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Lithium Deep Dive: Cycle Math, Policy Tailwinds, and Who Wins Next THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Lithium Deep Dive: Cycle Math, Policy Tailwinds, and Who Wins Next Lithium Deep Dive: Cycle Math, Policy Tailwinds, and Who Wins Next Aug 28, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🧠 Lithium Deep Dive: Cycle Math, Policy Tailwinds … 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now NVDA reported earnings last night, posting a double beat and raised guidance, while at the same time excluding China sales. The stock is currently down 1.5% while the market is flat. This is because NVDAs data center revenue slightly missed. I’ve said before that NVDA is a must own IMHO but the easy money has been made, the alpha going forward will come from second and third order names. I would add to my NVDA on a real dip, but 1.5% is just a rounding error. Money is currently rotating to small caps this morning. Longer term readers know I hate small caps as a blanket asset class and think IWM (Russell • 2000) sucks, but I may eventually move some of my small cap hedges elsewhere just in case this has legs. One of the most interesting things was that Jensen mentioned that robots are moving faster than expected. Expect another deep dive from me on that area soon. Keep an eye on the Trump-Cook battle around the Fed. It seems like Trump’s main goal here is to gain control over the Fed. If he is able to successfully oust Cook he would have a chance to nominate a majority of the Fed board members. One can argue the importance of Fed independence (as I did last weekend with my Son who works at a large hedge fund) but at the end of the day it will be interesting to see how the market interprets it. If Trump is able to gain full control it is clear he intends to cut rates and jack up growth. Short term I think the market would look at that as a positive. Long term who knows. Speaking of the Fed, PCE is tomorrow. That’s their favorite inflation indicator. 🧠 Lithium Deep Dive: Cycle Math, Policy Tailwinds, and Who Wins Next We had a great conversation about lithium with Steve Hanson…… With just about everything reaching all time highs the lithium stocks aren’t even close. Yet it’s a necessary mineral and it looks like we are making a commitment to mine more of it here and bring processing here. One of the more interesting, and frightening, things I have seen as we do this podcast, is how much China is ahead of us on so many important areas. We have talked about rare earths where China dominates across the board, and drones where we are behind. Same deal with lithium. I wrote about lithium a while back and have taken profits in ALB and SQM, I sill hold the ALB preferred…… One thing I asked Steve about was lithium royalty companies. There are a few royalty companies in gold mining and oil mining and I think investing in them has advantages over buying the miners. Looks like the only lithium one is traded in Canada at the moment, but something to keep an eye on as we expand mining in the US. Executive takeaways We’re late in a down-cycle : 2024–H1’25 brought a violent price reset (≈−70% to −90% from 2022 peaks, depending on product). Supply kept growing while EV restocking paused; prices then stabilized in early summer with spot wobble since. Fundamentals are still growth-positive : EVs + stationary storage drive ~90% of lithium demand by 2030 in IEA scenarios; supply remains concentrated and geopolitically exposed. Policy is the catalyst : IRA tax credits ( §45X ) subsidize U.S. refining & recycling ; FEOC rules tighten eligibility for EV credits in 2025 , forcing supply chains out of Chinese control—especially at the refining step. Expect premium pricing for non-FEOC chemicals. Positioning : Own scale, low-cost, policy-aligned producers; add selective U.S. developers with project finance locked (or near-locked). Avoid leveraged, high-cost swing producers until the up-cycle is clearer. Where the market stands (Q3’ • 25) Supply & demand. Global mine output (lithium content) rose ~18% in 2024 to ~240 kt Li , while consumption rose ~29% to ~220 kt Li ; prices fell as inventories normalized and new supply landed. USGS also reports sharp spot declines across carbonate/hydroxide/spodumene through 2024. Price action (’25 YTD) : Battery-grade carbonate started ~US$10.5k/t, dipped to ~US$8.3k in late June, then stabilized; China futures lately hovered ~¥78,720/t (~US$11k). Expect choppy sideways until closures/delays bite. Demand mix : EVs + storage are the story— >90% of demand by 2030 . Chemistry mix matters: LFP’s share supports carbonate demand; U.S./EU premium NMC keeps hydroxide relevant. China still dominates LFP midstream. Concentration & risk. Mining is highly concentrated (top-3 nations ~85–90% of supply); China controls ~60–70% of lithium refining , with top-three refiners ≈85–100% share in IEA tables. China also expanded export curbs on EV-battery tech in July 2025. Translation: midstream risk is geopolitical, not just geological. l Policy mechanics that change the game §45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit : ~10% of eligible production costs for “applicable critical minerals” (incl. refined Li), plus separate per-kWh credits for cells/modules. This directly improves U.S. refining/recycling margins. Clean Vehicle Credit (30D) + FEOC : Starting 2025 , vehicles lose the $7,500 credit if critical minerals are produced by a foreign entity of concern . This pulls OEMs toward U.S./FTA-sourced and U.S.-refined lithium chemicals. Who wins now (and why) A) Integrated, low-cost, policy-aligned producers (Core holdings) SQM (SQM) – Chile brine scale + Codelco JV secures Atacama through 2060 ; strategic leverage to carbonate and Chile’s policy framework. Albemarle (ALB) – Global scale across brine/hard-rock + downstream chemicals; pruning capex during the trough keeps balance sheet intact into up-cycle. (Company has paused some expansions amid low prices but remains a volume-through-cycle leader.) Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) – Livent + Allkem merger created a diversified chemicals leader across Argentina/Australia/North America; synergy + optionality into the recovery. Pilbara Minerals ( PLS.AX / PILBF) – Lowest-quartile hard-rock with spot auction transparency; cost cuts + resource upgrade; positioned for turn in ’26 per mgmt. Sigma Lithium (SGML) – Brazil growth story; doubling concentrate capacity to ~520 kt in 2025 keeps unit costs competitive. Why these? They either set marginal prices (scale) or survive them (cost). In a tight-capital regime, survivors capture the upside when deferred supply meets rebounding demand. B) U.S. supply chain beneficiaries (Refining & “IRA-proof” molecules) Lithium Americas (LAC) – Thacker Pass closed $2.26B DOE LPO financing (Oct ’24); integrated U.S. carbonate starts with Phase 1 targeted at ~40 kt/y , squarely in EV-credit-compliant molecules. Ioneer (IONR) – $996M DOE loan closed Jan ’25 for Rhyolite Ridge (Li-B). Expected ~22 kt/y carbonate + boron by late decade; Ford offtake linkage. Standard Lithium (SLI) – Smackover DLE in AR; selected for up to $225M DOE award negotiation (Sept ’24). If it lines up long-term power and offtake, §45X can be meaningful. Controlled Thermal Resources (private) – Salton Sea geothermal-Li with GM supply MOU; permits/financing still the gating items per California filings. If delivered, it’s IRA-gold: U.S. extraction + refining in one site. Recycling (private but strategically important) – Redwood Materials (NV/SC) scaling cathode/anode; §45X plus USGS-noted federal recycling funds tighten the domestic loop and lessen FEOC exposure over time. Why these? §45X + FEOC turns U.S. refined lithium into a structurally premium product for OEMs that need credits. Projects with LPO-style financing and permitting progress are the shortlist. If the U.S. builds more refining, who else wins? Spodumene exporters from FTA partners who can ship to U.S. converters (Australia/Canada): PLS, MIN.AX , Patriot Battery Metals (for upstream feed). Australia sent ~98% of spodumene to China in ’22–’23 ; U.S. capacity changes that routing over time. EPC & process kit for conversion/DLE (listed outside the lithium complex): process licensors, crystallizers, filtration/membrane, calcination, and acid/alkali suppliers—beneficiaries of a multi-year U.S. conversion build-out (Metso, Andritz, Alfa Laval, Koch Separation Solutions, Veolia). (Sector view; specific margins project-dependent.) Battery makers with U.S. fabs : qualifying cathode makers benefit as U.S. lithium chemicals remove FEOC risk from their BOMs and preserve 30D eligibility. What could bend the curve (scenarios you should trade against) Base Case (our bias) : Prices chop sideways into 2026 as closures/delays and slower capex digest the glut; demand resumes trendline (EV + storage). Winners : scale/low-cost producers; U.S. LPO-backed developers rerate on derisking. Bull Case : Faster EV inflection + policy-pull (FEOC bite), and any supply shock (Argentina ramp slips, DLE disappoints) tightens hydroxide/carbonate —cycle upturn starts earlier/louder. Torque : ALB/SQM/ALTM; high-beta developers (LAC/IONR/SLI). Bear Case : Prolonged EV softness, sodium-ion takes more of the low-end, China keeps exporting chemicals despite FEOC leakage. Defense : lowest-cost hard-rock (PLS), diversified chemicals (ALB/ALTM). (Note: FEOC tightening in 2025 raises the bar for this bear case in U.S./EU demand.) Risks (and how to underwrite them) Policy execution risk : FEOC definitions & enforcement tighten over 2025; supply chains must certify compliance. Track Treasury/IRS updates and deal clauses. Project finance & timing : Piedmont (PLL) pausing U.S. loan pursuit in 2024 is a reminder—projects need price support or subsidized capital to move. Prefer names with closed LPO deals. Geopolitics : Chile policy is stabilizing via the SQM–Codelco framework through 2060, but politics can still swing terms; China’s new export curbs add tail risk to midstream technology access. Portfolio map Core (quality/cycle-safe) : ALB, SQM, ALTM, PLS.AX/PILBF Growth/Policy torque (U.S.-aligned) : LAC, IONR, SLI (size to risk; stagger on milestones/FID) Satellite (selective) : SGML (Brazil execution, cost curve looks good into expansion) Avoid/late-cycle adds : high-cost swing producers without balance sheet or policy tailwinds. Lithium is still a structural growth commodity stuck in a cyclical hangover; policy is forcing the midstream onshore , so own scale + cost leadership now and optionality on U.S. refining where financing and permits are real—not aspirational. 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is SBI Holdings, it’s a Japanese company but the ADRs trade under SBHGF….. Why SBI Holdings? Massive XRP holdings : According to media, SBI has invested around ¥1.6 trillion (~$10 billion) in XRP (Ripple) —a digital asset—while the company's own market capitalization is around ¥1.2 trillion (<$12 billion) . That implies their digital-asset stake alone exceeds the company’s enterprise value. ( turn0news24 , Reuters) Underrecognized blockchain asset : This huge position in XRP is rarely priced in by investors—creating exactly the “multi-billion-dollar asset hiding inside a blue-chip company” scenario that Porter describes. Activist pressure is already building : Asset managers like GAM are publicly urging SBI to unlock value by treating XRP more deliberately—publishing transparent valuations, and potentially even leveraging that asset in buybacks. ( turn0news24 ) 📬 --- In Case You Missed It We finally filed for our Income Blast options series yesterday….. — # (# ) The key differentiator is we use put spreads instead of call spreads to generate the income. This means that upside is not limited. I implied this may be coming when we talked to Marcos the other day… FYI, Marcos doesn’t own covered call ETFs…. — # (# ) 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0