AI가 이제 빛의 속도에 도달했다 — 그리고 그건 ‘지루해 보이는’ 광학(옵틱스) 기업들에 호재다.

THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts AI Just Hit the Speed of Light — And That’s Bullish for “Boring” Optics AI Just Hit the Speed of Light — And That’s Bullish for “Boring” Optics Feb 12, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily --- H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. Our next webinar is scheduled Friday, February 20 2pm EST more info below. Disclosure Day: A Playbook For Investors If the Government Confirms It Has Alien Technology. Click HERE to sign up. Table of Contents --- H.E.A.T. The Deep Dive: Optical / Interconnect Is the Clean … The AI factory problem Wall Street keeps underpric … The Optical Stack: 3 Waves of Spend (and Why This … Wave 1: Pluggables now (800G, 1.6T) — “Ship the bo … Wave 2: Optical circuit switching (OCS) — “Make th … Wave 3: Co-packaged optics (CPO) / silicon photoni … Winners and Losers Potential Winners: “The AI plumbing that can’t be … Potential Losers: where the pain concentrates The “Signposts” That Matter (How You’ll Know This … The UFO Tie-In (Without Going Full Sci‑Fi) Bottom Line --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today The Jobs Report Looked “Great”… Until You Read the … The part nobody wants to talk about: the revision … The 900,000-job gap that changes the whole tone What it means for the Fed: March is probably off t … The hidden market regime shift: index calm, single … AI disruption is now a rolling shockwave (not one … Here’s the positioning twist: the snapback risk is … --- Winners and Losers: the simple way to play this ta … Likely winners in this regime Likely losers (or at least multiple compression ca … Bottom line --- A Stock I’m Watching Disclosure Day: A Playbook for Investors --- In Case You Missed It --- H.E.A.T. The Deep Dive: Optical / Interconnect Is the Cleanest “AI Throughput Bottleneck” Trade Everyone wants to debate whether AI is a bubble. Fine. Let them. The better question is simpler and more profitable: where does the money have to go, even if the hype cools? And right now, Big Tech is telling you—loudly—where it’s going: into the physical buildout. The world’s largest tech companies are lining up hundreds of billions in 2026 capex for AI infrastructure. The WSJ puts the combined total for Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet at up to ~$670B—a historically massive private capex wave. And Alphabet is talking about $175–$185B of capex in 2026 alone as it pushes AI + cloud capacity. Here’s the catch: you can buy all the GPUs you want… but if you can’t move data fast enough between them, the factory stalls. That’s the unsexy truth of AI: the bottleneck isn’t always compute. It’s throughput. The AI factory problem Wall Street keeps underpricing AI training and inference aren’t “one big chip.” They’re clusters—tens of thousands of GPUs/accelerators acting like one machine. That machine lives or dies on how fast it can shuffle data across racks, rows, and buildings. And at the bleeding edge (800G → 1.6T and beyond), “just use copper” stops working. Loss, heat, power draw, distance limits… physics shows up like a tax collector. That’s why Nvidia and the networking ecosystem are pushing toward silicon photonics and co-packaged optics (CPO) as the next architecture shift—moving optical engines closer to the switch ASIC to reduce loss and power. Nvidia has explicitly laid out roadmaps pointing to photonics/CPO becoming essential for next-gen AI data center networks around 2026. And it’s not just CPO. There’s also a second quiet revolution happening in parallel: optical circuit switching (OCS)—a way to reconfigure AI clusters with far lower power overhead than brute-force packet switching, increasingly discussed as AI connectivity demands explode. The Open Compute Project even created a dedicated OCS subproject to standardize and accelerate this category. Translation: the “pipes” are becoming the product. The Optical Stack: 3 Waves of Spend (and Why This Is a Cleaner Trade Than “AI Apps”) Think of optical/interconnect as a three-wave buildout. Each wave has different time horizons and different winners. Wave 1: Pluggables now (800G, 1.6T) — “Ship the boxes” This is the “no excuses” part. If hyperscalers are building clusters, they need transceivers and optical module supply chains. And we’re already seeing companies talk about robust data center demand tied to 800G and 1.6T products. Fabrinet has described strong growth inside the data center tied to pluggable optical modules and optical cables, including 800G and 1.6T products. Coherent has pointed to strong demand for 1.6T transceivers and expects both 800G and 1.6T to grow significantly in calendar 2026. Wave 1 is what I call the “capex-to-shipments translation layer.” It’s where PowerPoint turns into purchase orders. Wave 2: Optical circuit switching (OCS) — “Make the cluster reconfigurable” OCS matters because AI clusters increasingly need flexible topologies: different training jobs, different traffic patterns, different bottlenecks. If you can reconfigure cheaply and fast, you reduce “wasted” compute time. Lumentum has publicly announced an OCS platform (R • 64) targeted for AI data centers, with customer sampling beginning in calendar Q4 2025 and general availability expected in the second half of 2026. Separately, industry research cited by Fibre Systems (referencing Cignal AI) has forecast the OCS market reaching at least $2.5B by 2029, with the forecast revised upward versus earlier expectations. Wave 2 is where “AI networking” stops being just Ethernet switches and becomes architectural advantage. Wave 3: Co-packaged optics (CPO) / silicon photonics — “Move the light next to the brain” CPO is the long game—and it’s the most misunderstood. Investors hear “CPO” and think, “Oh, that kills pluggable optics.” Maybe eventually. But in reality, CPO is a multi-year transition, and it expands the photonics ecosystem even as it changes the form factor. You can see the strategic positioning happening already: AMD acquired Enosemi (photonic integrated circuits) to boost its co-packaged optics capabilities. Marvell acquired Celestial AI to expand into photonic fabric infrastructure for AI data centers. Nvidia has publicly outlined plans for photonics/CPO as part of its 2026-era roadmap. Wave 3 is the “platform war” layer. It’s where the architecture choices reshape the supply chain. Winners and Losers Not “recommendations.” Just the map. Potential Winners: “The AI plumbing that can’t be skipped” • 1) Optical component + photonics manufacturers (the toll booths) These are the businesses sitting closest to the conversion of AI capex into shipped optical hardware—lasers, photonics components, modules, and (in some cases) OCS adjacency. Lumentum (LITE): explicitly positioning in AI data center photonics and OCS (R64). Coherent (COHR): talking directly about 800G/1.6T transceiver demand growth into 2026. • 2) Contract manufacturing / “arms dealer” enablers If you want exposure to the ramp without betting on a single OEM brand, you often go to the people who build the thing. Fabrinet (FN): commentary ties data center growth to pluggable optical modules and optical cables including 800G/1.6T. • 3) Silicon photonics + networking platform ecosystems (the architects) The platform winners monetize the shift: switch ASICs, NICs, photonics platforms, co-packaging infrastructure. Examples to frame the category: Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, AMD (each making moves around photonics / CPO / optical fabric). • 4) “Boring but mandatory” picks-and-shovels adjacent to optics As embodied AI and data centers scale, they pull forward demand for: fiber/cabling connectors test/measurement advanced packaging and thermal management (These don’t need AI hype. They need volume.) Potential Losers: where the pain concentrates • 1) Anything levered to “AI compute is infinite and frictionless” When networking becomes the choke point, software narratives that assume endless cheap compute can get repriced—fast. Even the market’s recent tone suggests investors are becoming more skeptical of spend without ROI. • 2) Overcrowded optics momentum trades This is the cleanest bottleneck trade… which means it can also become the most crowded, the fastest. When optics gets “hot,” it can whip around violently. (The plumbing trade isn’t immune to positioning.) • 3) One-customer, one-form-factor fragility As architectures shift (pluggable → CPO, or fixed topologies → OCS-enabled), vendors too dependent on one hyperscaler, one module type, or one generation can get blindsided. A real example of this tension: investor fears have periodically flared that Nvidia’s CPO roadmap could reduce demand for traditional optical transceivers—some analysts have argued those fears are overblown, but the fact that the debate exists tells you where the risk premium is rising. The “Signposts” That Matter (How You’ll Know This Thesis Is Paying) If you want to run this theme like a pro, ignore the memes and watch these: 800G / 1.6T mix shift (the adoption curve) Lead times + supply constraints (are orders outrunning capacity?) OCS language changes: “pilot” → “deployment” → “standard” CPO posture: does it stay “future roadmap,” or does it become budget line-item? Capex discipline: hyperscalers still spending, but increasingly judged on ROI, cash flow, and monetization. The UFO Tie-In (Without Going Full Sci‑Fi) “Advanced tech” narratives almost always converge on sensors, signals, and information advantage. And that is photonics. AARO has explicitly explained that UAP imagery can remain classified not because the object is exotic, but because raw imagery and metadata can reveal sensitive sensor/platform capabilities (resolution, metadata, limitations). That’s optics, sensor fusion, detection, tracking, and—yes—information control. At the same time, AARO and DoD have repeatedly stated they’ve found no verifiable evidence that UAP cases represent extraterrestrial activity or that the U.S. has access to extraterrestrial tech. And then you have the “narrative accelerant”: Trump publicly claiming a secret pulsed-energy “Discombobulator” capability was used in the Venezuela operation to make equipment “not work.” That is a claim—not a technical disclosure—but it reinforces the same direction of travel: modern conflict increasingly revolves around non-kinetic, invisible effects (electronics, sensors, comms). So whether you’re watching AI data centers or “UFO disclosure risk,” the investable common denominator is the same: the infrastructure that moves, senses, and controls information. In markets, that shows up as optical interconnect. Bottom Line The AI boom is evolving from “who has the best model?” to “who can build the biggest machine?” And the biggest machine has a hard limit: how fast it can move data. That’s why optical/interconnect is the cleanest throughput bottleneck trade on the board: It’s physical. It’s measurable. And it’s where capex becomes shipments. If the market keeps rotating away from story-stocks and toward “real economy” constraints, light-based infrastructure is where the next leg gets built. --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today The Jobs Report Looked “Great”… Until You Read the Fine Print (And AI Is Hunting the Next “Safe” Sector) If you only read the headlines, January looked like a clean win. Payrolls came in at +130,000 versus a consensus +55,000. Unemployment ticked down to 4.3%. Politicians immediately took a victory lap. That’s the noise. The news is what happened in the background… and what it implies for rates, multiples, and why AI is now knocking over “boring” business models one industry at a time. The part nobody wants to talk about: the revision was the real report Buried inside the release was a benchmark revision that quietly re-writes the last year of “strength.” The Labor Department revised job gains lower by ~862,000 for the 12 months ending March 2025. And the story gets uglier: total 2025 job additions were revised down to ~181,000 from ~584,000. That implies that in the back half of 2025, job growth essentially flatlined (net jobs close to zero). Translation: January’s headline number is a snapshot. The revision is the trend. And the trend says: the labor market isn’t “breaking,” but it’s not remotely as tight as the narrative has been priced for. The 900,000-job gap that changes the whole tone Here’s the simplest way to frame labor conditions right now: Job openings: ~6.5 million Unemployed: ~7.4 million That’s roughly a 900,000-person gap where more people are looking for work than there are jobs available. Historically, that’s not a “soft landing” victory lap indicator. It’s a late-cycle warning light—even if it doesn’t guarantee recession on its own. Stack that on top of what’s been trickling in elsewhere: softer private payroll prints, weaker hiring intentions, and very loud layoff headlines (even if not economy-wide yet). It’s a labor market that’s cooling… and it’s cooling in a way that can be masked for months by headline payroll noise. What it means for the Fed: March is probably off the table Investors spent the early part of this year trying to “will” rate cuts into existence. But the Fed doesn’t cut because you want your portfolio to feel better. The Fed cuts when it has to. And if you’re looking at: a headline payroll beat, unemployment dipping, and inflation still refusing to behave… …then the Fed has zero urgency. The market’s implied probability of a March cut has collapsed to “basically nothing,” and Fed speakers have already started leaning into “hold steady for longer.” The bigger risk isn’t just “higher for longer” policy rates. It’s the balance sheet. If the next regime (Warsh or otherwise) pairs any easing with balance-sheet contraction, you can get the worst cocktail for risk assets: rate relief headlines with liquidity tightening underneath. That’s how you end up with a market that looks calm at the index level… while single names get vaporized. The hidden market regime shift: index calm, single-stock chaos Here’s what’s happening in plain English: We are in a market where the index can hover near highs… while entire pockets of stocks get sent to the shadow realm. Why? Because investors aren’t repricing “growth.” They’re repricing certainty. For the last decade, Wall Street paid premium multiples for anything that looked like: high margin recurring revenue predictable growth “defensive” cash flows In 2026, those same qualities are now being interpreted differently: “If AI can automate the workflow, then your predictability is a liability… because it makes you a target.” So the market is doing what it always does in a transition: It’s not waiting for disruption to fully arrive. It’s repricing the risk premium today. AI disruption is now a rolling shockwave (not one big event) Last week it was software and business analytics—anything “recurring revenue” with a premium multiple. Then it was insurance brokers—the distribution layer that collects fees for matchmaking buyers and policies. The other day it was wealth management / broker platforms—the business model built on being the interface, the relationship, the gatekeeper. This is the new pattern: AI launches a tool The market doesn’t ask “does this kill the industry tomorrow?” The market asks “does this permanently compress the multiple investors are willing to pay for the industry?” That’s why the selling looks “irrational” in the moment. It’s not about next quarter’s earnings. It’s about what multiple the market wants to pay for “certainty” when the world suddenly feels less certain. Here’s the positioning twist: the snapback risk is real Now add gasoline to the fire: positioning. After the factor unwind and the violent rotations, a lot of books look like this: Long the “obvious AI winners” (semis, hardware, infrastructure beneficiaries) Short the “AI victims” (software, brokers, anything fee-based and high multiple) When positioning gets that one-sided, you don’t need good news for a snapback. You just need the selling pressure to stop. That’s why you can get a market where: software is “dead” for weeks, then rips for days on nothing but air pockets and positioning repair. So yes — the rotation out of software and the Mag 7 can snap back hard, even if the longer-term regime is still broadening and dispersion stays elevated. --- Winners and Losers: the simple way to play this tape Likely winners in this regime Real-asset AI enablers: power, data centers, grid equipment, cooling, connectivity “Picks and shovels” compute infrastructure (where demand is constrained by physical bottlenecks, not app narratives) Domain-expert software with true switching costs + deep integration (the “top 2–3 players” in each category) Lower-multiple cyclicals / value that benefit from rotation when tech multiples compress Companies with pricing power + balance sheet strength (because funding matters again) (If you want the infrastructure angle: this is exactly why the “AI infrastructure” crowd keeps getting pulled back and then re-bid — the bottleneck isn’t demand, it’s power, execution, and speed-to-market.) Likely losers (or at least multiple compression candidates) Intermediaries whose value is “helping you fill out the form” (brokers, certain distributors, tollbooth platforms) High-multiple ‘recurring revenue’ stories that trade more on narrative than profit Revenue-multiple software with thin margins and weak differentiation Businesses that can’t explain their moat without using the word “workflow” ten times Bottom line The headline payroll number was fine. The revision was the message: the labor market has been softer than advertised. The Fed is the implication: don’t assume fast cuts; assume policy uncertainty and liquidity sensitivity. And AI disruption is the market regime: it’s not one crash—it's a rolling series of “surprise” victims, where valuation gets repriced before fundamentals break. This is not a “buy the index and go to sleep” year. This is a year where the index can look calm… while your portfolio learns what “dispersion” really means. --- A Stock I’m Watching Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) — the “meme-y” way to play weight loss (and why it’s in MEMY and NOT NVO/LLY) When people say VKTX just had “blowout earnings,” what they usually mean isn’t “profits” — it’s momentum + milestones. Viking is still in heavy build mode: in its latest update it reported a Q4 net loss of $157.7M (–$1.38/share) as R&D spending ramps, and it exited 2025 with ~$706M in cash/cash equivalents/short-term investments. Here’s why the tape still treats VKTX like a headline stock: the entire equity story is a probability-weighted bet on VK2735 (their GLP-1/GIP dual agonist) and whether it becomes a real contender in obesity. Viking says its Phase 3 VANQUISH program for injectable VK2735 is underway (with VANQUISH-1 fully enrolled >4,500 patients and VANQUISH-2 expected to complete enrollment in 1Q26). It also plans to advance oral VK2735 into Phase 3 (expected 3Q26), and it has maintenance-dosing data targeted for 3Q26 — which matters because the “end game” in obesity is durability + tolerability + adherence, not just week-13 weight loss. I’m a huge believer in the weight loss drug theme so why VKTX belongs in “meme-y” (MEMY) and not alongside NVO/LLY when you want exposure? Because VKTX is “weight-loss optionality,” not “weight-loss cash flow.” VKTX = a levered bet on ( • 1) clinical data, ( • 2) timelines, ( • 3) FDA conversations, ( • 4) manufacturing readiness, and ( • 5) the market’s appetite for “the next obesity platform.” With no commercial franchise to anchor valuation, the stock trades like an option: it can rip on good news, and it can gap down on any hint of safety/tolerability, efficacy vs. best-in-class, or timeline slip. NVO / LLY = operating businesses with massive installed commercial engines. They’re still exposed to competition, reimbursement, and political pricing noise — but they don’t “live or die” on one trial readout. So if you’re building a “weight-loss exposure stack,” think of it like this: NVO/LLY = the core position (durable, cash-generating exposure to the category) VKTX = the high-octane satellite (the “call option” on a new entrant becoming real, or getting taken out, or proving it can compete on tolerability/adherence and delivery format) That’s why VKTX is “meme-y”: it’s fundamentally a narrative + catalyst + volatility vehicle. When the market’s in a risk-on, “story-stock” mood, VKTX can outperform dramatically. When the market wants proof (or de-risks biotech), it can get punished even if the long-term thesis hasn’t changed. Our next webinar….. Fri, Feb 20, 2PM EST Disclosure Day: A Playbook For Investors If The Government Confirms It Has Alien Technology How to position your portfolio before Washington admits it has non‑human technology, and where the first trillion dollars of “alien alpha” could flow. Click HERE to sign up You’re not crazy if you believe in UFOs or UAP (unidentified anomalous phenomena). In fact, you want to be ready for the day when we’re told, for real, that we’re not alone. You won’t read about it in the Wall Street Journal or hear about it on CNBC — yet. But “Disclosure Day” is coming. And the reality of UAP could trigger a shift in global markets that — no hyperbole — makes the Internet boom and the AI explosion seem tiny. Matt Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management ($4 billion AUM), is an ETF rebel who’s spent decades trading big, unexpected market moves. He created his --- H.E.A.T. investing framework—Hedges, Edges, Asymmetry, Themes—to turn left-field events into high-conviction opportunities. Now, he's deploying that exact playbook on the one catalyst almost no one's positioned for... In a free live “Disclosure Day” briefing, Matt will explain: ✅ Why this isn’t about tinfoil hats. A move from rumor to reality could shift seismic capital across defense, energy, materials, and data – with clear winners and losers. ✅ The “Disclosure Debris:” How small hints can move big money before any big speech from Washington. And why hearings, leaks, and half‑answers already matter more than one big moment if you want a shot at alien alpha. ✅ Early matters – even if you might feel a bit crazy: A simple way to look at UFO news that lets you stay sane, stay skeptical, and still be in position if this really is the next trillion‑dollar theme. ✅ Who could win, who could lose, and when it’s too late: Which sectors of defense, energy, and materials might see money rush in first, and how to think about bet size before everyone on TV is yelling about UFO trades. ✅ The one belief shift that could change how you see every headline about UFOs and tech: The real question isn’t “is this true?” but “what if enough other investors decide it is?” ✅ A 30‑day playbook for the month after confirmation: A practical way to think about reallocating, hedging, and positioning if Washington ever admits more than it already has – without abandoning your own risk limits. PLUS . . . you’ll get a free copy of Matt’s Why The UAP Thematic Frontier May Be Closer – And Far Larger – Than You Might Think briefing. --- In Case You Missed It Focus on areas that AI isn’t going to eat…… The --- H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. TCM is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.© 2025 Tuttle Capital Management, LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved. 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