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Reading the Options Tape for Investment Clues THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Reading the Options Tape for Investment Clues Reading the Options Tape for Investment Clues Aug 11, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🧠 The --- H.E.A.T. Formula Edge: Reading the Options … 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now — # (# ) Another big up day in the market Friday. Last week we were talking about a correction, this week we are talking about threatening all time highs…… Watch rates, they came down hard on last Friday’s jobs number, but they started ticking back up Wednesday-Friday this week….. This may be the only thing that can slow this market down at this point as traders seem to have become numb to the tariffs. Watch out if we get a hotter than expected CPI print this week. More data this week, as I said above, we have CPI on Tuesday, PPI is on Thursday, and Retail Sales on Friday. With the whole world assuming the Fed will cut in September, and some pundits thinking it will be a big cut, inflation numbers ought to be important. I think if we get a benign CPI print then you can look for Powell to use that as an excuse for a dovish pivot. Story of the day likely to be crypto. Bitcoin is over $121k and approaching all time highs, Ethereum is at all time highs. As part of the --- H.E.A.T. Formula inspired version of the classic Permanent Portfolio we recommend a static allocation to crypto, for me it’s 12.5% (delta adjusted). If you are looking to add crypto to your portfolio (see below about BEGS) I wouldn’t suggest doing it on days like today, I much prefer to be buying the dips. Crypto bulls love to see something negative on the cover of Barron’s….. Another big mover today looks to be lithium, which we talked about a couple of weeks ago….. Lithium Market Soars as CATL Shuts One of World’s Biggest Mines-Bloomberg So we are sitting at an interesting potential crossroad in the markets. US equities continue to make new highs with no real reason not to, except that everyone thinks they are extended. Crypto is making new highs, gold is making new highs, and bonds are doing nothing. Vanguard’s advice? The 60/40 portfolio isn’t working so add more bonds….. Vanguard's Latest Allocation Guidance Is Turning Heads Vanguard's Latest Allocation Guidance Is Turning Heads www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/vanguards-latest-allocation-guidance-turning-heads?mkt_tok=NjY2LVBIQS05NTgAAAGcNmCQpsjukQ_dsEFguwkQww0LjyXK6Ah5LiR2tV4tPRyZ1cSISE-xcg7fiu8qKEy5jDKekmo5aUmKzSJnw86nqA6ZG73LMElc9sDWzS81 ❝ Earlier this week, the firm recommended a portfolio mix of 70% bonds and 30% stocks. I do get that stocks seem extended, but the themes keep rolling with no real reason to stop. I also get that the Fed is probably going to lower interest rates, but inflation probably isn’t going anywhere so it is highly unlikely we see the next golden age of bonds. For those of you in or near retirement, or just looking to build wealth, I’m sorry a 30/70 portfolio isn’t likely to cut it. There is a proper way to use bonds (T-bills), and lots of them, when constructing asymmetrical portfolios that have a chance at returns. It’s complicated, maybe a webinar on it at some point. 🧠 The --- H.E.A.T. Formula Edge: Reading the Options Tape for Investment Clues I saw this article on Friday….. Opinion: How options trading in Palantir, Uber and Fortinet gave clues to the stocks’ postearnings moves-MarketWatch I’m typically not a fan of trying to discern possible earnings moves from options activity as traders are going to be very active pre earnings, and if someone really knows something they will be impossible to detect in all the noise. I do think watching options trades, especially unusual ones, can help provide an edge. The cool thing about options is they have an expiration date and a strike price. So for example, if a trader spent $1 million on NVDA calls that expire on Friday at $200, you can reasonably assume that he/she has some reason to believe NVDA will be at least 20 points higher in a couple of days. This alone may not tell you anything, there are plenty of things I think are going to happen in the market that don’t. But, large short term options trades in a stock you already like can give you an added edge. Even more powerful can be really unusual trades. A stock like NVDA trades a ton of options, like any stock pre earnings this can get noisy. But if you see large, short term options trades in stocks that typically aren’t that active, that could be more reflective that somebody knows something. Why Short-Dated OTM Options Matter Leverage on conviction : When someone steps in and drops size on OTM calls or puts that expire in days, they’re making a binary bet — either they know something or they’re betting the odds are in their favor. Information asymmetry : Institutions and specialist traders often have faster access to channel checks, supply chain intel, or statistical edges. No “investment” cushion : Unlike stock, options expire quickly. A trader putting on size with a ticking clock is signaling urgency. Reading Large, Short-Term, OTM Trades Large block trades in short-dated, OTM options can be a tell: Aggressive Call Buying → Suggests traders betting on upside momentum or a positive catalyst. Aggressive Put Buying → Could be outright bearish bets, or hedges against big long stock positions. Unusual Volume vs. Open Interest → Sudden spikes in short-term contracts often indicate event-driven positioning (earnings, FDA decisions, M&A). Why It’s Useful: Institutions with informational or analytical advantages (e.g., channel checks, proprietary data models) may act on that edge through the options market because it offers high leverage for short-term moves. Limitations and Risks False Positives — Not all large trades are directional bets; some are complex hedges. Short-Term Nature — OTM short-dated options tell you what traders think right now , not the long-term outlook. Liquidity & Noise — Illiquid names can show “unusual” volume that’s meaningless. Tactical Implementation To make this actionable: Build a historical earnings move vs. implied move database for all major holdings/watchlist names. Monitor unusual options activity feeds for size, strike, expiry, and whether trades hit the bid/ask (to see buyer/seller intent). Cross-reference with known catalysts (earnings, investor days, product launches). Use as a signal enhancer , not a sole trading trigger — combine with fundamental and quant signals. There are a number of services that can help with this. @jbulltard1 and @kiantrades have paid services. There is also Unusual Whales. Gold and bitcoin are both vying to be safe havens for investors. Why gold is winning so far this year.-MarketWatch When will people realize it’s Gold AND Bitcoin, not Gold OR Bitcoin…… — # (# ) 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is Ormat Technologies (ORA)…. This one pisses me off because I got in early, got stopped out, and forgot about it. To the best of my knowledge it’s the only publicly traded geothermal stock. Jefferies just reiterated their buy rating on Friday with a $97 price target. I’m most interested in applications for AI power….. ❝ Data centers. What about those 250MWs under negotiation? Mgmt. reiterated 250MWs of data center opportunity under negotiation, similar to commentary last quarter and the quarter before too. While investors are getting antsy, mgmt. did note that ORA is increasingly confident on these contracts coming to fruition, hoping to announce something in coming months. Jefferies 📬 --- In Case You Missed It CCUP (2x CRCL) Launches Today!!!!! GLXU launched Friday….. — # (# ) 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0