어쩌면 Magnificent 7이 과대평가되지 않았을 수도 있습니다.

Maybe the Magnificent 7 Aren't Overvalued THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Maybe the Magnificent 7 Aren't Overvalued Maybe the Magnificent 7 Aren't Overvalued AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Feb 18, 2025 Subscribe now Share The --- H.E.A.T. Formula is a radically different way to look at investing your portfolio. ‍H- Hedges, you should always have hedges and be agnostic as to being long or short. Bonds are not a hedge ‍E-Edges, you should always look for edges. Preferably these are edges with some sort of psychological underpinning, structural edges, or some sort of barrier to entry. ‍A-Asymmetric. Everything you do, be it trades or your overall portfolio, should be designed so that heads you win a lot, tails you lose a little. ‍T-Themes. You should always be invested in the top themes. Most everything else is just noise. Our Next Webinar Uncovering Hidden Themes with AI: How DeepSeek Is Rewriting the Investment Playbook Thu, Feb 27, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EST 1. Bullets From DeepSeek to Disruptors: Explore how one AI breakthrough (DeepSeek) reveals cost-effective strategies and under-the-radar opportunities beyond mainstream tech giants. 2. Finding Alpha in the Noise: Learn how AI-driven data-mining cuts through market hype and identifies genuine growth catalysts—even in emerging or overlooked sectors. 3. Comparing & Contrasting Strategies: Discover how to harness AI to evaluate different investment approaches. https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/1337947766275418457 Market Recap Equity Markets: S&P 500: The index advanced by 1.5% for the week, approaching record highs. marketwatch.com Dow Jones Industrial Average: Gained 0.5%, reflecting steady performance. marketwatch.com Nasdaq Composite: Led with a 2.6% increase, driven by robust earnings in the technology sector. marketwatch.com Market Resilience Despite Inflation and Policy Uncertainty The market shrugged off higher CPI & PPI prints, likely due to optimism around forward-looking inflation signals. Powell reaffirmed no rush to cut rates, while Trump continues pushing for cuts. Retail sales disappointed, but tech strength helped drive the S&P 500 up. Key Corporate Highlights: Airbnb (ABNB): Shares surged over 14% following strong quarterly profits and expansion plans in Asia and Latin America. wsj.com Robinhood (HOOD): Experienced a 14% stock increase due to a significant rise in quarterly profits, bolstered by heightened cryptocurrency trading. wsj.com Applied Materials (AMAT): Shares fell 8% after forecasting second-quarter revenue below estimates. reuters.com The "Magnificent 7" rebounded (AAPL +7%, NVDA +7%), and AI remains the dominant theme. Super Micro (SMCI +32%) delivered a massive beat and sees $40B in FY26 revenue—far ahead of consensus. Intel (INTC +24%) spiked on speculation that TSM & AVGO may help rescue its foundry business. AI Networking stocks (SMTC -32%, ANET -10%, CRDO -8%) faced selling pressure, raising questions about Blackwell timing and rack architecture changes. Keep an eye on this….. Nvidia investors should brace for some Blackwell ‘growing pains’ to show up with earnings report -MarketWatch Economic Indicators: Inflation: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in January, the largest increase since July 2023, raising concerns about potential impacts on Federal Reserve interest rate policies. marketwatch.com Retail Sales: January saw a 0.9% decline in retail sales, surpassing the anticipated 0.2% drop, attributed to post-holiday consumer pullback and adverse weather conditions. marketwatch.com Bond Market: Treasury Yields: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.47%, influenced by weak retail sales data and increased expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. advisorperspectives.com Municipal Bonds: There's a growing trend toward municipal bond ETFs, with high-yield muni bonds offering tax-equivalent yields slightly over 9%. marketwatch.com Policy Developments: Tariffs: President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum introduced potential challenges for companies like Coca-Cola, which reported a 4.7% increase in shares after outlining strategies to manage these tariffs. wsj.com Jefferies on tariffs…… ❝ We do admit that we will some volatility around tariff headlines, but market is getting increasingly desensitized to tariff announcements. Our view remains that tariffs are a negotiation tool and eventually will not be as bad as feared. Banking Regulations: The administration's focus on containing long-term U.S. Treasury yields has fueled expectations of a potential review of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rule, which could impact banks' capital requirements and demand for Treasuries. reuters.com Overall, despite inflationary pressures and policy uncertainties, the stock market demonstrated strength, buoyed by positive corporate earnings and investor optimism. The current market dynamics indicate a strategic shift from mega-cap technology stocks to sectors like Communication Services, Financials, and Healthcare. This rotation reflects investor efforts to capitalize on emerging opportunities and manage risks associated with overvalued tech stocks. Market Looks Strong, But Watch for a Minor Pullback ✅ SPY is in an uptrend and remains bullish, but it’s short-term overbought. 📉 Expect some consolidation or a small pullback before the next breakout. 🚀 If SPY clears 610-612, next target = 620+ 💡 Strategy Recommendation: Buy the dip near 602-604 support if SPY consolidates Wait for a confirmed breakout above 612 before chasing new highs If RSI cools off while price remains stable, it’s a bullish continuation sign Investors Haven’t Been This Pessimistic About Stocks Since 2023 -WSJ First off, investors are often wrong, second, this is why you should always have hedges. Meanwhile, can’t say we didn’t tell you this was going to happen….. Defense Rally Pushes European Stocks to New Record -WSJ 3 Reasons It’s Time to Sell Some Magnificent 7 Stock -Barron’s In the late 90s I was a broker and I will never forget not understanding how AMZN could be worth more than Borders and Barnes and Noble combined. All they did at the time was sell books online, they didn’t make money, and had no prospects of making money. Both Borders and Barnes and Noble had stores all over, and made money. What I missed was the pivot from selling books to selling everything, and the pivot to buying in stores to buying online (I can’t remember the last time I was in a store). When I see articles about the Magnificent 7 being overvalued I agree that it’s possible. However, in all aspects of future technology, AI, Quantum, etc, they are also the leaders. It is not inconceivable that continued advances could create a similar pivot for one, or all of these stocks. I had GPT take a deep dive on this, and rate each stock from 1-10…… 1. Key Points from the Article The M7 are trailing the market in early 2025 The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF is up about 1% this year, versus 2.6% for the S&P 500. The group’s extraordinary multi-year outperformance has cooled. Concentration Risk is Elevated The M7 collectively makes up ~30% of the S&P 500 by market cap, and ~45% beta‐adjusted weight. This near-record weighting suggests active managers who own them at market weight are heavily exposed to these seven names. Record Spending and Margins The M7’s spending-to-sales ratio stands at ~14.5%, an all-time high. While big AI/quantum R&D could drive future transformation, the near‐term drag on margins and free cash flow can be a concern if the investing cycle extends or if top-line growth slows. Sell/Trim Recommendation Trivariate’s founder Adam Parker has turned cautious, worried about high valuations, capex burdens, and cyclical or regulation headwinds. He believes it’s now “prudent” for managers to be under- or equal-weight rather than overweight the M7. 2. Why Some Investors Remain Bullish (a la “Amazon in the Late ’90s”) Historic Transformations As you note, many believed Amazon was “just a bookstore” in the ’90s, missing the bigger story. Similarly, the M7 might each tap AI, HPC, quantum, robotics, or next‐gen software to transform in ways not fully priced in today. Massive R&D War Chest M7’s spending also indicates a willingness to pivot and innovate in new areas. Microsoft invests in quantum computing (e.g. Azure Quantum), Google invests in both AI and quantum labs, Amazon invests in HPC with AWS, etc. Network Effects & Ecosystems Each M7 stock has a large, sticky ecosystem—like Apple’s hardware+services, Amazon’s retail+cloud, Meta’s social+VR, Alphabet’s search+cloud+AI, Microsoft’s enterprise+cloud+AI, Nvidia’s HPC hardware, Tesla’s EV+robotics+Dojo. This entrenched position gives them the advantage to tackle new tech waves from a position of strength. AI & Quantum Could be the Next Cloud Fifteen years ago, few envisioned that cloud would be so massive. Now AI (particularly generative) and HPC meltdown mania illusions overshadow expansions is the new frontier. The M7 have the resources, brand, distribution, and IP to lead or co‐lead. Even if near-term stock price performance is choppy, some see them as “AI picks with scale.” 3. Ratings: M7 AI & Quantum Potential Below is a broad “1–10” rating for each M7 name, focusing on how AI+quantum might supercharge longer-term transformations. A 1 would be minimal synergy, 10 would be maximum potential. Nvidia (NVDA) – Rating: 10/10 Core : The de facto GPU leader for AI training/inference. HPC meltdown mania illusions overshadow expansions revolve around GPU clusters for LLMs, plus quantum-hybrid HPC in the future. Why 10 : It’s the single best direct hardware beneficiary of AI compute. They also invest in quantum partnerships and HPC software stacks. Risk : Potential competition from custom ASICs, CPU+GPU combos, or Chinese GPU providers. DeepSeek Did Nvidia a Favor -WSJ ❝ And most of those companies are still planning to shovel many billions more Nvidia’s way. DeepSeek won’t be making Nvidia come up short just yet. Microsoft (MSFT) – Rating: 9.5/10 Core : Huge AI push with Azure, OpenAI partnership, quantum services (Azure Quantum). “Copilot” integration in Office + enterprise. Why ~9.5 : They span cloud HPC, enterprise software, quantum R&D, plus widely integrated AI in consumer and enterprise. Risk : Already heavily owned, so any macro or re-rating can weigh on MSFT’s multiple. Alphabet (GOOGL) – Rating: 9/10 Core : Pioneered many AI breakthroughs (Transformer architecture, DeepMind, quantum labs). Cloud’s HPC might see further synergy. Why ~9 : They have top-tier AI research, own search (which can be overhauled by generative AI). Also invests in quantum. Risk : High capex for HPC and AI—some fear margin compression if AI monetization lags. Also competition from other large models. Amazon (AMZN) – Rating: 9/10 Core : AWS is a top HPC+AI cloud provider, invests in quantum (Braket), plus retail AI personalization. Why ~9 : Potential to integrate AI deeper into e-commerce, logistics, cloud. Could pivot into HPC meltdown mania illusions overshadow expansions with new hardware solutions. Risk : High spending on multiple expansions (retail, shipping) can weigh on near-term profits. Apple (AAPL) – Rating: 8.5/10 Core : AI in consumer devices (Siri, on‐device ML). Potential quantum synergy is less public. Expanding HPC meltdown mania illusions overshadow expansions? Possibly for big data on Apple devices, or AR/VR. Why 8.5 : Apple’s user base and ecosystem can adopt advanced AI rapidly. They have big R&D for AR, custom silicon, privacy-first on-device AI. Risk : Apple is more hardware/experience oriented, so it’s not as “openly AI-driven” as Microsoft or Alphabet. Siri lags. Could catch up with local language models. Meta Platforms (META) – Rating: 8/10 Core : AI for content curation, Llama open-source, Reality Labs VR push. HPC meltdown mania illusions overshadow expansions might revolve around user data. Why 8 : Large language models, open-source AI, plus big moves in generative AI for ads & experiences. VR could integrate large speech or generative systems. Risk : Ongoing cost concerns with Reality Labs, pivot from ad issues. Also overshadowed by OpenAI, Google, and private upstarts in generative AI. Tesla (TSLA) – Rating: 8/10 Core : AI for Full Self-Driving, robotics, Dojo HPC, possibly HPC meltdown mania illusions overshadow expansions with custom training hardware. Why 8 : They push automotive autonomy—still a huge AI frontier. If Dojo HPC becomes commercial or if Tesla’s humanoid robots scale, it’s massive. Risk : The timeline for L5 autonomy or TeslaBot is uncertain. Auto margins, EV competition, plus they’re not broad HPC providers— only for self-driving (and maybe licensed HPC in future). 4. Final Thoughts The article warns about short-term risks: over-concentration, record spending, and near-peak weighting. Indeed, “some short-term caution or trimming” is valid. However, the longer-run “Amazon moment” can happen as these 7 pivot deeper into AI, HPC meltdown mania illusions overshadow expansions, quantum, or next-gen tech. If they execute well, each can leap beyond its present role. ❝ Bottom Line : Short-term lumps are plausible, but for investors bullish on future transformations from HPC meltdown mania illusions overshadow expansions + AI + quantum, the M7 remain the dominant players well-equipped to pivot and expand into new trillion-dollar markets, much like Amazon’s once-disbelieved shift from books to the “everything store.” Goldman says AI could be a $200 billion game changer for China markets. But here’s why investors shouldn’t rush in. -MarketWatch ❝ “We estimate widespread AI adoption could boost Chinese [earnings per share] by 2.5% [per] year over the next decade. Improving growth prospects and perhaps a confidence boost could also raise the fair value of China [stocks] by 15-20%, and potentially usher in over US$200 billion of portfolio inflows,” said a team of strategists led by Kinger Lau. We pointed this out a few weeks ago, and investors should have rushed in then. Names like BABA and GDS look to be up again this morning, but are also extended…. BIDU is down a bit, I heard it’s because their CEO didn’t show up at a China tech meeting. Being that' this is China that’s a bigger deal than Jensen Huang not being at Trump’s inauguration. I asked GPT to rate the stocks impacted the most…. Final Thoughts : Best AI Infrastructure Bets : NVIDIA (NVDA) and GDS Holdings (GDS) . Best AI Platform & Software Plays : Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent (TCEHY) . Best AI-Driven E-Commerce & Cloud : Alibaba (BABA), JD.com (JD) . AI-Enhanced Gaming & Content : NetEase (NTES), Pinduoduo (PDD) . If you’re looking for pure AI exposure , NVDA and BIDU are the top picks. If you want a China AI exposure play with broader business strength , Tencent (TCEHY) and Alibaba (BABA) are strong contenders. SoundHound’s stock sinks as Nvidia sells off stake. What comes next? -MarketWatch I own SOUN so this was painful on Friday. GPT still gives it a 7/10…. SoundHound AI Opportunity Rating : 7.0 out of 10 Why : The technology is legitimate, voice-based AI is a big domain, and recent revenue wins in automotive and restaurants show multi-vertical traction. However, it remains relatively small, unprofitable, and exposed to investor hype cycles. Nvidia’s exit is likely an optics blow, but not necessarily a fundamental one. Bottom Line : SoundHound remains a speculative mid-tier AI play focusing on conversational and voice AI. The potential is meaningful, especially if it proves it can deliver robust revenue growth and avoid direct overshadowing from Big Tech voice solutions. I think this part was key…. Why Nvidia’s Exit May Not Mean “No Confidence” Portfolio Management : Nvidia’s total publicly held stake was small. Selling doesn’t necessarily reflect SoundHound’s fundamentals; it might be normal rebalancing. Partnership Over Equity : Tech companies often maintain strong commercial ties without equity positions. Looking at the chart you could argue for some support around the $10 area… I then asked for other companies engaged in voice AI that could be higher rated than SOUN, as I do think voice AI is going to be big in the future….. Conclusions & Ratings Cerence (CRNC) rating: 7.5/10 Biggest dedicated automotive voice solution provider. Already embedded in tens of millions of cars. Potential is robust if voice becomes an ever more critical user interface in vehicles, though reliant on automotive cycles. Veritone (VERI) rating: 6.5/10 Works with synthetic voice, could grow if TTS/cloning sees broad adoption. Smaller scale, less direct traction vs. bigger voice players, but has a “foot in the door” across multiple industries. SoundHound (SOUN) rating: 7.0/10 (from previous analysis) Broad voice AI focus with automotive, restaurants, consumer electronics. Partnerships continue to expand, though the stock is extremely volatile. If you need a pure “voice AI” pick that’s bigger or more embedded in high-volume products, Cerence is the leading public alternative. However, both SoundHound and Cerence remain fairly specialized—and smaller than Big Tech’s voice offerings. The voice AI domain is still a developing space, and each name can see major swings in stock performance based on new deals or broader tech sentiment. Both took a hit Friday as well. Both are sitting on some moving average support and could be buyable here as speculative plays… Quantum Computing Is Closer Than Ever. Everybody’s Too Busy to Pay Attention. -WSJ ❝ A technology that feels like it’s ‘always five years away’ may suddenly be two years away—but businesses are a little preoccupied Hmmm. First it was 30 years away, now 2. I asked GPT for the ramifications if it really is 2 years away…. Final Investment Strategy: How to Profit from Quantum Computing in 2 Years Invest in Quantum Cloud & AI Computing Early (NVDA, MSFT, IBM, GOOGL, AMZN). AI-Driven Drug Discovery (RXRX, SDGR) will be a first mover advantage. Post-Quantum Cybersecurity will be a trillion-dollar transition (HON, ARQQ). Quantum Finance (GS, JPM, NDAQ) will give early adopters market dominance. Watch for PsiQuantum IPO – It could be the next Nvidia. Final Takeaway: The Quantum Investing Window is Now 📌 If quantum computing truly arrives in 2027, we are entering the pre-inflection point of a $10+ trillion disruption. 📌 Early-stage quantum computing leaders will create the next decade’s AI, healthcare, and cybersecurity giants. 📌 Institutional investors are still focused on AI – but the real edge will come from AI + Quantum. Using AI to Scrape 13F Filings Year end 13Fs were due on Friday so there is all sorts of buzz about who’s buying and selling what, like NVDA selling SOUN (above). I don’t spend a lot of time on 13Fs because it’s a snapshot in time, 45 days old, and we run an ETF that buys stocks that money managers will be buying in the future, versus seeing what they owned in the past. That being said, you can probably find some hidden gems. I put in a simple query and had GPT look at the top buys from the 25 top hedge funds and point out any possible hidden gems. Broad query and more of a test than anything else. It gave me some names that I hadn’t heard about, nothing exciting to me, except VKTX. Viking is a name I had held last year as part of the weight loss theme and my calls went to zero. One look at the chart tells you why…… I put the chart into GPT and asked for a thesis on why I should buy it. It gave me technicals, fundamentals, and told me which funds were buying more and which were selling, it also told me what insiders were doing. Long analysis, here’s the final verdict…. Final Verdict - Is VKTX a Buy Here? ✅ Yes, but as a high-risk, high-reward play Technical indicators suggest a bottoming process Hedge funds & institutions are holding strong Fundamentals (NASH market) are incredibly bullish Upcoming catalysts could send stock soaring 🔹 Buy Zone: $28-$32 🔹 Short-Term Target: $39-$45 (next resistance levels) 🔹 Long-Term Target (if VK2809 is successful): $75-$100+ 📌 Best Strategy: Start with a small position at $30-$32 Add more if it breaks above $33 (momentum confirmation) Sell partial at $40-$45, hold remainder for long-term upside Not sure I will actually buy it again, but I will definitely be watching. The Bottom for Deere Is Here. The Stock Gets a Big Target Boost. -Barron’s DE is a core holding for me in the robotics theme. Got crushed the other day and then recovered nicely yesterday and looks poised to test the highs….. I had GPT analyze this article and rate DE from 1-10…. Rating Rationale (7.5/ • 10) Strength in Robotics Deere is arguably the leading publicly traded “agtech+robotics” player, with advanced precision agriculture solutions. The adoption curve for autonomous tractors & AI-driven farm management could be massive over a 5–10 year horizon. Near-Term Uncertainty Earnings are at or near a cyclical trough for FY25. This near-term gloom can overshadow the robotics & AI story, at least temporarily. Longer-Term Bull Case If farm incomes improve and AI-driven equipment sees widespread acceptance, Deere’s margins and growth can re-accelerate. The emerging subscription model (autonomy features as a service) can provide consistent cash flows. Given the cyclical weakness balanced with significant autonomous + AI potential, we place Deere’s “robotics & AI potential” at 7.5 out of 10 . The short-term outlook is lukewarm, but the long-term, especially in autonomous farming equipment, remains promising — potentially transforming Deere from just a cyclical machinery maker into a tech-driven robotics leader in agriculture and construction. Inflation Isn’t Going Away? Some Tips on How to Buy TIPS -WSJ This is dumb, just because they say “inflation protected” in the name, doesn’t mean they protect you from inflation. For example, last year we had high inflation. According to Bloomberg the total return of The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) was just 1.89%. By comparison, the US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF (TBIL) was 5.16%. The way to beat inflation is to earn more on your portfolio, full stop. Before you go: Here are ways I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast-Coming Thursday Wealth Management-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0