AI의 다음 병목 현상은 컴퓨팅이 아닙니다.구리입니다.

AI’s Next Bottleneck Isn’t Compute. It’s Copper. THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts AI’s Next Bottleneck Isn’t Compute. It’s Copper. AI’s Next Bottleneck Isn’t Compute. It’s Copper. Jan 12, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily --- H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. ❝ I’m hosting a webinar entitled “Why Covered Call ETFs Suck and What to Do Instead” (More Info Below) January 15 2-3pm. Sign Up Here Table of Contents --- H.E.A.T. Copper Is the Prize in Mining Megadeals: What This … The clean causal chain 2025 rewarded “AI exposure.” 2026 rewards “AI inputs with scarcity + pricing po … Winners, losers, and second-order winners First-order winners (paid first) Second-order winners (paid because miners must spe … Likely losers (or at least “harder tape”) The big takeaway What I’d watch next (the checklist) --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today --- A Stock I’m Watching --- In Case You Missed It Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead --- H.E.A.T. Copper Is the Prize in Mining Megadeals Rio Tinto-Glencore merger talks underscore the growing demand for copper, driven in part by AI www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/copper-is-the-prize-in-mining-megadeals-355247d7?mod=finance_lead_story Copper Is the Prize in Mining Megadeals: What This Tells You About the AI Trade Here’s the tell: when mining CEOs start talking “mega-mergers,” they aren’t chasing ego — they’re chasing copper. The Rio Tinto–Glencore talks are the headline, but copper is the plot. Why? Because AI isn’t just a software revolution — it’s an electricity revolution … and electricity is a copper-intensive business. Data centers don’t run on “tokens.” They run on power delivery, transformers, switchgear, cabling, grounding, cooling systems, and grid upgrades — all of which quietly pull copper demand forward. The credible long-range math is ugly: S&P Global’s work frames a world where copper demand rises toward ~42 million metric tons by 2040 (~+50% vs today) , driven by electrification plus new load (including data centers). And the supply side doesn’t cooperate on a neat timeline — because copper isn’t like software. You can’t “ship an update.” You have to permit it, finance it, dig it, process it, and move it … which is why S&P Global also highlights a looming multi‑million‑ton supply gap if investment doesn’t accelerate. That’s why deals are back. M&A is the market admitting it doesn’t have time : new mines take a long time, grades are declining in key basins, and the world is simultaneously trying to ( • 1) electrify transportation, ( • 2) rebuild grids, ( • 3) build AI factories, and ( • 4) spend more on defense — all copper-heavy activities. The “AI trade” is no longer just Nvidia and friends. It’s the whole physical stack beneath the cloud. The clean causal chain AI capex + electrification + defense → grid buildout + data centers → copper demand pull-forward → supply can’t respond quickly → prices/asset values rise → miners consolidate to lock resources And the investing implication is simple: 2025 rewarded “AI exposure.” 2026 rewards “AI inputs with scarcity + pricing power.” Copper is one of the most important of those inputs. Winners, losers, and second-order winners First-order winners (paid first) • 1) Copper-heavy miners & developers (the owners of the scarce asset) If the market is entering a multi-year “copper scarcity premium,” the first-order winners are the miners with: high-quality copper reserves, expandable operations, and credible development pipelines. Watchlist buckets (examples): Large diversified miners re-rating toward copper: $RIO, $BHP, $GLNCY/$GLEN (Glencore) Copper-heavy producers: $FCX, $SCCO, $TECK Chile/Peru copper torque (higher beta): $ANTO.L (Antofagasta) / ADR equivalents where applicable • 2) “U.S. copper” becomes strategic Copper being treated more like a strategic material (not just a commodity) matters. The USGS has been moving toward a “critical minerals” framing that can influence permitting, financing incentives, and political will. If that accelerates, domestic copper projects get a narrative tailwind (and sometimes real policy support). Second-order winners (paid because miners must spend) This is where a lot of people miss the trade. If copper is tight, miners don’t just print money — they spend money. And that spending flows to the “arms dealers” of mining. • 1) Mining equipment & mine-services (the copper capex toll collectors) Heavy equipment, trucks, loaders, autonomous haulage Drilling, blasting, processing equipment Maintenance and modernization Watchlist examples: $CAT (equipment) $ SAND.ST / $ EPIA.ST (Sandvik/Epiroc) (non‑US listings) $METSO (processing/flowsheets) (non‑US listing/ADR variants) • 2) Engineering & buildout ecosystem (the “we build the mine” trade) If the world tries to close a copper supply gap, it requires: EPC work power/water infrastructure roads/rail/ports permitting, environmental, compliance Watchlist examples: $FLR (EPC exposure; highly cycle/contract dependent) Specialty contractors can matter here (more idiosyncratic) • 3) Scrap + recycling (the stealth winner if prices stay high) High prices pull supply from the shadows. Scrap collection gets incentivized. Recycling capacity becomes more valuable. (This tends to be a quieter but real second-order effect.) Likely losers (or at least “harder tape”) • 1) Copper-intensive manufacturers with weak pass-through If copper stays elevated, somebody eats it. The losers are the businesses that can’t pass through input inflation quickly , especially those with fixed-price contracts or intense competition. Pressure points: certain industrial components certain appliance/consumer electronics supply chains lower-end construction inputs • 2) Data center build costs rise (even if AI demand is booming) Copper is part of the data center bill of materials, and grid interconnect is copper-heavy. If copper trends higher, it makes “AI capex” more expensive , which tightens ROI math and can pressure: hyperscaler capex efficiency narratives colocation build economics marginal AI projects (Important nuance: this doesn’t kill AI — it changes who captures the economics.) • 3) Smelters/refiners can be a “depends” trade When concentrate is tight, treatment charges can compress (bad for smelters), but tight markets can also produce dislocations/opportunities. This bucket is more microstructure and contract-driven than the “own the mine” trade. The big takeaway The Rio–Glencore headline is just a symptom. The disease (for buyers) / opportunity (for owners) is bigger: Copper is becoming a strategic constraint. And the moment a commodity becomes a constraint, it stops trading like a commodity and starts trading like a bottleneck. What I’d watch next (the checklist) More miner M&A (especially anything that increases copper weighting) Capex guidance from copper producers (are they actually funding new supply, or just buying it?) Permitting + policy language (copper as “critical” changes the timeline narrative) Demand confirmation from AI + grids (copper is the physical proof that “AI is real economy now”) --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today A lot of data this week, and a lot going on over the weekend. This week we have CPI and PPI, and bank earnings start. Typically not a fan of banks, but they’ve been kicking ass lately. On the policy front, Trump is proposing to lower credit card interest rates to 10%. We said last week that with the midterms looming he’s going to do whatever he can to tackle affordability. Then you had this…. Fed Chair Powell says he's under criminal investigation, won't bow to Trump intimidation President Donald Trump has criticized Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates as much and as quickly as the president wants. www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/fed-jerome-powell-criminal-probe-nyt.html This could actually backfire on Trump and keep Powell around longer. Futures were down a bit before this got announced, they are down much more now. Rates are higher, and financials are getting crushed (credit card thing doesn’t help them either). Precious metals are rallying and Bitcoin is holding above 90K. --- A Stock I’m Watching Today’s stock is The Trade Desk (TTD)…… After a bruising 2025 for a lot of ad tech, TTD is shaping up as one of the cleaner “AI + operating leverage” rebounds if digital ad demand stays resilient. The core bull case isn’t “ads are back” — it’s that Connected TV keeps taking share and brands increasingly want independent, cross-publisher measurement and decisioning rather than living inside a single walled garden. TTD is one of the few scaled platforms positioned as the neutral layer across premium CTV supply, open internet display/video, and (increasingly) retail data partnerships. If you believe the next leg of advertising is algorithmic budget allocation across channels (with creative, audience, and bidding decisions happening in real time), then TTD is one of the most direct public-market expressions of that shift. Why 2026 could look better than the tape implies: Two tailwinds matter: ( • 1) the “product digestion” risk from last year’s platform transition (Kokai rollout issues / workflow change) should fade as customers normalize usage and the company laps tougher comps, and ( • 2) the calendar improves — major events plus a ramp into the midterm cycle can create real incremental dollars, especially in CTV and programmatic. Importantly, TTD’s opportunity isn’t just cyclical ad recovery; it’s mix shift toward higher-value inventory (CTV) where identity/measurement/optimization matter more, and where “who can drive outcomes” wins share over time. What we’re watching (the tells): The bull case gets validated if we see (a) accelerating spend from large agencies/brands as Kokai becomes a default workflow (not a pilot), (b) continued CTV share gains with improving monetization and measurement (less “experiment,” more “budget line item”), and (c) proof that retail data + identity solutions are driving incrementality without margin erosion. The bear case is basically: walled gardens compress the open-internet take, CTV supply stays fragmented/opaque, or advertisers pull back and TTD’s operating leverage works in reverse. Net: TTD is a “watch closely” name because if execution is clean, it can re-rate quickly — but the stock will only earn that re-rating if the product transition shows up in spend acceleration and not just good narrative. --- In Case You Missed It ❝ These 2 new ETFs from TappAlpha (TDAX and TSYX) just launched and I'm pretty excited about them! In this video I break down what these funds are, why they're catching my attention, and how I think they could potentially perform over the next year or so :) How Else I Can Help You Beat Wall Street at Its Own Game Inside --- H.E.A.T. is our monthly webinar series, sign up for this month’s webinar below…. Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead Thursday January 15, 2-3PM EST Covered call ETFs are everywhere — and everyone thinks they’ve found a “safe” way to collect yield in a sideways market. The truth? Most of them suck. They cap your upside, mislead investors with “yield” that’s really your own money coming back , and often trail just owning the stock by a mile. Join me for a brutally honest breakdown of how these funds actually work — and what you should be doing instead. 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