소프트웨어는 임대하고, 사이버는 소유하고, 메모리는 스토킹하라

THE DAILY H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Rent Software. Own Cyber. Stalk Memory. Rent Software. Own Cyber. Stalk Memory. Mar 5, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. Table of Contents H.E.A.T. The Tech Split: software, cyber, and memory are th … Winners and losers (specific stocks) 1) Software: yes, you can get a bounce… but “quali … 2) Cyber: sold off in sympathy… but AI makes secur … 3) Memory: wait for the dip entry, then buy like a … The simple positioning takeaway News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today This is a market-structure tape into March OpEx, n … Retail is still the “dip-bid,” and tax refund liqu … Hedge demand is crowded; any de-escalation = fast … Security stays the cleanest “AI-era must-have” bud … “Physical AI” in defense is becoming urgent (count … A Stock I’m Watching In Case You Missed It Talking with Josh Brown about European Digital Sov … H.E.A.T. The Tech Split: software, cyber, and memory are three different movies Here’s the tell: over the past week, software suddenly outran semis by a record margin (think IGV ripping while SMH got punched). That looks like a “software comeback” headline… but it’s really the market doing what it always does after a crowded, emotional move: it snaps back toward the thing everyone hates most, at least temporarily. Software has been the poster child for the “AI ghost trade” (the fear that AI reduces seat counts, compresses pricing, and makes whole categories of workflow software feel optional). When you’re that oversold, you don’t need good news—you just need the bad news to be slightly less bad. Meanwhile, semis and memory were extended, “owned,” and vulnerable to any macro wobble or AI-capex second-guessing… so they became the source of funds. The mistake is treating “tech” like a single trade. It isn’t. Software can bounce, but you have to pick the right exposures because the market is now punishing “one-quarter-too-optimistic” guidance like it’s a felony. Cyber got clipped in sympathy with the broader software tape, but the logic is backward: AI doesn’t eliminate security spend… it multiplies the attack surface (agents, privileged access, prompt injection, automated exploits, AI-powered phishing at scale). And memory is the classic “right theme, wrong entry.” The structural story (AI-driven tightness, HBM allocation, multi-year visibility) can be intact while the stock still needs to flush positioning—so you want a dip entry with a map, not a hero buy because you liked the story on the way up. Winners and losers (specific stocks) 1) Software: yes, you can get a bounce… but “quality + durability” matters What I’d look for in the right software bounce names Embedded in the enterprise (hard to rip out; mission-critical workflows) Monetizes outcomes/usage, not just “seats” (less exposed to headcount shrink) Clear AI upside (AI adds modules, raises attach rates, increases usage… not just “AI will replace us”) Potential winners (software rebound watchlist) NOW (ServiceNow) — workflow “system of record” for IT/ops; AI can increase automation spend rather than remove it CRM (Salesforce) — massive installed base; AI features can drive upsell/attach (even if growth is choppy) DDOG (Datadog) — usage/telemetry-driven; more AI workloads = more complexity = more observability SNOW (Snowflake) — data gravity matters more in an AI world; adoption can be lumpy, but data platforms tend to consolidate HUBS (HubSpot) — if you want a cleaner SMB/“AI productivity” expression, but it’s more cyclical Potential losers / “handle with gloves” Seat-heavy models where headcount shrink hits revenue optics fast, or where AI substitutes the workflow rather than complements it: WDAY (Workday) — incredible franchise, but it is exposed to “per employee” math in the narrative (even if the reality is slower) ZM (Zoom) — collaboration is sticky, but AI agents can commoditize “meeting” value faster than people expect MDB (MongoDB) — the market just reminded everyone that even loved names can get smoked on guidance; great tech, but sentiment is fragile Smaller, single-product SaaS with high valuation + slowing net retention = earnings landmines How I’d frame the software trade in one line: Rent the bounce in the highest-quality platforms; don’t marry the “all clear” narrative. 2) Cyber: sold off in sympathy… but AI makes security more mandatory Cyber got dragged because it’s lumped into “software,” and because a lazy story took hold: “AI scans code → fewer bugs → less security spend.” That’s like saying seatbelts will end car insurance. AI doesn’t just make things safer—it makes attackers faster, cheaper, and more scalable. And the real risk is shifting from “vulnerable code” to vulnerable agents (privileged workflows + prompt injection + data access). If enterprises deploy agents at scale, they are effectively deploying thousands of “mini employees” that need identity, access control, monitoring, and response. Potential winners (cyber resilience basket) CRWD (CrowdStrike) — platform + endpoint + identity/next-gen modules; AI adds complexity that favors platforms PANW (Palo Alto Networks) — broad platform posture across network/cloud/security ops; consolidation winner if budgets rationalize FTNT (Fortinet) — “real world” edge + networking/security convergence; more traffic, more enforcement ZS (Zscaler) — zero-trust / secure access; volatile around prints, but strategically aligned with “agents everywhere” OKTA (Okta) — identity is the choke point when everything becomes an API/agent NET (Cloudflare) — security + edge + performance; benefits from the “AI traffic explosion” dynamic Potential losers Narrow point solutions that can be bundled away by platforms Security names where the product is too close to “basic scanning” that can be commoditized (You can still trade them, but structurally platforms tend to win the consolidation cycle.) How I’d frame cyber in one line: Cyber isn’t an AI victim—it’s the insurance premium for the AI era. 3) Memory: wait for the dip entry, then buy like a sniper Tuesday’s memory selloff looked violent (MU, SNDK, STX, WDC getting hit), but the key question is why. If the move is positioning + “overbought unwind” (especially after huge runs in Korea), that’s very different than “demand broke.” The more interesting medium-term setup is that HBM soaks up incremental capacity, and constraints aren’t just demand—they’re supply-side: clean-room buildouts, long lead times for tools, and the reality that you can’t conjure qualified capacity overnight. Potential winners (memory + storage + picks-and-shovels) MU (Micron) — best U.S. pure play on the HBM/AI memory cycle SNDK (Sandisk) — NAND leverage; high beta to sentiment, but real cycle torque STX (Seagate) and WDC (Western Digital) — storage keeps getting pulled forward by AI datasets and AI-generated content AMAT (Applied Materials) and LRCX (Lam Research) — “when capacity eventually gets built,” these are the toll collectors Potential losers Consumer device ecosystems that get squeezed by rising component costs (memory/content storage creeping into BOM pressure) Anything highly levered to “cheap electronics deflation forever” narratives A practical entry framework (what you said—codified) Don’t chase green candles after a flush Look for undercut-and-rally setups near: prior swing lows the 50-day and 200-day moving averages major breakout levels from earlier in the cycle Scale in (don’t all-in) and define the invalidation level before you buy How I’d frame memory in one line: The story can be right and the stock can still need a reset—buy the dip, but only at your level. The simple positioning takeaway If I had to reduce this whole page to a clean mental model: Software: trade it tactically (own the best platforms, avoid the seat-risk landmines) Cyber: treat weakness as mispricing (AI increases the need) Memory: stalk the entry (technicals matter when a trade gets crowded) News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Nice turnaround from an ugly day Tuesday. Under normal circumstances a day like yesterday would get me all bulled up, but in a war any news can come out that changes things. Looking at a chart of the QQQs all I see is chop, but as we have been saying, the real action is beneath the surface….. If I zoom out to weekly, it looks like a market that’s either consolidating or setting up for a drop. Time will tell….. Here are a few themes I’m seeing….. AVGO earnings could be consequential Broadcom announced a blowout quarter, but the most interesting part of the report was the CEO endorsing copper over photonics. That’s causing a rally in CRDO and ALAB and a selloff in photonics. Photonics names (LITE, COHR) are extended anyway, would potentially look for a dip buy at some point here. This is a market-structure tape into March OpEx, not a fundamentals tape The market has been “pinned” by heavy options positioning and overwriting, with the biggest roll-off of options notional on record into March 20. Translation: expect chop/mean reversion until OpEx clears, then more directional freedom if positioning resets the way it usually does. Actionable lens: don’t over-interpret every headline move before OpEx; the “why” may be flows. Retail is still the “dip-bid,” and tax refund liquidity is the next incremental fuel Citadel is still seeing persistent retail buying (especially on down days) and highlights the seasonal setup: refund issuance ramps into March/April, and cash-like balances are still huge. That’s not “immediate equity inflows,” but it’s a liquidity backdrop that can support a bounce once the mechanics unclench. Equity expression: “value-with-growth” consumer winners (off-price) + quality tech rebounds. Hedge demand is crowded; any de-escalation = fast unwind = upside delta Skew is elevated; cross-asset hedging demand is elevated. When protection is crowded, the market can rip simply because people monetize puts and dealers/vol strategies flip from “selling rallies” to “chasing.” Equity expression: own what institutions want to re-add when vol compresses: quality, liquid, durable. Security stays the cleanest “AI-era must-have” budget Even with software sentiment messy, the security platform names keep getting framed as structurally advantaged because AI expands the attack surface and raises the cost of failure. Equity expression: cybersecurity platforms with a flywheel. “Physical AI” in defense is becoming urgent (counter-drone) Oppenheimer’s desk note is explicitly connecting current conflict dynamics to low-cost counter-UAS procurement needs—i.e., scalable solutions versus exquisite legacy systems. ETF Moves We added Ouster (OUST) to UFOD (1% of fund) because the next leg of “physical AI” is shifting from models to mission-grade perception. Autonomy doesn’t scale in the real world without a reliable “truth sensor” stack—especially in drones and defense workflows where spoofing, clutter, weather, and contested environments break cheaper sensing. Ouster is one of the few scaled, pure-play lidar platforms, and the key catalyst is procurement velocity: its OS1 digital lidar has been approved and added to the Pentagon’s Blue UAS Framework, which matters because it’s a vetted path for NDAA-compliant components to get designed into U.S.-aligned unmanned systems. The asymmetry is that we don’t need to “pick the winning drone OEM”—we’re buying the picks-and-shovels sensor layer that multiple primes/integrators can standardize on as defense budgets migrate toward autonomy. The tradeoff is small-cap volatility and a competitive sensor landscape, so we size it like an adoption call option, not a sleepy compounder. Learn More: https://www.thetruthisoutthereufod.com/ Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure ETF (UFOD) before investing. For a prospectus with this and other information about the fund, please call (347) 852-0548 or visit http://thetruthisoutthereufod.com/. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. Distributor: Foreside Fund Services, LLC Principal Risks As with all funds, a shareholder is subject to the risk that his or her investment could lose money. The Fund is not a complete investment program and is designed for inclusion in a diversified investment portfolio. The principal risks affecting shareholders’ investments in the Fund are set forth below. An investment in the Fund is not a bank deposit and is not insured or guaranteed by the FDIC or any government agency. The principal risks described herein pertain to direct risks of making an investment in the Fund and/or risks of the issuers in which the Fund invests. Speculative Nature Risk. Government confirmation or denial of advanced alien technology is uncertain, and rumored breakthroughs might never materialize. This entire theme is highly speculative and subject to rumor cycles. Equity Securities Risk. Since it purchases equity securities, the Fund is subject to the risk that stock prices will fall over short or extended periods of time. Historically, the equity markets have moved in cycles, and the value of the Fund’s equity securities may fluctuate from day to day. 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Technology companies may experience dramatic and often unpredictable changes in growth rates and competition for qualified personnel. These companies are also heavily dependent on patent and intellectual property rights, the loss or impairment of which may adversely impact a company’s profitability. A small number of companies represent a large portion of the technology industry. In addition, a rising interest rate environment tends to negatively affect technology companies, those technology companies seeking to finance expansion would have increased borrowing costs, which may negatively impact earnings. Technology companies having high market valuations may appear less attractive to investors, which may cause sharp decreases in their market prices. A Stock I’m Watching WESCO (WCC) is on my watchlist as a “picks-and-shovels” way to play the AI data-center buildout and grid/electrification capex without adding another software-style duration bet: management reported 2025 data-center sales of $4.3B (about ~18% of company sales), up ~50% YoY, with Q4 data-center sales of $1.2B, up ~30% YoY, and total company backlog up 19% YoY to a record—real-world demand signals that hyperscale + power infrastructure spend is translating into orders. For 2026, they guided to 5–8% reported sales growth, ~6.8% adj. EBITDA margin (midpoint), $14.50–$16.50 adj. EPS, and $500–$800M of free cash flow, while planning to lift the dividend to $2.00/share—so the core debate is cash conversion + project mix (large projects can pressure margins/working capital short term) more than “is the end market real.” The countertrend angle: if macro/rate volatility or working-capital noise creates a pullback while backlog/data-center momentum stays intact, you’re getting an infrastructure compounder at a much more reasonable setup than the “already-perfect” AI names. Biggest things I’d monitor are (1) WDCS/data-center backlog conversion and margin profile, (2) UBS stability as utility spending improves, and (3) whether their digitization/data-lake initiative actually tightens pricing discipline and working-capital turns. In Case You Missed It Talking with Josh Brown about European Digital Sovereignty and European Defense…. I had the pleasure of speaking about UFOD on Stocks on Spaces Wednesday. Strangely we got cut off right as we were talking about potential Raytheon technology, so it’s in two parts….. The H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. 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