한 달을 시작하기 위한 모멘텀 매도만큼 좋은 것은 없습니다

Nothing Like a Momentum Sell Off To Start the Month THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Nothing Like a Momentum Sell Off To Start the Month Nothing Like a Momentum Sell Off To Start the Month Jul 2, 2025 Subscribe now Share Note: I am traveling tomorrow so Daily --- H.E.A.T. will be back next week Is Fiscal Dominance Replacing Monetary Dominance?-Why 60/40 Still Sucks …… Here Come the Robots….China Enters the Weight Loss War — # (# ) All the momentum stocks that did so well last month got hit yesterday. Nothing out of the ordinary, figure a lot of start of the month rebalancing. The key question now is whether it’s a one off move or the start of a larger rotation. There is a lot of froth in some of these names so some sort of rotation would not be out of the ordinary. ❝ The catalyst for the rotation is unknown. Reversion strategies may have been triggered. Potentially, it was the end of a remarkable quarter creating the opportunity for a defensive rotation. The timing works out, since tariff headlines are set to return next week and earnings season commences the following week. We had an ugly three-day unwind back in March as the S&P 500 corrected from the previous record highs. There were also single-day episodes similar to today in January and December. These episodes were more frequent in 2020 and 2021. Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading ❝ Trade headlines resulted in some market volatility with Trump suggesting that he would not extend the July 9th deadline. If confirmed it would be a slight negative as the market has come to view that 9th July deadline as bit if a non event. Trump had previously indicated that the 10% rate regime would be extended for countries where negotiations are already ongoing. Mohit Kumar, Jefferies Keep an eye on DJT, James Bultard flagged a large put sale yesterday. Could be nothing, or wishful thinking on my part as I’ve gotten killed in this name, but we will see. Not only are these guys following a bitcoin treasury theme they are also launching bitcoin ETFs and plan to appeal to MAGA. I now people on the left put their money where their values are (ESG), never seen people on the right do it in any size. If these guys can pull it off it could be huge. 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Portfolio Design 🧠 Is Fiscal Dominance Replacing Monetary Dominance?—Why 60/40 Still Sucks This tweet caught my eye. Never been a fan of 60/40 for a number of reasons but never really thought about it in this way before. Why I argue for precious metals, crypto, and using preferred shares for bond exposure. — # (# ) ✅ YES — This is a highly plausible thesis. In academic terms, fiscal dominance occurs when monetary policy becomes subordinate to the financing needs of the government , i.e., the central bank must keep interest rates low or inflation elevated to ease public debt burdens. Compare this to monetary dominance , where central banks independently target inflation , and fiscal policy takes a backseat. Key Indicators of Fiscal Dominance (2020s): Exploding debt-to-GDP ratios (U.S. over 120%, Japan ~250%) Interest costs as a % of GDP exceeding defense spending Central banks delaying rate hikes or cuts due to fiscal fragility QE morphing into de facto debt monetization Chronic primary deficits with no political will to shrink them These are not theoretical. They are empirically observable now . The recent reluctance of central banks to push policy rates as high as Taylor Rules imply—despite sticky inflation—is a textbook sign of creeping fiscal dominance. ❝ 📘 Sargent and Wallace ( • 1981) and Leeper ( • 1991) laid the foundation for this concept. Timmer’s assertion maps almost perfectly to their frameworks: when fiscal authorities don’t adjust, monetary policy loses its anchor . 🔁 Regime Shift: End of the Great Moderation The “Great Moderation” (mid-1980s to ~ • 2019) was marked by: Low inflation Disinflationary globalization Independent central banks Negative stock/bond correlation In this regime: Bonds offered high Sharpe ratios 60/40 worked because bonds rallied when stocks fell Treasuries were both a risk-off hedge and a positive-returning asset That regime broke in 2022 . Inflation and rate shocks caused both stocks and bonds to fall , flipping correlations positive— killing risk parity and damaging 60/40 returns. 🔮 Implications for 60/40, Gold, Bitcoin, and Alternatives 🔻 60/40 Portfolio: Under Siege Metric Great Moderation (Pre- • 2022) Fiscal Dominance (Post- • 2022) Bond Returns High, positive real yields Capped, negative real yields Stock/Bond Correl. Negative Positive or unstable Diversification Easy Much harder Inflation Hedging Built-in Must be actively added ❝ Conclusion: The "40" is impaired by duration risk and lack of anti-fragility. It’s not dead—but it’s lost its automatic utility. 🪙 Gold: The New Long Bond? Gold has historically done poorly in low-inflation, rate-normalizing regimes (e.g., 1980s–90s). But in fiscal dominance —where real yields are suppressed and inflation is tolerated —gold shines. Unlike bonds, gold has no default risk , no yield drag, and thrives when monetary credibility deteriorates. ❝ Analogy: In a monetary-dominant world, you want bonds. In a fiscal-dominant world , gold behaves like a store-of-value “bond” substitute . 📈 2020–2025 data supports this: Gold has outperformed long-duration bonds despite rising nominal yields —something nearly impossible under monetary dominance. ₿ Bitcoin: The Digital Hard Asset Like gold, BTC benefits from negative real rates and fiat instability . Its supply cap and anti-debasement narrative make it a logical complement to gold in fiscal dominance regimes. Historically more volatile—but high Sharpe ratio vs traditional risk assets , especially during liquidity stress. ❝ Think of Bitcoin as gold with optionality and non-sovereign settlement rails . 🧩 Alternatives & “Stuff” If the 40 is broken, you need a new diversification leg : Infrastructure, farmland, commodity equities Volatility strategies, convexity overlays Market-neutral long/shorts or quant macro Cash is now viable too: 4–6% yield with zero duration risk is competitive when bonds are impaired. 🧮 Suggested New Allocation (Based on Timmer’s View) Old 60/40 New Allocation (Fiscal Dominance) 60% Stocks 60% Stocks (but more global/cyclical) 40% Bonds 20% Bonds + 10% Gold + 5% Bitcoin + 5% Alts ❝ This is a modular framework —not fixed. But it reflects a world where safe bonds are no longer neutral hedges and hard assets matter again. 📌 Conclusion: This Thesis Holds Up Fiscal dominance is not only plausible , it’s empirically observable . The old rules of diversification no longer apply. Investors must explicitly hedge inflation, policy failure, and fiscal inertia . Gold and Bitcoin are no longer fringe—they are mathematically justified in this environment. 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes 🤖 Household Robots in 10 Years, Surgery Across the Hemisphere—Who Wins, Who Loses? 1. Robotics Boom: Market Context Amazon prediction: CEO Andy Jassy forecasts “most houses will have a robot within 10 years”—Amazon already uses 1 million warehouse robots and is innovating in home robotics . China’s milestone: Chinese doctors conducted robotic surgery from 5,000 km away, enabled by 5G and satellite links. These trends signal fast adoption in home and medical domains. — # (# ) — # (# ) 2. 🏆 Winners in Robotics Company Segment Why They Win Score Amazon (AMZN) Warehouse / Home Robotics 1 million robots deployed; DeepFleet AI model; moves downstream into homes 9 iRobot (IRBT) Household Robots Market leader in robot vacuums; brand recognition; benefits from rising volume 8 Ecovacs (China) Household Robots 60%+ share in China; low-cost scalable platforms 8 Boston Dynamics (HYMTF) Industrial / Humanoid Robotics Atlas, Spot platforms; Hyundai backing; focus on advanced mobility 8 Ubtech Robotics Humanoid / Service Robots Chinese IPO, educational and industrial robots with AI tie-ins 7 Unitree (China, private) Humanoid Robotics Viral G1 unit; cost-effective hardware appeal 7 The Bot Company (private) AI Home Robots $2B valuation; ex-Tesla/Cruise team; AI-first home robot play 7 Figure Robotics (private) Humanoid Robots MSFT/OpenAI/Bezos backing; ambitious humanoid roadmap 7 MicroPort (China) Surgical Robotics Commercial authorization of remote surgery platform 8 Agility Robotics (private) Humanoid / Industrial Digit robot for warehouse/logistics; U.S. investment 7 3. Suppliers to Robotics Winners These firms provide components (sensors, AI chips, semiconductors, actuators) essential to winner platforms: NVIDIA (NVDA): GPUs for ROS and AI vision Amazon (corollary): AWS for AI backend Intel (INTC): CPUs/PXPs, Movidius VPUs Qualcomm (QCOM): SoCs for edge inference Sony (SONY): Cameras and imaging sensors TE Connectivity: Precision connectors and actuators ABB / FANUC: Robotic peripherals and motion controls 4. Robotics-Losing Aspect 📉 Labor-intensive services firms: Cleaning, delivery, warehousing jobs. Low-tech appliance firms: Traditional vacuum cleaners, manual tools. Telecom/IT: If communication is robust and robots go mainstream, new networks are in demand—but legacy telco may be bypassed for private networks. 🔚 Final Take This home-robot and remote-surgery news cements robotics as a real mega-theme , not sci-fi. Amazon and iRobot/Ecovacs are positioned to lead consumer adoption. Boston Dynamics spearheads enterprise robotics. And surgical systems like MicroPort are unlocking global telemedicine. Simultaneously, suppliers like Intel, NVIDIA, Sony are critical backbone players. Labor-intensive firms face displacement—but that’s the cost of automation. 🔥 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes — # (# ) ⚠️ Headline Insight China just approved mazdutide , a dual GLP-1/glucagon agonist licensed from Lilly via Innovent Biologics—making it the world’s first dual-action obesity drug to launch. It marks a serious challenge to existing players in a massive and growing market 🌍 China’s Obesity Opportunity Over 600 million overweight adults projected by 2050. Market forecast to explode, with China’s GLP‑1 market expected to grow ~23% annually, reaching ~$11 bn by 2033 . Wegovy (Novo) and Zepbound (Lilly) were first movers in China; their patents on semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic) expire in 2026, opening room for domestics. 💊 What Mazdutide Brings to the Table Dual mechanism (GLP‑1 + glucagon): Boosts both appetite suppression and energy expenditure. Clinical results: 14.8% average weight loss at 48 weeks; ~50% lost ≥15% body weight. Locally produced: Lower price point vs imported drugs; Chinese biotechs advancing rapidly (e.g., ecnoglutide) 📈 Impact on Novo (NVO) & Lilly (LLY) Eli Lilly (LLY) Short-term: Neutral to slightly positive—shares in R&D upside, as Mazdutide stems from licensed LLY technology. Mid-to-long term: Negative—pricing erosion and market share losses in China once mazdutide launches and cheaper biosimilars follow. Rating: 6/10 — retains IP upside, but growth dampened regionally. Novo Nordisk (NVO) Short-term: Possible softening in Chinese uptake of Wegovy/Ozempic, though exclusivity holds until generic entry post-2026. Long-term: Hit by competition and biosimilar pressure; patents expiring soon, raising risk of commoditization. Rating: 6/10 — global leadership intact, but China becomes a contested battleground sooner. ✅ Strategist Summary China’s local innovation wave is strong: government backing, price sensitivity, and clinical performance make mazdutide a viable rival + Lilly benefits short-term from licensing deals but will cannibalize its own future market in China. Novo risk: Patent cliff + domestic competition could meaningfully erode long-term Chinese revenue share. 📌 Bottom Line This signals a shift: prior GLP-1 dominators (NVO, LLY) face serious domestic competition in China. LLY: Best-case, mazdutide adds revenue via license; worst-case, it undermines Zepbound’s China roll-out. NVO: No license upside, patent expiration exposes Wegovy to local pricing pressure and loss of market share. Both now need strategies to invest in Chinese biotech partnerships or fast-track next-gen molecules to retain share. Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unschackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0