관세 반전: 트럼프가 후퇴할 것인가, 아니면 재장전할 것인가?

Tariff Reversal: Will Trump Retreat or Reload? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Tariff Reversal: Will Trump Retreat or Reload? Tariff Reversal: Will Trump Retreat or Reload? The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle May 29, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: Tariff Reversal: Will Trump Retreat or Reload? NVIDIA Shrugs Off China—and the AI Supercycle Marches On Why the Shorts Don’t Get Tempus—And Nancy Pelosi Does and more…….. — # (# ) Tariff Reversal: Will Trump Retreat or Reload? — # (# ) — # (# ) — # (# ) — # (# ) I though the big news of the day would be NVDA earnings, I was wrong. Intraday the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade started making the rounds of Wall Street. I would argue, as I said yesterday, that spikes in yields have caused him to walk back some statements. The bond vigilantes are on the prowl In a number of key markets, investors are losing patience with governments still wanting to borrow like there’s no tomorrow www.ft.com/content/8ea2e8b5-7ba0-46bd-bbbb-3895da1399c6 I would also argue that poking the bear is not a good thing. Then after hours came news that the courts ruled he doesn’t have the power to impose tariffs. I’m not a lawyer but I do include a tweet above and below indicating that Goldman thinks he can do it anyway, — # (# ) but markets are nicely green on this, and NVDA earnings. Now we have uncertainty on what Trump will do from here, which also creates uncertainty about what the Fed will do. I wouldn’t do anything major here until we hear more from Trump and perhaps gain a bit more clarity. — # (# ) — # (# ) Yields are up so far this morning, keep an eye on that — # (# ) We take a deep dive on NVDA earnings below, one key highlight that we hit a few days ago, and will hit again because it’s so big, is robotics…… — # (# ) Although, this could be a threat to autonomous vehicles….. — # (# ) Wall Street analysts always behind the curve…. — # (# ) NVIDIA Shrugs Off China—and the AI Supercycle Marches On I went on Schwab Network yesterday to preview NVDA earnings…. — # (# ) The stock has already rallied so much off the liberation day lows I worried about whether they could do enough to test the year highs, especially since a lot has happened since those highs. Looks like I was wrong, but I still would be looking for dips and wouldn’t buy the rip. What I do think this does is clear the path some more, after the other Mag 7 names, to keep buying back into AI infrastructure. I ran the earnings through GPT and we seem to be on the same page….. Forget the China charges. Forget the political noise. NVIDIA (NVDA) just proved—again—that it’s not only the AI king, it’s the entire throne room . On Wednesday, Nvidia reported a jaw-dropping $44.1 billion in quarterly revenue , up 69% year-over-year , and smashed Wall Street’s already aggressive expectations. Even with a $4.5 billion hit from China export curbs , the company printed $18.8 billion in profit , and signaled more strength to come. You’d think a company losing access to an $8 billion market would blink. NVIDIA didn’t flinch. 🧠 This Isn’t a GPU Company Anymore NVIDIA’s edge has never been just about hardware. It’s about control of the AI developer stack . Every chip runs on CUDA—its proprietary software ecosystem that locks in developers like Apple did with iOS. ❝ “The platform that wins the AI developers wins AI.” — Jensen Huang That’s the crux. While Wall Street obsesses over China and $5.5 billion write-downs, Huang is out in the Middle East, Asia, and now Europe , signing infrastructure deals with sovereign AI buyers. Think of it this way: Microsoft sells cloud. NVIDIA sells civilization . 📈 The Key Metrics Metric Actual Expectations Revenue $44.1B $43.3B Net Income $18.8B $19.5B (slight miss) Gross Margin (adj.) 71.3% 71% expected Q2 Guidance $45B (+/– 2%) $45.5B expected Despite a $2.5B sales loss from H20 chip restrictions and an ongoing $8B China headwind , Nvidia's forecast came within 1% of consensus—and gross margins are set to expand to 72% next quarter. 🧠 Strategic Moves Blackwell chip rollout is on track after early technical snags. US onshoring : Nvidia is pledging $500 billion toward U.S. manufacturing—a political hedge if Trump wins in November. Diversification away from Big Tech : Sovereign AI deals in Saudi, UAE, and Europe are insulating NVDA from hyperscaler concentration risk. 🚩 What Bears Are Watching Revenue guidance barely met whisper numbers China restrictions are real—$8B in expected lost revenue is not small Growth from this point must come from non-U.S., non-Big Tech buyers and new markets But here’s the catch: ❝ Nvidia is already doing that . And no one else is even close. 🏆 Final Verdict: BUY or HOLD. Add on pullbacks. You do not sell the infrastructure winner of a global arms race —especially not after it just shrugged off a geopolitical gut punch and still printed 69% YoY growth. If you own it: hold it. If you missed it: wait for a pullback and buy it. Don’t overthink it. This is Act II of the AI Supercycle, and NVIDIA still owns the script, the stage, and the box office. 👑 Positioning: Long-term core position (5–10% in tech sleeve) Bottom Line: Nvidia just proved it can lose China—and still outgrow the rest of tech. There are few companies in the history of markets that have created demand for $45 billion worth of silicon in one quarter . This isn’t a chipmaker. This is the foundation of modern AI civilization . And it’s still a buy. Why the Shorts Don’t Get Tempus—And Nancy Pelosi Does Nancy’s been early—and right—on plenty of next-gen names. Tempus AI (TEM) might be the biggest swing yet. But this morning, Spruce Point Capital came out swinging with a short report, arguing that Tempus is just another overhyped diagnostics firm riding an AI label. ❝ In typical hedge fund fashion, they’re measuring the foundation as if it were the house—and missing the entire blueprint. Shay Boloor’s rebuttal is worth your attention. Because he nails what most public-market investors still don’t get: — # (# ) Tempus isn’t trying to sell tests. It’s trying to own the interface between human health and machine learning. 1. What Spruce Gets Wrong Spruce’s core argument boils down to this: Tempus is overvalued based on 2024–2025 revenue AI is only 2% of revenue Ambry (Tempus’s acquisition) is a drag Reimbursement risk looms large Here’s why that’s short-term thinking in a long-duration game . 2. The Real Thesis on Tempus (Why Shay and Nancy are Right) 🧠 This Is Not a Diagnostics Company Tempus runs a data pipeline business . The tests are the toll booth—every sample that goes through its system feeds the ML flywheel . Think Palantir’s Foundry , but for genomics, histology, and clinical trials. The AI revenue today is small— but the data asset is massive . 🔋 Ambry = Inputs, Not Drag Acquiring Ambry is vertical integration 101 . It ensures control of sample quality, logistics, and throughput. Same playbook Amazon used with planes and Tesla with batteries. ❝ You don’t wait for margin; you control the stack and build it. 💊 This Isn’t a Reimbursement Story Spruce tries to paint Tempus as a billing-code roll-up. But the real bet is that Tempus becomes the “ChatGPT” for your health records —the thing your doctor asks before deciding what to do next. If that interface works, the company becomes indispensable. 3. Winners & Losers in This Fight Name Rating Why It Wins (or Loses) TEM 9/10 Still early—but the infrastructure, data flywheel, and AI vision are intact. PLTR 8/10 Same playbook, different vertical. Proof that “AI interface layers” can scale. QSI 6/10 Another small-cap genomics AI name. High upside, but thin moat vs. Tempus. EXAS 5/10 Diagnostic firm without the software stack—at risk if Tempus scales. ILMN 4/10 Losing share in both hardware and bioinformatics as vertical players emerge. Spruce 3/10 Good at accounting screens. Weak on platform vision. 4. Should You Add, Hold, or Sell? ❝ Hold with conviction—and consider adding on dips. Yes, valuation is rich. Yes, revenue is skewed toward diagnostics. But that’s always the case in the early stages of a data-platform company. Just like Palantir in 2020 or Axon before SaaS flipped the business model. If Tempus turns its clinical pipeline into a sticky AI interface—used by oncologists, trial sponsors, and health systems— the monetization paths are exponential. 5. GPTs Positioning Strategy Core position (3–5%) in long-term AI-health portfolio Use volatility from short-seller hits to accumulate Track AI revenue share and usage data—not just booked revenue Look for strategic partnerships (hospitals, payers, life sciences) as leading indicators Bottom Line Spruce is measuring the wrong thing. This is not a company selling tests. It’s a company building the pipes through which future healthcare flows. Shay Boloor said it best: Tempus is not about reimbursement codes—it’s about becoming the medical interface layer. Nancy was early. The shorts are early—for the wrong reasons. How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before you go how I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Wealth Management-Coming Soon Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0