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Tariff On, Tariff Off THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Tariff On, Tariff Off Tariff On, Tariff Off The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle May 27, 2025 Subscribe now Share I will be on News Nation this morning at 7:30AM EST talking about the EU tariff delay In Today’s Issue: Tariff On, Tariff Off Japanese Bond Yields May Be The Tell Nuclear Hype or Holy Grail? What Trump’s Executive Orders Really Mean for Your Portfolio Beaming Power from Space: Sci-Fi Energy Tech Just Got Shockingly Real Buy and Hold Sucks and more…….. Tariff On, Tariff Off Trump Delays 50 Percent Tariff On EU Goods To July 9 | ZeroHedge ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-delays-50-percent-tariff-eu-goods-july-9 The past couple of days shows why trying to figure out this market is so hard, and why you should pretty much just stick with the Trump’s Inner Circle theme. Friday we woke to news of Trump going after AAPL. Then this weekend we get whipsawed on a delay of European tariffs. Interesting take from Mike O’Rourke last night…… ❝ Following the Administration’s trade capitulation to China at the Geneva meetings, investor expectations are rising that most national-level tariff deals will amount to a series of “ closet capitulations ,” where a deal is announced, accompanied by glowing adjectives, but with little substantive change. Most Americans were content with the status quo, so that outcome would not be negative—but it raises the question of whether it was worth putting small businesses, companies, and the U.S. populace through angst for nothing. Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading And, from Jefferies….. ❝ Trump delayed his 50% tariffs on EU goods into July 9 v June 1 after EC president stated that the 27 nation bloc needs time to produce “the deal”, Glass half full proponents will once again argue that trade barriers are unlikely to come to fruition in their worst form as they are essentially strongarm tactic  to ensure better terms for US. Jef-X Daily Macro Friday SPY held right where it needed to…. Bulls need to see the 200 day moving average hold. Same with QQQs… The Dow and Russell 2000 still look like shorts, but those are crap indices anyway IMHO… Continue to focus on rates, which came down again yesterday… Trump may not be watching the stock market but he definitely has his eye on rates. Here is the problem he continues to face with the Fed…. Kashkari Favors Maintaining Fed Rates Until More Tariff Clarity Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari doubled down on his case for caution amid uncertainty caused by the trade war and the “paramount” need to defend inflation expectations. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-27/kashkari-favors-maintaining-fed-rates-until-more-tariff-clarity?srnd=homepage-americas Speaking of the Trump Inner Circle theme, I’ve been waiting for this for a while…. Trump media group plans to raise $3bn to spend on cryptocurrencies US president’s administration and family have become staunch advocates for digital assets www.ft.com/content/cc55d091-0b28-40bb-a11c-e32d4e121ca3?accessToken=zwAAAZcQ8G3rkdPMVdCRCyhAu9OhHOMtThIcow.MEUCIFbch3oGgTXYbf3fPTN0xNs5ohqw-Yb_yfBMYUGrpmlBAiEAqYJRlbKs1eEOJiEQshcv4NASsrAPRY_e1ZvR0h3uygM&segmentId=e95a9ae7-622c-6235-5f87-51e412b47e97&shareType=enterprise&shareId=5886e970-6025-4f9b-a669-326d4553e388 DJTU - REX Shares www.rexshares.com/djtu Last week saw 5 SPAC IPOs raising $1bn. YTD we have now seen 49 SPACs with $10.2bn raised. Another $5bn is still in the immediate pipeline. SPAC Market Stats US SPAC Market SPACs Trust Capital Total Active SPACs 220 $23.2bln Pre-Deal / Seeking 128 $19.2bln Announced Mergers 92 $4.0 S-1s Awaiting Pricing 39 $5.0bln SPAC IPOs US SPAC IPOs Listed Notional 2025 49 $10.2bln 2024 57 $9.6bln 2023 31 $3.8bln 2022 86 $13.4bln 2021 613 $162bln 2020 248 $83bln 2019 59 $14bln 2018 46 $11bln SPCX: The SPAC and New Issue ETF www.spcxetf.com Best case is that AI is going to put pressure on a lot of industries, financial planning is one of them. If all you are doing is providing some retirement planning calculations and simple asset allocation then good luck…. We used AI for retirement planning advice and were surprised by what we found Should you use AI to plan your retirement? www.marketwatch.com/story/we-used-ai-for-retirement-planning-advice-and-were-surprised-by-what-we-found-dc64e936?mod=home_lead There has been a lot of talk about rising Japanese bond yields. Below is analysis from Jim Colquitt who will be joining the research team at Tuttle Market Insights…. Japanese Bond Yields May Be The Tell… Last week, there was much talk about the weak auction of 20-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), which sent yields “skyrocketing” (see chart below). “Skyrocketing” might be an exaggeration, but it certainly got everyone’s attention. Here’s a quick primer on why the Japanese bond market matters to the US and what to expect going forward. 🔺 Why Are Japanese Bond Yields Rising? Japanese bond yields are rising primarily because: 1. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Shift : The BoJ has been gradually unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy, including yield curve control (YCC). This allows long-term yields like the 20-year JGB to rise more freely. 2. Inflation Expectations : Inflation in Japan, long subdued, has shown signs of picking up. This reduces the need for aggressive monetary stimulus. 3. Global Yield Pressures : Rising global interest rates (especially in the U.S. and Europe) put upward pressure on Japanese yields through capital flows and comparative yield dynamics. 🇯🇵 ➡️ 🇺🇸 Why Would Rising Japanese Yields Impact the U.S. Market? Global capital flows respond to relative yields. Here's how Japanese yields matter: 1. Capital Repatriation Japanese institutional investors (e.g., pension funds, insurers) are major buyers of foreign bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries. As JGB yields rise, U.S. Treasuries become less attractive on a risk-adjusted and currency-hedged basis . This can lead to the selling of U.S. Treasuries , pushing yields higher . 2. Higher Global Rates Rising Japanese yields contribute to an upward shift in the global yield curve . Investors demand higher returns across markets to compensate for increased opportunity costs. 3. Currency Effects If Japanese investors stop buying U.S. assets or sell them, it can lead to USD weakening and JPY strengthening , further impacting capital flows and corporate profits for U.S. multinationals. 📉 Implications for U.S. Markets 🏦 U.S. Bonds Yields Rise : Selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries → Higher yields. Long-duration bonds (e.g., 10-year, 30-year) are especially vulnerable. 📈 U.S. Stocks Valuation Pressure : Higher yields mean higher discount rates, lowering the present value of future earnings → bad for growth stocks (e.g., tech). Financial Tightening : Rising yields can tighten financial conditions even without Fed action. Sector Rotation : Investors may rotate from high-valuation sectors (e.g., tech) into value or cyclical names. ⬆️ Volatility Risk If the JGB move is sharp and unexpected, it can destabilize global markets , leading to risk-off behavior and increased volatility. 🔮 What Should We Expect Going Forward? Moderate JGB Yield Increase : Gradual rise = contained impact. This could push U.S. bond yields higher and weigh on equity valuations. Sharp or Disorderly JGB Yield Spike : Could lead to a global bond sell-off and a broader equity market correction . Especially disruptive if BoJ loses control of the yield curve. 📊 Summary Table Market —> Effect from Rising JGB Yields U.S. Treasury Bonds —> Prices ↓, Yields ↑ U.S. Stocks (esp. Growth) —> Valuations ↓, Risk ↑ Dollar (USD) —> Potentially weaker if capital flows reverse Volatility —> Likely ↑ in both bond and equity markets Nuclear Hype or Holy Grail? What Trump’s Executive Orders Really Mean for Your Portfolio The big story Friday was the nuclear names after Trump’s executive order. Stocks like UEC and OKLO where up over 20%. Jeremy’s pick, LTBR, was up over 40%. Up until last week I thought that the future of data center power had to be nuclear, now I am not that sure, more on that later. In the meantime I had GPT do a deep dive on this…. On Friday, nuclear stocks roared after President Trump signed four executive orders intended to fast-track America’s nuclear renaissance. URA (Global X Uranium ETF) spiked +11.6% , and names like Constellation (CEG) and Vistra (VST) closed up solidly on the day. You might be tempted to chase the momentum. But should you? Let’s be blunt— this isn’t 1945. It’s not 1986. It’s not even 2005. Nuclear is having its third big renaissance moment in 20 years. But this time, it’s different. And if you’re not careful, you’ll wind up holding a radioactive bag. 1. What Trump Signed—and What He Didn’t The Four Orders Include: Fast-tracking SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) for defense installations Streamlining NRC regulations for faster approval timelines Accelerating nuclear test facilities and modernizing safety rules Rebuilding the nuclear industrial base , mainly via regulatory reform ❝ Here’s what’s missing: money . There’s no new federal spending in these orders. No Defense Production Act invocation. No $50B earmarked for reactor deployment. Just process reform. And that’s where the gap between stock prices and business fundamentals starts to widen. 2. The Reality: Nuclear Is a Long Game (and a Costly One) Supply Chain Dependency The U.S. imports over 90% of its enriched uranium—much from Russia and Kazakhstan. Building a domestic fuel cycle requires not only money, but time, infrastructure, and public/private cooperation that hasn’t existed since the Cold War. Build Time Even “fast” SMRs take 7–10 years from permit to power-on. Large-scale reactors? 15+ years , if not canceled mid-construction. Earnings Void Most “pure-play” nuclear developers (e.g., uranium miners, SMR hopefuls) are pre-revenue or deeply negative on cash flow. They're hype-dependent —not cash-flow–generative. 3. The Smart Way to Play Nuclear: Stick to Cash Generators You’re absolutely right, Steve. The only credible names you can hang your hat on right now are: Ticker Company Rating Why It’s Investable Now BWXT BWX Technologies 9/10 Profitably builds nuclear components for U.S. subs, DOE programs, SMRs. FLR Fluor Corp. 8/10 Major EPC contractor on SMRs (NuScale, etc.); earnings power + defense tilt. CCJ Cameco 8/10 World's largest uranium miner, with offtake to Western buyers; real revenue. CEG Constellation Energy 7/10 Largest U.S. nuclear utility; strong margins and political tailwinds. VST Vistra Corp. 7/10 Conventional IPP pivoting into nuclear via M&A; free cash flow machine. 4. Who You Should Be Cautious On Ticker Company / Type Rating Why You Should Be Skeptical URA Uranium ETF (global) 5/10 Huge move Friday; contains speculative, pre-revenue miners and global risk. SMR Plays NuScale, TerraPower, etc. 4/10 Long build timelines, tech risk, negative earnings, and political exposure. Explorers Deep Yellow, Denison Mines 3/10 Still drilling holes, no production, totally dependent on spot uranium price. 5. My Playbook (Tactical & Strategic) Short-Term (Next 30–60 Days) Take profits on Friday’s pop, especially in URA and junior miners. Don’t get caught flat-footed when the hype fades and reality sets in. Buy dips in BWXT and FLR , who will be on the first wave of real contract wins once budgets catch up to policy. Long-Term (12–24 Months) Build a core nuclear sleeve around: BWXT (defense-grade nuclear parts + DOE trust) CCJ (uranium monopoly + geopolitical hedge) CEG (cash-flow nuclear operator with embedded option value) Let others chase Reddit-fueled uranium juniors. You want nuclear names that print cash today —and won’t need five Senate hearings, six permits, and a $4B capital raise just to survive the next market cycle. Bottom Line Trump’s executive orders are a signal , not a solution. They’re a starting pistol, not a signing ceremony. There will be winners in the nuclear renaissance—but they’ll be the ones who can weather the long build, fight off foreign supply chains, and make money now . So yes— you were right to be skeptical . Nuclear’s future is bright, but you better wear the right shades… or you’ll get burned. Beaming Power from Space: Sci-Fi Energy Tech Just Got Shockingly Real Here’s what has shaken my conviction on nuclear…. We are going to try to get this guy on our podcast because the technologies he’s talking about are insane. On the power side he talks about being able to have a transmitter in space that takes solar energy, converts it, and sends it to an antenna that can turn it into electricity. If that’s possible, it’s a game changer. I had GPT take a deep dive on this…. On a recent episode of The Sean Ryan Show , retired General Steve Kwast —a former commander of Air Education and Training Command—sat down to talk about one of the most explosive energy concepts you’ve probably never heard of: space-based solar power (SBSP). The idea is simple. The implications? World-altering. ❝ Imagine a solar farm in orbit , harvesting sunlight 24/7 without clouds, nighttime, or weather interference—then beaming that energy back to Earth using high-frequency microwave or laser transmission. Sound like science fiction? That’s what they said about Elon’s reusable rockets… and now SpaceX lands boosters before you’ve finished your coffee. 1. How It Works (and Why It’s Not Crazy Anymore) Kwast referenced a real system that’s already been tested : a solar-collecting satellite in space that transmits energy wirelessly as microwaves or radio waves , down to a rectenna (rectifying antenna) on Earth. The signal is then converted into usable electricity. This isn’t a “concept”—it’s real enough for the U.S. Naval Research Lab and the California Institute of Technology to have already demonstrated early-stage systems in orbit: Caltech’s MAPLE satellite recently successfully beamed power wirelessly from space to Earth for the first time. The U.S. Space Force has been investing in SBSP for secure, off-grid battlefield energy. China has its own orbital power beaming station scheduled for demonstration by 2028 . 2. Why It Matters Baseload Solar Power : Ground-based solar only works 20–30% of the time. In space, solar availability is ~99% . Geopolitical Independence : No pipelines, no ports, no grids to sabotage—ideal for military or remote deployment. Game-Changer for the Developing World : Pop-up electricity grids in rural Africa, island nations, and war zones. Energy Cost Compression : Once the infrastructure is in orbit, ongoing delivery costs are minimal. Kwast’s claim that this will be “cheaper than current electricity within a decade” isn’t far-fetched. It just depends on one thing: who builds it first . 3. Is It Feasible in the Next 1–5 Years? ❝ Short answer: Early-stage yes, grid-scale no. What we’ll likely see first are: Demonstration-scale satellites transmitting low-voltage beams to military rectennas (already happening). Prototypes for disaster relief , remote military bases, or communications infrastructure. Commercial pilot programs by 2028–2030 if investment accelerates. The bottlenecks today are: Launch costs (dropping thanks to SpaceX and Rocket Lab). In-orbit assembly and transmission precision. Regulatory airspace/power bandwidth coordination on Earth. This won’t kill traditional energy soon—but it will start taking market share at the edges in areas solar and wind can’t reach. 4. Who Could Win Big Ticker Company Rating Why It Wins in Space-Based Power LHX L3Harris Technologies 9/10 Makes rectennas and satellite comms hardware; already works with Space Force. RTX RTX Corp. (Raytheon) 8/10 Deep roots in directed energy, satellite defense, and beam transmission tech. PLTR Palantir Technologies 8/10 AI and logistics orchestration for satellite-based power routing. NOC Northrop Grumman 8/10 In-space assembly and defense satellite systems experience. SPCE Virgin Galactic 6/10 If they pivot to orbital payloads for government/military test satellites. SpaceX (private) 10/10 Starship may become the platform that makes SBSP cost-effective —watch for Starlink spinoff partnerships. 5. What to Avoid (for Now) Ticker Company Rating Why It’s Not the Right Play Yet NEE NextEra Energy 4/10 Too heavily tied to Earth-based wind/solar infrastructure. ENPH Enphase Energy 3/10 Inverter tech unlikely to be relevant for orbital systems. TAN Invesco Solar ETF 3/10 Old-world solar names won’t benefit from orbital power beaming. 6. GPT’s Tactical Plan Position now in LHX, RTX, and PLTR as infrastructure beneficiaries. Hold NOC as a stealth orbital bet —especially if DoD contracts expand. Track private partnerships : If SpaceX or Amazon’s Kuiper teams up with any public rectenna builder, that stock becomes a moonshot candidate . Ignore the crowd chasing uranium or Earth-based solar. This is a whole new playbook. Bottom Line In five years, space may become not just the final frontier , but the cheapest power plant in the sky . Trump’s nuclear orders grabbed headlines—but beaming power from orbit may prove even more disruptive in the long run. While Wall Street fumbles with lithium, uranium, and offshore wind, smart money should start looking up . This isn’t sci-fi anymore. It’s aerospace, microwave physics, and geopolitical necessity. The question is: will you invest before it’s obvious—or after everyone else already has? Buy and Hold Sucks The Gut-Wrenching Play in Investing Right Now: Buy and Hold The biggest weekly decline for stocks since early April is again testing the risk appetite of everyday investors www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-investing-strategy-buy-hold-36dea8de?mod=hp_lead_pos3 I am a big believer that the conventional wisdom in investing is neither. Concepts like the 60/40 portfolio, asset allocation, factor investing, and buy and hold, sound good on the surface, and appear to work most of the time. They appear to work not because they are valid, but because most of the time the market goes up and a rising tide lifts all boats. This is what is usually cited in favor of buy and hold…. ❝ History is on his side: Research shows that missing just a handful of the stock market’s best days in the past several decades could shrink an investor’s long-term returns by more than 30 percentage points. Those standout days frequently happen in downbeat markets: Two of the S&P 500’s best days on record took place during October 2008. But they never talk about what happens if you miss a handful of the worst days, or months. I am not saying that you can, or should, time the market, you can’t. What I am saying is that you can be much smarter about your investments. That’s where the --- H.E.A.T. Formula comes in….. H- Hedges-If you always have hedges in place then you can sit through downturns much easier. Bonds are not a hedge, and have been going down with stocks this year, which does not help. E-Edges—If you look for edges you can potentially improve the returns of the unhedged part of your portfolio. A-Asymmetry—Setting up your trades and your portfolio for asymmetrical returns can help a lot during downturns. Strategies like using long calls for equity exposure mean your risk is defined and your upside is unlimited. Assets like pre merger SPACs can also help. T-Themes- Investing in the top themes can also increase the returns in the unhedged part of your portfolio. Trump’s Inner Circle themes have done very well during this recent downturn. How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before you go how I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Wealth Management-Coming Soon Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0