축하해주신 분들을 위한 행복한 FOMC 데이

Happy FOMC Day to Those Who Celebrate THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Happy FOMC Day to Those Who Celebrate Happy FOMC Day to Those Who Celebrate Daily 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Your Financial GPS Matthew Tuttle Jun 18, 2025 Subscribe now Share I am traveling Thursday so may not have time to get a newsletter out. Either way back on Friday In Today’s Issue: Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF Our Next Webinar— - Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Rare Earths Happy FOMC Day to Those Who Celebrate Goldman Ditches Ban on SPACs as Blank-Check Firms Stage Comeback Lilly Buys Verve: The Gene-Editing Gold Rush Begins Steel, Wires, and Winners Gridlock Meets Gridscale and more…….. Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Thu, Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT - Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside - How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does. - My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street To register: register.gotowebinar.com/register/8214490301707453020 Talking Rare Earth on the Podcast: Maybe an ETF idea in here down the road. Happy FOMC Day to Those Who Celebrate — # (# ) — # (# ) The market sold off yesterday on speculation we may be entering the war. This morning it’s recouped about half those losses. — # (# ) You can argue whether we should be involved in the war at all but I’m not sure why that would be bearish for the market. There was this yesterday, leaving some people to speculate that Iran had a nuke, but so far nothing…. — # (# ) FOMC could be big today, one way or the other. We are extended and it’s hard to believe we break through all time highs easily barring some surprise from Powell. I have not been increasing my hedges but I have been selling a lot more cash secured puts for equity exposure rather than buying calls. Upside isn’t as much, but if the market flatlines for a while or goes down a little calls will get crushed but you can still make money selling puts. 🚨 HEAT Formula Playbook: Asymmetry Goldman Ditches Ban on SPACs as Blank-Check Firms Stage Comeback www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-17/goldman-ditches-ban-on-spacs-as-blank-check-firms-stage-comeback ❝ The investment bank is once again open to underwriting new deals for special-purpose acquisition companies, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The firm will evaluate potential deals on a case-by-case basis and may limit the sponsors it works with, one of the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private matters. — # (# ) 🚨 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes 🧬 Lilly Buys Verve: The Gene-Editing Gold Rush Begins Eli Lilly's $1.3 billion acquisition of Verve Therapeutics (VERV)—makers of a PCSK9 base-editing therapy targeting atherosclerosis—marks a seismic shift. The deal not only validates the "one-shot" gene-editing business model but also signals a coming wave of Big Pharma acquisitions in the space . 🧭 Why This Could Spark a Gene-Editing M&A Boom One-time cures confirm commercial scale : Verve’s VERVE‑102 Phase 1b trial showed a ~59% LDL reduction with no safety flags—a paradigm-defining result . Cost structure upside : One-time interventions lock in billions in lifetime value. Regulatory streamlining : FDA’s openness to plausible-mechanism pathways favors gene-editing assets . Big Pharma pipeline gap : Companies like Lilly and Merck can't afford to miss out on durable gene-editing platforms. 📊 Public Gene-Editing Names & Potential Ratings Here’s a curated list of gene-editing plays—segmented by technology—with a 1–10 “acquisition and commercial upside” rank: 🧠 Base Editing & CRISPR (in Vivo) Ticker Company Focus Upside Rating CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics Approved exa-cel; pipeline in sickle-cell, porphyrias 8/10 en.wikipedia.org NTLA Intellia Therapeutics In vivo Cas9 for ATTR amyloidosis + HAE 8/10 EDIT Editas Medicine Early base/prime editing in genetic diseases 6/10 BEAM Beam Therapeutics Precision base editing, rare diseases 7/10 🧬 Broad Gene-Editing Platforms Ticker Company Focus Upside Rating SGMO Sangamo Therapeutics Zinc-finger tech in hemophilia & MPS 6/10 en.wikipedia.org + 2securities.io + 2en.wikipedia.org +2 PGEN Precigen (ex-Intrexon) Synthetic biology, CAR-T 5/10 HZD Horizon Discovery CRISPR cell-line tools (subsidiary sold) 4/10 🧪 Adjacent Platforms Ticker Company Focus Upside Rating SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics Gene therapy (DMD), not editing but relevant 7/10 Acrp Avidity Biosciences Oligonucleotide-mediated protein control 6/10 📈 Big Pharma Knock-Out Potential: Top Targets CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP, 8/ • 10) – With exa-cel approved and cardiovascular programs underway, CRSP is in line for a Lilly/Merck-style buyout. Intellia (NTLA, 8/ • 10) – In vivo editing is rare and rich—clinical success would trigger a scramble. Beam (BEAM, 7/ • 10) – Cutting-edge prime editing leaves it ripe for tech-heavy acquirers. Sangamo (SGMO, 6/ • 10) – Its zinc-finger platform and Pfizer ties could drive deal flow. 🧠 Final Take Big Pharma has taken notice: Lilly stepping up suggests acquisition windows are open. Clinical validation (base or CRISPR editing with clean safety) is the trigger for paid valuations. Regulatory catalysts like accelerated pathways are lowering barriers. ✅ Tactical Strategy Primary Positions : CRSP, NTLA, BEAM Watch List : SGMO, PGEN Adjacent Exposure : SRPT, AVIDITY (SRPT got a boost on regulator momentum) Milestone Events : Look for mid-stage data, FDA filings, and Big Pharma collaborations. This is a high-risk, high-reward arena where clinical proof = acquisition premium . If you're long gene editing, you're betting Lilly's move isn’t an exception but the start of a mainstream adoption wave. 🚨 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes 🔧 “Steel, Wires, and Winners”: Why Specialty E&C Might Be the Ultimate Anti-Tech Trade—and Who’s Poised to Dominate Jefferies came out with a research report positive on Specialty Engineering and Construction. I had GPT take a deep dive to sort out some potential winners and losers…… 🧠 Summary of the Jefferies Thesis: Jefferies is making a high-conviction, fundamentally grounded call: Specialty Engineering & Construction (E&C) firms are undervalued relative to their growth trajectory —even after YTD outperformance. Despite their rerating, Jefferies sees: Double-digit cash flow & EPS CAGRs through 2026 Compelling upside from multi-decade infrastructure, electrification, and energy build-outs A skilled labor bottleneck that E&C leaders can now price into contracts Sector shift from discount to premium valuation seen as justified and sustainable And their top pick? MasTec (MTZ) . 🔍 Why This Matters This is not your typical “boring industrials” play. What Jefferies is pointing to is a secular infrastructure and energy renaissance —driven by: Grid modernization (NEE, SO, DUK spend ramping) High-voltage transmission (765kV builds) Gas midstream re-acceleration (pipeline capex returning) Renewables navigating policy turbulence, but likely to consolidate around quality operators This sets up a classic "picks and shovels" theme. The macro mess (Fed policy, energy security, political shifts) is creating chaos for OEMs and asset owners. But the builders? They just invoice every hour of labor. 💥 Sector Highlights from Jefferies YTD avg return: +12.1% , well above S&P (+2.6%) and Industrials (+8.7%) EPS CAGR (2024–26): +35.8% vs S&P +11.5% EBITDA CAGR (2024–26): +16.2% vs S&P/Industrials +9.6% Valuation: 22.3x FY2 P/E , a 2.3x premium to S&P 500 , which was historically a 2.1x discount —and Jefferies sees that reversal as justified 🏆 Winners 🥇 MasTec (MTZ) ❝ Jefferies' top pick due to strong contract language, labor leverage, and backlog growth. Theme Fit: Grid buildout, gas midstream, and clean energy services. Upside Trigger: Execution visibility + labor-cost-plus contract wins. 🥇 Quanta Services (PWR) ❝ The sector’s 800-lb gorilla (nearly 2/3 of total sector market cap). Theme Fit: Electrification, utility spend, 765kV backbone, NEE exposure. Upside Trigger: Renewable resurgence + IRA project acceleration. 🥇 Primoris Services (PRIM) ❝ Undervalued relative to backlog momentum and gas infrastructure wins. Theme Fit: Midstream pipeline renaissance, LNG export logistics. Upside Trigger: Inflation Reduction Act stability + contract flow-through margin lift. 🔻 Losers (or At-Risk) ⚠️ Second-tier E&C firms with weak backlogs ❝ In a tighter labor market, scale wins . Companies without: Strong customer relationships Flexible labor pipelines Fixed-price exposure discipline will lose margin, confidence, and backlog. ⚠️ Overleveraged utilities If spending gets delayed (e.g., if the IRA is gutted or restructured ), then E&C customer capex plans slow. Watchlist for pressure: AEP, EIX, ED—utilities with higher leverage and regulatory risk. 🔮 The Macro Overlay 👷 Skilled Labor = Margin Gold Labor is the new scarce commodity. Specialty E&C firms that own pipelines of electricians, welders, and project managers can now price like monopolists in certain verticals. 🔌 Infrastructure = Secular Demand Between grid reform, gas transmission upgrades, AI datacenter power needs, and energy security reshoring, you can’t avoid E&C exposure if you want to bet on real asset flow. 📊 Multiple Expansion = Justified Jefferies’ big call is that the valuation rerating is not over . In fact, if EPS growth persists and capex flows continue, the sector deserves a permanent premium to the S&P—not just a cyclical one. 🧠 Final Take: You’ve got: A high-growth, real asset theme Policy tailwinds (IRA, permitting reform, utility incentives) Labor-driven pricing power Superior EPS compounding to tech—and less headline risk In short: this is the anti-SaaS growth story , and Wall Street is just starting to wake up to it. 📌 Tactical Ideas Long MTZ / PWR as core compounders Monitor PRIM as a mid-cap breakout with midstream leverage Short weak backlog names if rate shocks hit capex plans Consider pairing E&C exposure with short overleveraged utilities or REITs that rely on legacy grid power or have poor IRR profiles on electrification 🚨 HEAT Formula Playbook: Themes ⚡️ “Gridlock Meets Gridscale” Why the Senate’s IRA Revisions Are a Win for Utility-Scale Power—and a Gut Punch to Residential Solar Jefferies came out with another report yesterday, this one on changes to the IRA, I had GPT take a deep dive here…… 🧠 The Core Takeaway Jefferies views the Senate’s new version of the IRA rollback as a “Goldilocks outcome” —not too hot, not too cold—for the utility-scale energy sector. The revisions: Extend key solar and storage tax credits Introduce phase-outs that are manageable Loosen restrictions on domestic content and foreign entity sourcing But largely abandon residential solar hopes This is a bifurcated outcome: utility-scale developers win , storage wins big , but residential names are left in the dark . 📊 Key Legislative Shifts & Impacts Provision Summary Winners Losers 48E / 45Y Reinstated Phase-Out Safe harbor at 60% ('26), 20% ('27), 0% ('28); no sunset for geothermal/storage NEE, PWR, MTZ, FLNC — Storage Fully Unphased No expiration, massive tailwind through 2033 NEE , grid battery installers — FEOC Thresholds Introduced Foreign Entity language softened; now % of cost vs absolute prohibition FLNC, SEDG, ENPH Slight margin pressure on FSLR Manufacturing Credit (45X) No change to base rules; phased out by 2032, critical minerals get extension to 2033 Array, OEMs with U.S. capacity FSLR (relatively), offshore Chinese suppliers Residential Solar (25D / 48E lease) No meaningful changes from prior version; resi leasing stays excluded — RUN, SEDG, ENPH Hydrogen (45V) Still expires after YE25 — BE, PLUG, other H2 developers Sustainable Aviation Fuel (45Z) $1/gallon cap, 80% foreign feedstock eligibility Some biofuel refiners SAF innovators needing higher credits 🔍 Sector Breakdown 🟢 Winners ✅ NEE (NextEra Energy) The clear #1 winner. Storage incentives locked in through 2033 + clarity on construction timelines = massive development tailwinds. ✅ PWR / MTZ (Quanta, MasTec) These are the “grid builders.” Extended visibility into large project awards from 2026–2030 plays directly into their backlog thesis. Less risk from FEOC clauses means better margins. ✅ FLNC (Fluence) Battery storage OEM. Clear IRA runway + softened sourcing rules = business continuity without massive supply chain revamps. ✅ Utility-Scale Solar & Grid Storage Developers Companies developing solar + storage hybrids (SunPower utility arm, AES, 8minute-type platforms) benefit from storage permanence. 🔴 Losers 🚨 RUN (Sunrun), ENPH (Enphase), SEDG (SolarEdge) Senate offered no relief for residential leasing provisions. The lack of 48E clarity and leasing eligibility is a body blow. Combine this with FEOC threshold complexity and you have shrinking TAM + margin compression. 🚨 FSLR (First Solar) Not a loser per se—but the FEOC rule relaxations mean more competition from global solar OEMs. FSLR’s moat was clarity and compliance. That’s now diluted. ⚠️ Hydrogen & SAF Stocks (PLUG, BE, AMTX, GEVO) The legislation does nothing to extend their timelines. 2025 expiration for 45V is fast approaching. SAF support capped. No new winners here. 🧭 Strategic Implications ⚡️ Utility-Scale Projects Are the New Base Case With safe harbor through YE2026 and phased phase-outs, developers now have multi-year visibility. The "data center build years" of 2027–2028 align with strong credit support. That's a runway investors can model. 🔋 Storage Becomes IRA’s Golden Child With 2033 eligibility and no FEOC headwinds, grid-scale battery plays now look like mini renewables REITs —steady projects, clear credits, and locked-in returns. 🧱 FEOC Softening Is Quietly Huge Instead of blacklisting any foreign-linked supply chain, the new regime allows cost thresholds . That means most solar/storage OEMs just need sourcing discipline —not full redesigns. 🧠 Final Thoughts This new bill is not the next IRA. But it’s a hell of a lot better than the House version. It stabilizes tax credit flows for solar, extends the runway for storage , and creates margin visibility for E&C firms serving the grid. It is de-risking the back half of the decade —without the noise of new subsidies. And it tells us that in D.C., grid resilience and power security are bipartisan themes . 📌 Portfolio Angle Overweight Utility-Scale Infra Builders : PWR, MTZ Overweight Grid Storage OEMs : FLNC Cautious on Resi Solar : RUN, ENPH, SEDG Monitor : FSLR (pricing moat erosion), H2 stocks for policy relief Event Trackers : Reconciliation outcome + guidance from NEE, AES, and TSLA on storage strategy How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. 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