Stablecoins 2.0: 인프라 경쟁

Stablecoins 2.0: The Infrastructure Race THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Stablecoins 2.0: The Infrastructure Race Stablecoins 2.0: The Infrastructure Race Jul 10, 2025 Subscribe now Share As I’ve continued to say, I am paying attention to what Trump tweets about markets. As long as he is bullish, I’m bullish, and I think tariff issues are more Art of the Deal at this point….. — # (# ) Then you have the Fed…. ❝ The Federal Reserve is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, marked by internal divisions, external political pressure, and an increasingly fragile macroeconomic backdrop. The latest FOMC minutes reveal a growing divergence of views on how to respond to tariff-driven inflation risks, with some members already signalling support for rate cuts. While Chair Powell remains focused on preserving the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility, his leadership is being tested both externally — by Trump’s public attacks and calls for a “shadow chair” — and internally, as FOMC members appear to be repositioning ahead of a potential change in leadership. This behavioural shift risks undermining consensus and weakening the Fed’s signalling power. The politicisation of monetary policy echoes historical episodes like Nixon-Burns, raising concerns about the erosion of Fed independence. With Powell’s term ending in 2026 and succession speculation intensifying, the institution faces a structural test: whether it can maintain its technocratic integrity amid rising populist pressure. Markets, meanwhile, are increasingly pricing in rate cuts based on political signalling rather than economic fundamentals — a dynamic that could distort expectations and complicate policy execution. The battle for the Fed’s soul is no longer theoretical; it is unfolding in real time, with implications for inflation, employment, and the credibility of U.S. monetary governance. Jef-X (Daily Macro) I would not bet against Trump getting what he wants. Of course nobody has any idea on whether Bitcoin will lose steam here or not….. Bitcoin hits record high. Why the crypto’s rally may lose steam after briefly topping $112,000. Bitcoin briefly rose above $112,000 to a record high Wednesday afternoon. However, the rally may stall if the trade tensions intensify, according to some analysts. www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-hits-record-high-why-the-cryptos-rally-may-lose-steam-after-briefly-topping-112-000-00941186?mod=home_lead So far all the bears are looking pretty dumb….. BTCL - REX Shares www.rexshares.com/btcl Long time readers know I don’t like regional banks….. Regional Banks’ Torrid Rally Draws Bearish Bets as Earnings Loom www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-10/regional-banks-torrid-rally-draws-bearish-bets-as-earnings-loom?srnd=homepage-americas SKRE - Inverse Regional Banks ETF | Innovative Investment Strategy Explore SKRE, the Inverse Regional Banks ETF offering a unique investment strategy with -200% daily performance of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF. Ideal for navigating volatile markets. www.shortregionalbanks.com Below we take deep dives on stablecoins, P&C companies, and healthcare. Stablecoins are a theme that I think will continue to get bigger, P&C is something I think you should have exposure to for diversification, and the healthcare names are just one of those transitory opportunities that sometimes pop up after a major selloff……. — # (# ) 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes-Stablecoins Stablecoins are one of the most interesting new themes. I recently went into Fiserv (FI) and noticed that B Riley upgraded them yesterday…. Fiserv, Inc. (FI - $170.42, Buy; $249.00 PT); Company Update - Hal Goetsch; [email protected] ; 617-951-6995 • We believe FI is better positioned to monetize stablecoin adoption than most investors realize. • Stablecoin players need to get into payments, but companies like FI are already there. We see stablecoins as just another acceptance method that FI will bring into its already vast global payment and fintech capabilities. • FI's network and regulatory infrastructure is far harder to replicate with 10,000 bank connections, 6M merchants and 1.7B customer accounts. • FI was left behind in the recent rally. Shares are trading at only 17.0x and 14.6x our 2025/2026 estimates, respectively. We see significant upside to our $249 PT from current levels. So I had GPT take another deep dive into the industry for potential winners and losers….. Here's a fully integrated breakdown of stablecoin infrastructure plays —including Fiserv (FI) and peers like Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), PayPal (PYPL), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and others. The focus is on publicly investable names (or likely-to-be), filtered for asymmetric upside, stablecoin yield monetization, and regulatory readiness. 🧱 Stablecoins 2.0: The Infrastructure Race As stablecoins transition from crypto-novelty to fiat-on-chain payment rails , the winners won’t just be token issuers —they’ll be the rails, APIs, and clearing layers that integrate dollars-on-chain into traditional finance. 🧠 The Big 5 Investable Stablecoin Infrastructure Plays Company Role in Ecosystem Core Thesis Rating (1– • 10) Fiserv (FI) Payments Processor / Bank Enabler FIUSD, Paxos/Circle partners, 6M merchants + 10K banks—building tokenized fiat plumbing for U.S. banking. 9.5 Circle (CRCL) Issuer (USDC) IPO candidate. Runs the second-largest stablecoin w/ $30B+ in circulation; will benefit from public listing, but less B2B moat than FI. 9.0 Coinbase (COIN) Wallet + Exchange + Custodian BlackRock/USDC partner, beneficiary of reserve revenue, issuer of Base L2 blockchain. Gateway to stablecoin yield. 8.5 PayPal (PYPL) Consumer Payments + Stablecoin Issuer (PYUSD) Own stablecoin + built-in checkout base. Focused on retail, but limited bank integration. Token gaining traction with Solana and MetaMask. 8.0 Visa / Mastercard (V / MA) Network Layer Running pilots with Circle, Solana, Fireblocks; moving toward stablecoin clearing + cross-border settlement. Already embedded in wallets. 7.5 🔍 Strategic Comparison Table Metric Fiserv Circle Coinbase PayPal Visa / MA Stablecoin Role Acceptance & settlement infrastructure Issuer & protocol-layer Exchange, reserve holder, partner Issuer, consumer interface Pilots, clearing tech Revenue Source Interchange + payment network fees Float yield, issuance volume Float yield, trading fees Float yield + ecosystem monetization Clearing + FX replacement Regulatory Position 10,000 bank ties, AML/KYC gold standard Strong compliance focus, regulator-approved reserves SEC-exposed; known target Limited float disclosure Still in pilot phase, waiting for final rule clarity Moat Merchant + banking network First-mover in compliant stablecoins Custody + wallet scale Brand + user base Network integration Investor Access Public (FI) Private IPO (soon) Public (COIN) Public (PYPL) Public (V / MA) 🔥 Optional Plays (Lower Liquidity or Riskier) Ticker Name Comment Rating SRPL Ripple (XRP) Tokenized cross-border payment layer, exploring stablecoin-like FX tokens 5.5 USDT Tether (private) Largest stablecoin, opaque reserves, no public vehicle 4.5 AVGO / NVDA Infrastructure Indirect but critical to stablecoin compute (signing, settlement) 7.0 HOOD Robinhood Just launched tokenized equities, building stablecoin-native wallet 6.5 🧭 Investment Takeaways Core Portfolio Fiserv (FI) : Best risk/reward profile, especially after lagging recent fintech rally. Coinbase (COIN) : Benefiting from float yield + chain monetization + regulated custody. Circle (CRCL) : Pre-IPO accumulation if available, or via PIPE/post-listing. Supplemental Visa / Mastercard : Long-term plays on clearing evolution; slower monetization path. PayPal : Retail-focused, moderate exposure. Best paired with FI or COIN. Watchlist / Optionality HOOD, Ripple, Avalanche-based plays (via ETFs) for risk-adjusted tokenization trades. 🧠 Bottom Line ❝ “The stablecoin race isn’t just about tokens—it’s about who controls the rails, not the coins. Fiserv may be building the Swift of Stablecoins, while COIN and Circle mint the money and Visa clears the lanes.” 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes-Property & Casualty Insurers I am a big believer in the diversification benefit of adding property & casualty insurers to your portfolio. If you look back over the past five years the Invesco KBW Property and Casualty ETF has a .542 weekly correlation to the SPY ETF and a .046 correlation to the AGG ETF (according to Bloomberg). So this tweet caught my attention, P&C companies are having a rough month, so I wondered whether this was good news, bad news, or no news. I had GPT take a deep dive….. — # (# ) 🧠 What This Means for Property & Casualty Insurers 👍 Good News Underwriting Margin Relief Higher premiums help carriers remedy elevated loss ratios , especially after recent years of severe catastrophe losses . Insurers can better charge “true risk” prices, strengthening future profitability . Improved Rate Adequacy Across most U.S. states, rate filings are aligning closer to actual expected loss trends , reducing risk of underpricing or reserve depletion Selective Market Withdrawal = Less Competition Insurers exiting high-risk markets (e.g., Louisiana, Florida) reduce supply , allowing remaining carriers to increase prices and margins ⚠️ Mixed / Challenging Affordability & Premium Elasticity Dramatic increases (e.g., $14,000/yr in Louisiana) may exceed consumer tolerance, leading to non-renewals , policy cancellations , or demand for state-backed plans . Regulatory & Political Pushback Some states might impose rate caps or stricter justifications (e.g., Florida, California), limiting how aggressively insurers can price . Rising Loss Severity from Climate Even with higher premiums, carriers face persistent or increasing catastrophe losses , suggesting underwriting gains won’t be guaranteed . 🏆 Potential Winners in the P&C Landscape Large, Diversified P&C Carriers Chubb (CB) , Travelers (TRV) , AIG (AIG) : Strong capital buffers and ability to selectively withdraw from unprofitable zones while increasing margins elsewhere. Reinsurance and NatCat Specialists MMC (Marsh & McLennan) , AON (AON) , Brokers like WLTW (Willis Towers Watson) gain from surging treaty prices and renewed risk-layer pricing. Regional Carriers with Niche Focus HCI Group (HCI) in Florida, Amerisafe (AMSE) selectively raising rates in hard-hit states. Others stepping into vacated markets as ”underwriting specialists” . 💡 Notable Risks & Watch-Outs State-backed insurers (e.g., Florida Citizens, California FAIR Plan) may absorb displaced customers, reducing private carrier exposure. Mortgage delinquencies and housing market volatility—exacerbated by rising insurance costs—can lead to policyholder churn . Continued severe weather could overwhelm rate increases, trapping insurers in loss cycles. 🔢 Summary Table Theme / Factor Impact on P&C Insurers Premium Increases (8–27%) ✅ Boost underwriting margins Policyholder Dropouts ⚠️ Possible loss of customers and volume Regulatory Scrutiny ⚠️ Limits to rate hikes Climate Loss Tailwinds ⚠️ Persistent high losses even with better pricing Industry Shakeout ✅ Survivors gain pricing power; brokers gain from reinsurance resets 🎯 Investment Takeaways Overweight : Chubb (CB) : Global footprint, strong capital structure, best-in-class nat cat underwriting. Travelers (TRV) : Balanced portfolio, rate momentum, data-driven underwriting. Select Regional Plays : HCI Group in Florida — agile, regionally focused pricing strategy. Reinsurance Brokers : MMC / AON — benefit from broader rate normalization and client demand. 🧠 Bottom Line Rising home insurance prices are a double-edged sword . They help insurers recalibrate pricing to meet increased risk but simultaneously stress affordability , especially in disaster-prone states. Well-capitalized, diversified carriers with strong underwriting discipline stand to profit significantly , while exposed or overly concentrated players could struggle. UBS also came out with a note on P&C yesterday….. Here's a consolidated, institutional-grade view of the P&C insurance sector , integrating UBS’s 2Q25 call with earlier analysis (Insurify home insurance inflation data, climate trends) and pointing to clear portfolio actions. 🧠 UBS View (July 9, 2025): “Favor Personal Lines, Cautious on Commercial, Brokers Attractive Post-Print” 🔍 Key Points: P&C stocks -4% in Q2 , underperforming both S&P Financials (+5%) and the S&P 500 (+11%) Rotation out of “defensives” like insurance → into banks and rate-sensitive cyclicals Valuation: P&C carriers now trade below 10-year average P/E Insurance brokers trading at a 5% premium to historical averages, but still well below peak relative multiples Tactical call: Buy personal lines (e.g., ALL) into Q2 Wait on commercial lines Own brokers post-earnings for operating leverage 🧭 Integrated View: What’s the Setup for P&C Now? Theme Implication for P&C Insurers Home Insurance +8–27% YoY Bullish for personal lines (e.g., ALL, TRV) — pricing power returns Climate-driven NatCat risk Favors sophisticated underwriters (CB, TRV) and brokers (MMC, AON) Commercial pricing pressure Bearish near term for names like WRB, CNA as loss trends outpace renewals Valuation Reversion Carriers = discounted; brokers = modest premium but room to expand Rate environment stabilizing May limit investment income upside for insurers, benefits brokers via volume 🔥 Stock-Level Ratings (1– • 10) 🟢 Personal Lines Winners (Buy into Q • 2) Ticker Name UBS View Our View Rationale ALL Allstate Favorite 9.0 Best pure-play on personal lines premium acceleration (auto + homeowners); strong Q2 setup TRV Travelers Neutral 8.0 Well-balanced portfolio; benefits from stable pricing and high ROE in both personal and small biz CB Chubb Neutral 8.5 Global footprint + disciplined underwriting = quality compounder. Leverage to personal + specialty 🟡 Commercial Lines (Wait & See) Ticker Name UBS View Our View Rationale WRB W.R. Berkley Cautious 6.5 Strong long-term operator but near-term margin compression risk from reinsurance and competitive pricing CNA CNA Financial Cautious 6.0 Weaker reserve adequacy vs. peers; lacks upside catalysts in H2 🟢 Brokers (Buy Post-Print) Ticker Name UBS View Our View Rationale MMC Marsh McLennan Attractive 8.5 Steady margin expansion, strong advisory & reinsurance growth; capital-light model shines post-Q2 AON Aon Attractive 8.0 More global volatility exposure but favorable rate cycle and cross-sell support EPS growth WLTW Willis Towers Attractive 7.5 Improving earnings visibility, but less margin leverage than peers 💡 Strategy Summary 📈 1. Own Personal Lines Into Q2 Earnings Allstate (ALL) is the cleanest expression of the home insurance repricing trade, with the sharpest YoY increase in premiums already approved in key states (CA, FL, TX). Travelers (TRV) and Chubb (CB) also benefit from better rate capture, particularly in auto + umbrella. 💰 2. Post-Q2, Rotate Into Brokers MMC and AON are positioned to outperform on pricing volume and deferred earnings momentum. They monetize market volatility and insurance rate dispersion , not just claims. 🕓 3. Hold Off on Commercial Lines Near-term margin headwinds from reinsurance, wage inflation, and loss costs (esp. liability + property) may not show recovery until Q4 or 2026 renewals. 📌 Final Takeaway ❝ "UBS is right to say the P&C trade has bifurcated—homeowners are back, commercial is muddling through, and brokers are the long-term alpha generators. This is an allocate-by-subsegment moment, not a sector beta bet." 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes-Healthcare Providers and Payors Healthcare payers and providers are usually not that interesting to me, but what’s going on with UNH and CNC has put this area into play. I run a weekly RSI strategy to buy stocks that have gotten hit, and through that I am now in CNC, ELV, and MOH, so when I saw Cantor came out with a report on the area I had GPT take a deep dive….. 🎯 Core Thesis from Cantor: Providers > Payors into 2Q25 Cantor’s analyst Sarah James highlights a constructive near-term setup for providers over payors , but names ELV , MOH , and CNC as high-conviction rebound trades among the payor group , particularly after recent weakness and guidance resets. 🔍 Deep Dive: Your Current Holdings 🔵 ELV (Elevance Health) Cantor View: Better positioned than UNH, but investor fears remain elevated due to adverse selection and Medicaid pressure. Investor fear: MA (Medicare Advantage) adverse selection risk due to 12% enrollment growth. Cantor disagrees: Believes risk is materially lower than UNH, and ELV has cleaner exposure. Guidance: ELV guided 1H25 EPS to be 60% of FY, which aligns with Cantor's $8.77 estimate (but below Street’s $9.16). Buy-side expectations appear met , Street expectations still too high—setting up potential beat. ❝ ✅ Take: ELV looks like a classic asymmetric sentiment overreaction . The stock’s underperformance vs. peers doesn’t reflect its relatively stronger underwriting and cleaner MA book. Rating: 8.5/10 — Attractive rebound setup, especially if Street revises expectations downward and ELV clears a low bar. 🔵 MOH (Molina Healthcare) Cantor View: Mixed. Revised after 2Q25 and FY guidance update due to cost trend acceleration across all lines : Medicaid, MA, and exchanges. Medicaid: Cited increasing cost pressures mid-quarter. MA: Noted headwinds but not as deep as UNH. Guidance: Likely de-risked now, after reset. ❝ 🟡 Take: MOH has historically been a margin execution machine , but cost creep in 3 channels simultaneously is rare. Could be a bounce trade, but not best-in-class near-term. Rating: 6.5/10 — Ownable on dip, but macro health cost trends make it a less durable long unless visibility improves. 🔵 CNC (Centene) Cantor View: Recently withdrew 2025 guidance —spooked market short term, but updated commentary suggests MA and PDP (Part D) developing better than expected . Marketplace line: Still under pressure. MA: Improving vs. prior tone. Cost pressure : Exists, but not systemic. ❝ 🟢 Take: Guidance withdrawal means CNC likely sandbagged future quarters . The company is seeing improving momentum in PDP and MA—the most sentiment-sensitive segments. Rating: 7.5/10 — Now derisked and likely to surprise positively. A solid tactical long. 💡 Other Stocks Worth Watching (Based on Cantor Report) 🔶 HCA (HCA Healthcare) — Cantor Favorite on Provider Side Set up for a beat and raise . TN DPP benefit + hurricane recovery = revenue tailwind. Pricing and volume assumptions conservative. Rating: 8.5/10 — Attractive in your framework; levered to macro recovery, not just medical trend stability. 🔶 THC (Tenet Healthcare) Positive setup from acuity mix and 2.9% adjusted admissions growth . Benefits from TN DPP and limited Texas flood exposure. Rating: 8.0/10 — Good tactical exposure to provider upside; favorable intra-quarter momentum. 🔷 UNH (UnitedHealth) Returning CEO Steve Hemsley cleaning up Optum. Guidance likely conservative now (~$19–20 EPS vs. Street at $22). MA & supplemental benefits to be scaled back. Rating: 8.0/10 — High quality, but not quite washed out yet ; ideal post-reset trade if Q2 delivers a beat and modest raise. 📈 Final Rankings (1–10 Scale | Investment Potential from Current Levels) Ticker Rating Commentary ELV 8.5 Beatable setup, better fundamentals than sentiment implies HCA 8.5 Best pure provider play — TN DPP kicker and solid volumes THC 8.0 Mid-cap provider bounce setup with favorable survey data UNH 8.0 Undervalued turnaround, but not yet fully reset CNC 7.5 Likely sandbagged; MA and PDP lines improving MOH 6.5 Solid operator but facing too many headwinds at once 🧠 Strategy Summary You’ve bought the right names at the right time , as all three (ELV, MOH, CNC) have seen: Fundamental resets Underperformance vs. peers Setup for sentiment reversal if Q2 prints beat sandbagged estimates Pair these with HCA or THC for exposure to the “provider rebound” trade , which Cantor sees as more attractive than payors heading into 2H25. 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