나쁜 일자리 = 좋은 소식?연준이 궁지에 몰릴 수 있는 이유

Bad Jobs = Good News? Why the Fed May Be Cornered THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Bad Jobs = Good News? Why the Fed May Be Cornered Bad Jobs = Good News? Why the Fed May Be Cornered The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle Jun 5, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF Our Next Webinar— - Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Bad Jobs = Good News? Why the Fed May Be Cornered Drones, Defense, and the Next Trump Executive Order – The Coming Boom in the “Sky War” Economy Wells Unleashed: The $400 Billion Threat to Regional Banks and more…….. Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf Cash from Corruption: Profiting Off Washington’s Grift Machine Thu, Jun 26, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT - Two strategies to tap into Washington's grift with limited risk and unlimited upside - How to use AI to recognize the next top themes before the "smart money" does. - My simple hedging strategy that takes advantage of the real "dumb money" on Wall Street To register: register.gotowebinar.com/register/8214490301707453020 Bad Jobs = Good News? Why the Fed May Be Cornered Weak ADP data put a damper on the market a bit yesterday. Bond yields fell as traders no doubt thought this might force the Fed’s hand. Still staying away from bonds at the moment as I worry that the fiscal situation puts a cap on any gains. You also have to wonder how much impact the tariff uncertainty will have on the Fed’s timing. So we watch Friday’s jobs report with great interest as a weaker than expected number could be a game changer. Kind of agree with Mohit here, path of least resistance for stocks does seem to be up. I’ve been back to putting small amounts of money to work each day, trying to find the next big theme. ❝ For risky assets, both valuation and macro would argue for caution. Our base case is one of slowing down in the data over coming months. However, the one factor that continues to argue in favour of risky assets is positioning. Our indices suggest that positioning is still mild which would be a tailwind for risky assets. With cash sitting on the sideline, we see the path of least resistance as still higher for risky assets. Mohit Kumar, Jefferies The Trump’s Inner Circle theme has taken some bumps. You have to wonder if Elon is still in the inner circle…. Trump Is Losing Patience With Musk’s Outbursts Over Megabill Billionaire’s attacks on Trump’s tax bill are fraying his relationship with the president www.wsj.com/politics/policy/elon-musk-trump-tax-spending-republicans-5b779d6b?mod=hp_lead_pos4 I exited TSLA when it broke the 10 day anyway. CLBR has also gotten crushed the past two days (top holding in SPCX )… Just remember…. — # (# ) Speaking of the next theme, I think it could be drones (more below). One name that spans the Trump’s Inner Circle and drone themes is UMAC….. From GPT….. ❝ Yes, Donald Trump Jr. is officially a member of the advisory board at Unusual Machines Inc. (NYSE American: UMAC), a U.S.-based drone and drone components manufacturer. His appointment was announced on November 27, 2024, and he is also reported to be the company's second-largest shareholder, holding over 330,000 shares. Unusual Machines is positioning itself as a key player in the U.S. drone industry, focusing on domestic manufacturing to reduce reliance on foreign-made products, particularly from China. The company has recently launched products like the Brave F7 FPV Flight Controller and aims to be a dominant Tier-1 parts supplier in the growing U.S. drone market. Trump Jr.'s involvement aligns with the company's mission to bring drone manufacturing jobs back to the USA and strengthen domestic supply chains. His role is expected to provide strategic advice and leverage his business network to support Unusual Machines' growth and expansion in the drone sector. Given the increasing emphasis on domestic drone production and the geopolitical focus on reducing dependence on Chinese technology, Unusual Machines, with Trump Jr.'s backing, could be well-positioned to benefit from potential future executive orders or policies aimed at bolstering the U.S. drone industry. U.S. Is Redirecting Critical Antidrone Technology From Ukraine to U.S. Forces Move underscores Trump administration’s waning commitment to providing military aid to Kyiv www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/us-halts-ukraine-anti-drone-russia-ce0b5b75?mod=hp_lead_pos10 Drones, Defense, and the Next Trump Executive Order – The Coming Boom in the “Sky War” Economy “The age of the drone is no longer coming—it’s here. And it’s about to become the most investable corner of defense tech since the invention of GPS.” That’s the story behind the Trump administration’s quiet redirection of critical antidrone technology from Ukraine to U.S. forces. It’s not just a geopolitical pivot—it’s a flashing neon sign that drones, and the systems designed to counter them, are now central to U.S. defense planning. And it points to one unmistakable trend: the drone-industrial complex is about to enter hyperdrive. 🛰 The Real Takeaway From Trump’s Fuze Transfer On the surface, this looks like Washington bureaucracy playing favorites. But under the hood, what’s happening is far more telling: ❝ The Pentagon is deprioritizing Ukraine and rearming U.S. forces in the Middle East with Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems —retrofit rocket tech designed to neutralize drones cheaply and quickly. This pivot signals that: Trump’s next executive order could directly address drone production, countermeasures, or export acceleration . The Middle East , not Ukraine, is now the primary theater for drone warfare. The U.S. military is preparing for drone saturation scenarios —think Houthi and Iranian swarms, not just rogue strikes. ⚠️ The Coming Drone Crisis — And Windfall While AI gets all the headlines, drones are the overlooked power play in both AI warfare and defense modernization . Just like semiconductors in the AI boom, drones are about to become the bottleneck in the modern battlefield. And that spells opportunity for early investors who know where to look. The systems being redirected—like the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) with proximity fuzes —are cheap, scalable, and exactly what the DoD wants more of. They’re already being mounted on F-16s and F-15s for one reason: sidewinder missiles are too expensive . 🧨 Winners: The Drone Arms Race Beneficiaries Here’s who benefits directly as Trump pivots toward drones and hypersonics: Company Ticker Role Rating Anduril Private (watch IPO) Antidrone & autonomous defense platforms 🔟 Kratos Defense KTOS Drone swarm tech, hypersonics, and directed energy systems 9 AeroVironment AVAV Loitering munitions (Switchblade drones), ISR 8.5 Teledyne FLIR TDY Drone sensors, surveillance, thermal optics 8 Lockheed Martin LMT Integrator of drone systems & interceptors (SkyKeeper, Valkyrie) 8 Northrop Grumman NOC Long-range surveillance drones, ISR 7.5 RTX RTX Interceptor tech & radar systems (e.g. GhostEye MR) 7 Wildcard: Palantir (PLTR) —AI-enabled drone analytics, battlefield automation (7. • 5) ❌ Losers: Left Behind by the Drone Surge Company Sector Why They Lose European defense firms (e.g. BAE, Thales) NATO delays, no drone production focus General Dynamics Traditional armored vehicle-heavy portfolio Legacy missile-only suppliers Losing ground to lower-cost drone countermeasures 🧭 What Comes Next: Executive Order Watch There is a growing likelihood that Trump’s next executive order targets drone supply chains . Why? The administration already named drones a strategic priority via DARPA and DoD planning. Current capacity can’t meet projected demand across U.S. bases, allies, and export partners. Swarm attacks in the Red Sea, Ukraine, and potentially Taiwan make this a 2025 issue—not 2030. 🎯 Final Take Betting against drones in this cycle is like shorting semiconductors in 1993. This isn’t just about Ukraine or Iran. It’s about a new doctrine of warfare built on autonomy, swarm intelligence, and precision kill-chains. And the U.S. just tipped its hand: we’re going all-in. The right stocks—those that make the platforms, fuzes, optics, AI overlays, and sensors—could double or triple over the next 12–24 months as DoD spending accelerates and allies rush to catch up. The war of the future won’t be fought with tanks. It’ll be fought with airborne software. Now’s the time to position. Wells Unleashed: The $400 Billion Threat to Regional Banks As you know I’m not a fan of regional banks, so this caught my eye… Wells Fargo just got a green light from the Fed to grow. Here’s what it means for its business and its stock. Wells Fargo & Co. has cleared a major obstacle to its growth plans, opening the way for the bank to grow after years of restrictions related to its fake-accounts scandal. www.marketwatch.com/story/wells-fargo-just-got-a-green-light-from-the-fed-to-grow-heres-what-it-means-for-its-business-and-its-stock-ecde4650?mod=home_invest I had GPT analyze this and interestingly it suggested shorting regional banks (KRE), hard to say if it came to that conclusion on it’s own or it knows me so well and knew I would want it to say that though :) SKRE - Inverse Regional Banks ETF | Innovative Investment Strategy Explore SKRE, the Inverse Regional Banks ETF offering a unique investment strategy with -200% daily performance of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF. Ideal for navigating volatile markets. www.shortregionalbanks.com Wells Fargo just got its muzzle removed—and regional banks should be very worried. 🚨 The Sleeping Giant Awakens After nearly seven years under a Federal Reserve-imposed asset cap, Wells Fargo (WFC) has been unleashed. The restriction, imposed in 2018 following a series of scandals, limited the bank’s total assets to around $1.95 trillion. This meant that as the rest of the U.S. banking system absorbed hundreds of billions in deposits—especially during COVID stimulus waves and last year’s regional banking scare—Wells sat on the sidelines. Now the leash is off. 💥 Implications for Regional Banks Wells Fargo is one of the few banks in America with the brand, balance sheet, and branch footprint to pose an existential threat to regionals—and it just got permission to start punching again. From 2019 to 2024, regional banks added $1 trillion in deposits. Wells? Just $5% growth—far below the industry. Had it matched national growth, it could’ve added more than $400 billion. Guess where that money is coming from now? With the Fed shrinking its balance sheet and no new stimulus coming, new deposits must come from competitors. Regional banks, which rely heavily on deposit spreads for profits and don’t have large investment banking arms, will be the first to feel the pressure. Expect a brutal repricing war for retail deposits—especially as Wells ramps up its push into cash-rich corporate and investment clients. 🔥 Why This Matters Now In 2023, the regional banking crisis triggered by SVB’s collapse taught us how fragile deposit confidence can be. With Wells now free to offer better terms, slicker digital tools, and more attractive corporate banking solutions, smaller banks could see an exodus of sticky deposits —the lifeblood of their balance sheets. Wells’s strategy is likely to prioritize: Retail deposits: They’re sticky and cost-effective. Corporate cash management: Where Wells can now aggressively court big clients. Investment banking cross-sell: Now possible with asset growth unchained. 🏆 Winners and Losers Stock/Entity Rating Comment WFC ✅ 9/10 Now free to scale deposit base, gain share across retail and corporate, improve margins. JPM, BAC, C ⚖️ 6/10 Neutral. Face more competition from Wells, but less vulnerable than regionals. CFG, RF, FITB, KEY (regionals) ⚠️ 4/10 At risk of deposit erosion and tighter NIMs. TFC, PNC, MTB 🚨 3/10 Regionals with heavy reliance on interest spread revenue, vulnerable to Wells’s aggressive pricing. 💡 Strategic Takeaway for Investors With WFC back in the game, regional bank consolidation could accelerate as smaller players struggle to retain depositors and maintain profitability. For investors, this is a wake-up call: Trim or hedge regional bank exposure. Reallocate toward large-cap banks with room to grow, like Wells, which now has both a defensive and offensive position. Consider inverse or leveraged ETFs tied to regional banks, such as $KRE , as a tactical hedge. In short: The Fed’s artificial lid on Wells Fargo created a deposit vacuum that helped keep regionals alive. That lid is gone—and the competition is about to get very real. Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Wealth Management-Coming Soon Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0