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You Are Fired? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts You Are Fired? You Are Fired? Jul 17, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Here’s what’s happening today: We added the Opportunistic Trader ETF to our ETF model portfolio. This is a unique strategy run by one of the last living Market Wizards, Larry Benedict….. The Opportunistic Trader ETF | Opportunistic Trader ETF www.opportunistictraderetf.com The possibility of Powell getting fired dominated the news….. — # (# ) ❝ Headlines around the possibility of Trump firing Powell sent risky assets lower and long end rate higher. However, Trump refuted these headlines saying that he doesn't plan on doing anything. We are not legal experts but it would be difficult for Trump to fire the Fed chair. Fed board members are appointed by the President and approved by the House and the Senate but they cannot be removed at will. So Trump would need to come up with some excuse around fraud of the Fed office refurbishment, which is most likely going to be challenged in court. Mohit Kumar, Jefferies ❝ JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Desmond Lachman (American Enterprise Institute think-tank) warn that undermining Fed independence could destabilize global markets. The US dollar and Treasurys are foundational to global finance — any perception of political manipulation could trigger capital flight and higher borrowing costs worldwide. If markets begin to price in a loss of Fed independence, the U.S. could face a structurally higher risk premium — weakening the dollar and raising the cost of capital across the economy. During the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum,’ emerging markets saw $30B in outflows in a single quarter due to Fed policy uncertainty. Jef-X Daily Macro Trump won’t fire Powell as Fed chair, says Treasury chief Bessent Bessent says formal process to find replacement has begun www.marketwatch.com/story/bessent-says-trump-wont-fire-powell-d3e03838?mod=home_econ While I believe you should always have Hedges in place, I think your hedges should be somewhat dynamic. With markets continuing to make new highs and uncertainty about Powell, I think adding to hedges wouldn’t be a dumb move here just in case. Not sure I agree with Mike here, but this is certainly a valid viewpoint…. ❝ The insanity of the current market is taunting investors and begging them to sell, but they just can’t bring themselves to do it. There is speculative froth everywhere, and the economic framework that has fostered stability for decades is intentionally being challenged. There is nothing wrong with challenging the norms and trying something different; that is how progress is made. We genuinely hope the President’s tariff strategy is the magic bullet to narrow the budget deficit, but we know there is no free lunch. There will be a cost. The financial and economic framework that has existed for decades will be put to the test, and it is naïve to believe there won’t be disruption. The current tariff plans will slow the global economy, and with each passing day, retaliation risk rises. Now the President appears intent on taking over the Federal Reserve, violating the foundational principle of central bank independence. Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading I extensively use AI to help with my investment research, so I found this article interesting…. Using ChatGPT for stock-market advice? Here’s how Wall Street pros do it. As more people ask chatbots for financial advice, creating the right prompts is the key to getting useful answers. www.marketwatch.com/story/using-chatgpt-for-stock-market-advice-heres-how-wall-street-pros-do-it-51af14a7?mod=home_lead AI is like everything else, garbage in, garbage out. The key, as the article states, is the prompt. I often tell it that Point 72 has paid it millions of dollars for investment advice on a certain topic. A reader asked yesterday if I have ever backtested the advice I get, I haven’t. However, I would never just buy a stock that AI suggested. AI is a tool, I can put something into it and immediately get a watchlist of the potential winners and the suppliers to those winners. I can have it summarize complex topics like quantum computing. In short, it can do in 1 minute what would have taken me hours in the past. — # (# ) Meanwhile, yesterday was an interesting day for SPACs and DeSPACs. PEW started trading (old CLBR) and was a disappointment…. On the other hand, GSRT and CEPO dipped along with it created some great buying opportunities if you saw them…… — # (# ) CEPO is extended, but with CEP at $35ish it could have room to run….. Good article yesterday….. Outlook for SPACs — Financier Worldwide Explore the evolving SPAC landscape, regulatory shifts, market slowdowns, and strategic challenges facing sponsors and investors in 2025 and beyond. www.financierworldwide.com/outlook-for-spacs ❝ It is well known that the insatiable appetite for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) initial public offerings (IPOs) that dominated the US capital markets in 2020 and the better part of 2021 has waned in recent years. However, there are signs that SPAC IPOs may be making a comeback. While not at the levels seen in 2020 or 2021, the first quarter of 2025 saw the pricing of 19 SPAC IPOs, raising a total of $3.1bn. This trend has continued into the second quarter with a total of 58 SPAC IPOs though 15 June 2025. I had GPT take a deep dive on the key points in the article….. 📌 SPAC Market Outlook – August 2025 🔍 Executive Summary The SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) market, once overheated and subsequently out of favor, is now entering a more disciplined and institutionalized “new era.” Activity is picking up again in 2025, with 58 SPAC IPOs priced through June , raising over $3.1B , signaling a potential comeback, albeit at a more moderate pace than 2020–2021. Key drivers of this resurgence include: Traditional IPO hesitation due to market volatility and tariffs Expectations of SEC deregulation under the Trump administration Shift to seasoned sponsors, conservative valuations , and shorter timelines (12–18 months) to complete deals Preference for Cayman incorporation over Delaware to reduce litigation risk 📈 Market Trends & Deal Structure Evolution Smaller, smarter deals: Recent SPACs raise ~$200M and emphasize profitability over growth-at-any-cost. Rights over warrants: Rights provide fractional shares with less dilution than traditional warrants. Sector focus: While still sector-agnostic, current SPACs favor high-growth areas like AI, crypto, energy, and data centers. Less overfunding: Recent deals reduce or eliminate the traditional $0.10–$0.20 per-share overfunding, indicating tighter economics. Pelican Acquisition Corp is a notable example: Cayman-based, fully subscribed IPO, rights-based structure, and a 15-month timeline with a broad target focus. ⚖️ Regulatory & Legal Landscape SEC rules adopted in Jan 2024 require: Enhanced disclosures (conflicts, dilution, sponsor comp) Target company co-signature on registration statements Stricter auditing and public company readiness for targets Reduced litigation risk from securities class actions—but a rise in fiduciary duty suits has led to a shift away from Delaware incorporation Caution still warranted: SEC enforcement remains active. Key risks include: Engaging with targets pre-IPO Relying too heavily on AI in diligence Merging with unprepared private companies ⚠️ Risks Shorter deal windows (12–15 months) create execution pressure Redemption risk remains high, threatening deal completion High valuations + limited target pool = competitive bidding and higher bar for shareholder approval Long-tail litigation exposure still lingers from deals done in 2021 ✅ Recommendation SPACs are investable again—but selectively. ✔️ Yes to: Pre-merger SPACs trading near or below trust value , offering an asymmetric return profile with a floor at cash-in-trust and upside on deal rumors or completion Seasoned sponsor teams with strong reputations and domain expertise SPACs targeting capital-intensive or geopolitically aligned sectors (e.g. AI infrastructure, energy, defense tech) ⚠️ Be cautious of: SPACs with tight timelines and unproven management Deals showing overly optimistic projections or complex financial engineering Post-merger (de-SPAC) companies that lack scale, profitability, or institutional support 🔎 Watchlist Consideration: Rebuild a SPAC basket strategy with exposure to: Asymmetric pre-merger opportunities (e.g. YORKU, other high-quality low-float SPACs) Sector-focused SPACs targeting AI/data infrastructure SPAC warrants where deal optionality remains underpriced 🧠 Final Take ❝ “SPACs aren’t dead—they’ve matured. In today’s environment, SPACs are more structured, better regulated, and offer a cleaner pipeline for high-growth private companies looking to go public. For the right sponsor, in the right sector, at the right valuation—they are a smart trade again.” Verdict: ✔️ Selective re-entry recommended. Focus on pre-deal SPACs trading below trust with asymmetric upside, especially in AI, infrastructure, and energy tech. Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0