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THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Tariffs Are Dead. Long Live Tariffs. Tariffs Are Dead. Long Live Tariffs. Feb 23, 2026 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $4 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily --- H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. Table of Contents --- H.E.A.T. Why the market shrugged (and why that’s the tell) A practical positioning framework: treat this as t … Trade #1: The “Relief Window” basket Trade #2: The “Tariffs are here to stay” winners The risk: de minimis + whiplash --- Winners and losers: the clean way to think about i … Likely winners Likely losers Bottom line Winners: “Tariff Relief / Affordability Window” ba … Losers: “Tariff Whiplash / Re-load & Retaliation R … --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today --- A Stock I’m Watching --- In Case You Missed It --- H.E.A.T. The Supreme Court just kneecapped the White House’s fastest tariff weapon: the “emergency” tariffs imposed under IEEPA. The key point isn’t that tariffs are “gone.” It’s that the shortcut is gone. The Court ruled the IEEPA doesn’t authorize tariffs, blowing up the administration’s ability to spray the world with levies at will, on impulse, overnight. That matters because “tariffs by proclamation” created a unique kind of uncertainty: businesses couldn’t model it, supply chains couldn’t plan for it, and markets had to price a headline risk premium that could hit any morning before coffee. The ruling doesn’t end the tariff regime — it forces it to evolve into something slower, more procedural, and (ironically) more durable. Even the administration’s own messaging now frames this as a tool change, not a direction change. And the White House moved immediately to prove the point: within hours it announced a backup plan — a temporary 10% import duty for 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective Feb. 24. The details matter: it’s broad, but not universal. The fact sheet lists carve-outs (from certain critical minerals/energy inputs to select ag products and pharmaceuticals, plus some electronics and aerospace), exempts anything already under (or later moved into) Section 232, and explicitly exempts USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico. It also doubles down on the “de minimis” crackdown: low-value shipments that used to slide through duty-free treatment remain suspended and will be subject to the new duty — a quiet but meaningful escalation for direct-to-consumer import models. In other words: the market didn’t wake up to “no tariffs.” It woke up to tariffs with a legal memo and a calendar. Why the market shrugged (and why that’s the tell) The tape’s reaction has been closer to a yawn than a panic because investors already learned the lesson over the last year: tariffs became noise once exemptions, carve-outs, and “deal” headlines diluted the shock value. The Supreme Court ruling is a big legal event — but markets trade cash flows and probabilities. And the probability that “tariffs go to zero” was never high. Even consumer prices probably won’t fall in any clean, immediate way: once companies raise sticker prices (or quietly reduce promotions), they rarely rush to reverse it — especially if the next tariff iteration is already being drafted. And any refund process for past tariffs is widely expected to be messy, slow, and more likely to accrue to businesses than consumers. So the real shift isn’t “tariff relief.” It’s tariff sequencing: Less chaos (harder to do arbitrary overnight tariff threats via “emergency” authority). More bureaucracy (investigations, procedures, durations, and carve-outs). More lobbying (because now exemptions and definitions become the whole game). More midterm gravity (because any durable extension runs into affordability politics). That’s why this moment is best viewed as a tariff reset, not a regime reversal. A practical positioning framework: treat this as two trades + one risk If you’re trying to position intelligently (instead of just reacting), stop thinking “tariffs up/down” and start thinking time horizon + policy path. Trade #1: The “Relief Window” basket If emergency tariffs truly unwind and the replacement path takes time (or gets carved up for political reasons), the highest sensitivity is in categories where import costs are a big part of COGS and pricing power is limited enough that tariffs squeezed margins. Potential winners (near-term sensitivity): Import-heavy discretionary: apparel/footwear/accessories and broadline retail. Think brands and retailers where a few hundred bps of cost relief can drop straight into gross margin or fund promotions without sacrificing margin. Consumer electronics retail: high imported content, high price transparency. Toys / low-ticket discretionary: historically tariff-sensitive supply chains. How to play it: treat it as event-driven and time-boxed. This isn’t a “forever rerate.” It’s a window where positioning can work if the market is wrong-footed on timing — and you’re disciplined about taking gains when the next tariff headline drops. Trade #2: The “Tariffs are here to stay” winners Even with IEEPA off the table, the administration is explicitly signaling that tariffs remain central to its policy toolbox — and it’s now using authorities that may be slower, but are still real. Translation: U.S. capex, reshoring, and domestic capacity-building remain supported. Potential winners (structural): Domestic industrial capacity tied to reshoring/buildout (where end demand is less “cheap imports” and more “build it here”). National-security-adjacent supply chains likely to stay protected or investigated under other authorities. U.S. infrastructure and onshore build themes that benefit from “policy gravity” regardless of the exact tariff schedule. How to play it: this is the core book exposure. It’s less sensitive to the daily headline and more aligned with the direction of travel: a more protectionist equilibrium with negotiated carve-outs, not a return to 2010s free trade. The risk: de minimis + whiplash The sleeper issue in the fact sheet is the continued suspension of de minimis duty-free treatment for low-value shipments. That’s a direct hit to business models that depend on shipping small parcels straight to U.S. consumers with minimal friction — and it’s inflationary at the margin for ultra-low-ticket goods. Separately, the biggest portfolio risk isn’t “tariffs down.” It’s whiplash: companies and sectors get repriced on “relief,” then repriced again when the replacement tariff path (or investigations) hits the tape. --- Winners and losers: the clean way to think about it Likely winners Import-heavy retailers/brands: margin relief, fewer supply-chain shocks, more promotional flexibility (especially if carve-outs focus on affordability categories). USMCA-integrated supply chains (where compliance matters): explicitly exempt from the new temporary duty if compliant — that’s a real edge versus “everyone pays 10%.” Companies with pricing power: even if costs ease, they may keep prices steadier and expand margins. Likely losers Direct-to-consumer import models reliant on low-value shipments: de minimis suspension is a tax on that model. Domestic producers living off blanket protection (where applicable): to the extent relief expands and exemptions widen, the “free margin” from tariffs can compress. Small businesses/importers hoping for clean refunds: even if refunds come, the process is expected to be slow and complicated — and it won’t magically reverse pricing decisions already made. Bottom line The Supreme Court didn’t end the tariff era — it ended the emergency shortcut. The administration’s response (a 10% temporary duty, carve-outs, and continued de minimis suspension) tells you everything: tariffs remain policy, but now they run on procedure and politics. The investable edge is to stop treating this like a binary “risk-on relief” moment and start treating it like a sequencing game: a tradable relief window for import-heavy margin stories, nested inside a longer-term shift toward structurally higher tariff baselines and reshoring incentives. Winners: “Tariff Relief / Affordability Window” basket These are the names that mechanically benefit if tariff pressure eases (or if pricing sticks while costs fall = margin upside). TGT (Target) — Big general merchandise importer; any cost relief tends to drop straight into gross margin (or supports promo flexibility). BBY (Best Buy) — Consumer electronics is import-heavy; lower landed costs = margin/price flexibility. NKE (Nike) — Footwear/apparel supply chains are import-intensive; tariff relief is a direct gross margin tailwind. RL (Ralph Lauren) — Same “imported softlines” math: relief = cleaner inventory + better margin mix. TPR (Tapestry) — Accessories/handbags: high import content; tariffs are basically a tax on the P&L. HAS (Hasbro) / MAT (Mattel) — Toys are historically one of the most tariff-exposed categories (manufacturing footprint + price-sensitive consumers). ELF (e.l.f. Beauty) — Beauty has meaningful imported product/components; margin structure benefits if costs cool. DECK (Deckers) / VFC (VF Corp.) / PVH (PVH) — “Soft goods” cohort with high import exposure; relief helps margins and reduces pricing friction. AAPL (Apple) — Not a pure “tariff relief” play like apparel, but lower policy uncertainty + supply chain friction helps sentiment and margins at the margin. HSY (Hershey) / SJM (J.M. Smucker) — If the administration leans into affordability optics (food inputs), staples can see incremental cost relief (even if muted). Losers: “Tariff Whiplash / Re-load & Retaliation Risk” basket These are the names that tend to get hit if we stay in policy churn (uncertainty) and/or if tariffs get re‑imposed through other, narrower channels. The Supreme Court ruling reduces one lever, but Trump is already using another (Section 122), so the uncertainty premium stays alive. • 1) Export/retaliation-sensitive “usual suspects” BA (Boeing) — Classic retaliation target in trade disputes; globally visible export exposure. CAT (Caterpillar) — Global end markets + easy political target; tariffs/retaliation can hit both costs and demand. DE (Deere) — Ag equipment is historically sensitive to trade retaliation and global demand headlines. MMM (3M) — Broad industrial supply chain + global exposure; tends to catch “trade friction” beta. • 2) Import-heavy + price-sensitive (can’t pass through easily) These are the ones that can lose even if the market “likes” tariff headlines, because uncertainty blocks price cuts and keeps planning messy — and a flat 10% broad levy is still a tax. DLTR (Dollar Tree) — Thin margin retail + import exposure = tariff pain shows up fast. FIVE (Five Below) — High import sensitivity; hard to pass costs without demand impact. W (Wayfair) — Big-ticket discretionary + imported goods mix = vulnerable if costs rise or demand softens. • 3) Metal-cost / supply-chain exposed cyclicals (if 232-style pressure stays hot) Even with IEEPA weakened, policy can migrate toward “national security” style tools that keep input costs sticky for downstream users. F (Ford) / GM (GM) / STLA (Stellantis) — Autos are a supply-chain soup; tariffs tend to show up as cost inflation and/or demand drag. --- News vs. Noise: What’s Moving Markets Today Still laser focused on AI, but we are seeing the market broaden out to a few key areas: EU digital sovereignty AI resilient software (more below) AI adopters (stay tuned, will write about this again soon) HALO (Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence, will write about this soon also) AI is still in the early innings, but the trade is broadening out. At some point the question is going to shift from what will AI crush to what companies will effectively adapt and monetize what’s coming. Not unlike we saw from retail during the dot com era. Those companies that were able to move online are still here, those that weren’t are not. This is something we’ve talked about before, and will continue to. Issues in private credit can spill over into public markets…. Riskiest CLO Funds Are Flashing a Warning Sign: Credit Weekly Fear of rising defaults is spreading from the leveraged loan market to some of the retail funds that ultimately buy the debt as investors get choosier about taking on credit risk. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-21/riskiest-clo-funds-are-flashing-a-warning-sign-credit-weekly?srnd=homepage-americas Meanwhile….. Are we witnessing a rotation into the rest of the market, or a dip buying opportunity? MAGO: Tuttle Capital Magnificent 7 Income Blast ETF | Tuttle Capital Income Blast ETFs The investment objective of the Tuttle Capital Magnificent 7 Income Blast ETF (the “Fund”) is to seek current income. The Fund’s secondary investment objective is to seek exposure to the share price of the common stock of the companies referred to as the “Magnificent 7”. www.incomeblastetfs.com/etf/mago --- A Stock I’m Watching We own CRWD in MEMY as one of my 20 best asymmetric thematic ideas. Been wrong so far, and the stock sold off hard yesterday as part of the stocks that will get crushed by AI. I still think cybersecurity will benefit from AI, so nothing has changed in our thesis here. Will be adding another AI resilient software company to MEMY today, stay tuned. --- In Case You Missed It Trump to Release the UFO Files. There’s Somehow an ETF for That The Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure ETF invests in forward-thinking technology www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-20/trump-to-release-ufo-files-the-ufod-etf-bets-on-alien-disclosures The --- H.E.A.T. (Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry and Theme) Formula is designed to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. 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