverable global reserves stand at ~1.0 billion t, with ~60% concentrated in Chile, Australia, Peru, Russia and the U.S. Nai500 Metal News U.S. Import Dependence: The U.S. covers just over 50% of its refined copper needs from domestic smelters; the rest (~1 Mt/year) is imported mainly from Chile, Canada and Peru. A pending U.S. tariff probe adds geopolitical supply risk. Reuters 2. Demand Drivers AI & Robotics: Morgan Stanley’s “Global Humanoid Model” projects 1 billion robots by 2050 , requiring ~90 Mt of copper (90 kg/robot). That’s over 4× current annual output. Electric Vehicles: With 17.1 million EVs sold in 2024 , and ~83 kg of copper per vehicle, EVs alone added ~1.4 Mt of copper demand in 2024 Rho Motion . Power & Digital Infrastructure: Grid copper demand is set to more than double by 2040 in net-zero scenarios IEA . Data-center electrification (AI/cloud) could lift copper use 6-fold by mid-century BHP . Industrial & Construction: Equipment manufacturing drives ~38% of copper use, followed by construction/infrastructure at ~22% Reuters . 3. Market Dynamics & Technicals Price Action: Copper topped US$5.00/lb in May 2024 on supply fears, then retraced to ~US$4.65/lb as inventories steadied. Technical Signal: The COPX ETF held its 200-week MA , and a weekly MACD cross turned positive—supporting a tactical long entry. 4. Trade & Currency Impact USD Correlation: A weaker dollar (DXY down ~8% YTD) boosts copper priced in USD. Tariff Risk: The U.S. probe into copper imports could spur volatility in near-term flows and premiums Reuters . 5. Outlook & Forecasts Short-Term Balance: The refined market ran a small deficit of 87 kt in 2023 , swung to a modest surplus in 2024, then faces structural deficits of ~820 kt by 2026 as new mine projects lag Metal NewsMINING.COM . Supply-Gap Warning: Trafigura forecasts a 4.5 Mt shortfall by 2030 without rapid project approvals and investment – a potential 35% demand gap Latest news & breaking headlines . 6. Winners & Losers Winners Ticker Rating Rationale Freeport-McMoRan FCX 9/10 Leading pure-play copper miner; low cost base; strong cash flow to fund expansions. Southern Copper SCCO 8/10 High-margin mines in Peru/Mexico; strong balance sheet; attractive scale-up projects. Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX 8/10 Broad, liquid copper-mining exposure; technicals turning bullish. Rio Tinto RIO 7/10 Major copper assets; diversification; upcoming QB2 ramp in Chile. BHP Group BHP 7/10 Large-scale growth projects; strong balance sheet; commodity-cycle leverage. Losers Ticker Rating Rationale USD Bullish Fund UUP 2/10 USD weakness underpins copper; long-USD positioning faces headwinds. Short COPX — 1/10 High risk as market tightens; adverse carry and margin calls likely. Bottom Line: Copper sits at the nexus of AI, electrification and infrastructure; fundamental deficits loom even before factoring in the “Global Humanoid” surge. Technicals and a weaker USD further buoy the case. Pure-play miners (FCX, SCCO, COPX) top our list, while USD bulls and copper shorts rank near the bottom. Deep Dive on VST Going back to the thematic investment hierarchy, a stock like VST provides power for AI. I’ve been in and out a couple of times during this craziness, but am back in. Jeffries just came out with a buy…. Vistra Corp | BUY VST | $129.62 | PT: $145.00  ($151. • 00) | % to PT: +12% I had GPT take a deep dive…. Jefferies’ Bullish Case Buy Rating, PT $145 ex–Data Centers: Jefferies maintains a Buy on VST even after trimming its 2027 EBITDA forecast to $7.15 billion (–2% vs. prior) and cutting its PT to $145 (from $ • 151) to reflect mark-to-market power prices Investing.com . Data Center Optionality: No deals are yet announced, yet the share price has fallen 35% from the January high ( $190), implying little to no data-center value is baked in. Comanche Peak co-location deals in Texas—enabled by Senate Bill 6—could unlock upside once regulatory clarity arrives. Power MTM & Hedges: ERCOT mark-to-market losses trim ~$650 million off 2027 EBITDA, but 40–45% of 2027 generation is hedged, cushioning EBITDA by ~$200 million NVIDIA Blog . Financial & Valuation Highlights Metric Jefferies View Peer (Constellation, CEG) 2027 EBITDA $7.15 bn (–2% Jefferies) ~$6.9 bn consensus FCF Yield ex-Data Centers/Buybacks ~11% ~7% Net Debt / ’24E EBITDA ~4.0× (falling with FCF) ~3.5× Dividend Yield ~4.0% ~3.5% Share Buyback $1 bn/yr through 2026 $0.5 bn/yr Cash Generation: VST forecasts $7 billion+ of extra cash through 2027 (after $2.2 bn growth capex, $800 mn net debt issuance, and $400 mn battery-storage insurance proceeds) NVIDIA Blog . Risk/Reward Skew: At ~11% FCF yield (ex-data centers and buybacks) vs. peers at ~7%, VST offers an attractive entry ahead of its first data-center announcement. Near-Term Catalysts & Risks Catalysts: Q1 results (May • 7) confirming stronger-than-expected hedge performance. Clarity on Comanche Peak data-center legislation/trade-off payments. FERC or ERCOT rulings enabling co-location. Risks: Further power-price softness beyond hedges. Delay or regulatory block on data-center deals. Leverage staying elevated if growth capex spikes. Rating Vistra Energy (VST): 8/10 ❝ Why: Exceptional FCF profile, compelling optionality on data centers, and a steep discount to intrinsic value—tempered by power-price and regulatory execution risk. Bottom Line: Vistra’s cash flow profile and data-center optionality justify a Buy , but given near-term power-price risk and regulatory execution, I’d average in —starting a position at current levels and adding on any pullbacks into the low-$120s. Deep Dive on ORCL — # (# ) ORCL is a stock I don’t currently own, I got stopped out somewhere in the last decline, but it’s on my watchlist as a potential future leader in AI. I do like the chart here, broken back above the 10 and 20 day. Only thing that gives me pause is it’s 20 points off the low. I had GPT take a deep dive….. Quick Take Oracle is pivoting hard into AI-powered cloud services while still monetizing its massive on-premise software business. With thousands of NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs now live in OCI, Barclays believes Q4 revenue—and investor confidence—should get a meaningful boost. Recent Financials Q3 FY25 Total Revenue: $14.1 B, +6% Y/Y (USD), +8% Y/Y (constant currency) Oracle Investor Relations Cloud Revenue (IaaS + SaaS): $6.2 B, +23% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations IaaS (OCI): $2.7 B, +49% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations Applications/SaaS: $3.6 B, +10% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations Remaining Performance Obligations: $130 B backlog, +62% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations Non-GAAP EPS: $1.47, +4% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations Guidance: CEO Safra Catz sees ~15% revenue growth in FY26, driven by AI cloud deals Investopedia AI Catalyst: NVIDIA Partnership Oracle Cloud Infrastructure has “stood up and optimized its first wave of liquid-cooled NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 racks,” deploying thousands of Blackwell GPUs for large-scale training and inference. This makes OCI one of the earliest major clouds to offer Blackwell at scale—key for next-gen reasoning models and agentic AI NVIDIA Blog . Barclays notes that the GB200 rollout: Drives revenue momentum from Q4 onward. Demonstrates genuine tech parity with AWS and Azure. Competitive Positioning Scale & Footprint: OCI remains #4 in cloud share but is the fastest-growing IaaS player at +49% Y/Y Oracle Investor Relations . Backlog Health: $130 B in RPOs gives 6–12 months of visibility. On-Prem + Cloud Hybrid: Exadata Cloud@Customer and multi-cloud Interconnect partnerships help retain legacy customers. Margins at Risk: Heavy CapEx to build AI-optimized data centers is crimping near-term margins; peers warn of pressure as Oracle scales Reuters . Valuation & Risks Forward P/E: ~28× (12-month forward) vs. Microsoft ~32× and Amazon ~37× Reuters . Catalyst Watch: AI cloud adoption, Project Stargate with OpenAI, and continued RPO conversion. Key Risks: Fierce competition (AWS, Azure, GCP), execution on data center rollouts, and license-support growth deceleration. Ratings Metric Rating (1– • 10) Rationale Stock Attractiveness 7/10 Strong cloud growth and AI catalysts, balanced by CapEx headwinds and stiff competition. AI Leadership Potential 7/10 Early GB200 deployment and robust RPOs signal genuine progress—but behind the hyperscalers. Bottom Line: Oracle’s AI-cloud pivot is accelerating—thousands of Blackwell GPUs in OCI validate the thesis that it’s “not far behind” in the generative AI race. Q3 results show healthy growth and backlog, and guidance points to a meaningful revenue inflection. At ~28× forward earnings with visible catalysts, ORCL earns a 7/10 overall score, and its AI leadership chops also merit a 7/10 . You said: would you buy the stock now? ChatGPT said: I’d be a conditional buyer of ORCL here, but I’d prefer to scale in rather than go all-in at $139.85. Here’s why: Valuation vs. Upside: At $139.85, Oracle trades at ~28× FY26 non-GAAP EPS, in line with peers but not cheap. Consensus 12-month price targets sit around $174.42 (≈25% upside) MarketBeat . Earnings Context: Q3 saw 6% Y/Y revenue growth ($14.1 B) and 23% Y/Y cloud growth—but it missed revenue/earnings estimates, denting the stock ~3% on the print Barron's Oracle Investor Relations . AI Catalyst: Early Blackwell GPU (GB200 NVL • 72) deployments in OCI are a real tech differentiator, but the market is already pricing in a big cap-ex ramp for data centers. Buy Signals: A pullback into the $135–$130 area (Piper Sandler’s new $130 PT) would materially de-risk entry and boost your margin of safety Barron's . Confirmation of sustained >20% cloud/IaaS growth in Q4 would likely reignite momentum. Wait For: Any guidance cut or further margin pressure commentary on the next call. Bottom Line: • Long-term hold? Yes—Oracle’s AI-cloud story merits a 7/10 conviction, but patience on price is key. • Near-term trade? I’d accumulate on dips toward the low-$130s rather than buy outright at $140. • Risk Level: Medium—strong catalysts but significant execution & cap-ex risks remain. How did you like today's newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before you go: Here are ways I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Wealth Management-Coming Soon Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0