OBBBA(One Big Beautiful Bill): 주식에 실제로 미치는 영향

One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA): What It Really Means for Stocks THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA): What It Really Means for Stocks One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA): What It Really Means for Stocks Aug 25, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🧠 One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA): What It Really … The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Neve … 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now — # (# ) As you know I was a bit worried what Powell would say at Jackson Hole, I shouldn’t have been. He decided to shift away from the Fed’s 2% inflation target and shift to more of a focus on the labor market, all but ensuring a September cut. ❝ : “…with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance .” Pretty much every asset class liked this. Love the days when you have stocks, precious metals, crypto, and hedges, and everything goes up so much you hardly feel the hedges. Speaking of precious metals and crypto….. — # (# ) Over the weekend it looks like someone dumped a bunch of Bitcoin, which has retraced all of Friday’s gains and then some…. Ethereum is down as well, but showing relative strength…. Powell’s seeming pivot of course begs a few questions, one being whether tariffs are inflationary and whether inflation can be kept under control? We will find out. This also brings about the possibility of dreaded stagflation if the Fed is not able to control inflation or boost the labor market. Of course these are all problems for another day. In the meantime….. — # (# ) Markets are a bit weaker so far this morning, not shocking after a large up move on Friday. However, beware, sometimes Fed induced moves reverse the next day. Key event for this week is NVDA earnings on Wednesday, we also have PCE later in the week. Headlines like this show why you need a new way to approach your investments. Investing for income puts you at the mercy of the Fed and all the cross currents that go into interest rate policy. To me, that’s no way to enjoy retirement. Instead, you need a flexible approach that can adjust to what’s going on….. Retirees: The news from Jackson Hole is ominous for you Why the independence of the Federal Reserve is essential to retirees — and everyone else. www.marketwatch.com/story/retirees-the-news-from-jackson-hole-is-ominous-for-you-9ca906f0?mod=home_lead 🧠 One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA): What It Really Means for Stocks Bottom line: OBBBA is a front-loaded fiscal impulse (6–18 months) that channels money into immediate expensing of capex/R&D , defense outlays, and targeted household support. It’s not a TCJA-style, tide-lifts-all-boats tax cut; it’s a rifle shot . That means dispersion : certain themes, sectors, and sizes get clear tailwinds, others don’t. Treat this as a tactical tailwind with portfolio-level implications , not a decade-long reset. What’s in the Bill that actually matters to equities Immediate expensing = the big lever ~ $200B in cash tax savings over 2025–26 for domestic capex/R&D. This pulls forward FCF for capex-intensive and R&D-heavy companies (Software, Media/Entertainment, Pharma; Telcos also see FCF relief). AI/Datacenter gets cash relief Hyperscalers and AI infra (domestically sited) benefit on both capex and R&D expensing. Expect more reinvestment , but also smoother FCF to offset the capex burn. Defense gets a near-term bump ~ $150B one-time, with ~$43B spent by YE-26, plus tax relief where domestic content expands. Household supports are tactical Low-end gets an upfront pop (overtime/tips/car interest/CTC) → holiday/Q1 refund season boost . High/mid-income look better sustained over 18 months. Small caps get help from expensing and interest deductibility back to 30% of EBITDA (vs. EBIT) → better cash flow to offset tariff pressure. Macro thrust: modest but positive through ’26; the headline deficit path isn’t TCJA-big, but front-load + expensing means cash flow pulls forward now . Risks: long-end yields if deficit concerns resurface; implementation complexity ; domestic-use tests; 20-year asset life rules; tariff stickiness . First-order winners (direct cash-flow tailwinds) • 1) Immediate expensing beneficiaries (capex/R&D heavy): Software / Media / Pharma: higher R&D, faster cash recycling. (Think: platform software with heavy R&D, large content producers with capexizable tech, and big-cap pharma/bio with US-based research.) Telcos: managements flagged multi-year FCF improvement . • 2) AI/Datacenter chain (domestic capex/R&D): Compute + networking: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL Fabrics / switching: $ANET Integration (volume sensitive): $DELL $HPE (watch GM%) , $SMCI (most reflexive) Optics/power components: $COHR $LITE $AAOI $MPWR $ON Power/thermal/electrical: $VRT $MOD $ETN $HUBB $POWL Colo & interconnect: $EQIX $DLR • 3) Defense primes & subs: Primes: $LMT $NOC $GD $RTX $HII $LHX Fuel/materials: $BWXT (nuclear, TRISO; also indirectly via AI-power trend) • 4) Utilities/IPPs with DC exposure (domestic power): Dispatchable / PPAs: $CEG $VST $NRG $TLN Regulated corridors: $ETR $WEC $CNP $PPL $OGE • 5) SMid domestics: US-heavy revenue/capex + interest deductibility bump → better cash flow math ; dereg bias helps SMid over large. Second-order winners (enablement, spillovers) Grid build-out: $PWR $MYRG $ABB $ENR $GEV (transmission/HVDC/protection; long lead times = pricing power). Green/IRA exposed: recent bill changes less punitive than feared; short-covering possible as rates cool and energy security narrative grows. Asset managers: small tailwind via new “Trump Accounts and Contribution Pilot Program” (timing uncertain). Select consumer names: a tactical pop at the low end into holidays/Q1 refunds (overtime, tips, CTC) before fading. Likely losers (or relative underperformers) Healthcare: pricing scrutiny, ACA exchanges tweaks, mandatory spend noise; drug pricing risk rises; medtech/services less clear but tread carefully. Import-heavy small caps unable to onshore → tariff drag . Capex abroad → misses domestic expensing benefits (multinationals with non-US bias). Single-jurisdiction DC developers facing NIMBY/permitting (e.g., parts of VA); levered EPCs without power locked. How to invest it ( --- H.E.A.T. playbook) Themes: Immediate Expensing / AI-Power Grid / Defense as Policy Core (durable cash flows, 6–18 months): Power/Electrical/Thermal: $ETN $VRT $HUBB $POWL Utilities/IPPs: $CEG $VST $NRG $ETR Colo/Interconnect: $EQIX $DLR Defense: $LMT $NOC $RTX $BWXT Expensing / R&D sleeve: Software/Media/Pharma/Telcos with US-based spend; bias to names guiding to cash tax rate down , FCF up . AI infra barbell: Compute/fabrics: $NVDA $AVGO $ANET Integrators (sized for volatility): $HPE $DELL $SMCI SMid domestic tilt: Industrials/tech with US capex footprints; net-interest relief + expensing = better FCF vs. tariffs. Pairs / hedges: Long money-center financials vs regionals if dereg sequence favors the former; asset managers small long (pilot program optionality). Long defense primes vs short over-owned growth health care with pricing risk. Long AI power/electrical ($ETN/$VRT/$CEG) vs short a basket of unprofitable AI platforms (capex sentiment hedge). For levered integrators/optics exposure, carry put spreads into macro windows. What to watch (near-term catalysts) 3Q earnings : more explicit OBBBA commentary; cash tax guidance; domestic capex/R&D ramps. Non-commenced lease burn-down (data centers), PPA announcements , transformer/HVDC lead times . Defense awards and US manufacturing content markers. Household spend : low-end outlays into holidays/Q1 refunds (overtime/tips/CTC). Long-end yields : rising deficits vs growth cushion; watch 10s/30s into heavy Treasury supply. Can this keep going? Yes, tactically (6–18 months). The bill front-loads cash to corporates/households while back-loading savings. Mag7 + large caps can finance the cycle; utilities/grid are still gating; SMid cash math improves. Not a TCJA replay. Less broad, more targeted. Expect dispersion and stock-picking alpha , not a one-way index trade. The Take OBBBA helps exactly where the market already has secular tailwinds— immediate expensing, AI/data-center power, and defense —and it tilts SMid domestics in a world of tariffs. Own the cash-flow stack that benefits now (electrical/power/defense/colo) and the names that reinvest with discipline . Pair it with policy-sensitive hedges (healthcare pricing, importers, levered EPCs). This is a macro nudge , not a panacea—treat it as a 6–18-month tailwind with real dispersion to harvest. Please register for our next webinar: The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover Wednesday August 27, 2-3pm EST -Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead -Why covered call strategies suck, and what may be much better - How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes - 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market - How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns - Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns - 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds Click Below to Register The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover register.gotowebinar.com/register/2624613869727898967 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is QXO…… While I am a huge believer in investing in the top themes, I also believe you invest in the top people. As Tony Robbins says, “success leaves clues”…. A Bet on QXO Stock Is a Bet on This Billionaire. Why It’s Time to Buy. Building-products supplier QXO is led by Brad Jacobs, who made two other companies leaders in their sectors. www.barrons.com/articles/buy-qxo-stock-price-pick-9bfb597f?mod=hp_STOCKPICKS_2 📬 --- In Case You Missed It — # (# ) 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0