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Shut Up, Dan THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Shut Up, Dan Shut Up, Dan Jul 9, 2025 Subscribe now Share Tariffs and interest rates are the market’s main focus at the moment. Rates have quietly ticked up 5 days in a row, and the 10 year is nearing 4.5%……. Keep an eye on this, if the bond vigilantes start to get pissy then everything I’ve been saying about the market moving up could go out the window. ❝ Investor nerves were rattled after a weak $58B 3-year Treasury auction revealed soft demand and low foreign participation, raising red flags ahead of this week’s $39B 10-year and $22B 30-year auctions. The 10-year yield has surged from 4.20% to 4.43% in just five days, approaching the psychologically critical 4.50% threshold — a level that could trigger broader repricing across risk assets. With CPI data and earnings season kicking off next week, the bond market faces a pivotal test. Long-duration bonds are increasingly vulnerable to inflation surprises, Fed recalibration, and capital flow shifts, making the upcoming auctions a litmus test for investor confidence in fiscal discipline and inflation control. Jef-X (Daily Macro) Of course long term Treasuries continue to show why they are a trading vehicle, not an investment….. Wouldn’t be buying junk bonds either….. How junk bonds are signaling the same optimism about the U.S. economy as stocks The U.S. junk bond market is sending an optimistic message about the economy, despite market volatility around tariffs. www.marketwatch.com/story/how-junk-bonds-are-signaling-the-same-optimism-about-the-u-s-economy-as-stocks-46c56cc5?mod=home_lead The time to buy junk bonds is when spreads are historically wide… ❝ Investors are paid a premium over comparable Treasurys for taking such risks in corporate bonds. While those spreads are now historically tight, raising valuation concerns, they also suggest junk-bond investors aren’t expecting a recession, despite President Donald Trump’s tariffs. ❝ President Trump has locked on August 1 as the hard deadline for a sweeping tariff regime, with reciprocal levies of 25–70% targeting over 100 countries. The surprise 50% copper tariff — imposed under Section 232 — triggered a record spike in US futures and a 25% premium over LME prices. Pharma and semiconductor imports are next in line, with threats of up to 200% tariffs and a 12–18-month window for supply chain relocation. Trump’s use of unilateral letters as “deals” has injected legal and diplomatic uncertainty, while the compressed timeline raises the risk of retaliation from major economies. The strategy is clear: extract last-minute concessions through pressure, but the execution risks disrupting global supply chains, fueling inflation, business decision making paralysis and fracturing trade norms. TACO COMPLACENCY : Markets appear increasingly desensitized to Trump’s tariff threats, with the “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) mindset dominating. This complacency is reflected in the S&P 500’s ~6% YTD gain. However,  if Trump’s August 1 deadline turns out to be firmer than past episodes, and if tariffs begin to materially impact margins or consumer prices, sentiment could reverse sharply. Jef-X (Daily Macro) Meanwhile, stick to the fundamentals….. Nvidia Stock Is on a Tear. How It Can Soon Pass These 2 Market Milestones. www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-stock-ai-chip-apple-4-trillion-d3e7c837?mod=hp_LEDE_C_4 AI is still the dominant theme, and NVDA is the obvious winner…. — # (# ) Then there’s quantum….. — # (# ) 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes Covering three stocks of interest today, UBER, AMZN, and CRWV. Talked to Schwab yesterday about UBER…….. UBER — # (# ) I’m not in it because it’s a bit extended, but will probably try to buy a dip, if I get one. Bank of America also happened to upgrade it yesterday as well…… Uber Technologies | BUY | UBER US | Mkt Cap: USD202,174mn | Justin Post No Tax on Tips, and other positive tidbits, Raising PO to $115 • The Big Beautiful Bill could result in a 2.5% effective pay bump for Uber drivers based on tax savings. • Separately, Uber-backed fleet manager Moove may be raising financing to own and operate Waymos. • BSM data for 2Q constructive, as well as data on Delivery growth. Reit. Buy on Uber, raise PO to $115 based on 24x 2026E FCF. AMZN Amazon Prime Week started yesterday. Usually not a big catalyst but David Boole at Baycrest pointed out a big options trade: 27,000 AMZN Aug 240 calls were bought at about 10am for $4.31 → $11.6M in premium Strike = all-time highs → trade captures Prime + Aug 1 earnings (implied move = 5.5%) $650M notional exposure, with 240 strike about +8.5% from spot ( • 224) Options trades in and of themselves don’t tell you anything, but a big conviction trade along with other analysis can be helpful. I do have AMZN as a core holding. CRWV Been in CRWV for a bit, taking profits along they way, and my options are still up over 2,000%. Stifel downgraded them to Hold yesterday…… 🔻 Key Concerns: Dilution Risk ~$9B all-stock acquisition of CORZ (~10% dilution via 0.1235 exchange rate) Market cap expansion without matching earnings visibility short term. Business Model Shift CRWV goes from asset-light GPU leasing → asset-heavy vertically integrated operator This shifts perception from “capital efficient” to “opex-heavy” and potentially lowers valuation multiples Minimal Incremental Growth from CORZ CRWV already derives ~37% of its contracted power from CORZ Post-acquisition, CORZ may only expand contracted exposure to ~50% of CRWV’s footprint Implied takeaway : This is more about de-risking capacity than creating new revenue engines Overhang Timeline Deal closes late Q3/Q4; lock-up expiration in September adds potential selling pressure Structure requires ~$10B+ in “take-or-pay” commitments over 12 years— significant off-balance-sheet burden Valuation Compression Fixed asset ownership (1.3GW of data center power) may shift perception toward traditional data center valuations Currently priced for “high-multiple growth tech”; risk of re-rating to lower-multiple infrastructure/REIT-type profile I ran this by GPT and it pretty much told me what I thought….. 🔥 Final Takeaway : ❝ “CRWV is playing the long game. They just bought the power grid for AI compute, but they’ll trade like a data center stock until Wall Street figures it out. If you can stomach the next few quarters of chop, this might be the most asymmetric AI power trade on the board.” I ended up getting out and will look to reenter at some point. I also took profits in FCX, thing has almost doubled in a short period of time and it’s a copper stock… — # (# ) This could end up becoming a big deal though…. Five Things to Know About Record Copper Prices The metal is used in manufacturing everything from automobiles to mobile phones www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/five-things-to-know-about-record-copper-prices-a6644db7?mod=finance_lead_story ❝ Copper has long been seen as a key weather vane for economic growth, with higher prices often signaling industrial expansion. But analysts now fear that tariff-induced price hikes on metals and other imported goods could prop up U.S. inflation, which has remained stubbornly elevated above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Higher costs could hit the profit margins of U.S. companies that need copper to build infrastructure or manufacture other products. At the same time, jumping commodity prices are a boon to domestic mining firms such as Freeport-McMoRan. Shares in the firm have catapulted 22% higher this year. 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Hedges-Gold Speaking of metals, gold has been weaker….. After such a parabolic move up, you would expect it go sideways for a bit. I’ve been adding to my exposure by selling puts on GLD. That way, if gold moves sideways for a while I still make money on the time decay. I do have some silver and platinum investments, but not nearly the same size as Gold. I agree with this article, gold can be a hedge for many reasons, the other metals not so much….. Investors Are Searching for the Next Gold. Don’t Get Burned. www.barrons.com/articles/silver-platinum-gold-funds-buy-984364da?mod=hp_WIND_A_2_2 Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf Still out of TSLA, this is crazy…. Keep an eye on this, if TSLA is just a car company then it probably has an issue…. — # (# ) 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Asymmetry-SPACs — # (# ) — # (# ) How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0