스테이블코인 쓰나미: 은행과 EM에 닥칠 4조 달러 규모의 충격파

Stablecoin Tsunami: The $4 Trillion Shockwave Coming for Banks and EMs THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Stablecoin Tsunami: The $4 Trillion Shockwave Coming for Banks and EMs Stablecoin Tsunami: The $4 Trillion Shockwave Coming for Banks and EMs Sep 29, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. — # (# ) Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🧠 Stablecoin Tsunami: The $4 Trillion Shockwave C … 🚀 Winners 1. U.S. Treasuries and the Dollar 2. Stablecoin Issuers & Digital Rails 3. Banks – If They Adapt 4. Infrastructure Providers ⚠️ Losers 1. Small & Community Banks 2. Emerging Market Central Banks 3. Traditional Payment Rails (without adaptation) 4. Crypto Pretenders 📊 Investment Takeaways 🔑 Bottom Line 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now The inevitable snap back on Friday and so far this morning. Dip buyers keep being rewarded in this market. One day they won’t, but until proven otherwise you need to be buying dips. This week we have the jobs number on Friday, as usual it should be market moving. We did continue to see a rotation into real assets on Friday, so this does seem like more than a one day wonder. Remember, we do advocate a fixed position in precious metals (up big again this morning) and miners for investors. Beyond that, real assets are tough to own long term. The natural gas stocks are my favorites, but I tend to be in and out of EQT (my favorite name in the group), In now…… I got out of BTU (coal) before the little dip, Trump has been ramping coal names but they shouldn’t look like AI stocks…… Oil stocks are just tough to own long term, I do have TPL because they are a royalty company…. If you are interested in a deeper dive on royalty companies vs. drillers….. ❝ An oil and gas royalty company is a type of business entity that primarily owns royalty interests in oil and gas properties, entitling it to a share of the revenue generated from the production of hydrocarbons without participating in the operational aspects of extraction. These companies typically acquire or hold mineral rights, land, or non-participating royalty interests (NPRIs) and lease them to operators, receiving payments based on a percentage of the gross production value (often 12.5% to 25%) or a fixed amount per unit produced. This model is passive, as the company bears no costs for exploration, drilling, development, or ongoing operations, and instead focuses on managing its portfolio of royalty assets for steady income streams. In contrast, an oil and gas drilling company—often referred to as an exploration and production (E&P) company or operator—is actively involved in the hands-on process of locating, drilling, completing, and producing oil and gas wells. These companies invest heavily in seismic surveys, leasing acreage, drilling rigs, and infrastructure, bearing the full financial risks, including dry holes (unsuccessful wells), fluctuating commodity prices, regulatory compliance, and environmental liabilities. They generate revenue by selling the extracted resources but must deduct all operational expenses, which can be substantial and volatile. Key differences include: - Risk and Cost Exposure : Royalty companies face minimal operational risk and no direct production costs, making their income more predictable and less capital-intensive. Drilling companies, however, shoulder high upfront and ongoing costs (e.g., for equipment, labor, and maintenance), leading to greater financial volatility. - Business Model and Involvement : Royalty companies operate passively, often as trusts or corporations like Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL), which earns royalties from Permian Basin production without drilling itself. Drilling companies are active operators, making decisions on well locations, technology, and production strategies to maximize output. - Revenue Structure : Royalty payments are "free of costs" (net of only minimal taxes), providing a high-margin stream. Drilling companies' profits depend on net revenue after expenses, which can erode margins during low-price cycles or high-cost environments. - Capital Requirements : Royalty companies require less capital for growth, often relying on acquisitions or organic leasing, while drilling companies need significant funding for continuous exploration and development to replace reserves. This distinction allows royalty companies like TPL to offer investors exposure to oil and gas upside with lower downside risk compared to the more aggressive, operationally intensive profile of drilling companies. I continue to be long the ALB preferred for lithium exposure and a .90/share quarterly dividend….. Crypto took it on the chin last week, Ethereum, which was the stronger crypto, looks like it’s trying to curl back up this morning….. I wouldn’t go against Eric…. — # (# ) We launched a 2x BMNR (BMNU) Friday that got a lot of interest as well….. — # (# ) One of the reasons why I recommend owning precious metals AND crypto is the diversification benefit. Crypto got crushed last week, but gold and silver continued to move up. Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf SPACs had an interesting week. Chamath launched his American Exceptionalism SPAC (AEXA), which traded as high as 10.93. Tom Lee launched his FutureCrest Acquisition Corp. which traded as high as 10.58. This still isn’t the post Covid SPAC market, but it shows that certain SPACs can still get a pop. SPCX: The SPAC and New Issue ETF www.spcxetf.com I wouldn’t worry about this, the market has weathered these just fine in the past….. The last thing the stock market wants right now is a government shutdown. Here’s why. Stocks are defying their typical weakness in September — but it isn’t October yet www.marketwatch.com/story/the-last-thing-the-stock-market-wants-right-now-is-a-government-shutdown-heres-why-7bac216e?mod=home_lead 🧠 Stablecoin Tsunami: The $4 Trillion Shockwave Coming for Banks and EMs I’ve said many times that I think stablecoins will transform finance, I’m just not sure how yet. It’s also one of the reasons we launched an inverse regional bank ETF ( SKRE ) as it is a big reason I think the regionals are in trouble. Citibank came out with a big report last week, so today we take a deep dive…. Citi’s report makes one thing very clear: stablecoins are no longer a crypto sideshow. They’re morphing into mainstream financial infrastructure, with projected issuance of $1.9T (base case) to $4T (bull case) by 2030 , supporting up to $200T in annual transaction volume GPS_Report_Stablecoins_2030 . But the real story is who wins, who loses, and what this means for investors. 🚀 Winners 1. U.S. Treasuries and the Dollar Every new stablecoin is backed by reserves — mostly U.S. T-bills . Citi projects $1T+ of incremental Treasury demand by 2030 , enough for stablecoin issuers to rival foreign sovereign holders GPS_Report_Stablecoins_2030 . Extends U.S. dollar dominance globally, creating “Eurodollar 2.0” rails. ✅ Winners: U.S. government financing costs, Treasury dealers, custodians like BNY Mellon, State Street, JPMorgan. 2. Stablecoin Issuers & Digital Rails USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle) remain the duopoly, but Citi expects new entrants: banks, corporates (PayPal, Amazon, Walmart), and regional players (Alibaba/ JD.com in HKD, UAE dirham projects). Layer-1 networks purpose-built for payments (Circle’s ARC, Stripe’s Tempo, Tether’s Plasma) could capture huge value GPS_Report_Stablecoins_2030 . ✅ Winners: Circle, Tether, PayPal, future corporate issuers, payment specialists like Stripe, Alchemy Pay. 3. Banks – If They Adapt Citi emphasizes bank tokens (deposit tokens, tokenized deposits) may exceed stablecoin volumes by 2030 — potentially $100–140T annual flows GPS_Report_Stablecoins_2030 . Banks can win as issuers, custodians, FX managers, and liquidity providers. Example: JPMorgan already moving billions daily through its JPM Coin rails. ✅ Winners: JPMorgan, Citi, HSBC, large universal banks that tokenize deposits early. 4. Infrastructure Providers Custodians: Manage reserves, compliance, audits. Payment networks: Visa, Mastercard integrating stablecoin rails. Exchanges & wallets: Coinbase, Binance, fintech super-apps. Tech vendors: ZK-proofs, privacy layers, security/audit firms. ✅ Winners: Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, Fireblocks, Chainlink (oracles), ZK-rollup protocols. ⚠️ Losers 1. Small & Community Banks As deposits migrate into stablecoins and bank tokens, small banks lose cheap funding. This is Narrow Banking 2.0 : stablecoin issuers concentrate flows into T-bills, starving smaller lenders of deposits GPS_Report_Stablecoins_2030 . ❌ Losers: Regional/community banks with deposit-heavy models. 2. Emerging Market Central Banks Dollar-backed stablecoins crowd out local currencies. Loss of monetary sovereignty → weaker FX reserves, higher volatility, harder inflation control GPS_Report_Stablecoins_2030 . Citi warns EMs could see destabilizing capital flight via stablecoins during crises. ❌ Losers: EM central banks (Argentina, Nigeria, Turkey, etc.), EM banks relying on weak local currencies. 3. Traditional Payment Rails (without adaptation) Domestic RTGS and SWIFT still dominate, but cross-border stablecoins are cheaper, faster, programmable. Citi notes stablecoins will not displace domestic real-time systems (80+ countries already have them) but will disrupt cross-border and settlement rails GPS_Report_Stablecoins_2030 . ❌ Losers: SWIFT, legacy correspondent banking networks, FX intermediaries. 4. Crypto Pretenders Not every token wins. Fragmentation, regulation, and interoperability issues mean many stablecoin wannabes fail . Algorithmic models are effectively banned under new rules (GENIUS Act in the U.S., MiCA in Europe, HKMA sandbox in Asia). ❌ Losers: Algo-stable projects (Terra-style), unregulated offshore issuers, thinly capitalized startups. 📊 Investment Takeaways Core Play: U.S. Treasuries & custodians (BNY, State Street, JPM). Growth Play: Circle (CRCL), PayPal (PYPL), Visa/Mastercard (integrating stablecoins). Speculative: Exchanges & L1s tied to payments (COIN, SOL, new entrants like Circle ARC). Hedges: Regional banks (KRE ETF) and EM FX exposure are at risk. 🔑 Bottom Line Stablecoins are moving from crypto gimmick → financial plumbing . The winners are Treasuries, big banks, regulated issuers, and payment networks . The losers are community banks, EM central banks, and legacy rails that don’t adapt . This is exactly the kind of policy-driven asymmetry we look for — an unstoppable structural demand wave (Treasuries, custodians, issuers) paired with clear losers (regional banks, EM FX). Position accordingly. The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover Tue, Sep 30, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT -Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead - How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes - 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market - How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns - Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns - 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds Click Below to Register The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover register.gotowebinar.com/register/2237592374108794972 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is Kratos (KTOS)….. Full disclosure, we have a 2x on this, KTUP. 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