T.A.C.O.: 테헤란은 항상 겁을 먹나요?

T.A.C.O.: Tehran Always Chickens Out? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts T.A.C.O.: Tehran Always Chickens Out? T.A.C.O.: Tehran Always Chickens Out? Daily 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Your Financial GPS Matthew Tuttle Jun 13, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF Our Next Webinar— - Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine T.A.C.O.: Tehran Always Chickens Out? Undercut & Rally Patterns — Weaponizing the Shakeout GameStop Tumbles: Implications for Crypto Treasury Companies Hedges: Short Vietnam The Grid Shock Is Coming: 7 Ways to Profit From the Coming Power Crisis and more…….. Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Thu, Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT - Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside - How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does. - My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street To register: register.gotowebinar.com/register/8214490301707453020 T.A.C.O.: Tehran Always Chickens Out? My normal thought would be to fade this move but the market has felt extended the past couple of days and this could be a good excuse to take out some of the froth. Momentum stocks that helped drive market’s epic recovery are stalling out. Get ready for a ‘buyable’ pullbackMoAfter helping to power the U.S. stock market’s historic recovery from April’s tariff-induced selloff, many of the momentum names popular with individual investors are showing signs of exhaustion. mewww.marketwatch.com/story/momentum-stocks-that-helped-drive-the-markets-epic-recovery-are-stalling-get-ready-for-a-buyable-pullback-6ab6f25b?mod=home_leadntum stocks that helped drive market’s epic recovery are stalling out. Get ready for a ‘buyable’ pullback After helping to power the U.S. stock market’s historic recovery from April’s tariff-induced selloff, many of the momentum names popular with individual investors are showing signs of exhaustion. www.marketwatch.com/story/momentum-stocks-that-helped-drive-the-markets-epic-recovery-are-stalling-get-ready-for-a-buyable-pullback-6ab6f25b?mod=home_lead Typically, selloffs on wars (remember the Ukraine invasion) are short lived. Not sure how bullish I would be going into a weekend but will be looking for undercut and rally patterns on my watchlist (primer on undercut and rallies below). One also has to wonder if Iran has the stomach for a full blown war against Israel that could morph into a full blown war against the West. Meanwhile… — # (# ) 🔥 The HEAT Formula Playbook: Undercut & Rally Patterns — Weaponizing the Shakeout 📉 What Is an Undercut & Rally? At its core, an undercut and rally (U&R) is a shakeout reversal . Price undercuts a key prior low or major moving average , triggering stops and panic selling, only to reverse higher , trapping shorts and reenergizing bulls. It’s a setup rooted in deception and asymmetric psychology : Longs are flushed. Shorts get baited. Then the trap snaps shut. The U&R is your chance to buy fear — with a defined stop and explosive upside. 🧠 Why U&Rs Work Forced Liquidations — Algorithms and retail panic sell on the break of a prior low or MA. Liquidity Vacuum — Price spikes down into low liquidity before snapping back. Reclaim = Signal — The reclaim of a low or moving average is the entry — not the breakdown. 🔑 3 Types of Undercut & Rallies 1. Key Low U&R Price undercuts a prior swing low , then reverses higher. Stop-loss = just under that low. Trigger = reclaim of the low, ideally on volume. 2. Moving Average U&R Price dips under a moving average , then closes back above. Works best with the 10-day, 20-day, or 50-day for short-term trades. The 200-day works for long-term positional pivots and institutional shakeouts. 3. Double U&R Price undercuts multiple levels — e.g., prior low and 50-day MA — before reclaiming both. Higher conviction, often leads to trend reversals. 🎯 Entry + Risk/Reward Setup Buy Trigger : Close back above the undercut level (low or MA) Stop : Just below the undercut low (1-2% buffer) Target : Nearest resistance level or prior high Risk/Reward : Often 4–8x if timed correctly 📊 Moving Averages: When to Use Each MA Use Case Typical Context 10-day Very short-term U&R snapbacks Momentum resets, day trades 20-day Intermediate trades Shakeouts in fast-growth setups 50-day Strong medium-term pivots Core uptrends, high-volume bounces 200-day Long-term base turns Major trend reversals, institutional support levels GameStop Tumbles: Implications for Crypto Treasury Companies I have no illusions that what MicroStrategy, GameStop, and others are doing is a real business strategy. However, in the post Covid markets we live in, it is something that investors love. GameStop yesterday showed it’s not without risks. I did sell some puts on GME yesterday, would have much preffered an undercut and rally around $21 but took a flyer anyway. 🔚 What Happened with GME Yesterday GameStop announced a $1.75 billion convertible bond (0% interest, due • 2032) , with an option to upsell another $250 million. The funds are earmarked for general corporate purposes—including potentially more Bitcoin purchases. GME stock tumbled ~20% on heavy volume and chart destruction below its 50- and 200-day moving averages . 🧠 Structural Forces Behind the Drop Convertible Arbitrage Pressure Hedge funds buy the bond and short GME stock to hedge—putting immediate downside on equity linkedin.com . Equity Dilution Risk Future bond conversion dilutes common shares—investors hit the exits early . Cannibalized Core Business Weak Q1 revenue (-17% YoY) raises concern that the Bitcoin pivot distracts from retail fundamentals . Balance-Sheet Leverage Risk Debt-financed crypto adds leverage; if BTC drops, GME could be in a debt spiral dailyhodl.com . 📡 Implications for Other Crypto-Treasury Companies Company Similarities Differentiators Risk/Reward MicroStrategy (MSTR) Same convertible playbook; massive BTC exposure Deep history of Bitcoin reserves—market understands its strategy Similar pressure on equity, but better track record Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms Crypto on balance sheet; financing needs Debt is operational (mining capex) not treasury-targeted Subject to similar arbitrage/liquidity sell-offs Coinbase (COIN) Crypto treasury, stock/funding tied to BTC Primary business tied to trading volumes—more diversified May see equity pressure post-bond Tesla (TSLA) Previous Bitcoin treasury investor Stronger earnings cushion; less likely to lever up again Likely safe unless bond issuance is excessive Key takeaway : Convertible-driven crypto treasury strategies invite arbitrage selling, dilution risk, and leverage concerns—weakening short-term equity value even if crypto holdings rise. 💥 What Crypto-Treasury Companies Should Watch Announcement Reaction – Immediate equity sell-off due to shorting and dilution fears. Conversion Overhang – A looming supply cloud weighs on the stock over time. Leverage Sensitivity – Crypto drawdowns can cripple companies with large debt positions. Message to Market – Investors demand clarity on why and how much debt versus equity will be issued. 🔝 Winners & Losers: Ranked 1–10 by Strategic Odds Potential Winners (lower risk with strong fundamentals): MicroStrategy (9/ • 10) – Proven, transparent crypto strategy. Coinbase (8/ • 10) – Business is core to crypto; can absorb crypto volatility. Tesla (7/ • 10) – Strong earnings; weak reliance on BTC reserves. Marathon Digital (6/ • 10) – Mixed risk, but crypto-weighted business. At-Risk Short-Term (prone to bond risk and dilution): 5. GameStop (3/ • 10) – Core business in decline; crypto pivot unproven. 6. Riot Platforms (5/ • 10) – Mining company, but under crypto debt stress. 7. Other levered crypto miners (4/ • 10) – Operational risk + balance-sheet risk. 8. New crypto-treasury copycats (2/ • 10) – High dilution/leverage, no proven playbook. 🎯 For Daily --- H.E.A.T. Subscribers Convertible offering = two-day shock, not a trend trigger … until stock recovers fundamentals. Bitcoin alone doesn’t justify GME debt —buyers demand clarity on ROI and conversion terms. Best trade? Watch MSTR’s response—bond-market trust buffer sets stage. Leaders avoid this pitfall by financing growth with equity or using balanced risk management. 🔔 The Big Idea: Convertible bonds are a nuclear fusion of debt, dilution, and strategy. When used to finance crypto treasuries, they can destroy equity value even if Bitcoin surges. Only firms with bank-level discipline, transparent strategy, and long-term crypto conviction can avoid the trap. 🔥 The HEAT Formula Playbook: Hedges: Short Vietnam We are always looking for potential hedges. One area I always try to be on the look out for are companies and countries that will be hurt by whatever is going on in the world, especially if they are extended. I missed the upswing in Vietnamese stocks….. But they new look extended and if VNM breaks the 20 day EMA it could be shortable. This article caught my eye this morning so I had GPT take a deep dive…. Vietnam risks being the trade war’s biggest loser. Does it have a plan B? The south-east Asian country benefited hugely from US-China tensions, but the Trump tariffs strike at the heart of its economy www.ft.com/content/81caf263-7e5a-43bb-9ee4-1de1a89bc394 🌏 Macro Insight: Vietnam Now on the Hook Vietnam was the great beneficiary of the U.S.–China trade war, drawing massive inflows as firms reshored manufacturing under a “China +1” strategy. Investment surged from $15.8 bn in 2016 to $38.2 bn in 2024 , with GDP growth averaging ~7% . But in April, Trump imposed 46% “reciprocal” tariffs , targeting Vietnam for having a large U.S. trade surplus. That’s a bombshell—it instantly chips away at the low-cost competitiveness that made Vietnam the go-to alternative . 📉 Economic Gut-Punch Export dependency : Nearly 90% of GDP comes from exports; U.S. absorbs one-third. Tariff impact : HSC estimates growth slashed ~1.8 percentage points if rates remain high; even 20–25% tariffs dent margins significantly ft.com . Immediate fallout : Exporters like A&M Flooring saw orders “slow to a trickle”—US clients are spooked . FDI at risk : Multinationals (Apple, Nike, Intel) may flatten new investment; existing projects may stall ft.com . Geopolitical tilt : Facing tariffs, Vietnam strengthens ties with China—Xi met with leaders, offering investments and rail projects . 🚨 Sell Thesis for Vietnam (And Analogous Economies) High Export Leverage = High Debt Vulnerable to external shocks; tariffs are a clear economic shock hitting margins and orderbooks immediately. Political Risk Trump targets trade surpluses regardless of source; other export-heavy nations (Mexico, SE Asia) are ripe for similar treatment. Supply-Chain Backfire Hard to re-route shipments overnight; logistics shifts (e.g., to Colombia) add time and cost . Growth Re-rated The World Bank has already cut Vietnam’s growth forecast from 6.8% to 5.8% . 🕵️ Competitor Risks: Other Trade-Heavy Economies Cambodia & Thailand : Hit by similar tariffs (Cambodia ~49%), facing investor flight . Indonesia, Malaysia : Less export-dependent—but supply-chain ripple effects and regional slowdown will drag GDP . Mexico : Another surplus country; tariffs can return if Trump escalates . 💔 Winners Among the Losers Are there silver linings? A few: Local banks (VCB, TCB): If the government pivots to domestic investment, these may cushion the shock. Domestic consumer stocks : As exporters suffer, internal-facing firms may outperform. China-aligned infrastructure and finance : Closer ties with China may boost Chinese state-backed projects. 🧭 Risk-Adjusted Take: Should You Short Vietnam? ✅ Yes – tactical short : If tariffs stay at 20–46%, Vietnam's exports, currency, and equities could trade down 10–20%. ⚠️ No – risk : If negotiations yield exemptions before July, growth may rebound and shorts get squeezed. 🟡 Neutral long : If Vietnam shifts successfully toward domestic growth and away from global export dependence, there may be stabilization via reform—but not fast enough to offset near-term pain. 📋 TL;DR Recommendations Position Rationale Vietnam ETF short Exports impact hurts earnings; weak tech/manufacturing means slower growth. Avoid SE Asia long Cambodia, Thailand equally exposed, fragile macro signals. Selective long Domestic services or banks only if obvious fiscal pivot begins. 🎯 For Daily --- H.E.A.T. Readers Main trade : Short Vietnam equity or FX now; it's a direct play on tariff fallout. Hedge : Small long in Vietnamese financials or domestic consumer shorted on broader weakness. Watch : U.S.–Vietnam talks due mid-June—any hints of reprieve can spark a bouncy recovery. 🔥 The Grid Shock Is Coming: 7 Ways to Profit From the Coming Power Crisis AI power is one of my favorite themes. TD Cowen came out with a new report on the area yesterday so I had GPT take a deep dive and pick out some potential winners and losers….. 10th Annual Sustainability and Energy Transition Primer.pdf 582.39 KB • PDF File Download There’s a war brewing beneath the surface of the American economy. It’s not about interest rates or inflation — it’s about electricity . For decades, the U.S. grid quietly handled business as usual. But those days are over. A wave of AI data centers , EVs , crypto miners , and manufacturing reshoring is colliding with an infrastructure built for a different century. As TD Cowen bluntly states, “we are now entering a period of new demand for electricity” , with annual load growth spiking as high as 7% in certain regions — levels unseen in modern times Utilities are scrambling to catch up. Policymakers are divided. And investors? They’re either asleep — or about to make a fortune. 💡 The Opportunity: Cowen lays out a brutal reality: while clean energy is cheap and ready to deploy, policy uncertainty, tariffs, and high interest rates are clouding the short term. But that’s the setup for asymmetric opportunities. The winners will be those who can: Build scalable energy platforms Help modernize the grid Deliver behind-the-meter flexibility Survive — and thrive — under a Trump 2.0 energy doctrine 🏆 Ranked Winners (1–10 scale, based on positioning, tailwinds, and valuation) Company Ticker Sector Thesis Rating (1– • 10) First Solar FSLR Utility-Scale Solar Top beneficiary of U.S. tariffs, no China exposure. Cheapest unsubsidized LCOE solar tech. 10 Itron ITRI Smart Grid / AMI A direct play on grid digitalization and flexibility. Mission-critical tech. 9 HASI HASI Sustainable Infra REIT Owns cash-flowing clean energy assets. Great long-term but sensitive to rates. 8 California Resources Corp. CRC Carbon Capture / Oil Trump-aligned energy dominance winner with CCUS optionality. 8 Northland Power NPI.T Offshore Wind / Canada Low-cost capital and renewable buildout give it upside in a dovish rate pivot. 7 Landis+Gyr LAND.SW Smart Meters Grid-enabling hardware leader; defensible moat in AMI. 6.5 🧨 Potential Losers (risk from policy, tariffs, or oversupply) Company Ticker Why At Risk Rating (1– • 10) Enphase Energy ENPH Tariff-sensitive, China-exposed battery chain 3 Sunrun RUN Highly levered, dependent on residential incentives 4 Shoals Tech SHLS Solar BOS with global exposure; margin risk if tariffs tighten 5 Array Tech ARRY Utility solar tracker OEM, exposed to cost inflation 5 📈 Key Macro Catalysts TD Cowen Highlights: Massive load growth from data centers, AI, crypto, industrials Renewables cheaper than gas , but face policy friction and integration delays Trump 2.0 policy could: Gut EV credits Favor fossil fuels + domestic manufacturing Weaponize tariffs against China solar & batteries Grid needs full modernization to handle bi-directional loads, DERs, EVs, and cyber risks 💥 Bottom Line: The U.S. isn’t ready for what’s coming. But the capital markets are. The grid is cracking under pressure, but the companies that support or profit from resilient, domestic, scalable energy infrastructure could be the next great compounders . For Steve: this is a full-blown multi-decade asymmetric trade . Focus on utility-scale, tariff-proof, grid-digital enablers and Trump-aligned energy infrastructure . How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. 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