DeepSeek의 과대광고는 이미 사라지고 있나요?

Is the DeepSeek Hype Already Fading? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Is the DeepSeek Hype Already Fading? Is the DeepSeek Hype Already Fading? The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle Apr 25, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: Louis Navellier interview Market’s think Trump will capitulate GOOGL and the Mag 7 Is the DeepSeek Hype Already Fading? and more…….. Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf News & Noise 🧠 News: Great conversation with Louis, he seems to be in all the same themes we are talking about. Longer term perspective than we have so made for a great conversation…. Trump asserts trade talks with China are underway after Beijing denies any ongoing negotiations The statement followed China's denial of any talks with the U.S. and calls for abolishing 'unilateral' tariff measures for resolving trade issues. www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/china-says-no-talks-with-the-us-on-trade-calls-for-canceling-unilateral-tariffs.html Supply Shortages Loom as U.S. Shipments from China Plummet www.barrons.com/articles/tariffs-shortages-china-shipping-c159487f?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 — # (# ) This Stock Could Win as RFK Jr. Moves to Ban Synthetic Dyes www.barrons.com/articles/sensient-stock-rfk-food-dye-b8294594?mod=hp_SP_C_3_2 ❌ Noise: A cruel summer looms, but here’s why JPMorgan still expects a higher S&P 500 finish this year The mood will improve later in 2025 as tariff angst eases, and focus turns to tax cuts and deregulation www.marketwatch.com/story/a-cruel-summer-looms-but-heres-why-jpmorgan-still-expects-a-higher-s-p-500-finish-this-year-f5ced3a1?mod=home_lead How Much Have Stocks Rebounded? Are We Still In a Bear Market? www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-stock-market-trade-war-04-25-2025/card/how-much-have-stocks-rebounded-are-we-still-in-a-bear-market--RudRZEiRzTbnYHxupaRn?mod=lctimeline_finance What Wall Street Is Saying Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading….. ❝ The market has embraced the narrative that President Trump is succumbing to market pressure and will pursue the process of closet capitulation. That is the process of cutting any deals possible, declaring victory, and moving on. Today was important because it is the first trading day the S&P 500 surpassed the Reciprocal Reversal peak registered on April 9 th . There are some other noteworthy observations regarding this week’s optimism. The S&P 500 is up 3.8% on the week and 7.5% from Monday’s low. Most impressively, the S&P 500 is only down 2.26% in the month of April and 3.28% since the President announced the Liberation Day tariffs. The S&P 500 is 1.6% higher than where it settled Tuesday of last week when Nvidia preannounced its $5.5 billion charge due to the restrictions on exporting H20 AI chips to China. — # (# ) JP Morgan…… ❝ Facts continue to change — there is indication that the “detox period” may be over and the latest messaging from the Trump Administration seems to be shifting from tariffs to tax cuts and deregulation. However, the damage to the business cycle still remains unclear Mohit Kumar, Jefferies…… ❝ Trump has dialed down the trade rhetoric and his comments suggest that he wants a trade deal done with the major trading partners. Our view remains that Trump will score easy wins and do deals with India, UK, Japan and S Korea. However, trade deals with the EU and China will be trickier. GOOGL and the Mag 7 GOOGL was the first Mag 7 name to report earnings last night and it reported a beat… ❝ Yesterday, GOOGL reported 1Q results beating consensus expectations overall (sales surprise: 1.2%; earnings surprise: +39.6%). CapEx of $17.2B came in slightly higher than consensus $16.7B (but below UBSe $17.8B) ( link ). 33.9% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported so far. Next week will see the largest number of S&P 500 companies reporting (181 names, 41.3% Mcap). 1Q expectations are for revenues to grow 4.1% and EPS by 6.8%. Here’s the entire Mag 7 schedule…. META – 1Q25E: 12.3%; 1Q25A: Wednesday 04/30 MSFT – 1Q25E: 9.6%; 1Q25A: Wednesday 04/30 AAPL – 1Q25E: 5.7%; 1Q25A: Thursday 05/01 AMZN – 1Q25E: 38.6%; 1Q25A: Thursday 05/01 NVDA – 1Q25E: 44.6%; 1Q25A: Wednesday 05/28 Someone asked me on yesterday’s webinar if I though the Mag 7 would eventually lead us out of this correction. Great question, but nuanced a bit. Structurally these stocks are such a big part of the SPY and QQQ that any money that the majority of inflows go to them. Also, if you ask Chat GPT for potential winners across the AI related areas you get one or more of these names. On the other hand, they are most exposed to tariffs. They could lead us out, but you need to have some other stuff just in case. My equity strategy has been to slowly add back exposure, but do it broadly across (no particular order)….. Gold and silver miners Crypto related names Mid cap defense AI biotech AI power generation China Industrial metals TLT AI infrastructure And Mag 7. I think having the miners, the crypto, and TLT give a measure of protection here. You also need to have real hedges though. Yesterday I wrote about low volatility ETFs and how I thought they were a trade, not an investment. This came out of JP Morgan last night….. ❝ Low Vol Crowding is now at 95%tile and Low Vol Aristocrats have outperformed the market by ~15% in the last two months Baidu founder highlights ‘shrinking’ demand for DeepSeek’s text-based AI Search group’s chief makes rare criticism of China’s generative artificial intelligence darling www.ft.com/content/c462fbd1-1672-4d8f-bd91-c3aa185d2418 This caught my eye this morning as I thought that the DeepSeek announcement was extremely important. Not because what they were saying was true, but because it got investors asking uncomfortable questions about capex and US dominance in AI. Interestingly, Louis Navellier had something to say about this in the podcast (above). He thinks this was market manipulation by the hedge fund that runs DeepSeek. I had GPT analyze this article and it’s implications…… Is the DeepSeek Hype Already Fading? 🚨 Baidu Fires a Shot at DeepSeek — What It Means for the AI Race Baidu founder Robin Li just did something rare in the Chinese AI ecosystem: he publicly criticized DeepSeek , the breakout generative AI darling of early 2025. At Baidu's developer conference in Wuhan, Li stated that "the market for text models is shrinking" and framed DeepSeek’s R1 model as slow, hallucination-prone, and narrow in capability. That may be true—or it may be strategic messaging to position Baidu’s new multimodal models (Ernie 4.5 Turbo, X1 Turbo) as superior alternatives. Either way, the implications are big: DeepSeek may have catalyzed the AI boom in China, but its dominance could already be under threat. And yes, this moment has direct implications for U.S. leadership in AI . 📉 Your Concern Is Valid: DeepSeek Disrupted the AI Narrative Back in January, DeepSeek’s R1 shocked the system. It proved that China didn’t need Nvidia’s A100s to train a frontier model, and it shook the belief that scale + capex = inevitable AI leadership . Your thesis was this: if DeepSeek makes the market believe LLM supremacy doesn’t require multi-billion-dollar capex (or U.S. chips), it undermines the perceived U.S. AI lead and reduces the moat around companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and even Nvidia . Today, Baidu's pivot — and public diss — may validate your concern: If R1-like models are now "just okay" and Baidu's multimodal agents are better, the bar is moving. If China's top companies feel confident building full-stack models with Chinese hardware (Kunlun chips), the West loses the compute leverage advantage. But here's the kicker: DeepSeek's shakeup was real , and the perception that China can close the gap on AI autonomy remains a geopolitical and commercial threat. 🏛 Winners & Losers from This Update (Ranked 1– • 10) 🏆 Top Winners Rank Company Score Why It Wins 1 Baidu (9888.HK) 9.5 Reclaims relevance with multimodal, open-source agents + 30,000-chip AI compute cluster. Stocks up 4%. 2 Alibaba (9988.HK) 8.5 Its open-source Quark AI agent benefits as Baidu normalizes the agent model race. 3 SMIC / Huawei Cloud / Kunlun 8.0 Huawei's Kunlun chips gain strategic edge. Baidu confirms 30k chip cluster with no compute bottleneck. 4 Chinese Cloud Players 7.5 Tencent, ByteDance, iFlyTek all gain from rapid multimodal agent commoditization. 5 Samsung (005930.KQ) 7.0 Major Kunlun chip supplier (though U.S. export curbs are a risk). Still critical for logic stack. ❌ Top Losers Company Score Why It Loses DeepSeek 8.5 Loses narrative dominance. Criticized as narrow, costly, and hallucination-prone. Risk of being leapfrogged. Nvidia (NVDA) 7.5 Baidu’s ability to run competitive AI on Kunlun shows China can move beyond CUDA + A100. Anthropic / OpenAI 6.5 If Chinese agents go global and reach feature parity, premium U.S. pricing models lose edge. Legacy U.S. software 6.0 The global agentic software shift is now moving faster in China than the U.S. (Palantir excluded). Investors who thought AI was U.S.-only 9.0 The AI Cold War is on. Bet only on U.S. dominance and you risk missing the eastward pivot. 🤝 Strategic Takeaways for --- H.E.A.T. Readers 1. DeepSeek created the inflection, but Baidu may be accelerating the curve. R1 changed sentiment. Now Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent are racing to define the new agentic standard. The moat around Western frontier AI looks smaller every day. 2. This will not slow the commoditization of capex-light models. Even if DeepSeek fades, the idea that you don’t need a $500M cluster to build a great AI is out there now. That will suppress hype premiums in the U.S. and challenge Nvidia’s pricing power. 3. Expect China’s agentic models to go global fast. Open-source + multimodal = global reach, especially in emerging markets. U.S. software firms relying on SaaS subscriptions are vulnerable. 🔋 Portfolio Implications 🔺 Stay Long Palantir (PLTR) : U.S. moat in agentic AI + secure data + gov. support SMCI, TSM : Beneficiaries of domestic AI infra buildouts AI-first biotech : RXRX, ABSI, TEM — agents in drug discovery will win 🔽 Be Cautious NVDA : Still dominant but market narrative is weakening OpenAI/Anthropic-adjacent : API commoditization risk from open-source agents Legacy SaaS : Especially those with no agentic roadmap (SAP, ORCL, CRM-lite clones) ❝ Bottom line: This is not the end of DeepSeek. It’s the start of a deeper realignment. China is learning fast, open-sourcing faster, and out-executing on agents and hardware. Get ready for an AI landscape that’s more fragmented, more competitive, and no longer as dollar-dominated. Before you go: Here are ways I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Wealth Management-Coming Soon Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0