희토류: 미국의 재쇼어링(Re-Shoring)은 현실입니다.누가 이기고, 누가 지는가

Rare Earths: U.S. Re-Shoring Is Real. Who Wins, Who Loses THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Rare Earths: U.S. Re-Shoring Is Real. Who Wins, Who Loses Rare Earths: U.S. Re-Shoring Is Real. Who Wins, Who Loses Sep 2, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🧠 Rare Earths: U.S. Re-Shoring Is Real. Who Wins, … 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now A rare red day in the market. The bears can hang on the fact that the QQQs closed under the 10 day MA and 20 day EMA…. But at worst the trend looks sideways, but keep an eye on NVDA. It could be shortable here, and certainly would qualify if it breaks the 50 day…. Jensen persuaded investors that everything was great with AI on Wednesday with lofty projections….. ❝ We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade. however DELL and MRVL earnings may be causing investors to reconsider. Looking at the rest of the Mag 7, META is testing it’s 50 day while MSFT closed below. Something to keep an eye on this week. Futures are starting the week in the red again today. A US Appeals Court declared the tariffs illegal, but allowed them to remain in place pending an appeal to the Supreme Court. We expect the Supreme Court to rule in favor of Trump so probably nothing to see hear. China is looking interesting to me here. A $23 Trillion Cash Pile Holds Key for Chinese Stocks’ Bull Run China’s stock rally is set to get a boost from small investors, stoking hopes that their massive savings will fuel the next leg of the market’s blistering advance. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-30/a-23-trillion-cash-pile-holds-key-for-chinese-stocks-bull-run I talked about BABA on Frida…. Here’s a monthly chart of KWEB….. I zoomed out to monthly to show that it is turning up but nowhere near the highs, while all the US Indices are at or near all time highs. Bitcoin continues to look problematic….. Ethereum could go either way….. Meanwhile Gold (GLD) looks like it wants to make new highs… And Silver (SLV) is making new highs… I continue to believe that if you are an investor you want exposure to all of these areas….. Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf 🧠 Rare Earths: U.S. Re-Shoring Is Real. Who Wins, Who Loses In looking for what are likely to be today and tomorrow’s hottest themes you just need to keep your eyes open. We’ve talked about rare earths a bunch in the newsletter and the podcast. From a thematic standpoint rare earths are metals we need where just about every aspect is controlled by China. Bringing that mining and refining here seems like something that has to happen, which creates an investable theme. I then watch the news every day for anything interesting about the themes I follow….. Rare earths miner targets US investment to rival Chinese supplies Australia’s Lynas raising more than $500mn to invest in capacity as governments seek more critical minerals www.ft.com/content/f088167c-d4bf-43e8-bcc5-d6aff8e33d6d When I see something like this I take a deep dive to see if there is anything new and investable. What just happened (and why it matters) Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC; OTC: LYSCF/LYSDY ) plans to raise ~A$825m to build inventory/capacity and take stakes in U.S. magnet makers —explicitly to capture the Western push to de-risk from China. Management also flagged uncertainty around the DoD-backed Seadrift (Texas) heavy-REE plant pending acceptable offtakes. Financial Times Reuters Seeking Alpha Washington is hardening policy : the U.S. has moved from grants to price-support/price floors and is taking equity in strategic firms (e.g., MP Materials ). The Pentagon’s new package positions the government as MP’s largest shareholder and expands domestic magnet capacity. Reuters CGEP Why this exists : China still dominates refining & ~90% of finished magnets , and has tightened export rules. The U.S. is backstopping a parallel, non-Chinese chain—mining → separation → magnets. The Wall Street Journal Winners & Losers (now through • 2027) Structural Winners Integrated non-China supply (mine → oxides → magnet) MP Materials (MP) — DoD “10X” magnet expansion; price supports + equity stake de-risk execution. Direct beneficiary of any U.S. price floor. MP Materials CGEP Lynas (LYC / LYSCF / LYSDY) — scale LRE/HRE producer outside China; fresh capital to bulk inventory and buy into U.S. magnet makers , plus heavy-REE capability. Upside torque if Seadrift offtake is nailed. Financial Times Reuters Energy Fuels (UUUU) — only U.S. facility currently separating REE oxides (pilot HREEs live; pathway to scaled NdPr/Dy as early as ’26–’27). Optionality on U.S. mining feed + recycling. PR Newswire Energy Fuels U.S. magnet capacity Noveon Magnetics (private, TX) — sintered NdFeB output and a multi-year supply deal (Nidec); capacity to 2k tpa with scale ambition. First movers capture policy dollars + defense orders. San Antonio Express-News IEEE Spectrum e-VAC Magnetics (VAC Group, SC) — new U.S. plant backed by DoD & tax credits; online from late 2025 ; tight auto/defense linkages. Fastmarketsvacuumschmelze.com Ucore (UCU.V / OTCQX: UURAF) — Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex with DoD funding; fresh Greenland heavy-REE offtake. A pure-play U.S. separation node. Ucore Rare Metals Reuters Recyclers & European processors (U.S./EU alignment) Solvay (La Rochelle) + recyclers (Cyclic Materials) — magnet-grade oxides in ’25; helps diversify feed and supports OEM FEOC compliance. Solvay Chemical & Engineering News Relative Losers Chinese processors & magnet exporters into U.S./DoD supply chains (losing share and pricing power where FEOC-compliant content is mandated). The Wall Street Journal Western juniors without offtake/finance —they face higher capex, long permitting, and now must compete with policy-backed U.S. nodes (think under-funded juniors lacking contracts). The Wall Street Journal Legacy turbine/centralized OEMs that bet on slow, large-unit grid additions over modular, local magnet supply—timing risk as demand outruns interconnections. (Inference from current DoD/industrial procurement trends.) The Wall Street Journal Who wins if the U.S. builds more mining and/or more refining? If mining expands first MP (MP) at Mountain Pass and Energy Fuels (UUUU) (monazite → oxides) gain immediate feedstock scale; American Rare Earths (ASX: ARR / ARRNF/AMRRY ) gets option value at Halleck Creek (WY) as test-mining & studies progress. Energy Fuels Yahoo Finance+1 U.S. magnet makers (Noveon, e-VAC) win as domestic feed reduces tariff/export-license risk and FEOC headaches. San Antonio Express-News Fastmarkets If refining/separation scales first Ucore (Louisiana) and Energy Fuels (UT) can arbitrage global feed (incl. Greenland/Tanbreez) and monetize price floors + offtakes faster than greenfield mines can reach steady state. OEMs/DoD get near-term FEOC-compliant oxides , accelerating magnet procurement. Reuters Ucore Rare Metals Is Lynas a buy here? Thesis (2–3 years): Selective Buy / “size to risk” Positives: largest non-China producer, now with heavy-REE capability; fresh capital to deepen inventory and step into magnets via equity stakes; governments (U.S./AU/JP) are actively shaping a price-supported market. If Seadrift secures offtake on Lynas-acceptable terms, the rerate can be meaningful. Financial Times Reuters+1 Watch-outs: near-term dilution from the raise; execution timing (management guided Seadrift uncertainty); REE price volatility ; China’s ability to pressure prices; and any hiccups around Malaysia/Kalgoorlie ramp logistics. Reuters Positioning call: treat pullbacks as entry points aligned to contract/price-floor headlines (U.S. offtake, magnet stakes) rather than chasing strength on news-day spikes. Quick primer: LYSCF vs. LYSDY (both U.S.-traded Lynas tickers) LYSCF = a foreign ordinary (“F-share”) that represents the actual ASX ordinary share quoted OTC in USD. Trades/settles via OTC market makers. (Often tighter reflection of local price; no depository fees, but broker may apply foreign ordinary fees.) OTC Markets Schwab Brokerage Schwab Brokerage LYSDY = the Level I ADR (sponsored by BNY Mellon ), 1 ADR = 1 ordinary share . Dividends, if any, are paid in USD; ADRs can carry small annual depository fees but are operationally simpler for many U.S. accounts. Lynas Rare Earths Which to use? For most U.S. investors, LYSDY is simpler. If you care about mirroring ASX pricing and your broker supports it well, LYSCF can be fine. (Liquidity and fees vary by broker.) What to watch next (add these to the tape) Formal U.S. price-floor mechanisms and purchase guarantees (final terms, duration, indexation). This is the flywheel for bankability. Reuters Hinrich Foundation Lynas offtake disclosures for Seadrift + any announced stakes in U.S. magnet makers (this is the downstream move that tightens their moat). Financial Times MP/DoD build milestones at Texas magnets; any expansion in government equity/convertible support. MP Materials CGEP Ucore commissioning path and feedstock contracts; first oxide shipments. Ucore Rare Metals Reuters Noveon & e-VAC capacity ramps and new OEM contracts. San Antonio Express-Newsvacuumschmelze.com Bottom line The trade: overweight MP , UUUU , select Lynas (LYSDY/LYSCF) on weakness; The catalyst map: U.S. price floors + equity stakes + FEOC rules are reshaping where magnets come from. Names that sit at U.S. mines/separation/magnet nodes are the asymmetric winners; under-funded juniors without offtakes are the laggards. Reuters The Wall Street Journal Winners vs. Losers Breakdown Category Winners Losers Mining MP Materials (MP) – U.S.-based, DoD-backed magnet capacity; price floors & equity support accelerate. Chinese mining/refiners – losing Western market share amid FEOC pressure. Energy Fuels (UUUU) – U.S. separation node for REOs; recycling optionality. Undercapitalized juniors w/out offtakes – execution and finance risk. Refining / Separating Ucore (UURAF) – Strategic Metals Complex in Louisiana, DoD-funded separation. Chinese separation/exporters – policy barriers ahead. Magnet Production Noveon / e-VAC Magnetics – U.S. manufacturing backed by DoD/tax credits. Centralized grid/gas turbine suppliers lacking modular alternatives. Integrated Miner (Lynas) Lynas (LYC / LYSCF / LYSDY) – Global reach + capital to invest in magnet supply chain; poised for re-rate on Seadrift clarity. Overhang from Texas execution uncertainty could delay value realization. Quick Reference: LYSCF vs LYSDY Ticker Description Highlights LYSCF OTC-listed “Foreign Ordinary” representing the actual ASX share in USD Tracks local ASX price closely; may have better liquidity or lower fees on some platforms. LYSDY Sponsored Level I ADR via BNY Mellon ("1 ADR = 1 ordinary share") Simplifies trading for U.S. investors; dividends paid in USD; more user-friendly structure. ( lynasrareearths.com , turn0search • 6) Bottom line : LYSDY is typically the easier ticker for U.S. accounts; LYSCF is the more direct ASX-reflective version. The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover Tue, Sep 30, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT -Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead - How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes - 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market - How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns - Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns - 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds Click Below to Register The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover register.gotowebinar.com/register/2237592374108794972 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is Baidu (BIDU)….. The daily chart is messy, but on the weekly it looks like it is starting to perk up. 📬 --- In Case You Missed It The key difference between Income Blast and other option income ETFs….. — # (# ) 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0