최고의 주식 선별자는 워싱턴 DC에 있지만 낸시 펠로시(Nancy Pelosi)는 아니다

The Best Stock Picker Is In Washington DC, And It's Not Nancy Pelosi THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts The Best Stock Picker Is In Washington DC, And It's Not Nancy Pelosi The Best Stock Picker Is In Washington DC, And It's Not Nancy Pelosi Jan 15, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily --- H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. ❝ I’m hosting a webinar entitled “Why Covered Call ETFs Suck and What to Do Instead” (More Info Below) January 15 2-3pm. Sign Up Here Table of Contents --- H.E.A.T. 2026’s Best Stock Picker Lives in the White House The “Affordability Mandate” Is a New Market Regime How to Stay Ahead of “Washington Alpha” (Without G … • 1) Track what voters feel, not what economists mod … • 2) Watch for the “First Compliance Domino” • 3) Follow the “behind China” agenda • 4) Buy the toll roads to policy, not the headlines --- Winners and Losers: The White House Scoreboard Likely Winners (First-Order) Second-Order Winners (Where the real money often s … Likely Losers (First-Order) The Big Takeaway --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today --- A Stock I’m Watching --- In Case You Missed It Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead --- H.E.A.T. 2026’s Best Stock Picker Lives in the White House In 2025, the playbook was easy: buy “AI exposure” and let the multiple do the work. In 2026, that gets replaced by something far more powerful (and more dangerous): political pricing power. The Trump “affordability” campaign isn’t just a slogan — it’s an enforcement mechanism. When the White House decides a cost is politically unacceptable, it doesn’t ask markets to solve it… it forces a solution and tells you who’s paying for it. We’ve already seen the template in real time: cap the pain (credit-card APR rhetoric), attack the toll booths (swipe fees), and make Big Tech “pay its own way” so the public doesn’t “pick up the tab” for data-center power bills. Here’s the investing tell most people miss: Washington is not picking winners and losers at random. It’s following two rules that you can front-run: If the public sees it on a monthly bill, it becomes a political target. (Electricity, mortgages/rent, credit cards, healthcare.) If we’re behind China (or dependent on China), it becomes a national priority. (Drones, shipbuilding, critical minerals/rare earths, grid hardware, defense supply chain.) That means 2026 becomes a market of dispersion : the same “sector” can have massive winners and massive losers depending on whether they’re the bill … or the solution. The “Affordability Mandate” Is a New Market Regime Think of affordability like a new tax. If Washington wants lower prices and still wants growth, it needs someone else to eat the cost: Credit cards: The White House floated a 10% cap on credit-card interest rates (headline risk is immediate even if policy is messy). Swipe fees: The messaging is that networks are a “ripoff” and competition should be forced. Data centers: The signal is blunt: AI is strategic, but ratepayers won’t subsidize it . Microsoft is already being positioned as the first “good actor” — paying rates that cover its data-center costs so they aren’t pushed onto consumers. This is the new reality: Washington is now a margin regulator for anything that touches household budgets. How to Stay Ahead of “Washington Alpha” (Without Guessing) You don’t need to be a political junkie. You need a checklist. • 1) Track what voters feel, not what economists model If it shows up on a household statement, it’s a candidate: Power bills (electricity, water) Mortgage rates / rent Credit card APRs + fees Insurance premiums Healthcare out-of-pocket costs When the White House starts naming a “villain,” that sector becomes tradable. • 2) Watch for the “First Compliance Domino” The first big company to comply tells you where the puck is going. Microsoft being singled out on data-center power cost responsibility is a perfect example of how this works: once one player agrees publicly, peers get pressured into “voluntary” alignment. • 3) Follow the “behind China” agenda This is the easiest forecast in markets: no administration wants to be blamed for strategic weakness. If we’re behind, subsidies/procurement/fast-track permitting tends to follow: Drones Shipbuilding Critical minerals / rare earth processing Defense electronics, munitions supply chain Grid buildout (transformers, switchgear, transmission) • 4) Buy the toll roads to policy, not the headlines The best “Washington-proof” positioning is usually: picks-and-shovels infrastructure enablers contracted revenue regulated/mandated spend Avoid thin-margin businesses whose entire “moat” is a fee the public hates. --- Winners and Losers: The White House Scoreboard Likely Winners (First-Order) • 1) “Affordability beneficiaries” (lower rates / housing activity) Homebuilders: $DHI, $LEN, $PHM, $TOL, $NVR Housing ecosystem: $HD, $LOW, $BLDR Mortgage origination/servicing sensitivity: $RKT, $UWMC, $COOP, $PFSI • 2) “Pay-your-own-way AI” enablers (data centers keep building, but the cost shifts) Grid + electrical bottleneck beneficiaries: $ETN, $PWR, $HUBB, $GEV Power suppliers who can sign long-duration deals with hyperscalers: $VST, $CEG, $NRG, $TLN • 3) “We’re behind China” national-priority trade Drones / unmanned systems: $AVAV, $KTOS Shipbuilding / naval industrial base: $HII, $GD Critical minerals / rare earths: $MP, $UUUU Copper (electrification + grid + defense + data centers): $FCX, $SCCO Second-Order Winners (Where the real money often shows up) These are the “quiet winners” that benefit because Washington is forcing capex and re-shoring: Defense electronics + secure comms: $LHX, $RTX, $NOC Cybersecurity as “national resilience”: $PANW, $CRWD, $FTNT Merchants/retailers if swipe fees/credit costs compress: $WMT, $COST, $TGT (If the consumer interest burden falls, spending power rises.) Likely Losers (First-Order) • 1) “Affordability villains” (fees + APR optics) Card lenders / consumer finance exposure: $COF, $SYF, $DFS, $AXP Payment toll booths: $V, $MA • 2) Institutional housing buyers (if Washington targets them) Single-family rental landlords: $INVH, $AMH (If policy shifts marginal demand away from institutions and toward owner-occupiers, these become a headline-risk bucket.) • 3) AI buildout “middlemen” that need cheap power and a friendly regulator Data center REITs (headline-risk/volatility bucket): $EQIX, $DLR (Not because “data centers are dead,” but because political cost allocation creates uncertainty around returns.) The Big Takeaway 2026 isn’t about predicting one macro number — it’s about predicting who gets stuck with the bill. When the White House is explicitly saying consumers won’t “pick up the tab” (power, fees, interest), the market is going to re-rate entire industries based on whether they have: pricing power political permission to pass through costs strategic importance a credible “we’re the solution” narrative In a year like that, the edge is simple: don’t fight the White House… front-run the incentives. --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Rough day in the market yesterday. The tariff decision was delayed, which could have added to uncertainty, or the market has had a great start to the year and a bit of profit taking is to be expected. Days like today are perfect examples of why we tell clients to have precious metals and crypto in their portfolios as both of those areas where up nicely. Remember, I do not think precious metals or crypto are Hedges. To be a Hedge something needs to go up every time the market goes down. They do both do that sometimes and tend to be uncorrelated though. Meanwhile, Taiwan Semi (TSM) posted record earnings and said it expects capital investments to rise sharply in the next three years. This has all the semiconductor stocks ripping this morning. --- A Stock I’m Watching Today’s stock is Teradyne (TER)…… Teradyne (TER) is one of the cleaner “picks-and-shovels” ways to express the next leg of AI infrastructure without having to be right about which chip vendor wins—because as AI chips and especially HBM-heavy systems get more complex, the industry’s pain point shifts from making silicon to qualifying, testing, and shipping silicon at high yields. That’s why TER keeps showing up as a top idea in the semicap tape: if 2026 wafer-fab equipment spend is indeed being pulled forward (the chatter is +10–15% and 2H-weighted), the test layer tends to tighten right alongside it, and TER has a setup for a “turning quarter” as AI/memory-driven test intensity rises. The asymmetric bull-case is a combo of ( • 1) higher test content per device (advanced packaging + HBM complexity), ( • 2) improving mix/ASPs as customers chase throughput, and ( • 3) the optionality that TER could gain incremental share if Nvidia expands its GPU test vendor set beyond the incumbent path—one credible “GPU win” can change sentiment fast in this group. Bottom line: TER is a high-beta way to play the constraints of the AI buildout (yield + validation), not just the buildout itself. --- In Case You Missed It — # (# ) How Else I Can Help You Beat Wall Street at Its Own Game Inside --- H.E.A.T. is our monthly webinar series, sign up for this month’s webinar below…. Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead Thursday January 15, 2-3PM EST Covered call ETFs are everywhere — and everyone thinks they’ve found a “safe” way to collect yield in a sideways market. The truth? Most of them suck. They cap your upside, mislead investors with “yield” that’s really your own money coming back , and often trail just owning the stock by a mile. Join me for a brutally honest breakdown of how these funds actually work — and what you should be doing instead. What You’ll Learn: 🔥 Why “high yield” covered call ETFs are often just returning your own capital 📉 How most call-writing strategies quietly destroy compounding 🚫 Why owning covered calls in bull markets is like running a marathon in a weighted vest 💡 The simple structure that can fix these problems — and where the real daily income opportunities are hiding Sign Up Here All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0