SpaceX 오늘 상장, 시장이 잘못 짚을 부분 SpaceX는 단순히 오늘 상장하는 것이 아닙니다. 시장의 새로운 척도가 되는 것입니다.

THE DAILY H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts SpaceX Goes Public Today, Here's What The Market Is About To Get Wrong SpaceX Goes Public Today, Here's What The Market Is About To Get Wrong SpaceX is not just going public today. It is becoming the yardstick. Jun 12, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $5 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. Table of Contents H.E.A.T. The AI Buildout Has a Physical Layer News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today ETF News In Case You Missed It H.E.A.T. The Benchmark Event: SpaceX Goes Public at $1.75 Trillion and Every Space Proxy Gets Repriced At roughly a $1.75 trillion IPO valuation — the largest in history — it doesn't merely create a new stock. It creates the public benchmark against which every launch provider, satellite operator, lunar infrastructure company, geospatial data vendor, and spectrum story now gets measured. That is where both the opportunity and the trap live. ~$1.75T SpaceX IPO Valuation $75B IPO Raise 10.3M Starlink Users ~60% Starlink % of Revenue $250B+ Investor Demand  New York, June 12, 2026. The number that matters isn't the share price. It's the valuation multiple that price implies — and what it means for every space name that spent the last four years riding SpaceX's coattails without SpaceX being a public comp. At $135 per share and roughly $1.75 trillion in implied valuation, SpaceX pulled in more than $250 billion in investor demand before a single share traded. Retail alone put in $70 billion. The real asset is finally priced. Everything adjacent to it now has to answer an uncomfortable question: were you a real business, or were you a substitute for something investors couldn't buy? The market's first instinct will be to trade the space sector as a monolith. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Planet Labs, BlackSky, Globalstar, and Iridium will get dragged into the same headline rotation. That is the mistake. Some of these names benefit from SpaceX's scale. Some are carrier hedges that get more valuable as Starlink gets more aggressive. One is now a merger-arb, not a space equity. One is an expensive proxy that only looked scarce while the real thing was private. The IPO does not end the space trade. It forces investors to finally separate the businesses from the labels.  THE NON-CONSENSUS THESIS  The most dangerous assumption on SpaceX IPO day: Starlink's success is a zero-sum outcome for every D2D competitor.   For AST SpaceMobile, the logic inverts. The more aggressively SpaceX competes directly with AT&T and Verizon, the more motivated those carriers become to fund ASTS as their hedge. ASTS routes through existing MNO billing and branding — it isn't carrier-competitive, it is carrier-native. Nearly 60 MNO partnerships and $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments are the vote count.   Starlink's aggression may be ASTS's single best accelerant. That is the non-consensus trade today.  THE CONCEPTUAL RESET  SpaceX is not the comp. It is the benchmark.   Rocket Lab is not SpaceX. ASTS is not Starlink. Planet is not SpaceX. The mistake investors will make is treating every space stock as a smaller version of the IPO.   The right question is narrower: does SpaceX make this company's cost of capital cheaper, its customer demand stronger, or its business model look worse?   SpaceX forces discrimination. The names whose demand improves when SpaceX scales are the winners. The names that only looked scarce because SpaceX was private are the traps.  WHAT YOU ARE ACTUALLY BENCHMARKING AGAINST One more correction before we run the names. SpaceX is not a clean launch comp. It is a composite entity, and the IPO S-1 makes that explicit. The launch business — Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship development — is the infrastructure layer. Starlink is the recurring revenue engine, now contributing roughly 60% of the company's $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue across 10.3 million subscribers. And earlier this year, SpaceX merged with xAI, adding an AI optionality layer that no analyst model for any public space name has yet priced. That composite structure matters. When you benchmark RKLB against SpaceX, you are benchmarking a pure launch business against a launch-plus-satellite-broadband-plus-AI holding company. The valuation gap is not fully explained by execution. Some of it is portfolio structure. Keep that in mind before assuming the multiple compression is all available to public-market comps.  BENCHMARK RESPONSE BY NAME   TICKER RATING/PT COMPANY BENCHMARK RESPONSE VERDICT RKLB Buy / $129 Rocket Lab Best public launch comp; Falcon 9 booked through 2027. Upside is now Neutron execution, not multiple discovery. EXECUTION STORY ASTS Buy / $115 AST SpaceMobile MNO-native D2D. Starlink aggression raises carrier desperation; $1.2B committed. 2027 ramp is the real trade. CARRIER HEDGE LUNR Buy / $44 Intuitive Machines SpaceX owns the Artemis highway; LUNR builds cislunar infrastructure around it. Additive, not competitive. ECOSYSTEM WIN PL Buy / $53 Planet Labs Minimal direct revenue overlap with Starlink. FCF positive F2026. Rule-of-40 path. Pure data moat. DECOUPLED WIN BKSY Hold / $29 BlackSky Defense analytics immune to Starlink. Gen-3 behind schedule. AROS inflection is a 2028 story. WATCH / EXECUTE GSAT Hold / $90 Globalstar Amazon pending $90/share acquisition changes this to a deal spread. Not a space equity, a merger-arb. DEAL SPREAD IRDM Hold / $39 Iridium ~$50 vs. $39 PT. Up on spectrum narrative; flat OEBITDA. Rotation from proxy into real SpaceX shares is the risk. VALUATION TRAP  Fyi, These are ratings and price targets from Clear Street, just put in for reference.  THE STORIES BEHIND THE NUMBERS Rocket Lab: The Execution Story (Buy, $129 PT, ~$115 today) RKLB is still the cleanest public launch comp to SpaceX — but the multiple-discovery phase of that trade has largely played out. Investors seeking vertically integrated space exposure now have a listed benchmark. What's left for RKLB is execution. The near-term case is real: Falcon 9 is booked through 2027, Blue Origin is sidelined for potentially 12+ months, and RKLB's New Zealand launch pad sidesteps the chronically oversubscribed federal ranges at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg. Overflow demand from a SpaceX-constrained market is a genuine short-term tailwind. The long-term case is Neutron. If it flies in late 2026 as targeted, RKLB enters a medium-lift demand vacuum SpaceX cannot fill. Without it, this is a well-run small-lift business priced as a transformational platform. The $129 PT is built on 26x 2030E EV/Sales — a valuation that requires Neutron to work.   AST SpaceMobile: The Carrier Hedge (Buy, $115 PT) The market will likely treat ASTS as a sell today — a D2D competitor getting outgunned by Starlink's hundreds of satellites versus ASTS's 7 BlueBirds in orbit. That reading misunderstands the business model. Starlink sells direct to consumers, bypassing carriers. ASTS routes through MNO infrastructure, billing, and branding. The two companies are not competing for the same customer. They are competing for the carrier's loyalty — and every dollar Starlink takes from AT&T and Verizon sharpens that carrier's motivation to fund the alternative. The $1.2 billion in contracted commitments is the market's response, not a risk indicator. The real story begins in 2027 when the constellation reaches commercial scale. At ~$97 today versus a $115 PT, the market is pricing significant execution risk. The non-consensus argument: Starlink's IPO-day success may be the single clearest accelerant for that ramp.   Intuitive Machines: The Ecosystem Winner (Buy, $44 PT) LUNR is not a SpaceX competitor. It is a SpaceX beneficiary. SpaceX won NASA's Human Landing System contract — the vehicle that puts humans back on the Moon. LUNR builds the communications, navigation, and surface infrastructure those humans will depend on once they get there. More Artemis activity means more SpaceX launches and more LUNR infrastructure demand. The IM-3 mission this year carries the first of five lunar-orbiting satellites and introduces a pay-per-minute recurring revenue model. Neither that mission nor the contract pipeline depends on Starlink's subscriber count. IPO-day sector volatility that drags LUNR down is a buying opportunity, not a fundamental signal.   Planet Labs: The Decoupled Data Play (Buy, $53 PT) PL is a data company operating in a different layer of the space economy entirely. PlanetScope sells geospatial intelligence derived from satellite imagery. Starlink sells broadband. The customer sets have minimal direct overlap. SpaceX has no proprietary data archive and no LLM integration roadmap today. What makes PL genuinely distinct from the sector: FCF positivity achieved in F2026 — rare among space names, most of which are still cash-burning infrastructure plays. The Owl satellite upgrade to 1-meter resolution is the near-term product catalyst. LLM integration is the re-rating event. A 36% projected revenue CAGR and a path to the Rule of 40 in F2027E separate this from the SpaceX sentiment trade entirely.   Iridium: The Valuation Trap (Hold, $39 PT, ~$50 today) This is the cleanest 'do not chase the proxy' warning in the sector. IRDM is trading at roughly $50 against a $39 Clear Street PT — 28% above the analyst's fair value estimate — and it got there on narrative, not fundamentals. The mechanism: IRDM owns L-band spectrum. The Amazon/Globalstar deal at $90/share validated satellite spectrum as a scarce M&A asset. Investors extrapolated that valuation to IRDM and re-rated the stock 181% year-to-date. The problem: the Amazon/Globalstar transaction bundled terrestrial spectrum that IRDM simply doesn't own. The comp is imperfect. IRDM's 2026 service revenue guidance is flat to +2%. OEBITDA is flat at roughly $482 million through 2027. There is no step-change catalyst. Today's risk: investors who bought IRDM as a SpaceX proxy now have the real thing available. The rotation could be sharp, and the exit ramp is narrow.  PRESSURE POINTS: KEY RISKS BY NAME   TICKER KEY RISK WHY IT MATTERS RKLB Neutron delay or cost overrun Without Neutron, RKLB is a well-run small-lift business priced as a SpaceX challenger. Miss the late-2026 target and the multiple compresses fast. ASTS BlueBird ramp misses 45-satellite year-end target Commercial revenue near zero through 2027. Carriers lose patience. $115 PT requires ~$2B 2029E adj. EBITDA at full constellation scale. LUNR NASA award slippage or Artemis budget cuts Entire thesis anchored to government cadence. Political risk on lunar funding is the single live variable that matters most. IRDM M&A/spectrum narrative fades as real SpaceX exposure arrives Flat OEBITDA ~$482–483M. Stock near $50 vs. $39 PT. 181% YTD built on multiple expansion, not cash flows. Rotation risk is structural. BKSY Gen-3 deployment continues to slip Behind schedule now. AROS wide-area mapping inflection ($12M modeled 2028 revenue) requires both Gen-3 AND Maxar constellation retirement aligning. CREDIBILITY FIREWALL   COMPANY-DISCLOSED / SOURCED MODEL-DERIVED EDITORIAL VIEW SpaceX IPO: ~$1.75T–$1.78T valuation; $75B raise; $135/share price. Source: Reuters, Financial Times (June 2026). 10.3M Starlink users/subscribers. Starlink ~60% of SpaceX's $18.67B 2025 revenue. $250B+ investor demand, $70B+ retail orders. Sources: Reuters. xAI merger with SpaceX reported earlier this year per Reuters. Adds AI optionality layer not present in earlier analyst models. RKLB $129 PT — Clear Street Research. 26x 2030E EV/Sales on $3.1B projected revenue. Current price ~$115. Falcon 9 booked through 2027 (SpaceX disclosed). Neutron targeted late 2026 per RKLB management. 2030E anchor is editorial judgment. Neutron commercial economics modeled, not confirmed. Multiple discovery largely priced in. ASTS $115 PT — Clear Street Research. 20x 2029E adj. EBITDA ~$2.0B. ~60 MNO partnerships; $1.2B contracted revenue commitments. Both company-disclosed. ~7 BlueBirds in orbit today; 45 targeted by year-end (management guidance). Cash trough ~$1.6B in 1Q28E before FCF positive turn. 2029E EBITDA requires full constellation ramp. MNO commitments are contracted, not yet revenue-converted. LUNR $44 PT — Clear Street Research. 9x 2027E revenue of $1.14B post-$800M Lanteris acquisition. NASA Near Space Network contract held. SpaceX Human Landing System award (NASA-disclosed). IM-3 mission planned with first lunar-orbiting satellite. 2027E is first full clean year at prime contractor scale. CS-8, C-Band award timing assumed in base case. PL $53 PT — Clear Street Research. ~25x F2029E EV/Sales on $776M revenue; 36% projected revenue CAGR. FCF positivity achieved F2026 (company-reported). Owl satellite (~1m resolution) in development. F2029E is first full-contribution year for Owl and commercial AI verticals. F2029E anchor requires full Owl deployment and AI vertical scaling beyond early adoption. GSAT $90 PT — reflects Amazon pending $90/share acquisition offer. Apple $1.1B satellite funding + $400M/20% SPE stake (company-disclosed). Amazon/Globalstar transaction; HIBLEO-4 17-satellite replenishment program milestones tied to offer. This is a merger-arb analysis, not a standalone space equity. Closing conditions and regulatory approval are the live variables. IRDM $39 PT — Clear Street Research. ~11x 2027E OEBITDA of ~$482M. Current market price ~$50. 181% YTD (market-observable). Service revenue guidance 2026: flat to +2% (company-disclosed). L-band spectrum asset. OEBITDA essentially flat 2026–2027E. Spectrum optionality is priced in at current levels per our analysis. Amazon/GSAT multiple comparison is editorial — GSAT held terrestrial spectrum IRDM does not.    BEAR CASE SPOTLIGHT: THE PROXY TRAP   The most dangerous trade on SpaceX IPO day is buying the proxies instead of the real thing.   IRIDIUM (~$50 vs. $39 PT): Up 181% on spectrum M&A narrative. Flat OEBITDA through 2027. The Amazon/Globalstar multiple is an imperfect comp — that transaction included terrestrial spectrum IRDM doesn't own. If investors rotate from the proxy into actual SpaceX shares, the exit is narrow and the downside is structural.   BLACKSKY ($29 PT): Gen-3 is behind schedule. AROS revenue doesn't inflect until 2028. A sentiment-driven IPO lift would be a technical dislocation, not a fundamental signal. Hold the position on execution cadence, not sector enthusiasm.   The principle: when the real thing goes public, the proxies get stress-tested. The ones with fundamentals survive. The ones that were just filling a gap in the index get repriced.  FIVE TAKEAWAYS  1.       SpaceX at $1.75T is a benchmark event, not a sector tailwind. The right question is not 'which space stock goes up today' but 'which names are real businesses whose demand improves when SpaceX scales.' Most of them. But not all. 2.      Rocket Lab is still the cleanest launch comp, but the multiple-discovery trade has largely played out. What's left is Neutron execution. Watch the late-2026 launch cadence milestones with the same intensity as an earnings catalyst. 3.      AST SpaceMobile is the best non-consensus idea in the sector. Starlink's aggression increases carrier motivation to fund ASTS as their hedge. The $1.2B in committed MNO contracts is the market's answer, already in writing. The 2027 ramp is the real trade. 4.      Iridium is the clearest 'do not chase' position in the sector. Trading at $50 against a $39 PT on a narrative that required SpaceX to stay private. The rotation risk is real, the downside is structural, and the exit window is closing. 5.      Planet Labs and Intuitive Machines are genuinely decoupled from SpaceX's trading performance. Sector selloffs triggered by IPO volatility are potential entry points for both — not fundamental deteriorations. Know what you own before the tape moves.  The $1.75 trillion IPO does not end the space trade. It begins the chapter where every narrative asset gets tested against a public benchmark for the first time. The investors who read that benchmark correctly — who understand that some competitors are actually partners, that some proxies are traps, and that one name is now a merger-arb — will capture the returns the rest of the market is about to leave on the table. The AI Buildout Has a Physical Layer Many of today’s data centers are still using copper wiring. The same metal we’ve been using for a hundred years. At the speeds AI demands with data moving between thousands of GPUs, billions of times a second, copper doesn’t just slow down. It turns that data into heat. The more you push through it, the worse it gets. There’s no software for fix for that. So what’s the answer? Explore the Photonics Layer….. Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO) Distributor: Foreside Fund Services | Investing involves risk including possible loss of principle. News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today The market rallied hard on another end to the war, but today Iran is saying there is no deal. Market’s are still rallying this morning. Today is the SpaceX IPO. I’ve been in markets since 1981 and have never seen anything like this. I have no idea what will happen, neither does anyone else. Be careful if you are going to play today, I probably will not. We will add it to a couple of funds, maybe next week, and of course we are one of the guys doing this on Monday… Where Does the Money Go When AI Hits a Wall? When capital chases a tech theme, it tends to pile into the most obvious layer and miss the one underneath. AI spending is now bumping hard against memory. Hyperscalers — the big cloud builders like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft — have shifted memory from 8% of their build budgets to an estimated 30% in a single cycle. That capital has to go somewhere. If the constraint is memory, and the build can't move without it, shouldn't an investor own the layer AI runs on? View HBMX fund holdings → Distributor: Foreside Fund Services | Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal. <Link = http://www.hbmxetf.com/> ETF News $UFOD ( ▲ 0.19% ) $HALX ( ▲ 0.78% ) Inside HALX: Top Holdings, Weightings, and What Makes the ETF Unique Launched in May 2026, the Tuttle Capital Heavy Assets Low Obsolescence ETF (HALX) is one of the newest entrants in the thematic ETF landscape ETF Trends • Zandile Chiwanza A Stock I’m Watching $RKLB ( ▼ 10.8% ) Rocket Lab and these four stocks are joining the Nasdaq 100, with SpaceX waiting in the wings The Nasdaq 100 could imminently include SpaceX, but first it’s getting a shakeup that will usher in another space-technology company and four flashy AI plays. MarketWatch • Claudia Assis In Case You Missed It We invited Dan Ferris to the Financial Heat Podcast….. The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2026 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved. Keep Reading Jun 4, 2026 • 1 min read The memory trade most investors trade wrong This is a long-term hold Jun 9, 2026 • 14 min read The Second Phase of the Optics Trade The market knows the ticker. It doesn't know the supply chain. That gap is where the next round of returns gets made. Jun 8, 2026 • 1 min read Bonds failed. Stocks are a rollercoaster. Now what? The old playbook is dead. View more 4