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Are We Close to a Trade Deal With China? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Are We Close to a Trade Deal With China? Are We Close to a Trade Deal With China? The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle Apr 24, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: Launching 2x GME and 2x SNOW Louis Navellier on the Rebel Podcast Trump’s Plan for the Economy and How it Impacts Your Investments Today Why this market is so tough Are we close to a trade deal with China? Why low volatility ETFs suck Deep dive on Agentic AI and more…….. Announcements Today we launch 2x GME (GMEU) and 2x SNOW (SNOU) At 11:30AM EST the Rebel Finance Podcast will have Louis Navellier as our guest. Anyone old like me will remember Louis. Our Webinar is Also Today Trump’s Plan For the Economy and How It Impacts Your Investments Thursday April 24, 2-3pm EST Register Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf News & Noise 🧠 News: — # (# ) Oklo In Talks To Supply Energy To OpenAI, Prompting Sam Altman To Step Down | ZeroHedge ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero www.zerohedge.com/markets/oklo-talks-supply-energy-openai-prompting-sam-altman-step-down — # (# ) Silver could finally be a better investment opportunity than gold, some analysts say President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement didn’t just shake up global stock markets, it rattled the outlook for the economy and disrupted silver’s chance to outperform gold. Silver, however, may soon get another shot. www.marketwatch.com/story/silvercould-finally-be-a-better-investment-opportunity-thangold-some-analysts-say-1206aa7a?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1_B_3&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D55520343296879709753576722144394324307%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1745490970&_gl=1rj9m50_gcl_auMTczODg1OTc4Ni4xNzQyMjkxMDg0_gaNTEwMDU1MzY4LjE3MTg3OTYzMzc._ga_K2H7B9JRSS*MTc0NTQ5MDk1My4zMzkuMC4xNzQ1NDkwOTUzLjYwLjAuMA.. ❌ Noise: Has bitcoin halving lost its mojo? The crypto sees its worst ever post-halving performance. It’s been a year since bitcoin’s last halving. Investors expected the crypto’s price to skyrocket, but bitcoin has posted the worst post-halving performance in history. www.marketwatch.com/story/has-bitcoin-halving-lost-its-mojo-the-crypto-sees-its-worst-ever-post-halving-performance-af9ff71b?mod=home_lead Gold prices plunge in biggest one-day drop in years. Is the record rally over? Gold suffered its biggest one-day drop in nearly four years Wednesday, raising questions about whether a torrid rally driven by anxiety over President Trump’s trade policies can continue. www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-prices-plunge-in-biggest-one-day-drop-in-years-is-the-record-rally-over-60a2f3cf?mod=home_lead What Wall Street Is Saying We are going to have a lot more to say about this deal, stay tuned. Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading….. ❝ One has to wonder why Xi Jinping would even come to the table at this juncture. Xi does not have to worry about the stock market, midterm elections, appropriating stimulus, and he is his own Jay Powell. All of these tariff “ developments ” are occurring while China has maintained the simple position that it will “fight to the end.” Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments yesterday that the trade situation with China is “ unsustainable ” and equates to an “ embargo ” has fueled equity strength with the expectation that the Trump Administration would be forced to fold its hand. Mohit Kumar, Jefferies….. ❝ Reports suggest that Trump administration is looking at tariffs in the range of 50% - 65% for China with 35% for non-critical imports and 100% on imports that are deemed critical for national security. In our view, the numbers are far from the point which would be acceptable to China. Jefferies Daily Macro…. ❝ From a market perspective, our strategy has been to use rallies to reduce US exposure and yesterday was one of those days. Our medium-term view remains to use any rallies to reduce US exposure and use any sell-offs to add to Europe and Asia. UBS Equity Strategy….. ❝ The market is pricing toward a recessionary regime (33% recent peak in our models). Our framework leans into this with an ongoing preference for defensives over discretionary. Are We Close to a Trade Deal With China? — # (# ) Tuesday night Trump came out and said that tariffs on China will be less than what had previously been reported. Markets took it as capitulation by Trump, then today Bessent says the above. This caused markets to close way off the highs, but it was a rally day pretty much regardless of what happened. China says no ongoing trade talks with the U.S., calls for canceling 'unilateral' tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week indicated that there might be an easing in tensions with China. www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/china-says-no-talks-with-the-us-on-trade-calls-for-canceling-unilateral-tariffs.html Scott Bessent says US will not make unilateral offer to China on tariffs Treasury secretary denies reports Washington will make unilateral cuts to tariffs www.ft.com/content/475d61e6-0d9a-43a6-86b6-9248f455451e Are we close to a deal or not? No idea. I continue to say I think the lows are in, I think this market is tradeable, but it’s a pain in the ass. Stuff like this is also a pain in the ass….. — # (# ) I am continuing to slowly add equity exposure. I often compare investing to Blackjack and Poker, and in Blackjack I slowly ramp up my bet size when the dealer seems to have a run of going bust. Same deal here, as I said above, I do think the lows are in, and it looks like things are starting to turn bullish. I think a lot of that is because the main messaging is now coming from Bessent and not Lutnick or Navarro…. — # (# ) However, we are nowhere near being able to say the odds are in your favor to go long in any size. Gold is back up this morning, Treasuries are up, and Bitcoin is selling off a drop. My main focus is still in those three areas. Trump’s climbdown against the Fed looks very bullish for bonds A slowing economy, an independent Fed: What’s not to like? www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-climbdown-against-the-fed-looks-very-bullish-for-bonds-481d56c9?mod=home_lead GOOGL kicks off Mag 7 earnings tonight. Are Low Volatility ETFs a Smart Long-Term Bet? Had CNBC on in the background the other day and they couldn’t stop gushing about low volatility ETFs. Low volatility is a factor, something along with some other factors —-momentum, quality, value, etc that was discovered in research to have outperformed the market over time. I’m not a fan of factor investing, primarily because I think once Wall Street discovers and edge then it gets arbed out and is no longer an edge. I had GPT take a deeper dive on low volatility……. 🌟 The Narrative: Low Volatility ETFs Are Having Their Moment In 2025, low volatility ETFs like $SPLV and $USMV have been outperforming broader market cap-weighted benchmarks. Why? Because: They hold tariff-insulated, domestic-facing stocks They avoid much of the Magnificent 7 (which are more exposed to AI capex cycles and global trade uncertainty) Investors are rotating defensively amid volatility, trade war risk, and Fed drama But here's the problem: They’ve massively underperformed over longer timeframes . 🧨 Low Volatility ETFs – What Are They, Really? Low volatility ETFs track baskets of stocks with historically lower price fluctuations , typically measured via standard deviation. These ETFs include: $SPLV (Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF) $USMV (iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF) $XMLV, $EFAV, $XSLV and others across geographies and sectors They tend to be: Overweight utilities, staples, healthcare, REITs Underweight tech, discretionary, communication services Lower beta and lower drawdowns , but also lower upside participation 🌐 2025 YTD Snapshot: Low Volatility Winning Vol-sensitive traders are seeking shelter from tariff noise and Powell-Trump chaos These ETFs are less exposed to global cyclicals , semis , and China-sensitive megacaps 🧠 But the Long-Term? Low Vol Has Lagged Over the past 10 years: $SPLV has underperformed SPY by nearly 50% cumulatively Sharpe ratios are often lower than expected due to performance drag in bull markets They tend to lag in growth-driven environments , reflation cycles , and innovation booms 🔎 The Real Problem: Factor Arbitrage ❝ "Once a factor is discovered and widely adopted, the alpha gets arbed out." — Matt Tuttle Low volatility used to be an obscure anomaly. Now it’s a $50B+ asset class. Factor investors, quant funds, and retail allocators have piled in. This inflows=alpha decay dynamic has: Compressed the valuation edge Crowded the trade (especially in defensive sectors) Made it more sensitive to macro sentiment shifts and interest rate cycles Once "low vol" becomes consensus, it starts acting more like a bond proxy than an alpha source. 🌐 So What Do We Do? 🔋 Tactical Suggestions: Use Low Volatility ETFs for Short-Term Defense Only Great for uncertain macro regimes (like • 2025) But treat them as trades, not long-term allocations Overlay With Tail Risk or Smart Beta Hedges Add ARKK or QQQ puts to protect against equity shocks Combine with gold, Bitcoin, or commodities as structural hedges Replace With Quality + Value + Low Debt Screens Instead of blindly chasing low vol, build custom baskets of: High free cash flow Low debt-to-equity Domestic-revenue-heavy stocks Avoid heavy bond proxy exposure Long/Short Low Vol vs High Beta Pairs Consider a factor rotation play: Long $SPLV, short $SPHB when vol is rising Reverse that in soft-landing or reflation environments Revisit When Macro Shifts If rate volatility collapses and risk appetite returns, low vol will lag hard Be ready to pivot back to cyclicals, AI, and global growth 🏛 Final Word: Low Volatility Isn't a Hedge. It's a Trade. If you're buying $SPLV or $USMV thinking you're being defensive and smart, you might just be buying a different type of beta. ❝ Use it when the odds are in your favor. Fold when they’re not. The best strategy in a high-vol, policy-fractured market? Flexibility. AI Agents and the Intelligent Software Economy ARK just wrote a report on AI agents, an area of great interest to me and one where we have an ETF coming soon. AI Agents And The Intelligent Software Economy ARK’s active strategies like the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW), the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG), and the ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX) are designed to capture these transformative shifts as AI agents reshape software, productivity, and value creation across industries. The companies and sectors prepared to integrate these powerful agents today will lead tomorrow’s economy. www.ark-funds.com/articles/etf/ai-agents-and-the-intelligent-software-economy?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8m3qceCYlf8j64Tec-IRt-jVZbNDyBFfmaLKRU9RfPSyzGjyUjcLGrrx4H4k9xSZOzx17g9Kk2RAP1SnEDhZ9IJp2X22xJe1ck5dlNOBNXlizo_YI&_hsmi=358108700&utm_content=358108700&utm_source=hs_email One of the powerful uses of AI is to have it analyze research reports like this, provide take aways, and create watch lists, so I fed it into GPT and had it analyze this report…. 🤖 ARK's Bold Take: AI Agents Will Reshape Everything ARK's latest research lays out a sweeping thesis: AI agents aren't just another layer on top of software—they're a full-blown paradigm shift. Think cloud computing in 2007. Think smartphones in 2010. AI agents could have that kind of impact across enterprise software , consumer applications , and R&D workflows . ARK defines AI agents as autonomous systems capable of: Interpreting natural language Independently reasoning and executing tasks Continuously learning and adapting The economic implications? Massive. ARK suggests we could see the largest software reinvention since the cloud . 🔍 Where We Agree 1. Enterprise AI Agents Will Replace "One-Size-Fits-None" Software ARK highlights Palantir (PLTR) as the poster child for customizable enterprise AI platforms. We agree. AIP is already helping governments and corporations build internal agents that automate logistics, detect fraud, and model risk. This isn’t future state—it’s happening now. 2. Agent-Based Consumer Apps Are Inevitable From Shopify (SHOP) to Klarna , AI agents that combine search, recommendation, and execution are making old-school apps look clunky. The migration from static apps to proactive digital assistants is just beginning. 3. Scientific Discovery Will Be the Next Frontier Biotech and drug discovery are ripe for AI agents. Companies like Recursion (RXRX) and Absci (ABSI) are already redefining the speed and cost of drug development. ARK is right: traditional pharma is getting left behind. 📊 --- Winners and Losers: Ranked 1–10 🏆 Top Winners: (10 = massive AI agent upside) Rank Ticker Company Score Why It Wins 1 RXRX Recursion 10 AI-native biotech. Running billions of biological simulations with NVIDIA + Roche backing. Just merged with Exscientia. 2 PLTR Palantir 9.5 Government and enterprise OS for agents. Deep data integration + workflow AI. First-mover advantage. 3 ABSI Absci 9.0 Zero-shot antibody design = faster, cheaper, better drug discovery. Potential to leapfrog Big Pharma. 4 GTLB GitLab 8.5 AI-native DevOps platform. Agents already coding, debugging, and testing autonomously. 5 SHOP Shopify 8.0 Integrating AI search + transactions via Perplexity + Shop Pay. Enabling autonomous e-commerce. 6 TEM Tempus AI 7.5 AI in diagnostics + clinical trials. Verticalized medical data = durable moat. Recent IPO adds visibility. 7 OPENAI (private) OpenAI 7.5 Dominant in agent framework APIs. ChatGPT + dev ecosystem = viral data flywheel. 8 EXAI Exscientia 7.0 AI chemistry + modeling platform. Now merged with Recursion. Synergy unlocks new scale. 9 COIN Coinbase 6.5 Leader in integrating AI-driven interfaces into crypto trading + custody. Benefits from agent-based financial autonomy. 10 Klarna (private) Klarna 6.0 Shopping agents tied to LLMs. Early mover in AI + fintech convergence. ❌ Potential Losers Company Why It Falls Behind SAP / ORCL Traditional ERP software lacks agentic architecture. Slow to innovate, vulnerable to PLTR-style disruption. Legacy Pharma (PFE, MRK) Too slow to pivot to AI-native drug discovery. Will likely license from RXRX/ABSI vs build in-house. Old-school consumer apps Clunky UX, fragmented functionality, no proactive intelligence. Agents will cannibalize this space fast. 📈 Monetization Models to Watch Agent-as-a-Service (AaaS) : Subscriptions with usage-based overages (Replit-style) Autonomous Commerce : Agents complete transactions on your behalf (e.g., travel, groceries, investing) Agent Marketplaces : Think App Store for intelligent tasks and workflows These will reshape everything from SaaS pricing to e-commerce to enterprise licensing. 🏛 Takeaway AI agents aren’t an extension of software. They are a replacement. They will redefine what software means in every vertical Investors should focus on AI-native platforms (not incumbents trying to bolt on LLMs) Biotech, enterprise, and consumer commerce will be the early monetization zones ❝ If the cloud unlocked scale, AI agents will unlock autonomy. Before you go: Here are ways I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Wealth Management-Coming Soon Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0