Fed Put Kaput인가요?

Is the Fed Put Kaput? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Is the Fed Put Kaput? Is the Fed Put Kaput? The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle Apr 17, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: Powell says no Fed put Trump’s not happy about it Gold, Bitcoin, and commodities look like the place to be and more…….. Episode 9 of the Rebel Finance Podcast is out, we talked with Frances Stacy about the crazy day in the markets and what investors should be doing now…. Announcements Our Next Webinar Trump’s Plan For the Economy and How It Impacts Your Investments Thursday April 24, 2-3pm EST Register Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf News & Noise 🧠 News: — # (# ) Powell Warns of ‘Challenging Scenario’ for Fed in Cushioning Trade-War Fallout www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/powell-warns-of-challenging-scenario-for-fed-in-cushioning-trade-war-fallout-81d17965?mod=panda_wsj_author_alert — # (# ) What technologies are those? — # (# ) Carney Capitulates: Canada Waives Retaliatory Tariffs On US-Made Cars And Trucks | ZeroHedge ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero www.zerohedge.com/markets/carney-capitulates-canada-waives-retaliatory-tariffs-us-made-cars-and-trucks ❌ Noise: What Wall Street Is Saying Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG…. ❝ Yesterday the SPX traded up towards 5450, and we felt the risk/reward was poor given the 5500-5600 upside vs. 5k-5100 downside. While the SPX is now closer to 5100 than 5500, downside momentum remains in place making it tricky to bottom fish. It's also important to remember that even if the ~5k level proves to be a durable bottom, we can expect several more weeks of choppy action in this range. Recall the 2011 analog where SPX made a low of ~1100 on 8/9/11. It retested the low 1100s six more time before putting in a final low in early October. The good news is there is dispersion going on, and when looking at relative performance we can start to see some meaningful differences below the surface providing opportunity on the stock level — # (# ) Mohit Kumar, Jefferies….. ❝ However, our view remains that tariffs are a growth story than an inflation story. The spike in inflation is likely to be temporary and will fade away in subsequent years, mostly because we measure inflation on an YoY basis. But tariffs will lower growth, both for the US and its trading partners. As the impact of tariffs become clearer, we do see possibly one additional cut from both the Fed and the ECB relative to our views in March. We still remain in the camp that the next cut from the Fed will come in June and we could get 2/3 cuts this year depending on the macro outlook. Jefferies… ❝ GEV Vernova Inc| BUY We maintain our Buy rating and raise PT to $418/sh (from $413 prior) as we roll over our estimates to FY'28 from '26, seeing upside to mgmt's LT guidance on the back of strong Power and Electrification demand and opex leverage driving EBITDA margin. For 1Q25, see revenue/EBITDA +20/+10 bps above street. In the current environment, see limited tariff exposure to GEV (<5% per mgmt). RPO of $119bn (3.4x LTM rev) offers ample LT cushion to top line Is The Fed Put Kaput? — # (# ) — # (# ) Powell spoke yesterday and he was hawkish, walking back some of the dovish comments that Weller gave (perhaps positioning for a job?). There have been two things that bulls have been clinging too as possibilities, one is some sort of thawing in the trade war, the other was the possibility of either a pre-emptive Fed cut, or more than expected easing. Powell’s statements appeared to kick that leg out. — # (# ) If the Fed is now out……. — # (# ) Even though I have been adding equity exposure I was still up yesterday as my hedges expand as volatility expands. I did cut equity exposure as a lot of the undercut and rally patterns I have gotten into failed yesterday. I’m now back to being more net short than I want to be, but caution is warranted and I can add back quickly when the time comes. If this green holds then I will probably add some exposure back today. While I do think the bottom is in (I could be very wrong about this however) I don’t think we get a V shaped recovery like we did during Covid. If you are a trader then you can trade this market from the long and short side. If you are an investor I would continue to stay out. More and more I am thinking the areas you want to be in are hard assets and Bitcoin. Gold and the miners have been the strength and is the most crowded trade in the market. I wouldn’t chase, but I would buy on dips. Bitcoin has held up, it’s a risk on asset but it should also be immune from tariffs and declining earnings (There’s a reason I threw an ad for BEGS in here today)….. Yesterday we also saw relative strength in other commodity areas-aluminum, copper, natural gas, oil drillers, and uranium. I had Chat GPT take a deeper dive on this…. Why Gold, Bitcoin, and Commodities Are the Places to Be Now 🎯 Summary Thesis: Gold and Bitcoin are no longer just “alternative” assets—they are now core macro hedges . The era of soft money, permanent deficits, and broken fiat discipline is feeding the early stages of a commodity supercycle . Precious metals and crypto are just the beginning. A broader move into energy, industrial metals, and hard asset producers is gaining steam. This is not a rotation—it’s a regime shift. 🧠 Key Drivers 🧯 1. The Fiat Crisis U.S. debt > $36T, annual deficit > $1.6T Real yields are negative again; currency credibility is cracking Central banks are re-arming stimulus tools despite persistent inflation 🧨 2. Geopolitical Fragmentation Global supply chains are breaking and being re-nationalized Resource nationalism is rising—countries are hoarding commodities, not exporting them ⚙️ 3. AI Infrastructure Boom Massive energy needs (hyperscale data centers) New demand for copper, silver, uranium, natural gas AI = physical infrastructure = material demand explosion 🛠 4. Structural Underinvestment Decade of ESG and QE led to capex starvation in oil, gas, mining Now demand is surging just as supply is rigid 🏆 Top Winners (Ranked 1–10 on Forward Asymmetry) Ticker Theme Score Why GDX / GDXJ Gold Miners 9.5 Leverage to rising gold with years of underinvestment. SLV / PAAS / AG / MAG Silver 9.0 Dual monetary + industrial demand. Inventory collapse is real. BTC / MSTR / RIOT / MARA Bitcoin 8.5 Decoupling from equities. Backstopping fiscal chaos. CCJ / URA / NXE / BWXT Uranium 8.5 Nuclear revival + AI power needs + tightening supply. EQT / AR / WMB / LNG Natural Gas 8.0 AI baseload + Europe LNG + ESG pivot to cleaner fossil. FCX / SCCO / CPER / TECK Copper 8.0 EVs, AI, grid, China stimulus. Demand outpacing supply. PLTM / PALL / SBSW Platinum Group Metals 7.5 Mine underinvestment, demand from clean tech and jewelry. LIT / ALB / SQM / MP Lithium/Rare Earths 7.0 Still early in EV + AI infrastructure cycle. Watch volatility. BITO / GBTC / IBIT Crypto ETFs 7.0 Safer exposure for tradfi portfolios. Liquidity sponge. BABA / JD / Tencent China Big Tech 4.0 May benefit from internal demand shifts, but geopolitical risk remains very high. ❌ The Likely Losers 1. 60/40 Portfolios Bonds are not hedges in this regime. Equities are capped by margins + deglobalization. Real returns are being eroded by monetary debasement. 2. Consumer Staples / Utilities Real yield-sensitive. Can’t compete with gold, bitcoin, or even copper on narrative. 3. Import-Heavy Manufacturers Tariffs + supply shocks = margin squeeze Particularly vulnerable: low-cost Chinese exporters, U.S. retailers with high Asian dependence 🌎 Regional Winners U.S. AI Infrastructure Builders Supermicro (SMCI), Nvidia (domestic capex), CoreWeave, Palantir Latin America Strategic realignment + resource abundance Key picks: VALE, PBR, SQM, GGB, EWZ ETF Argentina: wildcard upside under Milei 🔮 Strategic Implications Hold gold and gold miners aggressively into strength; trim tactically on spikes, rebuy dips. Stay long Bitcoin (direct or via miners), especially with the post-halving supply dynamics. Lean into copper and uranium for longer duration positioning (2025–2027 story). Natural gas is a stealth winner in the AI boom—especially for U.S.-based providers. Use dips in commodity names to rotate out of traditional duration-sensitive equity exposure . ⚠️ What Could Derail the Thesis? A global depression triggered by delayed Fed cuts + liquidity crunch Sudden deflation from a credit event (commercial real estate, banking crisis) Policy overcorrection: a Volcker-style inflation hammer Regulatory crackdowns on crypto/miners (less likely under Trump) 🧭 Final Take: The Age of Real Things ❝ “When fiat trust breaks, people go back to what’s real.” Precious metals, Bitcoin, and commodities are not just trending—they are becoming the default shelter in a world of unanchored policy. The new supercycle is built on energy, scarcity, and a rejection of financial engineering. It’s not a trade. It’s a new regime. Before you go: Here are ways I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. 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