Chamath의 SPAC 출시는 위험 자산에 대한 낙관적입니다

Chamath Launching a SPAC is Bullish for Risk Assets THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Chamath Launching a SPAC is Bullish for Risk Assets Chamath Launching a SPAC is Bullish for Risk Assets Daily 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Your Financial GPS Matthew Tuttle Jun 20, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF Our Next Webinar— - Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine All Things Options Chamath Launching a SPAC is Bullish for Risk Assets The GENIUS Act: Crypto Goes Mainstream How the AI Arms Race Is Quietly Rewiring the Entire Power Grid—and the Stocks Set to Soar Natural gas is running hot. Oil is still napping. But the smart money is starting to stir. How the robotic AI revolution just became real—and who’s poised to cash in and more…….. Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Thu, Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT - Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside - How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does. - My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street To register: register.gotowebinar.com/register/8214490301707453020 In yesterday’s podcast we took a deep dive on all things options with Options Insider Mark Longo The HEAT Formula is highly customizable but IMHO correctly using options can enhance results, so this is a must see episode……. Chamath Launching a SPAC is Bullish for Risk Assets — # (# ) — # (# ) Markets a bit weaker here, could be people sleeping on the FOMC and feeling it was a bit more hawkish than previously thought and/or more fear about the US entering a broader Middle Eastern war. Trump rips into 'too late' Jerome Powell after Fed holds rates steady President Donald Trump has long criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates. www.cnbc.com/2025/06/19/trump-powell-fed-interest-rates.html ❝ GEOPOLITICS: WHAT’S CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY? TIMELINE EXTENDED: Trump’s decision window has shifted from “days” to “two weeks,” signaling a pause for diplomacy. DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT DEEPENS: Geneva talks are now active, with European and Gulf states pushing hard for de-escalation. MILITARY POSTURE CLARIFIED: The delay is strategic, allowing for full deployment and readiness. RISK CALCULUS SHARPENED: New analysis outlines the operational and geopolitical risks of a Fordow strike. REGIONAL DYNAMICS INTENSIFY: Gulf states are more vocal and active in diplomacy, fearing direct fallout. Jef-X (Daily Macro) Chamath wants to launch another SPAC :). As I said on X, I think if he can pull that off and get people to give him money it’s a positive for risk assets. The so-called SPAC king prepares to launch another. ‘The last time wasn’t a success by any means.’ The so-called SPAC king, who created a dozen special-purpose acquisition vehicles that lost investors billions of dollars, says he’s getting back in the business. www.marketwatch.com/story/the-so-called-spac-king-prepares-to-launch-another-the-last-time-wasnt-a-success-by-any-means-0426b24b?mod=home_lead Doesn’t mean we aren’t in a bubble, we probably are, as long as you always have hedges and are nimble it doesn’t matter. It’s triple witching today so plan accordingly…. Why the biggest-ever ‘triple witching’ options expiration could jolt Friday’s trading On Friday, option traders will face something unprecedented: A monthly options-expiration event coming one day after a holiday when major U.S. stock exchanges will have been closed for business. www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-biggest-ever-triple-witching-options-expiration-could-deliver-a-jolt-to-fridays-trading-c737aaa7?mod=home_lead I think the biggest thing going on right now is the Genius Act….. 💥 The GENIUS Act: Crypto Goes Mainstream — # (# ) — # (# ) Now that the GENIUS Act has passed we are going to take another look and highlight Circle (CRCL)…….. What just happened: The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) with strong bipartisan support (68–30), sending it to the House . This is a landmark move to regulate stablecoins with: 100% backing by cash or ≤90-day Treasurys Monthly reserve disclosures and AML compliance Audited financials for issuers >$50B Holder-priority in bankruptcy cases This places stablecoins clearly within U.S. financial infrastructure , giving them legal legitimacy alongside traditional banks. 🌐 What Stablecoins Could Mean for the Economy Bank deposits shift If you pull $1 from a bank to a stablecoin, that bank loses deposit funding—but government demand for Treasurys soars ($0.90 per $ • 1) curzioresearch.combusinessinsider.com . That could hurt regional banks , making their funding more volatile and expensive . Treasury markets & yield curve U.S. Treasurys will face volatile demand. Short-term yields may fall, long-end may stay, steepening the curve and complicating Fed moves . Credit card networks threatened Stablecoins mean near‑instant, free settlement—bypassing the fees that Visa/MA/American Express rely on. Expect merchants like Amazon and Walmart to build or integrate their own digital payment rails Payments efficiency boost Cross-border transfers become cheaper & faster. Banks will scramble to offer “tokenized deposits” to compete c . Regulatory safety net in place Transparency, audits, AML rules limit black‑market use. But offshore tokens (e.g., Tether) may slip through regulatory cracks 🏆 Winners & Losers 🟢 Winners Circle (CRCL) : IPO soared on the Senate vote . With USDC as a regulated digital dollar, Circle is positioned to dominate tokenized global payments and settlements . Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) : Integrating stablecoin rails into existing networks could preserve, even grow, fee revenue—but only if they adapt quickly . Big banks embracing blockchain : JPMorgan filed for its own stablecoin (JPMD). Others will follow—and those that do best can survive the shift cointelegraph.com . Treasury & bond market transparency outfits : Firms tied to market infrastructure and short-term rate forecasting win as Treasurys are used more as reserves. 🔻 Losers Regional & community banks : Risk of unstable deposits , less insured funding, and higher funding costs make them vulnerable . Credit card companies : If stablecoin rails erode interchange fees, platforms like Visa and MA face existential disruption—unless they pivot fast. Offshore/opaque stablecoins : Issuers like Tether don’t fit the new rules—and offshore use on U.S. exchanges may be banned . Smaller banks & fintech apps : Those who fail to pivot to tokenized deposits or stablecoin integration risk losing a share of everyday banking. 🧠 Spotlight: Circle (CRCL) Circle is front-and-center in this revolution: USDC market cap ≈ $61B IPO more than tripled from $31 to over $100 in days. Creates a base layer for global digital dollar finance —from wholesale payments to tokenized dollar loans and more . The GENIUS Act removes major regulatory uncertainty, giving Circle an institutional edge . Fundamental judgment : Circle is less a crypto play and more a regulated financial infrastructure bet. If you believe the U.S. builds its digital financial backbone on stablecoins, CRCL is a must-own. 🛠️ Strategic Moves Buy CRCL : It's the infrastructure layer, not a pump‑and‑dump token. Overweight big banks building their own rails : JPM, BAC, C — choose those embracing digital ledger innovation. Hedge short-term yield risk : Expect volatility in short-end Treasurys. Evaluate Visa/MA : If they integrate stablecoin tech, good; if not, bad. Avoid murky offshore stablecoins : Regulatory patchwork and dependency risk make them a minefield. 🚀 Final Take This isn’t about crypto speculation—it’s about rebuilding the plumbing of finance on a blockchain backbone. The GENIUS Act is the green light . Stablecoins aren’t a fad—they’re the digital dollar , fully backed, fully auditable, and always on . Get ahead of the pivot—Circle is your ticket. Big banks and card networks need to adapt or collapse . Keep short-dated bond exposure tight, and watch yields play hopscotch. This is more than innovation—it’s financial infrastructure modernization . And the first movers are going to write history. ⚡️**"The Next Electricity Shockwave Is Here—and It’s Not About EVs"** How the AI Arms Race Is Quietly Rewiring the Entire Power Grid—and the Stocks Set to Soar AI ‘Factories’ Are Hungry for Power. Expect ‘Gigawatt-Scale’ Growth. www.barrons.com/articles/ai-factories-data-center-power-growth-1ac52d70?mod=hp_WIND_A_2_4 Articles about AI power generation always get my attention, so I had GPT take a deep dive. Interesting that PWR and MTZ keep coming up. A bit extended for me at the moment. GEV is also, got stopped out of it somewhere along the line and have totally missed this leg up. Hindsight being 20/20 I should have bought it on the dip into the 20 day EMA…. Let me ask you something: What happens when 240 kilowatts of electricity is needed... for a single rack of servers ? That’s not a typo. That’s what Nvidia’s next-gen Rubin chips will demand from every server rack they power. And guess what? There are thousands of those racks going into the next wave of AI data centers—right now. This isn't a tech story . This is a power story . And it’s a $1.4 trillion opportunity in disguise. 🏭 The “AI Factory” Is the New Gigafactory Call them what you want—data centers, inference farms, AI clusters—but Nvidia and Schneider Electric have settled on a more accurate label: AI Factories . Because that’s what they are. Instead of stamping steel or baking semiconductors, these factories generate intelligence —and they’re more power-hungry than anything we’ve seen in modern industrial history. Nvidia’s H200s use 70 kW per rack Blackwell jumps to 132 kW Rubin is coming: 240 kW per rack Schneider is building racks to handle 1,000 kW (1 megawatt!) Multiply that by thousands of racks per factory , then multiply again by the hundreds of facilities in planning across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. The result? According to BofA, U.S. electricity demand will quadruple its growth rate from 0.5% to 2.5% annually between now and 2035. That requires 800 gigawatts of new generation capacity. And a new $1.4 trillion capex cycle. This is the kind of growth utility bulls haven’t dared dream about since the Eisenhower administration. 🧨 The True Source of the Boom This isn’t being driven by EVs. Or climate policy. Or government handouts. It’s being driven by: Nvidia’s annual GPU launches , each doubling compute—and power needs The rise of AI inference (not just training)—which now happens constantly across apps like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Tesla’s autonomous platform Cloud giants and sovereign AI projects all racing to build hundreds of AI factories —with many planned to be gigawatt scale This will trigger the biggest infrastructure buildout in the power sector since the post-WWII era. And investors have no idea. 📈 The Coming Surge: Winners and Losers 🏆 Winners ✅ GE Vernova (GEV) Porter-style punchline: They make the parts that make the electrons flow. GEV is a pure-play on grid equipment, turbines, substations, and industrial-scale control systems. BofA has a $550 target—and it’s probably too low. ✅ Schneider Electric (SU / SCHN.PA ) The “rack builder” of the AI age. They’re not just wiring power—they’re building infrastructure to feed megawatts directly into AI clusters . Now partnered with Nvidia to scale this across Europe. Quiet killer. ✅ Quanta Services (PWR) and MasTec (MTZ) AI-driven grid growth will mean thousands of miles of new high-voltage lines. These are your picks-and-shovels for the new digital frontier. ✅ T&D Infrastructure ETFs Think: IDU, UTES, or create a basket of utility contractors, transformer manufacturers, and high-capacity cable suppliers. 🛑 Losers ❌ Legacy Utilities with No Expansion Plan If you're a regional utility with no capacity growth plan and no exposure to AI-heavy zones (think rural co-ops), you're going to be left behind. Avoid the low-voltage laggards. ❌ Old-School REITs Data center REITs without AI-focused tenants or power delivery innovation are at risk of being leapfrogged. Stick to names building AI-first campuses with megawatt access. 🔍 Why This Is Bigger Than Just Power This is the real AI bottleneck . The chips are here. The models are training. The demand is exploding. But if you can't feed these “factories” power at scale, none of it works . That means the companies that can safely, efficiently, and rapidly expand electricity infrastructure are the ones who will ride the AI tsunami—without needing to pick the next killer app . 🧠 Final Word for the Newsletter Investors spent the last 18 months chasing AI software. But what they missed—what BofA just confirmed—is that AI is as much a utility trade as it is a tech trade . ❝ The grid is becoming the limiting factor. And the companies rebuilding it will print money for the next decade. Don’t wait for the headlines. By the time Wall Street realizes GE Vernova is the Nvidia of power delivery, it’ll already be $800 a share. 🛢️ “The Second Wind for Oil: Why Energy Stocks Could Be 2025’s Most Misunderstood Trade” Natural gas is running hot. Oil is still napping. But the smart money is starting to stir. Energy Stocks Have Had a Mixed Start to 2025. Natural Gas Is Hot and Oil Is Not. www.barrons.com/articles/energy-oil-natural-gas-stocks-ced9622f?mod=hp_FEEDS_1_ENERGY_3 Let me ask you a question: If an entire sector trades at a discount to the S&P , has massive free cash flow , owns critical geopolitical leverage , and just had its biggest ETF inflow in 18 months—should you buy it? Yes. Yes, you should. Because right now, energy is being handed to you at a discount. Again. 🧠 Here's What’s Really Going On The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is beating the S&P 500’s YTD , but that number masks what’s really happening under the surface: Natural gas names and refiners are carrying the index. Oil drillers and services? Still in the doghouse— but undervalued, underloved, and poised to rip. Here’s the scorecard: Winners EQT (nat gas) Valero (refining) Marathon Petroleum Laggards Halliburton APA Occidental Diamondback 🔍 The Why Behind the Divergence 🟢 Natural Gas: Riding the AI/data center tailwind : cooling systems and new generation demand tied to hyperscale growth = big upside for firms like EQT Goldman Sachs calls EQT the best positioned for "cheap scale + data center leverage" Add to that industrial restocking and you’ve got a pricing floor 🛢️ Oil: Sidelined by recession fears OPEC volatility and investor PTSD from 2023–2024 drawdowns Under-owned, underweighted—but trading at 10× forward earnings and producing dividends + buybacks Now add this: ❝ Bank of America says last week marked the biggest ETF inflow into energy since October 2023 —spurred by the Israel-Iran conflict and rising oil prices. In other words, smart money is quietly rotating in —before earnings comps turn favorable and oil catches fire again. 📈 Winners, Losers, and What Comes Next 🏆 Top Stocks Poised to Run (Undervalued Oil Edition) Ticker Company Why It’s a Winner Now FANG Diamondback Energy Best-in-class Permian player, pristine balance sheet, now trades at a discount to historical NAV HAL Halliburton Services lagging, but pricing strength returning; classic late-cycle gainer XOM ExxonMobil Trading at a market multiple with 2× the cash flow, global leverage COP ConocoPhillips Unhedged, shale-focused, pure-play upside on oil rally VLO Valero Already winning, but still trading cheap vs historical P/E; Gulf Coast refining = margin gold ❌ Still Risky Ticker Why You Should Be Cautious APA High debt, international risk, weaker cash gen Service-only micro caps Thin margins, high volatility, little pricing power Non-integrated refiners outside Gulf Lack Gulf margin tailwinds, more exposed to regional crack spread collapse 🔥 The Contrarian Call for 2025 While tech investors are chasing Nvidia’s heat signature, the biggest asymmetric trade may be in the one sector that literally powers everything else : oil and gas. You’ve got rising geopolitical risk . You’ve got undervalued balance sheets and monster buybacks . And you’ve got a growing energy security narrative being adopted by both sides of the aisle. Oh—and the AI boom? It doesn’t run on dreams. It runs on electricity , and that means natural gas and refined product flows are only going up. 🧠 Final Take This isn’t just a bounce trade. This is a multi-year re-rating opportunity . Natural gas names like EQT are already leading—but oil is the catch-up play. Refiners like Valero are getting rewarded for scale and Gulf Coast access. Service names like Halliburton are setting up for a demand surge in late '25. And big oil— XOM, COP, CVX —are all trading like utilities with 6× the upside. ❝ The last time energy was this cheap versus the S&P, it tripled over two years. 💼 Portfolio Moves Overweight Natural Gas : EQT, CTRA, LNG, AR Add to Refiners : VLO, MPC Rebuild E&P positions : FANG, COP, EOG High-conviction contrarian buy : HAL Hedge with oil call spreads or oil-linked ETFs (XOP, OIH, XLE) 🤖 “They’re Coming for the Jobs—But Also for the Alpha” How the robotic AI revolution just became real—and who’s poised to cash in In the last 90 days, you’ve probably seen the headlines: Driverless taxis in London by 2026 Amazon opening a park for AI-powered delivery bots President Trump signing an executive order to make America #1 in drones Let me be blunt: this isn’t science fiction anymore. The robots are real. They’re learning. They’re moving. And this time, they aren’t just cleaning your floor or flipping burgers—they’re gunning for every supply chain, every delivery route, every fulfillment center, and every aging population on Earth. This week, Citi dropped a report titled "The Rise of AI Robots" , and it’s not your usual sell-side puff piece. It reads more like a war manual for capitalists. Because here’s the key stat buried in that report: ❝ By 2050, Citi expects 4 billion robotic AI units deployed globally —with humanoid robots alone becoming a $7 TRILLION market. That’s not a niche. That’s a parallel industrial economy being born in real time. 💥 The Catalysts Are All Lining Up Labor shortages are getting worse in developed nations Moore’s Law has collided with physical mobility AI software has become agentic —not just predictive, but autonomous And now, capital is flooding into robotics faster than it did into SaaS or cloud in the early 2010s So what does that mean for investors like us? It means this isn’t about theory anymore. It’s about who builds the most useful robot the fastest —and which companies own the key platforms and supply chains behind them. 🔍 Winners and Losers 🏆 Winners ✅ Nvidia (NVDA) Let’s stop pretending. Every humanoid robot, drone, or delivery bot runs inference workloads—and they all need GPUs. Rubin (Nvidia’s next chip) will power humanoids with 240 kW racks. That’s not just demand—it’s addiction. ✅ Tesla (TSLA) You want asymmetric optionality? It’s not in EVs anymore. It’s in Optimus —Tesla’s humanoid robot. The company is quietly rebranding itself from EV to robotics AI manufacturing . When Optimus starts doing real-world factory work (expected by 2026), TSLA becomes a robotics platform. ✅ Symbotic (SYM) Already deploying robotic automation at scale inside Walmart and Target warehouses. If humanoids are the next wave, Symbotic is the prequel . And they’re profitable. ✅ Pudu Robotics (private for now) Mentioned by Citi. Focused on service & delivery robots. Expect IPO hype as humanoid narratives grow. ✅ Robot Power Infra: AEHR, ON, AMBA, LSI, STM You want to power, drive, or sense? These semis are in every bot build. Aehr Test Systems is a picks-and-shovels play on chip-level testing for silicon in AI robotics. ✅ Amazon (AMZN) Not for e-commerce. For logistics. Amazon’s "delivery bot park" shows they want to own the last-mile hardware —not just the software. Watch for them to launch their own bot platform. 🔻 Losers ❌ Low-skill labor This is the elephant in the warehouse. Delivery drivers, warehouse pickers, basic service staff— automation has reached the job market’s soft underbelly . ❌ Legacy industrials that don't automate Old-line manufacturers without robotics roadmaps will die a slow death. Think GE without Vernova , or Emerson if they don’t go autonomous. ❌ Robot-as-a-gimmick startups There will be scams. There will be SPACs. Avoid any humanoid play that doesn’t control supply chain or inference logic . Form factor ≠ moat. 🧠 Final Take for the Newsletter ❝ If AI is the brain, robotics is the body. And this year, that body just learned to walk, talk, deliver packages, sweep aisles, and maybe even change Grandma’s IV bag. The humanoid robot market is expected to hit $7 TRILLION by 2050. That’s bigger than electric vehicles . Bigger than smartphones . And the capital is moving fast—because governments now see robotic AI as a geopolitical priority , not a sci-fi headline. You don’t need to bet on the robot that wins. You need to bet on the infrastructure that gets built because they exist . 🔥 What to Do Now Core AI exposure : NVDA, AMZN, TSLA Pure-play robotics : SYM, upcoming IPOs (Pudu) Edge semis & power : AEHR, ON, STM, LSI Optionality basket : Small caps supplying sensors, actuators, batteries, vision modules Watch list : Humanoid IP arms race—figure out who builds real-time vision, locomotion control, and human-interaction firmware How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. 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