골드만삭스의 소프트웨어 대분할: AI 톨게이트를 사라... "대체 가능한 좌석"은 피하라

Goldman’s Great Software Split: Buy the AI Tollbooths... Avoid the “Replaceable Seats” THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Goldman’s Great Software Split: Buy the AI Tollbooths... Avoid the “Replaceable Seats” Goldman’s Great Software Split: Buy the AI Tollbooths... Avoid the “Replaceable Seats” Feb 17, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily --- H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. ❝ Our next webinar is scheduled Friday, February 20 2pm EST more info below. Disclosure Day: A Playbook For Investors If the Government Confirms It Has Alien Technology. Click HERE to sign up. Table of Contents --- H.E.A.T. The Setup: Why the Whole Software Sector Got Hit What Goldman Launched: A Software Pair Trade (Plai … Our Take: This Is the “Software Civil War” • 1) AI Tollbooths (the winners) • 2) AI-Replaceables (the losers) Winners and Losers Watchlist (Symbols) ✅ Winners: “AI Tollbooths” to Own / Overweight ❌ Losers: “AI-Replaceables” to Short / Avoid / Und … What This Means for Positioning Bottom Line --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Meanwhile, Obama just said the quiet part out loud … --- A Stock I’m Watching Disclosure Day: A Playbook for Investors --- In Case You Missed It --- H.E.A.T. Goldman’s custom baskets desk just put out a clean, brutal framework for what’s happening to software right now: the market is no longer paying for “software” as a category —it’s paying for what kind of software you own in an AI world. Their punchline is simple: some software becomes more valuable as AI spreads, and some software gets “agent-ed” into a feature. And Wall Street is finally repricing that reality. This isn’t a typical sell-side “buy list.” It’s a pair trade blueprint —a way to go long the software that’s structurally AI-proof or AI-accelerated, and short (or avoid) the software whose core workflow can be automated, rebuilt, or internalized by agentic AI. The Setup: Why the Whole Software Sector Got Hit Software stocks didn’t just “pull back.” They got assigned an AI disruption discount . Even if a company hasn’t actually lost customers yet… the market is acting like it could. Because once investors believe the job can be done by an AI agent, the multiple doesn’t wait around for confirmation. It reprices first, asks questions later. Goldman’s framing matters here: software used to be the most expensive thing in the market (think ~50x P/E territory). Now, after the reset, software isn’t wearing the crown anymore. Translation: we’re in a new regime where software has to “prove” its moat —and not all moats are equal in the agentic era. What Goldman Launched: A Software Pair Trade (Plain English) Goldman’s desk introduced a Software Pair Trade : Long basket: “AI-proof” + “AI beneficiaries” The kind of software you can’t realistically displace because it’s tied to: physical execution regulatory entrenchment deep integration complexity human accountability …plus the obvious “AI plumbing” layer (compute, data infra, observability, security, hyperscale cloud, AI dev platforms). Short basket: “AI-exposed workflows” Software-tilted workflows that AI can increasingly: automate end-to-end rebuild internally (inside the enterprise) reduce the need for outsourced labor / outsourced workflows Goldman’s key point: the long basket’s growth expectations have materially improved since 2023 , while the “AI-exposed” bucket is closer to stagnation. That’s the whole trade: separate the AI winners from the AI casualties… inside software itself. Our Take: This Is the “Software Civil War” Here’s the cleanest way to think about it: Two types of software exist now: • 1) AI Tollbooths (the winners) These businesses sit in the path of AI traffic . When AI adoption rises, they don’t lose seats… they gain: more traffic more data more complexity more security risk more need for observability, compliance, and orchestration AI doesn’t replace them. AI makes them necessary. • 2) AI-Replaceables (the losers) These companies sell software that is basically: a UI on top of a repeatable workflow a middle layer between you and the result a “human-in-the-loop” process that agents are designed to remove When agents get good enough, these products don’t always die… but they often get: priced like commodities bundled into platforms pressured on seat counts and pricing power Winners and Losers Watchlist (Symbols) Important: Goldman isn’t publishing basket constituents publicly anymore, so the lists below are our translation of the framework into actionable tickers (not “Goldman’s official basket members”). I’m a client of Goldman so I could get the basket if I wanted it, but then I couldn’t write about it, and that’s no fun. ✅ Winners: “AI Tollbooths” to Own / Overweight Edge + Security + Trust (AI traffic creates more attack surface): NET – edge network + security + dev platform optionality CRWD – endpoint + identity + threat intel flywheel PANW – platform consolidation + security spend priority ZS – zero trust as the enterprise perimeter dissolves Observability (agents create chaos; someone must measure reality): DDOG – telemetry + AI monitoring = structural tailwind DT – large-enterprise observability execution (more defensive flavor) Data + Database Gravity (hard to rip out; harder to replicate): ORCL – database + cloud infra + enterprise embed SNOW – data platform + governance (higher beta / execution sensitive) MDB – developer data layer (also higher beta) “High-consequence” software (compliance + accountability): FTNT – security consolidation at scale AKAM – edge security/compute with less hype, more durability NOW – if you believe agents increase orchestration needs (debated, but fits the “workflow control plane” angle) ❌ Losers: “AI-Replaceables” to Short / Avoid / Underweight Seat-based workflow apps with weak data gravity (risk of “feature-ization”): DOCU – signatures become embedded workflow, not a standalone premium BOX – storage is a feature; differentiation gets harder ASAN / SMAR – task/project layers face agentic compression risk MNDY – same category risk (work management gets abstracted) Marketplaces / outsourcing exposure (if AI reduces labor-hours demand): UPWK – risk if “hire an agent” replaces “hire a freelancer” FVRR – similar dynamic IT services / outsourcing (if enterprises internalize work via agents): EPAM – high quality operator, but category faces “build vs buy” shift GLOB – similar INFY / WIT – broad exposure to automation headwinds (with caveats) Legacy “point solutions” where AI can replicate core function fast: RPD – execution + growth issues already visible; also fits “retooling required” bucket QLYS / TENB – not “bad companies,” but pockets like vulnerability management face credible AI disruption narratives (Shorting is a different sport. If you don’t run a short book, treat this as an avoid list , or pair it via relative-value positioning.) What This Means for Positioning If you want the spirit of Goldman’s trade without getting fancy: Own the tollbooths: security + edge + observability + data infrastructure Avoid the replaceables: thin-moat workflow SaaS + outsourced labor proxies If you do run pairs: structure it as long AI plumbing vs short AI-displaceable workflows , so you’re not hostage to overall market direction. Bottom Line The message isn’t “software is dead.” It’s: software is splitting into two economies. One economy gets paid more every time AI usage rises. The other economy gets questioned every time a new model demo drops. And that’s why this Goldman framework matters: it gives you a way to stop arguing the abstract (“AI will change everything”) and start acting on the only question that matters: Is this company the thing AI runs on… or the thing AI replaces? --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today The CPI Cooled… So Why Did Stocks Still Get Hit? (AI Just Put a Haircut on Whole Industries) If you only watched the inflation data, you’d think stocks should’ve ripped higher. Consumer-price growth cooled to a 2.4% annual pace in January. That’s the kind of number that normally screams: “rate cuts are back on the table… buy risk.” Instead, the market basically shrugged — and finished the week with its worst tape since November. That’s your tell: the market isn’t trading CPI right now. It’s trading a new fear premium… AI DISRUPTION. Because once investors start believing AI can compress the profit pool of an entire industry, they don’t wait around for the quarterly impact. They sell first… and ask questions later. THE NEWS (what actually matters) Inflation cooled — and the bond market responded. Treasury yields slid as investors piled back into duration. That’s the “soft landing” script. Defensive hiding places worked. Utilities ripped higher and became the obvious bunker trade. In a market spooked by disruption, people buy regulated cash flows and sleep at night. “Picks and shovels” still win — even in a shaky tape. While AI jitters punished big chunks of the market, the infrastructure layer kept proving itself. Semicap equipment showed life again (Applied Materials popped after earnings), which is the market’s way of saying: “Fine… maybe the apps are uncertain. But the compute buildout is real.” THE NOISE (what’s getting exaggerated) The market is acting like entire sectors will be worth dramatically less money in the future — because AI can automate the middleman. Last week it was software. Then insurance brokers. Then wealth managers / brokerages. Now it’s basically: “spin the wheel… what does AI disrupt next?” Here’s the key distinction investors keep missing in the panic: AI doesn’t have to destroy demand to destroy multiples. A high-margin business that used to deserve a premium can still grow… and yet trade cheaper — simply because the market no longer believes those margins are “safe.” That’s what’s happening under the hood. WHY THIS MATTERS: WE’RE IN A DISPERSION MARKET This is the kind of tape where index-level calm is a lie. The S&P 500 can hover near highs while single stocks — and entire industries — get absolutely smoked. That creates two simultaneous realities: • If you own “safe-looking” premium-multiple businesses, you’re suddenly carrying hidden risk. • If you’re willing to hunt in the wreckage, you can find real opportunities — because panic is rarely precise. SO WHAT’S THE PLAYBOOK? Respect the new regime: “Less is more.” In a world pricing AI disruption, the market rewards companies with REAL moats (distribution, data, regulatory edge, switching costs) — not just recurring revenue and a pretty multiple. Don’t confuse “delayed” with “dead.” AI capex is still happening. The bottleneck is not demand — it’s delivery: power, cooling, and time-to-market. Watch for snapbacks in the most hated areas. When the market crowds into a single narrative (“software is doomed”), positioning gets extreme. That sets up violent mean-reversion rallies — even if the long-term story is nuanced. WEEKLY WINNERS (what the tape is rewarding) • Utilities / defensives (cash flow + safety trade) • Bonds / duration (soft inflation = yield pressure lower) • AI “picks and shovels” (semicap gear, power, cooling, data center infrastructure) • Anything with real assets + pricing power when uncertainty spikes WEEKLY LOSERS (what AI fear is targeting) • High-multiple software (especially “nice revenue, no profits”) • Middlemen economics: brokers, wealth managers, comparison platforms • Any business built on “friction” (fees, commissions, spread capture) with weak moat • Big Tech names when capex headlines overwhelm monetization confidence BOTTOM LINE Softer inflation should’ve been enough to lift the whole market. The fact it wasn’t tells you fear has changed shape. The Fed matters… but AI is now the headline risk that can reprice multiples overnight. In this environment, don’t play defense by hiding in stories. Play defense by owning moats — and play offense by buying panic where fundamentals still hold. Meanwhile, Obama just said the quiet part out loud….. ❝ BREAKING: Obama confirms aliens are real! "They're real, but I haven't seen them. They're not being kept in Area 51. There's no underground facility unless there's this enormous conspiracy and they hid it from the President of the United States. " He later walked it back and who knows whether this was planned mini disclosure, a misunderstanding, or misinformation. As I’ve said before, I don’t think a disclosure event crashes the market, unless it’s aliens are real and they are going to kill us all (which I don’t believe, but if this was the truth they wouldn’t disclose it). From an investment standpoint I’m more interested in what kinds of technology we have right now, and when/if it becomes commercial. I will be talking in the webinar on Friday on how to play this, whether we get actual disclosure or not. --- A Stock I’m Watching Stock I’m Watching: Eli Lilly (LLY) — The “next leg” debate in obesity has shifted from whether GLP-1s work to who owns the next efficacy ceiling , and social chatter is increasingly centering on retatrutide (Lilly’s next‑gen incretin in Phase III) as a potential step-change drug. The bullish pitch is simple: if Phase III validates the earlier signal for meaningfully better weight‑loss (and a cleaner story on tolerability and lean‑mass preservation), Lilly doesn’t just defend its current obesity franchise — it expands the addressable market , raises the standard of care, and potentially extends category leadership into new indications and maintenance/combination regimens. There’s also a second‑order “policy” tailwind investors are starting to whisper about: tighter enforcement around grey‑market/compounded peptides could push incremental demand back toward branded, scalable supply — though it also risks drawing more attention to pricing, access, and the politics of obesity drugs. Net: this is a high-upside optionality catalyst embedded inside a mega‑cap compounder — lower-volatility exposure to a potentially massive pipeline inflection, but with real “expectations risk” if Phase III efficacy/safety doesn’t clear the very high bar the narrative is starting to set. Our next webinar….. Fri, Feb 20, 2PM EST Disclosure Day: A Playbook For Investors If The Government Confirms It Has Alien Technology How to position your portfolio before Washington admits it has non‑human technology, and where the first trillion dollars of “alien alpha” could flow. Click HERE to sign up You’re not crazy if you believe in UFOs or UAP (unidentified anomalous phenomena). In fact, you want to be ready for the day when we’re told, for real, that we’re not alone. You won’t read about it in the Wall Street Journal or hear about it on CNBC — yet. But “Disclosure Day” is coming. And the reality of UAP could trigger a shift in global markets that — no hyperbole — makes the Internet boom and the AI explosion seem tiny. Matt Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management ($4 billion AUM), is an ETF rebel who’s spent decades trading big, unexpected market moves. He created his --- H.E.A.T. investing framework—Hedges, Edges, Asymmetry, Themes—to turn left-field events into high-conviction opportunities. Now, he's deploying that exact playbook on the one catalyst almost no one's positioned for... In a free live “Disclosure Day” briefing, Matt will explain: ✅ Why this isn’t about tinfoil hats. A move from rumor to reality could shift seismic capital across defense, energy, materials, and data – with clear winners and losers. ✅ The “Disclosure Debris:” How small hints can move big money before any big speech from Washington. And why hearings, leaks, and half‑answers already matter more than one big moment if you want a shot at alien alpha. ✅ Early matters – even if you might feel a bit crazy: A simple way to look at UFO news that lets you stay sane, stay skeptical, and still be in position if this really is the next trillion‑dollar theme. ✅ Who could win, who could lose, and when it’s too late: Which sectors of defense, energy, and materials might see money rush in first, and how to think about bet size before everyone on TV is yelling about UFO trades. ✅ The one belief shift that could change how you see every headline about UFOs and tech: The real question isn’t “is this true?” but “what if enough other investors decide it is? ” ✅ A 30‑day playbook for the month after confirmation: A practical way to think about reallocating, hedging, and positioning if Washington ever admits more than it already has – without abandoning your own risk limits. PLUS . . . you’ll get a free copy of Matt’s Why The UAP Thematic Frontier May Be Closer – And Far Larger – Than You Might Think briefing. --- In Case You Missed It Great talk on options with Philip Davis. We do things a bit differently but some great insight on covered calls (write them on value stocks), how to sell puts, and an interesting tail risk strategy…… All rights reserved. Keep Reading View more caret-right