브로드컴.AI 칩 슈퍼사이클의 첫 번째 균열?

Broadcom. The First Crack in the AI Chip Supercycle? Xchange NewsletterDecember 09, 2025 | 3 min read Editor's note: Any and all references to time frames longer than one trading day are for purposes of market context only, and not recommendations of any holding time frame. Daily rebalancing ETFs are not meant to be held unmonitored for long periods. If you don't have the resources, time or inclination to constantly monitor and manage your positions, leveraged and inverse ETFs are not for you. Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing directly in AVGO. Broadcom Inc. (Ticker: AVGO) has been one of the strongest semiconductor performers of 2025—but after hitting an all-time high of 386.48 on October 29, the stock has been sliding. For a name so closely tied to the AI infrastructure boom, traders are now asking a critical question: Is AVGO the next leg of the AI trade—or the first domino to wobble? AI Tailwinds and Unmatched Diversification Broadcom still commands a dominant position in the AI supply chain. Its reach spans custom AI accelerators (application-specific integrated circuits, or ASICs), high-performance networking silicon, data-center connectivity, optical components, and enterprise software through its VMware division. Broadcom effectively supplies the plumbing for the generative-AI era: Google’s tensor processing unit (TPU) clusters Meta’s MTIA (Meta Training and Inference Accelerator) Next-generation custom chips for Amazon, Microsoft, and ByteDance Jericho and Tomahawk switch silicon powering 800-gigabit-per-second (800G+) networks Optical digital-signal processors (DSPs) and components supporting 1.6-terabit-per-second (1.6T) data-center architectures More than 70% of Broadcom’s revenue now ties to AI, backed by non-generally-accepted-accounting-principles (non-GAAP) gross margins above 75% and exposure to nearly every major hyperscale cloud provider in the so-called “Magnificent 7.” Recent catalysts reinforce the bull case: Multi-year custom ASIC wins Surging demand for 51.2-terabit switches and 1.6-terabit optical interconnect VMware Cloud Foundation subscription acceleration Analysts projecting AI revenue to triple from roughly $12 billion in fiscal-year 2024 to more than $30 billion by fiscal-year 2027 With total revenue estimates pushing toward $60 billion+ in coming years, traders betting on renewed upside momentum may consider Direxion’s Daily AVGO Bull 2X Shares (Ticker: AVL), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200% of the performance of the common shares of Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO). Below is a daily chart of AVGO as of November 20, 2025. Source: TradingView.com Candlestick charts display the high and low (the stick) and the open and close price (the body) of a security for a specific period. If the body is filled, it means the close was lower than the open. If the body is empty, it means the close was higher than the open. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market Rotation and AI Capex Concerns? Still, even leaders aren’t immune to cycle turns. Several short-term pressures are emerging: AI Capex* Digestion Risk: Investors worry that the AI land-grab buildout may slow in 2026–2027 as hyperscalers absorb capacity rather than add aggressively. Semiconductor Inventory Corrections: Broad-based industry softness and PC/server digestion cycles could spill into non-AI segments. Rising Competition: Marvell, Cisco/Inphi, and Coherent are all ramping up merchant Ethernet and optical offerings. Valuation Stretched: Even after the pullback, AVGO trades around 35x forward earnings, leaving little room for disappointment. Customer Concentration: The top handful of hyperscalers drive the vast majority of Broadcom’s AI revenue—any shift in spending cadence matters. U.S.–China Trade Tensions: Restrictions could weigh on networking, telecom, and semi segments outside AI. All of this funnels into a high-stakes setup ahead of the December 11 earnings report. Bears argue that if: AI revenue growth comes in below the expected +80–100% YoY VMware synergies miss Custom accelerator pipeline commentary cools Or management hints at hyperscaler spending normalization — then AVGO’s recent downtrend could accelerate. In this scenario, Direxion’s Daily AVGO Bear 1X Shares (Ticker: AVS), which seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 100% of the inverse performance in common shares of Broadcom Inc. (Ticker: AVGO) can provide a means to take advantage of more downside. Bottom Line Broadcom sits at the center of the AI infrastructure boom—and its fundamentals remain incredibly strong. But with expectations sky-high and the stock rolling over from all-time highs, the next move hinges on whether AI spending stays blistering or begins to normalize. For traders, AVGO is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal semiconductor earnings events of Q4. * Definitions and Index Descriptions An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. Direxion Shares Risks – An investment in a Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Each Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with a Fund concentrating its investments in a particular security, industry, sector, or geographic region which can result in increased volatility. A Fund’s investments in derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps may pose risks in addition to, and greater than, those associated with directly investing in securities or other investments, including imperfect correlations with underlying investments or the Fund’s other portfolio holdings, higher price volatility and lack of availability. As a result, the value of an investment in a Fund may change quickly and without warning. Leverage Risk – The Bull Fund obtains investment exposure in excess of its net assets by utilizing leverage and may lose more money in market conditions that are adverse to its investment objective than a fund that does not utilize leverage. A total loss may occur in a single day. Leverage will also have the effect of magnifying any differences in the Fund’s correlation with AVGO and may increase the volatility of the Bull Fund. Daily Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bull Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of correlation with AVGO and therefore achieve its daily leveraged investment objective. The Bull Fund’s exposure to AVGO is impacted by AVGO’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bull Fund will be perfectly exposed to AVGO at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bull Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to AVGO increases on days when AVGO is volatile near the close of the trading day. Daily Inverse Correlation Risk – A number of factors may affect the Bear Fund’s ability to achieve a high degree of inverse correlation with AVGO and therefore achieve its daily inverse investment objective. The Bear Fund’s exposure to AVGO is impacted by AVGO’s movement. Because of this, it is unlikely that the Bear Fund will be perfectly exposed to AVGO at the end of each day. The possibility of the Bear Fund being materially over- or under-exposed to AVGO increases on days when AVGO is volatile near the close of the trading day. Broadcom Inc. – AVGO faces risks associated with: the highly competitive nature of the semiconductor industry; failure to realize expected benefits from mergers, acquisitions and other joint ventures; economic and market uncertainty; reduced demand for its products; potential concentration of revenues in a few large clients; geopolitical and economic events and pandemics; among other risks. Semiconductor Industry Risk – Semiconductor companies may face intense competition, both domestically and internationally, may have limited product lines, markets, financial resources or personnel and may face risks related to the availability of materials. Information Technology Sector Risk — The value of stocks of information technology companies and companies that rely heavily on technology is particularly vulnerable to rapid changes in technology product cycles, rapid product obsolescence, government regulation, and competition, both domestically and internationally, including competition from competitors with lower production cost. Additional risks of each Fund include Effects of Compounding and Market Volatility Risk, Derivatives Risk, Counterparty Risk, Rebalancing Risk, Intra-Day Investment Risk, Industry Concentration Risk, Market Risk, Indirect Investment Risk, and Cash Transaction Risk. Additionally, for the Direxion Daily AVGO Bear 1X Shares, Shorting or Inverse Risk. Please see the summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of these and other risks of a Fund. Related Funds Direxion Daily AVGO Bull 2X and Bear 1X Shares Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bull and Bear 2X Shares Direxion Daily Robotics, Artificial Intelligence & Automation Index Bull 2X Shares Related Posts Top 5 Energy Titans: Cash Machines or Out of Gas? Netflix’s Drift: Bullish Reset or Bearish Sequel? Top 5 Semis Are Hot. But Can the Circuit Hold? Read More Xchanges Bond Villains, Oil Heroes, and a Fed Plot Twist DRIP GUSH ...Jan 16, 2026 | 3 min read January’s Fed meeting may hold rates steady, but messaging, bonds, and oil markets could spark volatility. Here’s what traders are watching. An Apple a Day… or One Bad Headline Away? AAPD AAPUJan 12, 2026 | 3 min read Apple trades near record highs as iPhone strength clashes with AI delays, regulation, and valuation risk. Here’s what bulls and bears are watching now. 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