타코 또는 FAFO?

TACO or FAFO? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts TACO or FAFO? TACO or FAFO? Jul 14, 2025 Subscribe now Share Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Here’s what’s happening today: — # (# ) The market was rattled by tariff fears on Friday. It could have sold off a lot more, but it didn’t. ❝ It is surely only a matter of time before the market starts to focus on the positive of a more doveish Fed. A Fed rate cut by September must remain the base case if inflation remains benign in the sense of the impact of the tariffs continuing not to show up in the data. All this is why perhaps the biggest risk to the US stock market remains a significant back-up in long-term Treasury bond yields, as indeed has been the case ever since Trump retreated from his tariff agenda. Jefferies I continue to believe we are overbought, but that the tariff stuff is more noise than anything else at this point. JP Morgan looks a little more negative on tariffs…. ❝ With June data just starting to trickle in, it is still too early to track the impact of tariffs on firms’ pricing behavior. There is no doubt that the Trump administration’s tariffs will impose a drag, but who bears the brunt of this cost remains to be seen. Our baseline forecast – based on prior business behavior during the past trade war – suggests firms will pass on the bulk of the costs to consumers, squeezing US household purchasing power and in turn weighing on consumer spending. Firms could instead cut into their own margins to avoid price hikes, though this too would drag on US growth by promoting some pullback in firms’ spending. Finally, foreign exporters could instead lower their prices to offset the higher tariff costs, thus protecting their US market share but shifting the incidence of the tariff cost from the US to its trading partners. JP Morgan Jefferies is more positive….. ❝ We see the 30% tariffs announcement as an opening move and eventual tariffs are likely to set lower in the 10-15% range. The announcement of higher tariffs is a negotiation tactic which should encourage EU and other countries to make a deal quickly. However, the recent tariff announcements over last week also highlight the uncertainty around tariffs and that uncertainty has probably moved up a notch. Mohit Kumar, Jefferies With market’s a bit red on tariff fears, the action today likely is going to be in Bitcoin (above $122k as we write) and crypto sympathy. SPACs had a strong day and have continued their comeback from the CCCM mess. CLBR is going to be interesting this week. No telling where this could go, but has the potential to be a massive mover…. — # (# ) We’ve been taking profits along the way in SPCX , basically have runners at this point in case this has a massive pop. Once again, the real action was in themes. Drones, crypto, and precious metals all did well. The T in the --- H.E.A.T. Formula is for Themes. For newer readers we are big believers that you don’t invest in asset classes, factors, or styles, you invest in today and tomorrow’s top themes. 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes-AI Today we are talking AI and AI infrastructure. This remains a target rich environment with drones, crypto, space, Trump trades, etc, but good old fashion AI and AI infrastructure still should be a core of your portfolio. Cooling stocks sold off Thursday on the AMZN news. A couple of brokerage firms put out pieces on why it was overdone….. ❝ PAIGE HANSON (INDUSTRIALS) - VRT (-6%): Rebuttal from Bulls & Additional Feedback on Selloff (more than half recovered already) – factors are certainly not helping today as we’re continuing the MTD trend of momentum/crowded longs for sale & sharp squeeze on other side in underweight/shorted cyclicals (will leave that topic of another blast), but the selloff in the data center industrial component names, specifically liquid cooling players like VRT, NVT etc is greater and tied to the CNBC coverage last night of AWS’s decision (not new, first announced in Dec ’ • 24) to focus on developing as much of the infrastructure in-house, with the quoted parts in CNBC (from a YouTube posted by AWS on their new product) painting liquid cooling in a negative light, but there are multiple reasons folks are pushing back vehemently on this move as I’ve outlined below. Majority of investors felt earlier selloff was the wrong reaction, an overreaction and the px action with dip-buying is already healthy to see with move lower cut in half. That said, we’ve had close to zero debate on VRT for almost 12 weeks now (!) as the stock has rallied significantly off lows in April so that’s contributing to the panic/ pot’l overreaction to this first non positive AI infra headline in multiple months – the key in whether this is the start of VRT selling or a buy the dip opp lies in my opinion in the below rebuttal arguments from investors (and why I’m with the bulls on this one), but would love to hear your thoughts and if anything not included below in defense of VRT. Also, if you believe there is concrete evidence this displaces VRT in the supply chain or any other fundamental read on VRT negatively from this, I’d love to hear it (I’ve heard almost none of this so far FWIW, ut as we know from summer 2024 and winter/spring 2025, tech investors love to go after VRT on short side so I will have ears open for specifics). JP Morgan ❝ Implications of AWS Custom Liquid Cooling System Published July 10 2025 14:08:58 EDT On July-9, Amazon Web Services published a blog post spotlighting their new custom AI liquid cooled servers for Nvidia Blackwell GPUs. This is not “new news”. There was also a June-11 post on how they were close to launching this custom system. It is now common for hyperscale players to develop their own next-gen liquid cooling systems. Importantly, electrical OEs like NVT provide critical development/test support to hyperscalers for these custom systems. We do not see the OEs like NVT and VRT being disintermediated. We view any DeepSeek-like panic selling on this development to be overdone/unwarranted. Bottom line is that the AWS announcement of new custom liquid cooled servers is not new news in the liquid cooling industry nor should it imply that AWS is becoming a new competitor to existing liquid cooling OEs including Vertiv, nVent, Motivair (Schneider), or Modine. Our understanding is that hyperscalers typically partner with leading liquid cooling vendors in R&D/testing, which has been one of the drivers of nVent’s +4x capacity expansion since Jan-2023 for manufacturing and precise testing of these liquid cooling systems. Yes, this means that AWS will have a custom liquid cooling “white box” for its AI servers, an unbranded server that is co-developed via R&D partnership. What we do not know at this time is how much these customer R&D efforts drive Vertiv and nVent’s revenues currently, and who AWS has partnered with. Part the reason you are seeing these custom system announcements is because there is little standardization in the liquid cooling industry to date. The benefit of efficiencies/competitive advantages in having customized liquid cooling solutions means we are likely to see more of these announcements from hyperscalers. See AWS July-9 blog post here and June-11 post here RBC ❝ SUMMARY: Vertiv shares dropped as much as 14% today (XLI closed +0.5%) after reports that Amazon had launched “a cooling competitor for AI servers”, according to major media outlets. While liquid cooling for data centers is currently a relatively small part of Vertiv’s overall business, it represents a disproportionate share of prospective growth. So, it’s understandable to see underperformance on the back of these headlines, in our view. But we believe these fears are misguided -- just as they were during two pullbacks in the past year, when Vertiv shares dropped significantly only to rebound strongly. We think this time is no different. Based on our checks, we do not believe that Amazon is competing with Vertiv’s liquid cooling offering. This would entail manufacturing of many components like coolant distribution units (CDUs), manifolds, pumps, radiators, heat exchangers, and cooling fluid, in addition to fans, seals, bearing-less solutions and motors UBS VRT is the big name everyone knows, NVT is below the radar screen, I own both…. Needham had a report on the optical transceiver market, which is foundational to AI and cloud infrastructure….. Needham projects those sales to hit $15 billion in 2025 , growing >50% YoY , as hyperscalers expand data center capacity for AI workloads. This ramp has geopolitical tailwinds : Western service providers are reshoring supply chains previously concentrated in China. 🔍 Company-by-Company Analysis Lumentum (LITE) — 🎯 Top Pick Strong exposure to 400G+ optical systems through EML laser assembly. You’re seeing both organic growth and share gains as data center providers diversify supply sources. Rating: 9.0/10 – Nearly a perfect pitch: clean leverage to AI infrastructure build, limited China exposure, proven execution. Coherent (COHR) — 🟢 Core Infrastructure Play The global leader in transceiver components, with a durable position in laser sources. Benefit from both premium optics and volume growth. Rating: 8.5/10 – A high-quality, stable exposure, though slightly less AI-specialized than Lumentum. Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) — 🟡 Up‑and‑Coming Beneficiary Smaller 400G provider but poised to gain share due to diversified supply chain needs. Execution risk remains elevated. Rating: 7.5/10 – Conviction with caution: upside from share gain, but limited scale and execution risk. Finisar (FN) — 🟡 Transitioning Exposure Historically NVDA-dependent but now adding Amazon as a new hyperscaler client. Needs diversification beyond FPGA/AI wallet, but the network shift helps. Rating: 7.0/10 – Strengthening, but early in repositioning; upside to come with client diversification and execution clarity. Citi put out a long report that hit a few areas of AI, I had GPT summarize the main points…. 🔑 Key Takeaways from Citi’s Report AI Hardware & Networking → Strong Conviction Big 5 US data center capex expected to grow 15% in 2026 (vs. Street’s 9%) Top Picks: Arista (ANET) – lifted TP to $123; Citi sees it as the top 2H play due to Ethernet switching TAM expansion Amphenol (APH) – Buy; balanced end market exposure, lead AI interconnect position TE Connectivity (TEL) – upgraded to Buy on improving auto/industrial margin outlook SMCI – Super Micro Citi is Neutral : sees strong demand tailwinds from Blackwell GB200/300 ramp but has margin concerns due to rising competitive pressure from Dell and HPE TP raised to $52 from $37 based on 13.5x FY27 EPS vs prior 9-10x multiple AAPL – Apple Cautious tone: short-term upside from demand pull-in (tariffs, China promos), but AI delay and pending Section 232 tariff decisions create overhang iPhone unit forecasts adjusted slightly, but FY25/FY26 largely flat TP held at $240; valuation at 28x FY27 EPS GOOGL – Top Pick Citi remains bullish; 85% of respondents still use Google as their primary search tool GenAI/social gaining share, but incremental rather than cannibalistic Maintains Buy , TP $203 Roblox (RBLX) – Raised TP from $100 to $123; robust 2Q data and positive app store ruling implications Corning (GLW) – Strong execution in optical and solar; TP raised to $60 WDC & STX – Both rated Buy with raised TPs based on improved HDD visibility and disciplined capex AMD / INTC – Neutral. Strength in notebook shipments seen as temporary tariff pull-in, not structural CDW & LOGI – Neutral; good near-term execution but macro and valuation limit upside Packaging (AMCR, SW, CCK) – CCK seen as beat/raise setup; SW noted for valuation dislocation 🧠 Analyst Opinion: SMCI vs AAPL 📦 SMCI (Rating: 7/ • 10) Pros : Leading server buildout partner for AI workloads GB200/Blackwell ramp = tailwind Cons : Increasing competition → compressing margins Citi raised TP but maintained Neutral Verdict : Tactically interesting , but wait for earnings clarity or a broader pullback. 🍏 AAPL (Rating: 6.5/ • 10) Pros : Pricing power and install base still strong Margins intact Cons : Delayed AI rollout Pending tariffs and China demand fragility = 2H uncertainty Verdict : Hold or trim ; rotate to stronger AI momentum names like MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA. 📈 Watchlist: Stocks Rated 8 or Higher Ticker Name Rating Justification ANET Arista Networks 9 Top AI switch play; strong 2H catalyst setup APH Amphenol 8.5 AI interconnect leader, stable margins TEL TE Connectivity 8 Upgraded to Buy; industrial margin recovery GOOGL Alphabet 9 Dominant ad/search with GenAI optionality RBLX Roblox 8 Robust user data + App Store boost WDC Western Digital 8 Tight supply, cloud demand, capex discipline STX Seagate 8 Strong demand and structural industry health GLW Corning 8 Optical/solar tailwinds + upside surprise risk 💼 Summary Citi’s latest update confirms the increasing divergence between high-conviction AI infrastructure names and legacy tech or over-owned consumer hardware. The winners in 2H25 are likely to be those levered to enterprise AI infrastructure and optical/connectivity (ANET, APH, TEL), along with companies benefiting from normalized storage markets (STX, WDC). Margins are now a key battleground, and SMCI faces real competitive heat , while AAPL must prove its AI execution path or risk derating. Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0