DAT(Crypto Treasuries)가 돌아왔습니다: Edge 또는 Exit?

Crypto Treasuries (DATs) Are Back: Edge or Exit? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Crypto Treasuries (DATs) Are Back: Edge or Exit? Crypto Treasuries (DATs) Are Back: Edge or Exit? Oct 3, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🧠Crypto Treasuries (DATs) Are Back: Edge or Exit? What’s new (and why it matters) Winners vs. Losers (framework) Likely Winners Likely Losers How I’d trade it • 1) Core relative-value: Long BTC / Short a basket … • 2) Discount-to-par catalysts (specials) • 3) WLFI/alt-token treasuries = event trades, not i … • 4) BMNR: trade the machine, not the meme Risk Map (what can nuke the thesis) What to watch (weekly dashboard) Bottom line Sources 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now Second day of the government shutdown and markets were green again, and green in pre market. We’ve been focusing a lot on crypto this week, and it has not disappointed. Yesterday I mentioned that Bitcoin looked like it wanted to test the highs…. And that Ethereum needed to break above the 50 day…. I continue to believe you need to own crypto, which is why many of our launches focus there…. — # (# ) Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf They tried to sell gold off yesterday, but it closed well off the lows…. Had a great conversation with Jerry Parker yesterday on the podcast (below) about systematic trend following. I am a big believer that countertrend strategies work and will continue to work, and I refer to them as a structural Edge and part of the --- H.E.A.T. Formula. I’m somewhat dubious about trend following. Interestingly, I though Jerry would be more of a raving fan, but I think even he is a bit disappointed with how it’s performed recently. The benefit of systematic managed futures is that you can trade 400 markets like Jerry does, but I used to say you should have a fixed allocation We also interviewed Tom Basso a couple of weeks ago, he’s also a systematic trend follower, and he was much more rah rah about it…. He doesn’t have funds where you can see performance though. I have backtested his strategies in Bloomberg (I am dubious about their backtesting engine) and wasn’t blown away. Gary Kaltbaum on the other hand, is a discretionary trend follower….. He’s looking at charts and can’t trade 400 markets simultaneously. Bottom line, why I like interviewing guys like this on the podcast, is there is not right answer. I like to take different things from different people and apply them based on my skills, my portfolio goals, and how much time I have to watch markets. For me, I use trend following from the standpoint that I have a moving average crossing indicator on my thematic portfolio. In a perfect world I would read charts, I’m good at it, but I don’t have the time. So the moving averages just keep me out of trouble. I think the key thing Jerry said is that he is constantly studying new ideas and adapting. The strategy he uses today is very different from what he did as a Turtle. I’ve said before that the biggest beneficiary of AI could be biotech and healthcare. We are seeing some great breakthroughs in a number of areas, but things like this are game changing….. Using AI to See the Hidden Signs of Breast Cancer Researchers and companies are designing AI algorithms that can detect signs of breast cancer in mammograms before those signs are visible to the human eye. WSJ reporter Brianna Abbott joins to share how these advanced AI tools compare against current risk-detection methods. www.wsj.com/podcasts/tech-news-briefing/using-ai-to-see-the-hidden-signs-of-breast-cancer/35667a1b-c950-4e88-b9d8-b68b0f50756b 🧠 Crypto Treasuries (DATs) Are Back: Edge or Exit? On the heels of our successful launch of BMNU…. — # (# ) And Crypto Treasury (DATs) in the news so much I figured it would be time to hit them again. I personally own a few of the ones that I think can be successful and I like them as a crypto substitute for those who can’t or won’t own crypto direct. I also think there are too many of them, and most won’t make it. DATs (Digital Asset Treasury companies) are surging again as more micro/micro-cap names pivot to holding BTC/ETH/SOL (and now WLFI/HYPE/ENA) on balance sheet. The pitch is simple: buy equity to access crypto exposure. The reality: dilution, governance, custody opacity, and NAV gaps drive outcomes more than token direction. MarketsWiki+1 Premiums → discounts: A growing slice of DATs now trade at or below their crypto NAV , reflecting “dilution fatigue” and investor selectivity. Even the flagship proxy has seen its premium compress sharply. Morningstar+1 BMNR (BitMine Immersion) is the current crowd magnet; treat it like a financing machine with crypto beta where issuance, borrow cost, and treasury verification matter as much as the coins. MarketWatch+1 Expect M&A, liquidations, and forced selling to cull the herd if crypto wobbles. Discounts won’t magically close without catalysts. LongHash Ventures What’s new (and why it matters) DATs go mainstream In 2025, >200 public companies adopted “crypto-treasury” strategies—raising capital and buying tokens (BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, WLFI, HYPE, ENA). It’s now an investable sub-ecosystem, not a handful of outliers. Morningstar Premium to NAV is dying The “buy equity above NAV” model is stalling. Analysts now flag discounts across a quarter of the universe; the marquee proxy’s premium has eroded toward ~1.4. Translation: equity holders are no longer paid for the pivot by default. Morningstar+1 Political/brand tokens enter the chat (WLFI) WLFI and its corporate tie-ins (ALT5 Sigma/ALTS) supercharged headlines—but the equity often underperformed the token narrative as discounts widened and volatility spiked. Investopedia+1 Regulatory and microstructure risk Reports of volume spikes before treasury announcements, and scrutiny from regulators, add a tail risk to story stocks. (MarketWatch/WSJ reporting.) Morningstar Winners vs. Losers (framework) Likely Winners Scale, balance-sheet discipline, and transparent treasury ops. Names that • 1) keep issuance in check , • 2) disclose wallets/custody and third-party attestations, and • 3) run clean governance are best positioned to retain a premium or close a discount . The flagship’s premium compression shows that policy on equity issuance directly changes the equity/coin wedge. Barron's DATs with “meta-optionalities.” If they add staking yield (ETH/SOL where appropriate), real cash flow, or strategic M&A that consolidates discounts accretively, they can create NAV-accretion beyond coin beta. LongHash Ventures Credible miners/infra with treasuries. When you get both production economics and treasury leverage (and can term out capex), equity can outperform coin beta on upswings. Watch BMNR as a sentiment bellwether, but underwrite like a miner/hoster first, not a coin ETF. MarketWatch+1 Likely Losers ATM-driven “NAV mills.” Chronic share issuance (ATMs, converts) to buy more tokens tends to trap equity below NAV —dilution outruns coin gains, premiums collapse. The flagship’s premium shrinkage amid issuance pivots is the tell. Barron's Opaque WLFI/alt-token treasuries without verifiable reserves. If custody isn’t transparent and treasury addresses aren’t attested, discounts persist and can widen into drawdowns (ALT5/ALTS experience). Investopedia+1 Subscale pivots from failing legacy ops. If the core business was broken and the DAT pivot is the plan, not a plan with governance, expect a perpetual discount and high borrow—until M&A or liquidation. (KindlyMD/NAKA arc.) Morningstar+1 How I’d trade it • 1) Core relative-value: Long BTC / Short a basket of premium-to-NAV DATs Thesis: Own the asset, short the leakage (dilution + fees + governance). Screen: Premium > 1.2×, elevated borrow utilizations , ATMs active, poor disclosure. Hedge: Roll 0DTE/short-dated calls against BTC on spikes; cover shorts when discounts approach parity. • 2) Discount-to-par catalysts (specials) Long discounted DATs with near-term catalysts : announced buybacks , wallet attestations , or M&A (stock-for-stock at higher multiple) can drive NAV convergence . Size small; exit on gap-close. LongHash Ventures • 3) WLFI/alt-token treasuries = event trades, not investments If you play WLFI/HYPE/ENA treasury names around launches/PR, treat as short-fuse volatility with hard stops. Don’t underwrite terminal value without verifiable reserves and leak-proof capital plan . Investopedia • 4) BMNR: trade the machine, not the meme Track: issuance cadence , ETH/BTC holdings adds , hosting utilization , and borrow costs . If equity screams ahead of NAV on issuance rumors, fade the pop; if it trades at sustainable discount with wallet attestations , it’s a candidate for a tactical long into catalyst dates. Yahoo Finance+1 Risk Map (what can nuke the thesis) Coin drawdown + equity issuance = liquidation spiral : discounts widen, lenders tighten, weaker DATs puke tokens to survive—amplifying downside in spot. LongHash Ventures Regulatory action on trading anomalies or treasury disclosures → gap risk in single names. Morningstar Funding markets shut (ATMs/converts dry up) → M&A or wind-downs accelerate; discounts may persist even on coin upswings. What to watch (weekly dashboard) Premium/discount to NAV by name (fully diluted), with policy notes on issuance thresholds (e.g., “issue only >2.5× NAV”). Barron's Treasury attestations (wallets, custody, auditor letters) vs. “press-release only.” Borrow rate/utilization for high-beta DATs (short crowding). Token mix (BTC vs. ETH/SOL vs. WLFI/HYPE/ENA) and liquidity depth . Investopedia M&A chatter and insider flows; rising insider sales alongside premiums = red flag. Barron's Bottom line ❝ DATs are not a free lunch. In 2020–23, equity premiums rewarded “first movers.” In 2025, the market is smarter: no clean story, no premium . Own the asset (BTC/ETH) and rent the DATs around catalysts—or target discounts with real closing paths (attestations, buybacks, M&A). Avoid ATM-driven “NAV mills.” Morningstar+1 Sources MarketWatch/Morningstar recap on discounts to NAV and the DAT wave. Morningstar Barron’s on the flagship premium erosion and issuance policy. Barron's ALT5/WLFI context: Investopedia + Yahoo/Reuters coverage. Investopedia+2Reuters+2 KindlyMD/NAKA case and crash timeline. Decrypt+2Yahoo Finance+2 BMNR background and live tracking references. MarketWatch+1 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is Churchill Capital Corp X (CCCX)….. This one’s a SPAC, bit too rich to be in SPCX , but it’s still somewhat of an asymmetrical play…. — # (# ) 📬 --- In Case You Missed It Jerry Parker on trend following… 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unleashed Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0