FOMC 7월 30일 요약: Powell의 Hawkish Hold가 취약한 시장을 만났습니다.

FOMC JULY 30 RECAP: Powell’s Hawkish Hold Meets Fragile Markets THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts FOMC JULY 30 RECAP: Powell’s Hawkish Hold Meets Fragile Markets FOMC JULY 30 RECAP: Powell’s Hawkish Hold Meets Fragile Markets Aug 1, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🧠 FOMC JULY 30 RECAP: Powell’s Hawkish Hold Meets … 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now So green to red after a FOMC meeting usually isn’t a good sign, neither is green to red after blowout earnings from 2 of the Mag 7. This suggest further downside risk, which we are seeing so far this morning. AMZN earnings were the latest data to drop last night, and they disappointed a bit and are trading down over 8% at the moment. Was feeling pretty bad about myself for adding hedges pre market yesterday, not so much now. Still have jobs this morning, which could be a game changer one way or the other. My sense is that this “selloff” will be light, take out some froth, and end up being a decent buying opportunity. Watch the moving averages here. Everyone has their favorite and there’s no magic to it. For short term I like the 10 day, which SPY closed under yesterday. I also like the 20 day EMA, which it is trading under this morning….. Still a clear uptrend, but risk is now higher. 🧠 FOMC JULY 30 RECAP: Powell’s Hawkish Hold Meets Fragile Markets Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, accelerated in June. This could be reinforcement for Powell’s wait and see stance. The problem for the Fed, and the markets, is do we see tariffs and a stretched consumer mess up the economy, or do we see AI capex and development keep the momentum going? What the Fed is trying to figure out is are tariffs inflationary? Here’s How Companies Are Dealing With $50 Billion of New Tariffs-WSJ ❝ Someone has to pay the skyrocketing levies the U.S. is collecting on imports—and companies say some of the burden will fall on consumers Bottom line, which one of these narratives is going to dominate? Stock Market Today: Stocks Fall on Trump's Tariff Blitz; Jobs Report Due-WSJ or Big Tech’s $400 Billion AI Spending Spree Just Got Wall Street’s Blessing-WSJ Today we go over what the Fed’s somewhat hawkish stance means for markets. 🔥 Key Takeaways Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50% , but Powell was notably hawkish in tone Two dissents — first time since 1993 — signal growing pressure to ease Tariffs flagged as a structural inflation risk Data quality flagged as a risk due to government budget cuts Markets had expected a dovish lean → got a cold dose of reality 🧭 Big Picture: What Changed? 🟠 Repricing of Rate Expectations Market odds of a September cut dropped from 64% → 44% First cut now expected in December Dollar spiked → best weekly gain since 2022 Equities wobbled but were stabilized by tech earnings strength 🟠 Data Uncertainty Adds Volatility Risk Powell explicitly warned that statistical agencies are underfunded This undermines the Fed’s own tools → greater policy missteps possible Market may need to price in not just policy error but data blindness 🟠 Tariffs = Embedded Inflation Risk Powell: tariffs could create a permanent inflation shift Aligns with Trump’s agenda: 50% copper tariffs, 25% on India, tariff threats on China/Europe Reaccelerating protectionism = stagflation tail risk 🧩 Implications for Markets ✅ Likely Winners Theme Ticker Reason Rate-resilient AI/tech $MSFT, $META, $NVDA Strong earnings help decouple from macro Insurance / P&C $CB, $PGR, $WRB, $MKL Rising yields, low beta, pricing power Defense & Trump Trades $BWXT, $EUAD, $LMT Aligned with protectionist and reindustrialization agenda Domestic infrastructure $VST, $NEE, $CEG Tariff-driven inflation + AI power demand boosts utilities Tariff hedges $WY, $CF, $SMCI Resource and infra names benefit from strategic stockpiling ❌ Likely Losers Theme Ticker Risk Global Materials $FCX, $RIO, $VALE Copper whipsawed by sudden tariff exemptions India exposure $INFY, $WIT, $TTM Tariffs on India exports (25%) = margin pressure High-duration tech $ARKK, $SQ, $SNOW Rising real yields + Powell’s hawkish tone = valuation pressure Export-heavy cyclicals $CAT, $DE, $DAN Uncertainty in trade policy clouds demand from key markets 🏛️ Thematic Interpretation 🧠 1. Data Degradation = Macro Model Breakdown Powell's mention of federal data quality deterioration is seismic. Macro models depend on clean inputs. If CPI, payrolls, and other indicators become unreliable, it opens the door to: Policy missteps Trading edge for firms that track alt data / private indicators Higher volatility premium priced into risk assets ❝ 🧬 Consider AI/data firms like $PLTR (gov + modeling) and alt-data players in hedge fund infrastructure. 🔗 2. Tariffs Are Now Policy Tools, Not Just Headlines Tariffs are no longer “tail risks” — they are becoming core instruments of inflation and geopolitical engineering. This has several effects: Strengthens reshoring , defense , industrial themes Re-rates P&C insurers as defensive yield plays Disrupts supply chains → volatility in materials, autos, pharma 📈 3. Earnings Shield Fragile Positioning Tech earnings from $MSFT, $META saved the tape. Positioning was long, but not overstretched. The AI trade remains the most durable equity bid even as macro tightens. ❝ Continue to lean into picks-and-shovels AI names like $MOD (data center cooling), $VRT, and $SMCI (but hedge China exposure risk). 🔐 Strategic Positioning Playbook Core Themes to Lean Into: P&C insurance : $CB, $PGR, $KNSL, $WRB Domestic AI infrastructure : $MOD, $VRT, $AMRC Data resilience : $PLTR, $SNOW (with rates caveat) Defense + Trump industrial complex : $FLR, $BWXT, $DJT Soft landing barbell : AI + Utilities + Insurers Trades to Watch: Long : $MOD (post-earnings strength + AI infra), $CB/$PGR (rates + pricing) Short or underweight : $FCX, India-exposed tech/services, $ARKK-style high-duration names Volatility edge : Use Powell’s data degradation signal as a thesis to trade around macro releases 🧭 TL;DR: Market Outlook ❝ Powell didn’t blink. But the FOMC cracked. The data is fading. But tariffs are embedding. And in a fragile, bifurcated market — policy mispricing = opportunity . Look for low-beta alpha (insurers), real yield beneficiaries (infra, utilities), and asymmetric trade edges around volatility spikes and data release distortions. A new report from Brendan Wood & Partners Designing Brendan Wood TopGun ETF Final.pdf 264.48 KB • PDF File Download 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is ARM, which cratered on earnings yesterday, but is becoming more integral to AI….. Would watch the 200 day MA for signs of support. From Chat GPT….. ❝ From an investment standpoint, Arm is less about quarter-to-quarter revenue beats and more about structural positioning. With nearly half of data center CPU designs now Arm-based, the company is reaching escape velocity. Importantly, they’re not just licensing cores anymore—they’re moving up the stack into chiplets, boards, and possibly full systems, setting up a vertically integrated moat around compute performance per watt. 📬 --- In Case You Missed It Always fun to see one of your ETFs make headlines…… Roblox Q2 Earnings Beat Sends Leveraged RBLU Soaring - The leveraged RBLU fund surged nearly 25% following the gaming platform's earnings beat. - Strong bookings growth of 51% drove gains across gaming and Web3 ETFs. - User growth of 41% and raised guidance are boosting investor confidence. www.etf.com/sections/news/roblox-q2-earnings-beat-sends-leveraged-rblu-soaring 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. 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