AI 면역(내성) 투자: 클라우드에서 실물로

THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts The “AI Immunity” Trade: From Cloud to Concrete The “AI Immunity” Trade: From Cloud to Concrete Feb 25, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily --- H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. Table of Contents --- H.E.A.T. HALO: Wall Street’s newest “hideout” trade Winners: specific stocks the market treats as HALO • 1) Industrial capacity & “can’t-be-copied” infrast … • 2) Energy & materials: the real-economy “ballast” • 3) Logistics & networks • 4) “You can’t download dinner”: staples + physical … Losers: stocks the market targets when “AI disrupt … • 1) Asset-light software / digital labor proxies (m … • 2) “Digital middlemen” models (AI can route around … • 3) Human-capital-heavy financial distribution How to position without getting cute The big risk to the HALO trade --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Markets are rotating from “future promises” to “ne … --- A Stock I’m Watching --- In Case You Missed It $4B Fund Manager Matt Tuttle: The 'HEAT' Strategy … Talking stocks with Kirk Chisholm --- H.E.A.T. HALO: Wall Street’s newest “hideout” trade The market’s latest obsession has a simple premise: if AI can replicate it with a prompt, the economic moat just got thinner. If AI can’t replicate it — because it requires real-world capacity, networks, permits, engineering, labor, physical logistics, or decades of installed infrastructure — then it suddenly looks… durable. That’s the “HALO” trade: Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence — and it’s showing up in performance. Goldman’s strategists point to a sustained gap between capital-intensive companies (value driven by physical assets) versus capital-light companies (value driven by human/digital capital), with the “hard asset” side materially ahead since early 2025. What makes this different from the usual “value rally” is the psychological driver: AI disruption fear. When investors aren’t sure who gets automated next, they don’t calmly model it — they reprice the whole category. The result is a market that looks “fine” at the index level but is violent under the surface: money rotates into sectors that sell tangible stuff (energy, materials, industrials, staples, utilities) and out of sectors that sell digital labor (parts of software, fintech, brokerage/wealth, certain “middleman” models). The most important nuance: HALO isn’t anti-technology. It’s anti-obsolescence risk. In fact, many HALO names can benefit from AI twice — first because they’re “hard to replace,” and second because AI infrastructure buildout demands more power, more grid, more construction, more equipment, more logistics. That’s why this trade can persist longer than the average “fear rotation”… especially if rates stay elevated and the market keeps punishing long-duration, asset-light multiples. Winners: specific stocks the market treats as HALO These are not “predictions” — they’re clean examples of heavy assets + low obsolescence exposure that fit the HALO framing investors are gravitating toward. • 1) Industrial capacity & “can’t-be-copied” infrastructure CAT (Caterpillar) – equipment + real-world capex leverage; also a “picks & shovels” angle to grid / construction. DE (Deere) – physical machines, physical food system; difficult to “AI away.” PWR (Quanta Services) – grid buildout, transmission, electrification, data center power infrastructure (HALO and AI-enabler). ETN (Eaton) – electrical gear tied to grid, power quality, and buildout complexity. • 2) Energy & materials: the real-economy “ballast” XOM (Exxon Mobil) – commodity + infrastructure + geopolitics; an obvious “hard asset” beneficiary. CVX (Chevron) – similar HALO profile. NUE (Nucor) – domestic steel / industrial capacity. FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) – electrification metal exposure. • 3) Logistics & networks FDX (FedEx) – physical delivery network; still needs planes, hubs, trucks, labor. UPS (United Parcel Service) – similar “real-world network” logic. UNP (Union Pacific) – rail network = hard-to-replicate infrastructure. • 4) “You can’t download dinner”: staples + physical footprints MCD (McDonald’s) – real-world distribution + footprint; a poster child for HALO. KO (Coca-Cola) – physical product + distribution; another classic HALO example. COST (Costco) / WMT (Walmart) – supply chain + scale + physical retail infrastructure. Losers: stocks the market targets when “AI disruption” is the headline Important: some of these may ultimately be huge AI winners (because they adopt AI and expand margins). The point is: in a HALO tape, these are the types of models the market tends to shoot first — because they’re perceived as more “prompt-replaceable,” asset-light, and multiple-sensitive. • 1) Asset-light software / digital labor proxies (multiple compression risk) NOW (ServiceNow) CRM (Salesforce) WDAY (Workday) ADBE (Adobe) SNOW (Snowflake) • 2) “Digital middlemen” models (AI can route around the toll booth) EXPE (Expedia) / BKNG (Booking) – if AI agents get better at optimizing travel end-to-end, aggregators look more vulnerable than airlines/hotels. PYPL (PayPal) / SQ (Block) – platform-style “take rates” face narrative risk if AI changes customer acquisition and routing economics. • 3) Human-capital-heavy financial distribution AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher), BRO (Brown & Brown) – great businesses, but the market can treat brokerage-like models as “AI-exposed” when the narrative flips to automation and disintermediation. How to position without getting cute A simple framework that matches what’s happening under the hood: Barbell, not all-in: keep exposure to “AI builders” (chips / infrastructure) and “AI immunity” (HALO). The mistake is being 100% in the “AI dream” or 100% in the “AI fear.” Own capacity + bottlenecks: networks, grid, logistics, equipment, energy — things that compound value because they’re hard to replicate. Avoid overlap traps: many portfolios accidentally own the same “AI duration” risk 10 different ways (SaaS + fintech + marketplaces). In a HALO tape, that correlation spikes. The big risk to the HALO trade HALO can reverse fast if: rates fall sharply (long-duration growth gets re-rated), or the market decides the “AI disruption fear” was overdone and rotates back into beaten-up software. That doesn’t kill the concept — it just means the trade is regime-dependent. --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Markets are rotating from “future promises” to “near-term execution + cash flow” You can see it in the violent target cuts on some high-narrative infrastructure names. The market is saying: “Show me contracted demand, throughput, margins, and delivery.” Lot of deals yesterday…… AMD made a deal with META INTU and DOCU made deals with Anthropic The big event tonight are NVDA earnings after the close. This was interesting, we’ve been noticing every day around 10AM Bitcoin has a strong move…. I’ll have to keep an eye on this, we trade 0DTE options on Bitcoin and MSTR every day, and I always wait for the 10AM move to get out of the way. --- A Stock I’m Watching Keysight (KEYS) is quietly becoming one of the most leveraged “picks-and-shovels” beneficiaries of the AI buildout—because as AI racks and clusters scale, the testing and validation problem explodes. In the latest print, KEYS delivered a meaningful beat versus the high end of guidance and then raised FY26 growth to “just above 20%,” with the April-quarter outlook implying roughly ~30% y/y revenue growth and a big step-up in earnings power. What’s driving it: hyperscalers are pulling KEYS in “from early R&D all the way to manufacturing” to emulate real AI workloads and stress conditions across an increasingly complex infrastructure stack—electrical vs optical, Ethernet fabrics, and the next wave of co-packaged optics, silicon photonics, and optical circuit switching (more architectural churn typically = more test content). On top of that, management flagged record defense orders (spectrum operations, space/satellite, radar) and described one of the strongest demand funnels they’ve seen in decades. Net-net: KEYS looks less like a traditional instrumentation cyclical and more like a mission-critical toll collector on the messy, expensive transition to the next generation of AI interconnect and defense modernization. --- In Case You Missed It $4B Fund Manager Matt Tuttle: The 'HEAT' Strategy for 2026 Talking stocks with Kirk Chisholm The --- H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2026 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved. 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