TACO는 시장에 위산 역류를 일으킵니다

TACO Gives the Market Acid Reflux THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts TACO Gives the Market Acid Reflux TACO Gives the Market Acid Reflux The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle Jun 2, 2025 Subscribe now Share I will be on Fox Business News this morning at 7:10AM EST talking about TACO and the market In Today’s Issue: Model Portfolio Changes—-Adding to Pre Merger SPACs Our Next Webinar— - Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine TACO Gives the Market Acid Reflux Bitcoin’s Next Boom: From Shadow Asset to Strategic Reserve Oracle’s $40B AI Bet: The Abilene Gambit and the Future of Cloud Dominance Dell’s AI Surge: Navigating Growth Amidst Margin Pressures and more…….. ETF Model Portfolio Change We are upping our pre merger SPAC allocation to 20% (SPCX) and decreasing TBIL to 10%. This is due to the asymmetrical potential of pre merger SPACs that have an NAV floor and the ability to play a lot of our favorite themes, especially Trump’s inner circle. — # (# ) Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Thu, Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT - Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside - How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does. - My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street To register: register.gotowebinar.com/register/8214490301707453020 TACO Gives the Market Acid Reflux — # (# ) — # (# ) Friday started out with this, which caused a big selloff in the morning…. Everyone seemed to ignore this…… — # (# ) — # (# ) Then the market rallied back to close slightly negative, probably because of this….. — # (# ) After hours we got this…. With all that’s going on….. — # (# ) On Thursday I mentioned that Bitcoin was starting to look weak, that continued. I am now out of my Bitcoin, but looking for a spot to get back in, watching that $100K level…. While I cut back on some of the really speculative crypto treasury companies, I still have my core holdings there….. Companies like GameStop and Trump Media are buying bitcoin. Here’s how investors should proceed. Bitcoin is known to be volatile. However, a growing number of public companies have started to buy and hold the digital asset on their balance sheets, as bitcoin reached a new high last week. www.marketwatch.com/story/companies-like-gamestop-and-trump-media-are-buying-bitcoin-heres-how-investors-should-proceed-4c3c70c2?mod=home_lead They should be skeptical, we will ride this for as long as it lasts. No illusions that this is a long term strategy, maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. Do think with the tailwinds around crypto this is something likely to be interesting for at least the next 3 ½ years at least…. Saylor's bitcoin buying strategy is 'exploding' globally, but Wall Street is skeptical Michael Saylor applauds efforts by other companies to replicate his strategy of using cash to buy bitcoin. www.cnbc.com/2025/05/31/saylor-bitcoin-buying-strategy-exploding-but-wall-street-skeptical.html The semi’s look like they are starting to break down, led by NVDA, which reversed it’s earnings gains. I’m also out of NVDA now and would be watching the 200 day….. Broader tech also looking a bit toppy….. I took some profits in my longs on Friday and added some ARKK puts just in case. I’ve talked a few times about my ARKK strategy, I like to buy puts when it breaks key moving averages. Friday was the 10 day. Will be watching the 20, 200, and 50 for more potential adds. I did finally get out of TLT. I think the undercut and rally was pretty easy money, but from here there are too many forces swirling around the bond market and there are better opportunities elsewhere….. So far this morning markets are weaker, probably mostly tariff related. Gold and the miners are strong as are copper and silver. We did have some actionable moves there Friday. NEM had a pocket pivot…. SCCO had an undercut and rally at the 50 day….. Gold miners continue to be in a nice uptrend, if you don’t have exposure I’d be looking for continuation moves to add it. Copper names have been in a tight range since coming off the liberation day lows, I’d be looking for potential spots to add there if you aren’t in already. I got stopped out of my AA because of this….. Auto Stocks Fall After Trump Moves to Double Steel and Aluminum Tariffs -WSJ This would be a disaster…. — # (# ) I’ve been focused in on Bitcoin and Bitcoin treasury, but I have been ignoring the miners. Coming out to the Bitcoin conference Clear Street wrote a report. One of the interesting items was the potential for some of the miners to convert to REITs. They all look more like shorts at the moment than anything else but I will be watching for potential entries….. Bitcoin’s Next Boom: From Shadow Asset to Strategic Reserve Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset for tech-savvy libertarians. It's becoming a strategic reserve instrument for corporations, a geopolitical tool, and — if the Trump administration gets its way — a pillar of national security policy. Welcome to the post-halving, post-ETF, post-reckoning world of crypto in 2025. Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas wasn’t just another crypto pep rally. It was a declaration: Bitcoin is going institutional — and political. Here’s what we learned, and why it could lead to a seismic revaluation in miners, infrastructure players, and treasury-aligned companies. 💼 From Balance Sheets to Backbones: Bitcoin as a Treasury Asset 113 companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, totaling nearly 770,000 BTC — that’s almost 4% of circulating supply. With GameStop, MercadoLibre, and Japan’s Metaplanet joining the ranks, this trend is no longer niche. It’s a playbook. The Michael Saylor model is going global. Winners: MSTR (MicroStrategy): Still the biggest balance sheet BTC play. Its leverage on BTC price action is unmatched. Rating: 9/10 MARA (Marathon): Large holder, potential treasury-momentum beneficiary. Rating: 7/10 GME (GameStop): A wild card — their pivot to crypto as a treasury asset is high-risk but headline-grabbing. Rating: 5/10 ⚡ Mining 2.0: Survival of the Efficient Post-halving economics are merciless. The winners will be those who either go vertical (energy ownership) or pivot to AI/HPC computing — possibly both. The Clear Winners in Mining Efficiency and Strategy: CLSK (CleanSpark) : The current gold standard in efficiency and cost control. Pure-play BTC mining exposure with scale. Rating: 10/10 WULF (TeraWulf) & CORZ (Core Scientific) : Strong positions in AI/HPC pivot potential. Energy integration is a key edge. Rating: 8.5/10 HUT (Hut • 8) : Now tied to “American Bitcoin” with Eric Trump backing. Political tailwinds could matter. Rating: 8/10 CIFR (Cipher Mining) : Lean, well-run, and exposed to high-performance energy infrastructure. Rating: 8/10 Potential Losers: BTBT and BITF : Lower efficiency, weaker balance sheets, and unclear pivot strategy. Rating: 5/10 RIOT : Once a leader, now looking operationally sluggish and politically out of favor. Rating: 6/10 🧠 From Mining to Machine Learning: The AI/HPC Angle Miners aren’t just chasing hashes — they’re chasing contracts . The move to host AI and HPC infrastructure could be a game-changer, especially as the energy footprint of AI grows. If AI demand continues at this pace, miners with efficient cooling, infrastructure-ready locations, and political protection could be re-rated like data center REITs. 🏢 REIT Conversions: The Next Frontier? The report suggests a long-term path where miners — especially those offering HPC hosting — convert to REITs , unlocking 20x+ EBITDA valuations. While this is several years off, the narrative alone could drive speculative capital into the highest-quality players. Key Watch List: CLSK, CORZ, WULF — possible REIT conversion candidates if HPC ramps Equinix (EQIX) and Digital Realty (DLR) — indirect peers that could either benefit from partnerships or face competition 🇺🇸 Trump’s Crypto Doctrine: Deregulate, Decentralize, Dominate With J.D. Vance, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump all in attendance, the message was loud and clear: crypto is no longer just allowed — it’s endorsed. CBDCs? Dead on arrival. Stablecoins? Getting federal legislation (GENIUS Act) and bipartisan support. Bitcoin in 401(k)s? Back on the table after the DoL reversed its 2022 stance. The Trumps are betting big on decentralized finance as a hedge against central bank overreach and China’s digital yuan. Whether you love them or hate them, they’re pouring political capital into crypto. Winners: Miners with U.S. flags and GOP ties Stablecoin issuers (if regulated federally): USDC, Paxos, possibly PayPal Self-custody platforms and crypto-401(k) intermediaries 🔓 Security Note: Quantum Risk, Still Long-Term Yes, BlackRock added a quantum computing risk clause to its BTC trust filings — but this feels like boilerplate caution, not a real near-term threat. Bitcoin developers are already exploring quantum-resistant upgrades. Not an actionable concern today. 🧭 Conclusion: This isn’t just Bitcoin’s moment — it’s the infrastructure era . CleanSpark, Cipher, Core Scientific, and TeraWulf aren’t just mining coins — they’re building digital railroads . The next wave of returns won’t come from holding BTC — they’ll come from powering and protecting the networks that run it. In short: Bitcoin is going institutional, political, and productive. And this time, it’s not about who bought early — it’s about who can scale, secure, and serve. Oracle’s $40B AI Bet: The Abilene Gambit and the Future of Cloud Dominance ORCL had a pocket pivot on Friday. I don’t currently own it, but that’s more because I was looking to be a seller on Friday…… Oracle is making a monumental move in the AI infrastructure space, investing $40 billion in Nvidia's GB200 chips to power a new data center in Abilene, Texas. This initiative is part of the ambitious $500 billion Stargate project, a collaboration between OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, and Abu Dhabi's MGX, aiming to build AI-focused data centers globally. 🏗️ The Abilene Data Center: A New AI Powerhouse Scale and Capacity : The Abilene facility is projected to deliver 1.2 gigawatts of power, making it one of the most powerful AI supercomputers in the United States. It will house approximately 400,000 Nvidia GB200 chips, organized into 11,000 NVL72 rack systems, totaling nearly 16 zettaFLOPs of compute power. Construction and Timeline : The first phase began in June 2024, with two buildings expected to be energized in the first half of 2025. The second phase, adding six more buildings, commenced in March 2025 and is slated for completion by mid-2026. 🤝 Strategic Partnerships and Shifts OpenAI's Transition : OpenAI is moving away from its exclusive reliance on Microsoft for computing power, partnering with Oracle to lease the Abilene data center for 15 years. This shift allows OpenAI to diversify its infrastructure and meet growing computational demands. Oracle's Role : By leasing the data center and providing the necessary hardware, Oracle positions itself as a key player in the AI infrastructure landscape, potentially rivaling Amazon, Microsoft, and Google in cloud services. ⚡ Power and Infrastructure Challenges Energy Requirements : Operating the full capacity of the data center may require more than the planned 1.2 gigawatts, considering each NVL72 rack's peak power draw and additional cooling needs. This raises questions about the facility's ability to handle the load and the need for innovative energy solutions. Energy Solutions : To address these challenges, developers have filed permits to operate natural gas turbines on-site and are exploring renewable energy sources and modular nuclear reactors to ensure a stable power supply. 💡 Investment Implications Oracle's Position : This massive investment underscores Oracle's commitment to expanding its cloud services and AI capabilities. By securing a long-term partnership with OpenAI, Oracle could see significant growth in its cloud revenue streams. Market Dynamics : The move may intensify competition among cloud service providers, prompting other tech giants to accelerate their AI infrastructure investments. In summary, Oracle's $40 billion investment in AI infrastructure marks a significant step in its evolution as a cloud service provider. The Abilene data center not only strengthens Oracle's position in the AI race but also reflects the broader trend of tech giants investing heavily in AI capabilities to meet future demands. Dell’s AI Surge: Navigating Growth Amidst Margin Pressures DELL had an undercut and rally at the 200 day yesterday. I don’t currently own it but it could be buyable here…… Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) has reported a significant uptick in AI server demand, with $12.1 billion in orders this quarter and a backlog reaching $14.4 billion. This surge positions Dell as a formidable player in the AI infrastructure space, yet challenges in margins and traditional segments warrant a balanced perspective. 🧠 AI Server Demand: A Double-Edged Sword Record Orders : Dell's AI-optimized servers have seen unprecedented demand, with Q1 orders surpassing the entirety of fiscal 2025 shipments. Backlog and Revenue Projections : The company anticipates shipping approximately $7 billion of AI servers in Q2, contributing to an expected full-year AI server revenue exceeding $15 billion. Margin Considerations : While AI server demand is robust, the high production costs and competitive pricing are exerting pressure on margins, particularly within the Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG). 📊 Financial Highlights Q1 Performance : Revenue reached $23.38 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations. However, adjusted EPS of $1.55 fell short of the anticipated $1.69. Segment Growth : ISG : Revenue rose 12% to $10.3 billion, with servers and networking achieving a record $6.3 billion. Client Solutions Group (CSG) : Revenue increased by 5% to $12.5 billion, though consumer revenue declined by 19%. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns : Dell generated a record $2.8 billion in operating cash flow and returned $2.4 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends. 📉 Challenges Ahead Margin Pressures : The shift towards AI servers, while boosting revenue, is impacting gross margins due to higher production costs and competitive pricing. Consumer Segment Weakness : A notable 19% decline in consumer revenue indicates ongoing challenges in this segment, potentially offsetting gains from AI server sales. 🧾 Analyst Perspectives BofA (Buy, PT: $ • 155) : Highlights potential for over $30 billion in AI server revenue over the next two years, with EPS upside exceeding $3. Raymond James (Outperform, PT: $ • 150) : Notes that while AI server revenue guidance for F2Q26 is nearly triple prior estimates, margin challenges persist. Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT: $ • 135) : Emphasizes that AI momentum is accelerating, but clear emergence of AI attach is needed for a more bullish stance. JPMorgan (Overweight, PT: $ • 125) : Points to strong AI server demand as a bright spot, but remains cautious due to softness in higher-margin product lines. Goldman Sachs (Buy, PT: $ • 130) : Acknowledges AI server momentum and share buybacks offsetting EPS miss, with a raised FY2026 EPS guidance. Barclays (Equalweight, PT: $ • 123) : Expresses concern over the translation of AI server orders to revenue and potential pressure on gross margins. 🏁 Conclusion Dell's strategic investments in AI infrastructure are yielding significant order volumes, positioning the company as a key player in the AI server market. However, the associated margin pressures and challenges in traditional segments like consumer PCs necessitate a cautious approach. Investors should monitor how effectively Dell can convert its AI server backlog into profitable revenue and navigate the evolving competitive landscape. How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before you go how I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. 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