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Software: Is It Finally Time? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Software: Is It Finally Time? Software: Is It Finally Time? Sep 9, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🧠 Software: Is It Finally Time? 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now The market continues to bleed higher. PPI is tomorrow, CPI is Thursday. A hot number could be a problem. Rates are the lowest they have been since April, as long as rates are heading down you want to be long equities. Again, hot inflation numbers could change Fed rate cut expectations and bring things right back up. After the close yesterday it was reported that Nebius Group signed a deal with Microsoft worth up to $19.4 billion over the next six years. Bitcoin mining/data center names are rallying in response. A week or so ago I talked about these names and highlighted IREN….. Bitcoin Miners → AI Data Centers theheatformula.beehiiv.com/p/bitcoin-miners-ai-data-centers It’s been riding the 10 day MA and 20 day EMA and is currently up over 10% pre market. We’ve also talked a lot about digital asset treasury companies (DAT) a lot lately. A bunch more conversions have been announced and this area is showing strength again. These warrant caution as there will be a lot of crap and there’s not a great reason to pay over NAV for these assets. Dan Ives–led Worldcoin treasury purchase is only latest example of market madness The 3,000% surge in Eightco Holdings on the purchase of a digital asset that can be acquired independently is just the latest example of what one analyst calls “market madness.” www.marketwatch.com/story/frenzied-as-ever-the-dan-ives-led-worldcoin-treasury-purchase-is-only-latest-example-of-market-madness-43c247ad?mod=home_lead MicroStrategy, the ultimate DAT hasn’t really benefited as there are now multiple alternatives, it still looks like a short…. A bunch of others are stronger this morning and this is an area we are going to continue to be active in on the 2x side, and maybe our own DAT at some point. Meanwhile, Bitcoin looks like it may have bottomed…… And Ethereum looks like it’s coiling for a move one way or the other….. Meanwhile, Gold continues to move higher….. I continue to believe it’s not gold or bitcoin, it’s gold and bitcoin. Our version of the permanent portfolio has a 25% allocation to precious metals and crypto…… Permanent Portfolio 2.0: Re Engineering a Classic For a New Century theheatformula.beehiiv.com/p/permanent-portfolio-2-0-re-engineering-a-classic-for-a-new-century Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf I continue to believe NVDA is a must own, see my Schwab appearance last week (below) when I talked about NVDA and AVGO, but I doubt you get a ton of alpha from owning just NVDA here…… Nvidia’s ‘Wow’ Factor Is Fading The AI-chip giant gave Wall Street a long string of earnings beats, but its growth trajectory is coming down to earth www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-stock-nvda-growth-827999c7?mod=hp_lead_pos3 See my webinar below, I will discuss how to identify top themes and look for second, third, and fourth order winners and losers. 🧠 Software: Is It Finally Time? I covered software a few days ago and figured we would hit it again…. Software’s Death by AI? Not So Fast theheatformula.beehiiv.com/p/software-s-death-by-ai-not-so-fast IGV pulled an undercut and rally at the 50 day yesterday, and there are a lot of good looking charts out there…… The Setup The market has been underweight software , outside of the “obvious” big 3 (MSFT, ORCL, PLTR). Investors have piled into hardware/semis as the “easier” AI trade → cyclicality + visible AI demand. Result: many software names trade at depressed multiples (~3–6x revs) despite strong consumption trends. Stifel’s call: with disinterest comes opportunity . Earnings beats and conferences have started to trigger outsized moves as investors try to get back onside. Catalysts Consumption trends are strong : MDB, SNOW, ESTC, FROG all delivered beats. M&A healthy in private markets → public software could rerate if investors believe in eventual takeout optionality. Conferences/Events: NOW, NET, PCOR, TENB, PCTY, FROG, WK, DT all gave encouraging commentary; near-term catalysts ahead from WDAY, ADSK, CRWD, MDB, INTU, OKTA. Winners (8.5 or higher = must own) ServiceNow (NOW) — 8.5/10 Edge: AI orchestration platform; 30% ASP uplift on AI features; Fed contracts recovering. Why now: Best positioned workflow OS; still growing into multiple adjacencies. Catalyst: Analyst/user events + pipeline conversion. MongoDB (MDB) — 8.5/10 Edge: Atlas growth re-accelerating; data layer a core AI beneficiary. Controversy: Postgres competition, but recent survey work points to durability. Catalyst: Continued Atlas consumption growth + new workloads. Snowflake (SNOW) — 8.5/10 Edge: 32% product rev growth; 125% NRR; strong AI workload attach. Why now: Re-accel story, conservative guide, multiple ways to win. Catalyst: Product attach (Snowpark, Dynamic Tables); AI budget allocations. Elastic (ESTC) — 8.5/10 Edge: Search/log/security convergence; beats/raises; security displacements rising. Why now: Under-owned, conservative guide. Catalyst: Pricing + federal wins. Potential Must-Owns (7.5–8.0, next leg up possible) JFrog (FROG) — 8/10 : Clear AI winner (“more code = more binaries”), security traction; back in AI conversation. Okta (OKTA) — 8/10 : One of last public identity names; attractive valuation (~5x revs). Needs to prove security posture post-breaches. Paylocity (PCTY) — 7.5/10 : Macro headwinds, but expansion into CFO/CIO adjacencies + poaching talent. Tenable (TENB) — 7.5/10 : Reframing as exposure mgmt, not just vuln mgmt; 3x rev multiple = washed out. Workiva (WK) — 7.5/10 : Pivot to profitability, 1,000bps OM upside, trades 4x revs. ESG drag fading. Neutral / Caution Datadog (DDOG) — 6.5/10 : Still messy; usage consumption should normalize, but noise remains. Fortinet (FTNT) — 6.5/10 : Execution issues; security rotation favors PANW/CRWD/ZS. Palo Alto (PANW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Zscaler (ZS), Cloudflare (NET) — 7–7.5/10 : Still core security names, but crowded trades; investors watching carefully. Re-Rating Stories ADSK (Autodesk) — 8/10 : Activist involvement; business model cleanup; clearer story. PTC — 7.5/10 : Past macro headwinds; CRO reinvigoration helps GTM. Big Picture The contrarian play is software. Hardware/semi is crowded; investors are already long. Software is under-owned, under-loved, trading cheap — yet consumption trends are healthy and AI workloads are real. 🧠 Summary Software has become the anti-consensus trade. While the Street hides in semis, names like ServiceNow, Snowflake, MongoDB, and Elastic are quietly beating and raising. Disinterest has created opportunity: these are the next AI must-owns. Ticker Rating Why Now Near-Term Catalysts NOW 8.5/10 AI orchestration, 30% ASP uplift, Fed momentum improving Analyst/user events; federal wins; pipeline conversion MDB 8.5/10 Atlas growth re-accel; data layer core to AI workloads Atlas consumption; new workloads SNOW 8.5/10 32% product rev growth; conservative guide; AI attach strong Snowpark/Dynamic Tables attach; AI project budgets ESTC 8.5/10 Search/log/security convergence; beats & raises; under-owned Pricing realization; federal tailwind follow-through FROG 8/10 Clear AI winner (“more code = more binaries”), security traction Security/Xray product momentum; Sept user event OKTA 8/10 Last public identity name; 5x revs attractive Execution in identity + security; product roadmap ADSK 8/10 Activist pressure; story cleanup Analyst Day; activist updates PCTY 7.5/10 Expanding into CFO/CIO adjacencies; talent poaching Macro stabilization; salesforce productivity TENB 7.5/10 Reframing to exposure mgmt; valuation washed out (3x rev) Uptake of Exposure Mgmt; customer adoption WK 7.5/10 Pivot to profitability; 1000bps OM upside; 4x rev Profitability focus; GTM realignment PTC 7.5/10 GTM reinvigoration; past macro headwinds fading CRO-driven execution improvements DDOG 6.5/10 Messy story; consumption recovery still uneven Consumption normalization; next earnings FTNT 6.5/10 Execution issues; losing share to PANW/CRWD/ZS Product traction; competitive positioning PANW/CRWD/ZS/NET 7–7.5/10 Core security leaders; but crowded trades Sector rotation; earnings beats The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover Tue, Sep 30, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT -Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead - How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes - 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market - How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns - Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns - 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds Click Below to Register The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover register.gotowebinar.com/register/2237592374108794972 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is ORCL….. It had some problems but as of this morning it looks like it’s pulling an undercut and rally at the 50 day. From Stifel this morning….. ❝ ORCL (Tues AMC) Given the company’s 8-K from June highlighting a strong start to FY26, in combination with solid results from the other hyperscalers (+Azure, +GCP, =AWS) and stable consumption trends from other June and July quarter peers, we believe ORCL is well positioned to post revenue growth (11-13% Y/Y-USD) and cloud growth (26-30% Y/Y-CC) above guidance . Looking forward, we note that management already delivered and raised the FY26 revenue guide to $67B (vs. $66B previously) and >20% FY27 growth guidance, but our expectations for a strong FY26, we believe management could raise these targets once again. 📬 --- In Case You Missed It — # (# ) 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0