기억하시나요? 9월의 그리드 워블(Grid Wobble)을? (바-디-야)

Do You Remember... The September Grid Wobble? (Ba‐dee‐ya) THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Do You Remember... The September Grid Wobble? (Ba‐dee‐ya) Do You Remember... The September Grid Wobble? (Ba‐dee‐ya) Feb 13, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily --- H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. ❝ Our next webinar is scheduled Friday, February 20 2pm EST more info below. Disclosure Day: A Playbook For Investors If the Government Confirms It Has Alien Technology. Click HERE to sign up. Table of Contents --- H.E.A.T. The September Data‑Center Wobble The setup: we’re entering the recognition window Why September 2026 is the “wobble” month • 1) Politics: “grid stress” becomes election oxygen • 2) Physics: the bottlenecks don’t care about speec … • 3) Disclosure: the “numbers hit the tape” at the w … The mistake Wall Street will make How to position for the wobble Own “firm power” and “real megawatts,” not “paper … Winners: who benefits when the market misreads del … • 1) The Toll Collectors: Power scarcity winners (me … • 2) The “Wires & Shovels” Winners: transmission, su … • 3) The Hardware Bottleneck Winners: transformers, … • 4) Data Center “Inside-the-Fence” Winners: cooling … • 5) BYOG Winners: “Bring Your Own Generation” toolk … • 6) The “Powered Real Estate” Winners: data center … • 7) High-Beta “Optional Capacity” Winners: powered … Losers: who gets exposed when the grid turns into … • 1) “Paper MW” developers • 2) Shell builders without electrons • 3) Single‑metro exposure to political backlash • 4) Anyone dependent on the grid behaving like a te … The “tell” to watch: delay headlines that don’t ma … What could invalidate the whole setup --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Here’s the read on yesterday’s tape: the market is … What happened Could CRE “finally” take down regional banks? Implication for positioning --- A Stock I’m Watching Disclosure Day: A Playbook for Investors --- In Case You Missed It --- H.E.A.T. The September Data‑Center Wobble Politics × Physics × Disclosure = the best “buy the panic” window in AI infrastructure Here’s the trade most investors still don’t understand: AI isn’t constrained by chips anymore… it’s constrained by electrons. You can order GPUs in quarters. You can stand up shells in quarters. You can sign “demand” in quarters. But you cannot get utility‑grade power (and the hardware that delivers it) on a quarterly timeline. That mismatch is the whole story of 2026–2027. And September 2026 is when Wall Street is most likely to misread it—creating a very real “headline dip” in the best names. The setup: we’re entering the recognition window This is built around a deceptively simple idea: The constraint already flipped : it’s no longer land, capital, or even permitting alone. It’s time‑to‑power and power quality (reliability, uptime, redundancy, interconnection). The market always lags physics : insiders have been living in the constraint since 2024–2025. The public markets only “believe” it when missed energizations, phased CODs, and rising CIAC show up in reported numbers. That’s why 2026–2027 is the re‑rating window. It’s when “engineering problems” become “earnings problems”… and when the scarcity premium becomes impossible to ignore. ❝ “Delayed / pushed out” does not equal “stopped.” The megawatts shift to the right. They don’t disappear. In a power‑constrained world, the line gets longer… the line doesn’t leave . Why September 2026 is the “wobble” month September is when three cycles collide . • 1) Politics: “grid stress” becomes election oxygen September is 2–3 months before midterms. That’s when campaigns need simple villains and scary narratives: “Big Tech is stealing your power” “Your bills are rising because of data centers” “Blackout risk” “Water/noise/diesel generators” “Local communities vs hyperscalers” It doesn’t matter whether the narrative is fair. It matters that it’s headline‑friendly and emotionally viral . • 2) Physics: the bottlenecks don’t care about speeches You can fast‑track paperwork … but you can’t fast‑track: large power transformers switchgear substations transmission upgrades commissioning windows protection/relay coordination interconnection queue throughput So politics can accelerate approvals , but approvals do not produce electrons. • 3) Disclosure: the “numbers hit the tape” at the worst moment Late summer / early fall is when the most “legible” evidence tends to become visible: updated ISO/RTO queue data adequacy and reliability metrics utility planning roll‑forwards hyperscaler guidance resets (what slipped, what phased, what requires BYOG) Now combine that with politics… and you get the perfect storm: Models revise down because CODs slip (optical softness). Headlines scream “data centers slowing” (narrative shock). But the underlying scarcity is getting tighter (fundamental strength). That’s how you get a classic mispricing. The mistake Wall Street will make Most investors model the data‑center buildout like software: linear ramps clean calendars “capacity delivered” = “capacity demanded” But the grid doesn’t work like cloud. The grid works like shipbuilding. So when the market sees: delayed energizations phased CODs “pushouts” into 2027–2028 … it will interpret that as demand destruction . That’s the wrong interpretation. In a constrained system, delays often mean: scarcity pricing intensifies power‑secured sites get a premium BYOG becomes a “ticket to play” second‑tier geographies with real electrons outperform the winners widen the moat while everyone else waits in line Translation: September’s wobble is most likely a timing panic , not a thesis break. How to position for the wobble Think about this theme in one sentence: Own “firm power” and “real megawatts,” not “paper megawatts.” The winners aren’t the loudest AI storytellers. They’re the firms that can answer two questions when the market freaks out: Do you have power secured (not just requested)? Can you deliver on time (or bring your own generation)? Winners: who benefits when the market misreads delays as “slowdown” • 1) The Toll Collectors: Power scarcity winners (merchant + baseload + wires) Merchant / deregulated power (price-setters when the grid tightens): VST (Vistra) – ERCOT-style tightness = outsized pricing power when load shows up before new supply. NRG (NRG Energy) – flexible generation + retail footprint; volatility can become earnings leverage. TLN (Talen Energy) – PJM exposure + the “direct-to-data-center offtake” optionality bucket. Baseload / “firm power” scarcity: CEG (Constellation Energy) – nuclear-heavy = the cleanest “24/7 power” beneficiary when AI load becomes political and physical. Regulated wires utilities in the path of load growth (rate base growth): D (Dominion Energy) – the “Virginia data center” lever; if you believe NoVA remains the bullseye, this is a core utility gatekeeper. SO (Southern Company) – Southeast load growth + generation/transmission capex cycle. DUK (Duke Energy) – Carolinas + Southeast electrification and large-load interconnect wave. EXC (Exelon) – wires-heavy footprint; grid capex and reliability spend show up in allowed returns. • 2) The “Wires & Shovels” Winners: transmission, substations, grid buildout When the bottleneck is years of interconnect + substations + transmission , the contractors become the hidden kings. PWR (Quanta Services) – the blue-chip “grid build” compounder (transmission, substation work, storm hardening). MYRG (MYR Group) – pure-play T&D contractor leverage. MTZ (MasTec) – grid + energy infrastructure buildout torque. PRIM (Primoris) – utility infrastructure, transmission, energy construction. • 3) The Hardware Bottleneck Winners: transformers, switchgear, electrification This is where the “you can’t conjure electrons” theme becomes literal — the physical kit is the constraint. ETN (Eaton) – electrical distribution + power management (a classic “grid capex + data center electrical” winner). HUBB (Hubbell) – grid components, connectors, T&D hardware; quietly sits right in the spend stream. GEV (GE Vernova) – grid equipment exposure (the picks-and-shovels side of electrification). POWL (Powell Industries) – switchgear/power control gear; very “inside-the-fence” for industrial/datacenter builds. NVT (nVent) – enclosures/thermal/electrical connectivity; a “small parts, huge volumes” beneficiary. • 4) Data Center “Inside-the-Fence” Winners: cooling + power delivery If AI racks go denser, cooling and power distribution become the profit pool . VRT (Vertiv) – the most direct “data center power + thermal” publicly traded exposure. TT (Trane Technologies) – HVAC/cooling capacity that scales with higher rack density. CARR (Carrier) – cooling systems + infrastructure demand. JCI (Johnson Controls) – building controls/efficiency + large facilities buildout. MOD (Modine) – exposure to thermal management demand as density rises. • 5) BYOG Winners: “Bring Your Own Generation” toolkit When the grid says “not yet,” the winners are the companies that sell the workaround. BE (Bloom Energy) – fuel cells positioned as “data-center campus power,” especially where speed-to-power matters. CAT (Caterpillar) – gensets are the default “insurance policy” for reliability. CMI (Cummins) – engines/gensets + power solutions. GNRC (Generac) – backup power + distributed generation exposure. • 6) The “Powered Real Estate” Winners: data center landlords These names win when powered capacity becomes the scarce inventory . EQIX (Equinix) – interconnection + colocation ecosystem leverage. DLR (Digital Realty) – hyperscale/wholesale footprint; power availability becomes the differentiator. IRM (Iron Mountain) – growing data center footprint + enterprise relationships. • 7) High-Beta “Optional Capacity” Winners: powered MW → AI/HPC pivots This is the risk-on , higher-volatility subset: companies trying to re-rate powered megawatts from “mining” to “AI infrastructure.” CLSK (CleanSpark) – pitched as an “inference reliability / uptime” winner. WULF (TeraWulf) – framed around execution/on-time conversion to GPU-ready capacity. CIFR (Cipher Mining) – “optional capacity / scalable power roadmap” angle. RIOT (Riot Platforms) – “balance sheet liquidity funds the build” concept. CORZ (Core Scientific) – leveraged to contracted HPC capacity execution. WYFI (WhiteFiber) – “vertical integration / GPU-as-a-service” torque. HUT (Hut • 8) – also flagged in the same “optional capacity” bucket (note: not US-domiciled, but US-traded). Losers: who gets exposed when the grid turns into a gatekeeper September’s wobble, if it comes, won’t be random. It will punish the same weak links: • 1) “Paper MW” developers big land positions glossy pipeline slides interconnection requests ≠ secured power “we’re in the queue” business models • 2) Shell builders without electrons If your advantage is “we can pour concrete fast,” you don’t have an advantage anymore. Concrete isn’t scarce. Energization is. • 3) Single‑metro exposure to political backlash If your growth plan depends on one region where approvals become a midterm talking point, you’ve got narrative risk layered on top of physical constraints. • 4) Anyone dependent on the grid behaving like a tech platform The grid behaves like infrastructure (slow, regulated, equipment‑bound). Markets punish the companies that pretend otherwise. The “tell” to watch: delay headlines that don’t match pricing power If September brings the wobble, here’s the diagnostic test: Do rents, contract terms, and take‑or‑pay structures stay firm? Do powered sites keep getting bid? Do BYOG requirements expand? If yes, then “slowdown” is likely optics— and the selloff is your entry. What could invalidate the whole setup What would have to change for scarcity to stop being scarcity? Transformer lead times collapse (a real step‑function improvement, not marginal easing) Permitting reforms that speed civil works (not just queue studies) A true demand downshift (not delays—actual cancellations + sustained downward revisions) Absent those, the trade remains: scarcity reallocates, it doesn’t disappear. If September delivers the wobble, it’s likely to be the market confusing timing slippage for demand destruction … and that’s exactly when you want to be shopping for power‑secured, execution‑credible names. --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Here’s the read on yesterday’s tape: the market is barbell-ing “real estate” into ( • 1) AI-enabling digital infrastructure winners vs. ( • 2) office/transaction/credit-adjacent losers. What looks like a weird, contradictory move (CBRE down hard while data centers rip) is actually the market making a pretty coherent second-order AI bet . What happened • 1) Data centers are being treated as “AI infrastructure,” not “rate-sensitive real estate.” Equinix is the cleanest example: it put up strong demand signals (record momentum / bookings language, and a notably better 2026 outlook), and investors are paying up for the scarcity + pricing power that comes with AI-driven capacity constraints. That’s why you can see data-center / digital infra names catching a bid even when other “real estate” sleeves are getting hit. • 2) CBRE (and the real estate services complex) is getting thrown into the “AI eats office” bucket. The narrative trade is: AI → fewer marginal knowledge-worker seats → less office demand → lower leasing/sales volumes → weaker brokerage/capital markets fee pools. That’s the “AI scare trade” framing that’s been hitting real-estate services names. What’s notable is the market is willing to sell these stocks even when the quarter itself doesn’t look catastrophic , because the debate is shifting from “near-term earnings” to “terminal demand for office + transaction velocity.” (That’s why you can get violent post-print moves that feel disconnected from the income statement.) • 3) Regional banks selling off is the “credit transmission mechanism” of the same story. When “office” gets repriced lower, investors immediately ask: who funds office? The answer is: banks (and especially smaller/regional balance sheets) plus CMBS/CRE credit. The “news” (signal): AI is accelerating a split inside real estate : Winners: data centers / interconnection / AI-adjacent infra where demand is structurally rising and capacity is the constraint. Losers: office-exposed ecosystems where demand is structurally questioned (and where revenue is tied to transaction velocity and leasing activity). Office credit stress is not theoretical. Office delinquencies have already shown they can jump on specific large defaults (Fitch cited an office-driven spike in late payments in 2025). The “noise” (likely overstated in the very short-term): CBRE ≠ “office landlord.” CBRE is diversified (outsourcing/facilities, industrial, logistics, data center services, etc.). The stock can still get hit as a symbol of office/transaction exposure even if the real business mix is broader. The tape is trading category risk , not parsing segment margins in real time. One-day (or week) moves in regionals don’t automatically mean “CRE crisis is here.” The market often uses regionals as a liquid hedge for CRE anxiety. You need corroborating credit data (criticized loans, reserve builds, downgrades, refinancing failures) before you conclude “finally taking them down.” Could CRE “finally” take down regional banks? It’s possible in pockets , but it’s less likely to be a single systemic “gotcha” and more likely a rolling, idiosyncratic problem: Why it could bite: office loans are refinance-sensitive; if values are down and rates/terms are tighter, you get maturity defaults, extensions, and “extend-and-pretend” that eventually becomes realized losses. The CMBS delinquency data shows the stress can re-accelerate quickly when maturities hit. Why it may not be a 2008-style wipeout: banks have been actively de-risking and offloading CRE exposure (private credit stepping in as the buyer of risk is a real pressure-release valve). Example: Blackstone buying a large CRE loan pool from a regional bank is exactly that “risk moves from banks to private capital” dynamic. My checklist to tell “tape fear” from “real CRE event risk” (high signal): Office loan maturities + refinancing outcomes (not headlines) Bank-by-bank office concentration (office loans as % of total loans and as % of tangible common equity) Provisioning/criticized loan trends quarter-to-quarter CRE credit spreads (CMBS AAA vs BBB-, bank preferreds) widening in a sustained way Transaction cap rates vs borrowing costs (when the spread is deeply negative, forced sellers appear) Implication for positioning Data centers are rallying because they’re a “capacity-constrained AI toll road.” That’s fundamental. CBRE/real-estate-services are selling off because the market is pricing a structural hit to office intensity and transaction velocity from AI (and not waiting for the evidence to fully show up). Regional banks are the second-order expression of that office/CRE anxiety—worth respecting, but you need confirming credit data before calling it “the thing that finally breaks them.” IF they do break though….. SKRE - Inverse Regional Banks ETF | Innovative Investment Strategy Explore SKRE, the Inverse Regional Banks ETF offering a unique investment strategy with -200% daily performance of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF. Ideal for navigating volatile markets. www.shortregionalbanks.com --- A Stock I’m Watching Today’s stock is CrowdStrike (CRWD)… CRWD is our cybersecurity exposure in MEMY as I believe cyber is an important theme, and CRWD is the best positioned in the group. Looking at a daily chart, it’s taken a beating this year, now trying to pull and undercut and rally at the 10 day moving average and the September lows. Cybersecurity is moving from “important IT line item” to existential operating requirement because the attack surface is exploding: cloud workloads, remote endpoints, APIs, third‑party integrations, and now AI agents that run continuously and touch systems autonomously. In that world, security spend doesn’t behave like discretionary software—it behaves like insurance plus uptime, because one serious breach can halt revenue, trigger regulatory/legal exposure, and permanently damage customer trust. CrowdStrike is the one I want because it’s positioned as a platform rather than a point product: it sits at the endpoint with a massive sensor footprint, turns telemetry into a data/network effect, and can expand into adjacent modules (identity, cloud, SIEM/next‑gen SOC workflows, exposure management) without forcing customers to stitch together five vendors. If “agents everywhere” becomes the next computing layer, that’s not bearish for security—it’s bullish—and CRWD has the best mix of scale, product velocity, and customer embeddedness to compound as enterprises standardize on fewer, broader security platforms. Our next webinar….. Fri, Feb 20, 2PM EST Disclosure Day: A Playbook For Investors If The Government Confirms It Has Alien Technology How to position your portfolio before Washington admits it has non‑human technology, and where the first trillion dollars of “alien alpha” could flow. Click HERE to sign up You’re not crazy if you believe in UFOs or UAP (unidentified anomalous phenomena). In fact, you want to be ready for the day when we’re told, for real, that we’re not alone. You won’t read about it in the Wall Street Journal or hear about it on CNBC — yet. But “Disclosure Day” is coming. And the reality of UAP could trigger a shift in global markets that — no hyperbole — makes the Internet boom and the AI explosion seem tiny. Matt Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management ($4 billion AUM), is an ETF rebel who’s spent decades trading big, unexpected market moves. He created his --- H.E.A.T. investing framework—Hedges, Edges, Asymmetry, Themes—to turn left-field events into high-conviction opportunities. Now, he's deploying that exact playbook on the one catalyst almost no one's positioned for... In a free live “Disclosure Day” briefing, Matt will explain: ✅ Why this isn’t about tinfoil hats. A move from rumor to reality could shift seismic capital across defense, energy, materials, and data – with clear winners and losers. ✅ The “Disclosure Debris:” How small hints can move big money before any big speech from Washington. And why hearings, leaks, and half‑answers already matter more than one big moment if you want a shot at alien alpha. ✅ Early matters – even if you might feel a bit crazy: A simple way to look at UFO news that lets you stay sane, stay skeptical, and still be in position if this really is the next trillion‑dollar theme. ✅ Who could win, who could lose, and when it’s too late: Which sectors of defense, energy, and materials might see money rush in first, and how to think about bet size before everyone on TV is yelling about UFO trades. ✅ The one belief shift that could change how you see every headline about UFOs and tech: The real question isn’t “is this true?” but “what if enough other investors decide it is? ” ✅ A 30‑day playbook for the month after confirmation: A practical way to think about reallocating, hedging, and positioning if Washington ever admits more than it already has – without abandoning your own risk limits. PLUS . . . you’ll get a free copy of Matt’s Why The UAP Thematic Frontier May Be Closer – And Far Larger – Than You Might Think briefing. --- In Case You Missed It Focus on areas that AI isn’t going to eat…… All rights reserved. Keep Reading View more caret-right