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THE DAILY H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts The Bill Is The New Bottleneck The Bill Is The New Bottleneck Enterprise CFOs just got an invoice they didn’t budget for. The AI trade is not over — but the profit center has rotated. The winners from here are the companies that make AI spend visible, governable, and secure. Jun 18, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $5 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. Table of Contents H.E.A.T. The AI Buildout Has a Physical Layer News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today ETF News In Case You Missed It H.E.A.T.     June 1, 2026:  GitHub Copilot moves to usage-based billing     ~$45B  Anthropic reported annualized run-rate (5x since January)     4 months:  How long before Uber burned its entire 2026 AI budget Aug. 2, 2026:  EU AI Act majority enforcement begins     11%  Share of enterprise SaaS identities already non-human (SailPoint Q4 2026)   The Setup Uber burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in four months. An anonymous enterprise disclosed a $500 million AI spend overrun. Microsoft reportedly began cutting internal Claude Code licenses in May. Sam Altman acknowledged on the record that AI cost management “went from an issue that never came up to all of a sudden a huge issue.” None of that means the AI trade is over. It means the meter just flipped. For two years, the market priced AI infrastructure like compute was the only binding constraint: GPUs, HBM, data centers, power, networking. Those constraints are real and remain. But the newest binding constraint is showing up somewhere more prosaic — on the enterprise software bill. GitHub moved Copilot to usage-based billing on June 1. OpenAI moved Codex to token pricing in April. Google moved Gemini subscriptions to a compute-consumed model in May. The pattern is unmistakable: AI vendors are moving from subsidized access to metered consumption. They had no choice — the fundraising grew faster than the revenue, and eventually the customers have to pick up the tab. “Probably the second biggest theme is around cost. People are really saying, ‘My company spent my entire 2026 budget in Q1. Can you make this more efficient?’ That went from an issue that never came up to all of a sudden a huge issue.” — Sam Altman, OpenAI — June 2026   Where the Money Moves Next If AI usage is expensive enough to frighten CFOs, the next winners are not the companies raising prices. They are the companies that answer the three questions every CFO is now asking: What are we actually spending?  Observability. Datadog and Dynatrace are the telemetry layer that makes the invoice comprehensible. Non-AI enterprise adoption is running at 25% growth for DDOG — not because the AI story is over, but because companies pulling AI in-house need instrumentation to run it. The irony of this earnings season: firms announce AI insourcing plans, then renew observability contracts anyway. Who authorized it?  Identity. SailPoint already governs a base where 11% of SaaS identities are non-human — and that percentage is compounding. Every deployed agent is a new credential event: access rights, privilege scope, audit trail. IAM businesses get paid per identity managed, not per employee headcount. Agentic sprawl is a direct revenue driver for SailPoint in a way it is a headwind for every seat-based SaaS vendor. Can we optimize and route it securely?  Compute delivery and access control. Akamai locked in a seven-year, $1.8 billion commitment from a leading frontier lab for its edge compute business. Fastly’s contracted backlog exploded 63%. Palo Alto’s Idira integration is running 3–6 months ahead of plan. These are not defensive businesses waiting for the AI wave to reach them. They are already processing the traffic. Plain English: The Phase 2 AI Trade Phase 1 (2023–2025): The binding constraint was infrastructure. Build the data centers, buy the GPUs, secure the memory. Phase 2 (2025–present): The binding constraint is cost legibility. The infrastructure exists. The bills are arriving. The CFO wants to know what they bought. The Phase 2 winners are the vendors that sit between the AI invoice and the enterprise budget: observability, identity, access control, and compute delivery infrastructure.   The Agentic Identity Thesis in Detail The most underappreciated dynamic in this rotation is identity. The conventional framing treats AI as a threat to IAM businesses — if agents replace humans, and IAM products charge per human, then fewer humans means less revenue. That logic is wrong. SailPoint’s fiscal Q4 earnings call revealed that 11% of all SaaS identities under governance are already non-human. Okta’s Todd McKinnon noted that most large enterprises will eventually have more agentic identities than human ones. Each of those agentic identities carries credentials, access privileges, and the ability to act on a user’s behalf — often across multiple systems simultaneously. The attack surface that opens when agents proliferate is not theoretical. An attacker who compromises an agent credential gains a vector that operates 24 hours a day, does not get tired, does not second-guess unusual requests, and can access every system the agent has been provisioned to touch. The governance burden is not smaller than human identity management. It is larger, faster-moving, and more automated. Palo Alto’s response is Idira: Zero Standing Privilege by default, credentials provisioned for the duration of a session and revoked on exit, with AI-native analysis surfacing hidden entitlements and unmanaged accounts. The integration of the CyberArk PAM suite into PANW’s platform is running 3–6 months ahead of the original profitability timeline. That is a meaningful signal — platform integrations rarely run ahead of plan. “We believe, over time, most large enterprises will have more agentic identities than human ones. This shift broadens the attack surface because every agent comes with credentials, privileges, and the ability to act on a user’s behalf.” — Todd McKinnon, Okta CEO — Q1 2027 Earnings, May 2026   Observability: You Cannot Cut What You Cannot See The observability thesis arrived with an unusual observation: the first use case that made us bullish on Datadog was the global water industry. When usage-based pricing creates billing opacity, the infrastructure that makes consumption legible becomes essential. Token-based AI pricing is the most extreme version of that dynamic the software industry has ever produced. Datadog’s non-AI segment is growing 25%. That figure matters because it reflects traditional enterprises — not hyperscaler-adjacent early adopters — pulling AI into internal workflows and discovering they cannot operate it without telemetry. JFrog reported that 93% of the Fortune 100 rely on its DevSecOps platform for software delivery. Even if AI generates the code, someone has to deploy it across thousands of devices with near-zero fault tolerance. JFrog owns that deployment layer. The bear case for observability has always been: what if the AI labs build native monitoring into their own platforms and disintermediate the third-party vendors? The evidence from this earnings season suggests the opposite is happening. Frontier labs are signing multi-year compute and observability contracts with external vendors, not replacing them. Fault tolerance demands that companies do not want a single point of failure — including an LLM that could hallucinate its own utilization metrics. Compute Delivery: The CDN Trade Is Not Dead, It Evolved The legacy CDN business model is a race to the bottom. Nobody pays a premium to deliver a static web page. But the traffic composition of the internet in 2026 looks nothing like the internet the CDN business model was built for. Agentic traffic — machine-to-machine requests, dynamic content generation, real-time voice synthesis, automated checkout flows — generates traffic patterns indistinguishable from sophisticated bot attacks. The security layer that distinguishes legitimate agentic traffic from malicious bots is not a commodity. It is a premium product. Akamai protected a leading US retailer from unwanted bots during the holiday shopping season in a contract worth $24 million. Fastly management explicitly described “co-innovating with customers to secure and scale AI use cases and manage a massive new wave of automated traffic.” Cloudflare had the strongest quarterly print of the three — a material beat with lifted profit guidance and a headcount reduction that should improve margins — and fell 25% anyway. The market penalized the optics of the workforce cut while ignoring the business improvement. That is a sentiment error. The compute delivery thesis at Cloudflare is intact. The stock is in the air pocket, not the thesis. Winners TIER TICKER WHY IT WINS NOW RISK TIER 1 SailPoint (SAIL) 11% of governed SaaS identities already non-human. Every new AI agent is a new credential event. IAM businesses get paid per identity, not per seat — agentic sprawl is a direct revenue driver, not a headwind. SailPoint is pursuing a Palo Alto-style platformization strategy while peers are still counting humans. Valuation after re-rate; execution on platform expansion TIER 1 Palo Alto (PANW) Idira (ex-CyberArk PAM) integration running 3–6 months ahead of plan. Zero Standing Privilege — credentials expire the moment a session ends — is the architecture every enterprise needs when agents can act in 72 minutes and defenders historically took days. Platform consolidation math works in their favor as sprawl accelerates. Complexity of multi-product integration; competitive pricing pressure TIER 1 Datadog (DDOG) You cannot cut what you cannot see. Non-AI segment growing 25% as enterprises pull AI in-house and discover they need telemetry to run it. The irony of this earnings season: companies announce AI insourcing, then renew DDOG contracts anyway. Token panic is the single best tailwind observability has ever had. Multiple compression if growth decelerates; LLM-native observability competition TIER 1 Dynatrace (DT) Same observability thesis as DDOG with slightly different enterprise motion. Healthy Q1 print. The ‘you can’t bill what you can’t see’ argument only gets louder as AI invoices arrive. Overlaps heavily with DDOG; pick one or size both smaller TIER 2 Bandwidth (BAND) The Salesforce Agentforce flagship communications contract covers 60+ countries. Management has not built Agentforce volumes into 2H 2026 guidance — that is sandbagged upside in plain sight. CPaaS infrastructure is agnostic to which model wins; it wins whenever an agent makes a call. ~300% since thesis published; valuation has moved; add only on pullbacks TIER 2 Akamai (AKAM) $1.8B seven-year compute commitment from a leading frontier lab. Security suite +11%, compute +39%. Bot defense is the unglamorous but high-margin product that agentic traffic makes essential — automated agents generate traffic patterns indistinguishable from sophisticated bot attacks. Legacy CDN headwinds offset compute growth; not a clean story TIER 2 Fastly (FSLY) RPO +63%, security +47%, compute +67%. Management explicitly called out ‘co-innovating with customers to secure and scale AI use cases and manage a massive new wave of automated traffic.’ November GTA VI launch is a near-term traffic catalyst that pads margins into year-end. Volatile; was $35 in April, mid-teens after Q1; execution risk TIER 2 JFrog (FROG) 93% of Fortune 100. DevSecOps platformization wave. The argument: even if AI writes all the code, someone has to deploy it across thousands of devices with near-zero fault tolerance. JFrog owns that deployment layer. Growth has been lumpy; platform vision not yet fully priced in WATCHLIST FactSet (FDS) Moat is thinning structurally, but the Claude MCP integration is creating an unusual near-term dynamic: enterprises paying for FDS solely because it is the easiest financial data connector for AI workflows. Could drive a few earnings beats before the long-run thesis plays out. This is a trade, not an investment; moat erosion is real and ongoing   Structural Losers CATEGORY THE IMPAIRMENT Seat-based SaaS broadly Per-seat pricing is structurally colliding with AI-driven headcount reduction. The model was built on human count as the unit of value. Agents do not have seats. Revenue compression is a when question, not an if question. Call center operators The core function is being automated. This is not disruption risk — it is replacement. No pivot path and no defensible moat. Gig labor / ed-tech (Chegg, Upwork, Fiverr) Structurally impaired. The current rally in these names is an undiscriminating short squeeze. Do not mistake price momentum for business recovery. Okta (OKTA) Has struggled with its own security vulnerabilities while the identity market it pioneered is being captured by platform players (PANW, SAIL) with better enterprise integration stories.   Pressure Points / Air Pockets TICKER AIR POCKET WHAT RESOLVES IT Cloudflare (NET) 25% post-earnings drop despite a strong beat. Headcount-cut optics dominated the narrative. The compute pivot thesis is intact; the market is not rewarding it yet. Margin trajectory data over next two quarters; GTA VI traffic event CoreWeave (CRWV) Q2 guidance missed. Management language: ‘ecosystem is supply constrained and operationally difficult.’ That is not demand destruction — but it is execution risk at the worst possible time for sentiment. Supply chain normalization; GPU spot-market rate stabilization Anthropic / Labs Enterprise opex revolt is real and spreading. Microsoft reportedly cut Claude Code licenses. Token cost is now a board-level discussion, not an engineering footnote. Pricing efficiency roadmap; model cost-reduction announcements   Credibility Firewall SOURCED / CONFIRMED •  GitHub Copilot moved to usage-based billing June 1, 2026 (GitHub official blog) •  OpenAI moved Codex to token/API pricing in April 2026 (OpenAI changelog) •  Google moved Gemini subscriptions to compute-consumed model, May 19, 2026 (Google announcement) •  Anthropic reported annualized run-rate ~$45B in May 2026 (The Economist — labeled run-rate, not audited) •  Microsoft reportedly cutting internal Claude Code licenses, May 2026 (Times of India — reported, not directly company-confirmed) •  SailPoint: 11% of governed SaaS identities are non-human (company fiscal Q4 earnings call) •  Bandwidth signed Salesforce Agentforce flagship contract; 60+ country coverage (company earnings call) •  Palo Alto Idira integration ahead of CyberArk profitability timeline by 3–6 months (PANW earnings) •  Akamai: seven-year, $1.8B commitment from leading frontier model lab for compute business (AKAM Q1 2026 earnings) •  Fastly RPO +63%; security +47%; compute +67% (FSLY Q1 2026 earnings) DIRECTIONAL INFERENCE •  Token panic is a cyclical repricing event, not structural AI demand destruction — the meter flip accelerates Phase 2 infrastructure spending •  Agentic identities will exceed human identities at large enterprises within 2 years •  Observability vendors are structurally insulated from LLM replacement — fault tolerance of financial and operational systems is near-zero •  FactSet near-term earnings beats are possible from MCP/Claude integration driving new seat demand •  Cloudflare's post-earnings selloff is a sentiment error, not a verdict on the compute delivery business •  The enterprise AI cost reckoning will produce formal spend-governance RFP cycles by Q3 2026, benefiting DDOG, DT, and PANW Cortex   Bear Case What Would Break This Thesis Token panic becomes structural pullback:  If enterprise budget exhaustion translates to actual workload reduction — not just repricing — then agent deployment counts plateau. Observability and identity revenues track deployment velocity. A genuine AI pullback damages this thesis, not just the labs. LLM-native observability disintermediates DDOG and DT:  If frontier labs successfully build monitoring tools that enterprises prefer over third-party platforms, the telemetry thesis weakens. Current evidence points the other way, but the risk is real. Short squeeze misread as recovery:  The broad rally in AI-loser names is undiscriminating. The genuinely impaired businesses (Chegg, call centers, generic seat SaaS) are being swept up alongside the few legitimate call options. Getting overweight the wrong names in a short squeeze is exactly how this thesis gets contaminated. Platform consolidation reverses:  The SailPoint and Palo Alto theses depend on enterprise preference for platform consolidation over best-of-breed point solutions. If procurement cycles revert to multi-vendor approaches, the platform premium compresses.   Five Takeaways 1.  The bottleneck rotated to the bill.  Phase 1 AI was about building infrastructure. Phase 2 is about making it legible. The marginal alpha has moved from GPU makers to the vendors that answer three CFO questions: What did we spend? Who authorized it? Can we optimize it? 2.  Agentic identity is the sleeper trade of the rotation.  11% of enterprise SaaS identities are already non-human and compounding. IAM businesses charge per identity managed. Agentic sprawl is a direct revenue driver — the opposite of a headwind. 3.  Observability is structurally insulated from LLM disruption.  The fault tolerance requirements of financial and operational systems are near-zero. No enterprise will trust an LLM to hallucinate its own utilization metrics. The telemetry layer stays human-supervised regardless of how capable the models become. 4.  The CDN selloffs are sentiment errors, not verdicts.  Cloudflare down 25% on a beat. Fastly volatile despite 63% RPO growth. The market is mispricing the compute-delivery evolution because it is anchored to the legacy CDN narrative. The traffic composition has changed; the business models are changing with it. 5.  The short-squeeze rally in AI losers is a trap.  Some of these names will prove to be legitimate call options. Most will not. The market cannot distinguish between a genuine recovery and a crowded short getting squeezed. Do not mistake price momentum for thesis repair.   Catalyst Watchlist DATE CATALYST NAMES IN PLAY June 9, 2026 SailPoint earnings — agentic identity KPIs; non-human identity % is the number to watch SAIL, PANW, OKTA Q2 2026 earnings season Enterprise AI opex commentary; how many CFOs confirm budget exhaustion? DDOG, DT, NET, FSLY, AKAM, SAIL, FROG August 2, 2026 EU AI Act enforcement begins — transparency + Annex III high-risk obligations; compliance spend accelerates TWLO, BAND; EU data-residency vendors November 2026 GTA VI launch — largest single edge CDN traffic event on record FSLY, AKAM, NET Ongoing Enterprise AI observability and spend-governance RFPs — watch DDOG, DT win rates DDOG, DT, PANW (Cortex)   The AI Buildout Has a Physical Layer Many of today’s data centers are still using copper wiring. The same metal we’ve been using for a hundred years. At the speeds AI demands with data moving between thousands of GPUs, billions of times a second, copper doesn’t just slow down. It turns that data into heat. The more you push through it, the worse it gets. There’s no software for fix for that. So what’s the answer? Explore the Photonics Layer….. Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO) Distributor: Foreside Fund Services | Investing involves risk including possible loss of principle. News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Warsh’s first Fed meeting went off without a hitch. The Fed kept rates steady, his statement was much shorter than what Powell usually did, and the Fed removed language that showed a bias towards easing. They also removed language talking about a dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, and replaced it with “The committee will deliver price stability”. The Fed also raised it’s core inflation outlook for 2026-8 and lowered it’s GDP growth outlook for 2026-7. Kinda sounds stagflationish to me. 9 of the 18 members see at least one hike this year. On this news the 2 year interest rates spiked and the market sold off. Of course, since investors are conditioned to by any dip it seems to be retracing most, if not all, of those losses today. Citadel had a note this morning with a September hike as a base case, but the July meeting as “live”, meaning anything is possible in July. They also see 3 hikes, 25bps each. I continue to see higher rates as the biggest risk to this rally. Speaking of inflation, I’m not sure we fully understand the impact of things like this….. Apple to Raise Prices Due to Memory Chip Crunch, Tim Cook Says The CEO tells the Journal in an exclusive interview that soaring costs make price increases ‘unavoidable’ www.wsj.com/tech/apple-price-increases-memory-supply-199845b1?mod=hp_lead_pos1 Where Does the Money Go When AI Hits a Wall? When capital chases a tech theme, it tends to pile into the most obvious layer and miss the one underneath. AI spending is now bumping hard against memory. Hyperscalers — the big cloud builders like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft — have shifted memory from 8% of their build budgets to an estimated 30% in a single cycle. That capital has to go somewhere. If the constraint is memory, and the build can't move without it, shouldn't an investor own the layer AI runs on? View HBMX fund holdings → Distributor: Foreside Fund Services | Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal. <Link = http://www.hbmxetf.com/> ETF News Investing in UFOs? The ETF betting on secret government tech Investing in the unknown. Tuttle Capital Management CEO &amp; CIO Matt Tuttle discusses his UFO Disclosure ETF, which focuses on the possibility of secret government technology that may one day be publicly disclosed. Yahoo Finance REX Shares and Tuttle probe the final frontier of ETF investing Wall Street's appetite for leveraged bets on high-profile technology companies is extending beyond AI and electric vehicles. The Armchair Trader • Graeme Coles-Andrew Options Now Available on FOTO, Tuttle Capital's Pure Play Photonics ETF Riverside, Connecticut--(Newsfile Corp. - June 16, 2026) - Tuttle Capital Management today announced that options on the Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (CBOE: FOTO) began trading on Cboe Options (C1) and EDGX Options on June 5, 2026, following the Fund's launch on May 29, 2026. The addition of listed options - standardized, exchange-traded contracts that give the holder the right to buy or sell FOTO shares at a set price before a specified date - gives investors further tools to manage.. Yahoo Finance A Stock I’m Watching $WOLF ( ▲ 17.91% ) Held this one for a while in $MEMY ( ▲ 2.78% ). Undercut and rally at the 50 day moving average the other day and has held a couple of times. Like this chart here. In Case You Missed It Great conversation on wide ranging topics with Kenny Polcari… AI vs. inflation: why Wall Street is ignoring soaring rates Does AI hype have Wall Street ignoring inflation? Trader Talk host Kenny Polcari discusses the growing concerns with NYSE Senior Market Strategist Michael Reinking, and Tuttle Capital Management CEO &amp; CIO, Matthew Tuttle Yahoo Finance The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2026 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved. 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