가치 하락 거래: 법정화폐에 대한 믿음이 실패할 때

The Debasement Trade: When Faith in Fiat Fails THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts The Debasement Trade: When Faith in Fiat Fails The Debasement Trade: When Faith in Fiat Fails Oct 7, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead 🏦 The Debasement Trade: When Faith in Fiat Fails ⚙️ The Setup 💣 Why the Debasement Trade Exists 🧱 What’s Driving It Now ⚖️ Why Gold and Bitcoin Are Winning 🔮 What’s Next 🧩 The Thematic Angle Debasement Portfolio (Example) Two alternates (tune to risk appetite) Guardrails & Playbook Triggers & Scenarios Why this mix works (Debasement Math) 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now AMD gets upgrade after 24% surge. ‘We rarely do this,’ says chagrinned analyst It’s likely the first of many — analysts at Jefferies upgraded Advanced Micro Devices to a buy, after the chipmaker’s stock surged on a pact with ChatGPT maker OpenAI. www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-gets-upgrade-after-24-surge-we-rarely-do-this-says-chagrinned-analyst-565f3cdf?mod=home_lead OpenAI and AMD was the news of the day. This is on the heels of other AI investment deals that have moved individual stocks and the market. The tape told you everything: chips, power, racks, and anything even vaguely “agentic” caught a bid as deal headlines stacked up and the circular financing in AI got louder. OpenAI ↔ $AMD : A multi-year, multi-GW chip deal plus warrants that could hand OpenAI ~10% of AMD if milestones hit. That’s suppliers funding customers who use the cash to buy from the suppliers — the flywheel . The bigger picture : $NVDA investing in AI customers (CoreWeave), OpenAI striking massive commitments with $ORCL, $AVGO, and now $AMD. Even the bulls started using the word “bubbly.” I don’t disagree with Paul Tudor Jones here….. Paul Tudor Jones says ingredients are in place for massive rally before a 'blow off' top to bull market Paul Tudor Jones said today's market is reminiscent of the setup leading up to the burst of the dot-com bubble in late 1999. www.cnbc.com/2025/10/06/paul-tudor-jones-says-ingredients-are-in-place-for-massive-rally-before-a-blow-off-top-to-bull-market.html Which is why we suggest pairing thematic investments with a static hedge. Who knows how/when this ends, but you trade based on what you see, not what you think. Real AI Trade ≠ Apps. It’s Power. Every new “100-billion” AI headline is really a megawatt story — grid ties, transformers, HVDC, thermal. Winners that get paid now : $ETN, $VRT, $HUBB, $POWL (electrical/thermal); $CEG, $VST (dispatchable power); $EQIX, $DLR (interconnect). Chips & fabrics : $NVDA, $AVGO, $ANET still the leadership spine. $AMD back in the game on narrative + warrants. Speculative Heat → Froth Check Money continues to chase unprofitable “AI-halo” themes (hydrogen, quantum, EV charging). We’ve seen this movie: powerful while the music plays; vicious if/when the music stops. Trade them, don’t marry them. Macro I Care About (only because it hits AI) Global curves steepening on Japan’s stimulus pivot and Europe’s fiscal drama. That raises the cost of capital , which matters for long-dated AI buildouts — another reason the power complex is where cash flow lives today . Bottom line: The story of the day wasn’t a single print or a single Fed line — it was the industrialization of AI and the increasingly circular way it’s being financed. Until unit economics catch up, power + racks + interconnect keep getting paid. When the math finally matters, the re-rating goes to the utilization and inference names. Own both sides — and keep a hedge on the levered middle. Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead Thursday October 23rd 2-3PM EST Covered call ETFs are everywhere — and everyone thinks they’ve found a “safe” way to collect yield in a sideways market. The truth? Most of them suck. They cap your upside, mislead investors with “yield” that’s really your own money coming back , and often trail just owning the stock by a mile. Join me for a brutally honest breakdown of how these funds actually work — and what you should be doing instead. What You’ll Learn: 🔥 Why “high yield” covered call ETFs are often just returning your own capital 📉 How most call-writing strategies quietly destroy compounding 🚫 Why owning covered calls in bull markets is like running a marathon in a weighted vest 💡 The simple structure that can fix these problems — and where the real daily income opportunities are hiding Click Here To Register register.gotowebinar.com/register/223734574050559064 🏦 The Debasement Trade: When Faith in Fiat Fails How this popular trade is boosting gold and bitcoin as hedges to a weaker dollar The so-called debasement trade — embraced by individual investors since late 2024 as a hedge to a weaker dollar — could accelerate from here. www.marketwatch.com/story/how-one-of-2025s-most-popular-trades-is-boosting-gold-and-bitcoin-and-may-keep-going-during-the-government-shutdown-a9994256?mod=home_lead Citadel’s Griffin Calls Rush to Gold as Safer Asset ‘Concerning’ Citadel’s Ken Griffin said investors are starting to view gold as a safer asset than the dollar, a development that’s “really concerning” to the billionaire investor. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-06/citadel-s-griffin-calls-rush-to-gold-as-safer-asset-concerning?srnd=homepage-americas ⚙️ The Setup The “currency debasement trade” has officially gone mainstream. What started in late 2024 as a quiet hedge against fiscal insanity has become the defining macro theme of 2025. Gold keeps setting records — 41 this year alone — and bitcoin just blew through $125,000. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down roughly 10% YTD , and the government’s partial shutdown has only accelerated what’s already a structural trend: a slow-motion loss of faith in fiat. This is no longer a goldbug fever dream — it’s the new Wall Street consensus. 💣 Why the Debasement Trade Exists The logic is simple and terrifying: Debt spiral: The U.S. is running deficits of 6–6.5% of GDP in an expansion . That’s unsustainable math — and markets know it. Monetary capture: The Fed may talk “independence,” but political pressure to keep rates low ahead of the 2026 election is real. Lower rates + high inflation = negative real yields → fiat erosion. Global contagion: Japan is debasing the yen through endless stimulus. Europe is trapped by energy subsidies and political fracture. It’s not just the dollar that’s at risk — it’s fiat credibility itself. Washington dysfunction: The shutdown, tariff politics, and “tariff dividend” talk have all turned the U.S. into a fiscal meme. Investors are finally acting accordingly. 🧱 What’s Driving It Now J.P. Morgan’s flow data tells the story: Retail investors started buying gold and bitcoin ETFs in Q4 2024. Institutional flows followed by Q2 2025. The trade is now “reflexive”: higher prices → more inflows → higher prices. Even Citi now calls bitcoin “digital gold,” with a 12-month target of $181,000. And traditional macro funds are quietly rebuilding 18–20% gold allocations , levels not seen since the 1970s inflation shock. As Pepperstone’s Chris Weston put it: ❝ “There’s nothing that breeds sentiment like a market that’s going up — you’ve got to be in it.” This is how currency confidence collapses — not with a bang, but with FOMO. ⚖️ Why Gold and Bitcoin Are Winning Normally, these two assets compete for capital. Now, they’re part of the same thesis. Gold = 5,000 years of credibility, hedge against inflation and political instability. Bitcoin = new monetary rail, hedge against monetary debasement and digital surveillance. They appeal to different tribes, but they rhyme: both are outside the system. That’s why this rally is broad — gold, bitcoin, and even silver are moving together for the first time since the 2010s. — # (# ) Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf 🔮 What’s Next The “debasement trade” isn’t a one-quarter theme — it’s a multi-year paradigm. As long as: The U.S. debt curve steepens faster than GDP, The Fed cuts into inflation, And global deficits remain structural, …then this trade has legs. The $4,000 gold call is conservative. If deficits stay above 6% and real yields go negative, $4,500–$5,000 becomes plausible. For bitcoin, the next leg is $180,000–$200,000 if ETF flows continue and Asian demand builds post-Yen stimulus. 🧩 The Thematic Angle This isn’t just a macro hedge — it’s a theme : The Death of Fiscal Discipline. Winners: Gold miners and royalty plays (FNV, WPM, AEM, NEM) Crypto treasury companies (MSTR, BMNR, HUT, CLSK) Hard-asset proxies (energy infrastructure, uranium, commodity transport) Alternative stores of value (BTC, ETH, gold-backed tokens) Losers: Long-duration government bonds (TLT, IEF) Currencies pegged to deficits (USD, JPY, EUR) Traditional 60/40 allocators who can’t hedge fiscal risk The next 12–24 months will favor portfolios built on real assets, digital scarcity, and optionality. ❝ The “debasement trade” isn’t a trade — it’s a revolution. Investors are finally waking up to the idea that fiat money itself is the bubble. With deficits spiraling, political dysfunction growing, and the Fed boxed in, assets that live outside the system — gold, bitcoin, hard commodities — will continue to outperform. In a world where governments print value out of existence, the only edge left is owning what can’t be printed. Debasement Portfolio (Example) Sleeve Target Instrument Examples (direct, not ETFs) Implementation Notes Gold (allocated) 30% LBMA-good delivery bars/coins; COMEX 100oz futures (GC) Prefer allocated /segregated vaulting (Brinks/Loomis); if using futures, keep low margin (≤25% notional) and stagger expiries. Bitcoin 20% On-chain BTC (self-custody or institutional custody) Multi-sig; policy for key sharding; rebalance via TWAP; consider CME BTC futures only for short-term hedges. Ethereum 7% On-chain ETH (self-custody or institutional custody) Treat as “digital optionality” on compute/settlement; avoid staking in mandate unless counterparty/lock-up risks are accepted. Silver (allocated) 8% Allocated bars; COMEX 5,000-oz futures (SI) Higher beta to monetary regime; store allocated; futures for tactical adds. Broad Commodities (futures) 15% WTI/Brent (CL/COIL), Nat Gas (NG), Copper (HG), Aluminum (LME), Corn/Wheat (C, W) Run a simple risk parity across contracts; roll calendars; cap single-commodity VaR; avoid excess energy beta if BTC/Gold vol is high. Inflation-Linked Bonds 10% U.S. TIPS 1–5y (CUSIPs direct), inflation swaps (zero-coupon breakevens) Keep short duration real exposure; express breakevens via ZC swaps to isolate inflation vs. rates. FX Diversifiers 5% CHF, SGD, NOK (deliverable forwards or cash deposits) Non-USD pockets tied to current-account strength/terms of trade; ladder monthly forwards. Dry Powder (T-Bills) 5% 1–6m UST bills (CUSIPs direct) Liquidity buffer for drawdowns; rotate into metals/crypto on rebalancing signals. Two alternates (tune to risk appetite) Conservative (lower vol) Gold 35%, TIPS 15%, BTC 10%, ETH 3%, Silver 5%, Commodities 15%, FX 7%, Bills 10% High-Octane (max convexity) Gold 25%, BTC 30%, ETH 12%, Silver 10%, Commodities 15%, TIPS 5%, FX 3%, Bills 0% Guardrails & Playbook Rebalance: Quarterly, with bands (±20% of sleeve weight). If BTC/ETH blow out >+35% from target, trim to band; if gold/silver dip >−20%, add back to mid. Risk caps: Max single-sleeve VaR 35% (crypto cluster); max gross futures margin 15% NAV . Liquidity tiers: Tier 1 (daily): BTC/ETH, gold/silver allocated (with same-day release), T-Bills. Tier 2 (T+2): FX forwards, front-month futures. Storage/Custody: Metals allocated/segregated ; crypto multi-sig with written key policy; no rehypothecation. Derivatives use: Only for exposure and hedging (no yield-selling overlays that cap upside). Triggers & Scenarios USD slides, real yields fall: Add to gold (to 35–40%) and BTC (+5 pts) using bills/FX sleeve. Energy shock (sticky inflation): Keep commodities 15% but tilt within sleeve to WTI/NatGas/Copper ; maintain TIPS. Acute risk-off / USD spike: Resist de-risking gold; use FX sleeve to fund buys; consider short-dated CME BTC puts as crash insurance instead of selling core. Policy pivot (QE-like, deficit unchanged): Lean long breakevens (add TIPS ZC swaps) and top up BTC/Gold 2–3 pts each. Why this mix works (Debasement Math) Gold (30%) : highest hit-rate across fiscal/monetary regimes; low counterparty risk. BTC/ETH (27%) : convex, “outside” fiat; captures digital scarcity & network adoption. Silver (8%) : higher beta to monetary cycle, industrial kicker. Commodities (15%) : real-asset breadth; hedges supply-side inflation. TIPS (10%) : isolates inflation breakeven vs. nominal rate risk. FX (5%) : non-USD ballast with policy optionality. Bills (5%) : tactical ammo for forced-seller moments. 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is Critical Metals (CRML)…. We continue to focus on the Trump Trade and what companies the US wants to take a stake in. Word of caution from Clear Street….. ❝ Regarding the Reuters article and speculation of the Trump Administration considering a stake deal in CRML, we remind investors that the U.S. government is considering several deals and might not select CRML and end any talks, which could cause CRML’s stock price to decline significantly . Tuttle Capital Government Grift ETF (GRFT) is being censored again, still hoping to launch sometime soon, but not easy. ‘Government Grift’ ETF tracking Congress trades could launch this week The SEC has set an effective date for the Tuttle Capital Government Grift ETF, which could launch this week to track congressional trades and companies tied to the President. cointelegraph.com/news/government-grift-etf-could-launch-as-early-as-friday 📬 --- In Case You Missed It Why we do what we do…. 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unleashed Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0