기술 점검: 필수품과 필수품 비교

Tech Check: Must-Owns vs. Must-Sells THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Tech Check: Must-Owns vs. Must-Sells Tech Check: Must-Owns vs. Must-Sells Sep 5, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 📈Stifel Tech Check: Must-Owns vs. Must-Sells 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now Today is Jobs so just about anything can happen. Rates have pulled back…. The 10 year is below 4.2% and it seems the market is currently pricing in 60bps of cuts this year. Crytpo looks to have found a bottom here, Bitcoin bounced off support and is trying to head higher…. Ethereum continues to be in a basing pattern, finding support at the 20 day EMA… A couple of news items caught my eye yesterday that I need to look more into, possibly next week if I find anything interesting…. Trump warns ‘fairly substantial’ chip tariffs are coming; signals Apple, others will be safe Trump has reiterated a warning that he will soon impose "fairly substantial" tariffs on semiconductor imports, but spare firms like Apple investing in the U.S. www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/trump-warns-of-fairly-substantial-chip-tariffs-signals-apple-others-safe-ai-tim-cook-tech.html Stablecoin group Tether holds talks to invest in gold miners Boss of crypto company that posted first-half profits of $5.7bn has called the precious metal ‘natural bitcoin’ www.ft.com/content/135fb3dd-2395-4f04-8cc6-7fb0e87cd092 Not sure what to make of that, readers know I am a big believer that you should have crytpo and precious metals. Looks like Tether agrees, maybe they should just buy BEGS… Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf GRFT is slated to launch 10/8, looks like the big tech firms are vying to be in the portfolio…. Big Tech bosses court favour with Trumps at White House dinner Heads of Google, Microsoft, OpenAI and Apple back AI initiative spearheaded by first lady Melania Trump www.ft.com/content/3648f6cc-91ee-426f-8c59-6c3e784c4720 We had Gary Kaltbaum on the podcast yesterday. Gary uses a combination of William O’Neil’s methods and Stan Weinstein. He’s looking for the strongest stocks in the strongest areas. Unlike a lot of O’Neil followers who end up buying crap, Gary focuses on more of the well known names. He is also bullish…… 📈 Stifel Tech Check: Must-Owns vs. Must-Sells Stifel recently did a deep dive on tech stocks and catalysts. In honor of me calling AVGO a must own on Schwab Network yesterday I decided to take a slightly deeper dive on some of the names…. Must-Owns (Top conviction; 12–24 mo) NVDA (9/ • 10) Edge: Blackwell ramp, networking flywheel (NVLink, Spectrum X, XDR IB), mid-70% GM reiterated; China H20 upside optional. Asymmetry: Agentic AI/reasoning keeps compute intensity rising through ’26. Near catalysts (30–90d): Blackwell shipment color; networking run-rate updates; any H20 license clarity. CDNS (9/ • 10) Edge: “AI-first” EDA with system-level simulation; takes a bigger slice of semi R&D as custom silicon booms. Asymmetry: Every new AI/ASIC tape-out passes through Cadence. Catalysts: Product cycles; China demand that’s “not in numbers.” NOW (8.5/ • 10) Edge: Multi-agent orchestration across enterprise workflows; Fed momentum improving; 30% AI ASP uplift. Asymmetry: Software spend re-rotation from semis; “budget flush” seasonality. Catalysts: Federal wins; user/analyst events; pipeline conversion. SNOW (8.5/ • 10) Edge: Re-acceleration (32% product rev), 125% NRR; AI modules driving workload migration. Asymmetry: Guide looks conservative; multiple avenues to upside in 2H. Catalysts: New product attach (Snowpark, Dynamic Tables); early AI project budget releases. MDB (8/ • 10) Edge: Atlas growth re-accelerating; beat/raise with margin upside; Postgres fears faded (for now). Asymmetry: Data layer benefits as AI projects move from PoC → prod. Catalysts: Atlas consumption; new workload adds. ESTC (8/ • 10) Edge: Beats/raises; cloud + self-managed accel; security displacements rising; conservative guide. Asymmetry: Under-owned + GenAI search/log/security convergence. Catalysts: Price realization; federal tailwind follow-through. SITM (8/ • 10) Edge: High-end timing is “must-have” for DC/AI; 80% single-sourced design wins; cash-rich M&A option. Asymmetry: Wi-Fi7/modem cycles + bundling (clocks/oscillators). Catalysts: Design-win disclosures; Apple modem tailwinds CY25–26. JBL (8/ • 10) Edge: $8.5B AI revs this year; second hyperscaler ramp; racks + liquid cooling + optics. Asymmetry: Moving from EMS to systems partner; 40k racks/yr capacity. Catalysts: Hyperscaler orders; networking/transceiver synergies. PSTG (7.5/ • 10) Edge: Platform adoption improving; META collaboration; beat/raise with clearer 2H. Asymmetry: Storage share gains as AI clusters proliferate. Catalysts: Large deal cadence; margin durability. AMBA (7.5/ • 10) Edge: Edge-AI SoCs (5nm), broadening use-cases; FY26 guide stepped up again; not inventory pull-ins. Asymmetry: Strategic angle (press reports of potential sale) + secular edge AI growth. Catalysts: Customer wins; any corporate actions. Honorable mentions (7–7.5/10): ADSK (cleanup underway; FY29 OM targets attractive), TENB (platform consolidation; washed-out valuation + M&A chatter), NET (GTMs improving; ZTNA share gains; “AI picks/shovels” angle), SMTC (China CSP bookings, LPO/800G/1.6T pipeline), MXL (turnaround momentum; Wi-Fi7 & pricing uplift). Must-Sells / Avoids (or Underweights for now) MRVL (5.5/ • 10) – Avoid near-term, watch into 4Q setup Why: Guide implies DC digestion; bears pressing on custom ASIC share until proof otherwise. Counter: If it really is “one quarter” of digestion, the 4Q sling-shot is real. Keep on radar, not in the penalty box forever. Towers: SBAC / AMT / CCI (5–6/ • 10) – Underweight Why: Stock pressure on spectrum/transaction headlines (e.g., T–SATS) and AI power shift favoring on-prem DC buildouts + fiber/terrestrial backbones more than macro tower demand near-term. Stance: Not “broken,” but setup isn’t favorable vs. AI infra alternatives. EFX / PAYC (5–6/ • 10) – Cautious Why: Pro services lag; macro sensitivity. Prefer workflow platforms (NOW) or data platforms (SNOW/MDB/ESTC) with clearer AI monetization. HUBS (Hold, 6/ • 10) – Not a sell, but don’t press Why: VARs flag SEO disruption; mgmt rolling out agentic tools. Watch INBOUND for a narrative turn. Trade: Wait for the event/guide; rerate possible, but not yet must-own. One-liners Semis/AI HW: NVDA still the hub; keep powder for MRVL post-digestion proof; SITM is the stealth winner; CDNS is the toll-booth. AI infra software: SNOW/MDB/ESTC beats suggest software is re-warming —own the data layer. Workflow OS: NOW is the multi-agent orchestration leader; this is where software alpha lives. Edge/EMS: JBL is becoming an AI systems manufacturer (racks, cooling, optics)—under-owned leverage to hyperscalers. Storage: PSTG regains credibility; DELL storage soft, NTAP steady—tilt to the cleaner grower. Quick Ratings Table Bucket Ticker Rating Why Now AI Compute NVDA 9/10 Blackwell + networking flywheel; GM intact EDA CDNS 9/10 AI/custom silicon R&D toll-booth Workflow OS NOW 8.5/10 Orchestration + Fed recovery; AI ASP uplift Data Layer SNOW 8.5/10 Re-accel; conservative guide; AI attach Data Layer MDB 8/10 Atlas accel; margin beats Search/Sec/Obs ESTC 8/10 Under-owned; security wins; conservative guide Timing SITM 8/10 Single-source timing in AI DC EMS/Systems JBL 8/10 Racks/liquid cooling; 2nd hyperscaler Storage PSTG 7.5/10 Platform adoption; 2H setup Edge AI SoCs AMBA 7.5/10 Edge AI secular; corp optionality ASIC / DC MRVL 5.5/10 Near-term digestion; watch for 4Q sling-shot Towers SBAC/AMT/CCI 5–6/10 Relative underperformers vs. AI infra Pro Services EFX/PAYC 5–6/10 Macro-sensitive; prefer platform/data Marketing SaaS HUBS 6/10 Wait for INBOUND clarity The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover Tue, Sep 30, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT -Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead - How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes - 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market - How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns - Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns - 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds Click Below to Register The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover register.gotowebinar.com/register/2237592374108794972 📈 Stock Corner In honor of Gary today’s stock is JP Morgan (JPM)……. Not my normal thematic play but can’t ignore the strength. Certainly a stock you could sell puts on, or put spreads as Larry Benedict recommends. I hate covered calls, but this is a name you could do that on also. 📬 --- In Case You Missed It — # (# ) 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0