원자력의 AI 르네상스: 승자와 패자, 그리고 투자 플레이북

Nuclear’s AI Renaissance: Winners, Losers, and the Investment Playbook THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Nuclear’s AI Renaissance: Winners, Losers, and the Investment Playbook Nuclear’s AI Renaissance: Winners, Losers, and the Investment Playbook Sep 22, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🔋 Nuclear’s AI Renaissance: Winners, Losers, and … Newsletter Wrap 📈 Stock Corner 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now The market keeps going higher on the back of a dovish Fed and AI capex spending….. Oracle shares spike on report of talks with Meta about $20B AI computing deal CNBC's MacKenzie Sigalos reports on why shares of Oracle are spiking. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/09/19/oracle-shares-spike-on-report-of-talks-with-meta-about-20b-ai-computing-deal.html I believe the White House posted this…. Keeping with our Trump’s inner circle theme, hard not to be bullish. People now talking about the sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur adage. I don’t put any stock into seasonals, but we are way overbought and some sort of technical pullback should happen. Doesn’t mean it will, but I’d buy it if it does. Interestingly, homebuilders and Treasuries have sold off after the Fed rate cuts…. Homebuilders may just be a buy the rumor, sell the fact, but something to keep an eye on. TLT I warned you about, probably just rates getting to extremes….. Why the bull market for stocks may now hinge on the 10-year Treasury yield With stocks at record highs, Ron Albahary Albahary at Laird Norton has been leaning into ways to hedge volatility while “hedging is cheap.” www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-bull-market-for-stocks-may-now-hinge-on-the-10-year-treasury-yield-fa5a973c?mod=home_lead This needs to be monitored. The Fed controls short rates, but traders control intermediate and long rates. If they don’t play ball then cutting the short end doesn’t help a ton. This is a great sight for TSLA bulls….. Bitcoin dipped below the 50 day moving average this morning….. As did Ethereum… Meanwhile, gold is moving higher. I continue to believe you need both crypto AND precious metals in your portfolio. Rareview 2X Bull Cryptocurrency & Precious Metals ETF The Rareview Total Return Bond ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide a total return through the combination of current income and capital appreciation. rareviewcapital.com/2x-bull-cryptocurrency-precious-metals-etf 🔋 Nuclear’s AI Renaissance: Winners, Losers, and the Investment Playbook Nuclear was the story on Friday hence today’s deep dive…. Forget chips: The next battleground in the U.S.-China AI race is nuclear power The race for AI supremacy is quickly becoming a race for energy supremacy. As the U.S. lags China in nuclear development, both the government and Big Tech are making a massive new push to close the gap. www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-chips-the-next-battleground-in-the-u-s-china-ai-race-is-nuclear-power-4c92b278?mod=home_lead To fuel AI’s insatiable appetite, Nvidia and Big Tech double down on nuclear Nvidia joins Google in backing nuclear-fusion startup Commonwealth Fusion Systems. www.marketwatch.com/story/to-fuel-ais-insatiable-appetite-nvidia-and-big-tech-are-doubling-down-on-nuclear-0cf9d122?mod=home_lead Why Now? AI’s insatiable energy demand is forcing Big Tech to look beyond renewables → Goldman Sachs: datacenter power demand +160% by 2030 . Fusion is attracting billions from Nvidia, Google, Morgan Stanley, Mitsui, Laurene Powell Jobs, and Druckenmiller. Commonwealth Fusion Systems (MIT spinout) has raised $3B+ , aiming for proof-of-concept (SPARC, MA) by 2027 and a commercial Virginia plant in the early 2030s. Fission (today’s tech) is back too: U.S. utilities like NextEra, Constellation, and Holtec are restarting mothballed reactors (Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan) because firm power is scarce and new tax subsidies have reset nuclear’s economics. Policy tailwinds: massive U.S. tax credits (new floor under nuclear prices) + state deals with hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft) make nuclear newly bankable. Winners vs. Losers ✅ Winners Big Tech (demand pull + equity optionality) Nvidia ($NVDA) – investing via NVentures in both Commonwealth Fusion Systems and TerraPower ; also the primary driver of AI workloads demanding nuclear baseload. Rating: 9/10 Google ($GOOG/GOOGL) – direct equity + PPA with Commonwealth (200 MW fusion power by 2030s); $9B datacenter build in Virginia, co-located with nuclear projects. Rating: 9/10 Microsoft ($MSFT) – backing TerraPower (Bill Gates), actively seeking nuclear PPAs for datacenters. Rating: 8/10 Nuclear Operators (cash flow via restarts) NextEra Energy ($NEE) – reviving Duane Arnold (IA) ; earnings kicker as subsidies + AI PPAs underpin profitability. Rating: 8/10 Constellation Energy ($CEG) – restarting Three Mile Island unit ; largest U.S. nuclear operator, levered to subsidies + corporate PPAs. Rating: 9/10 Holtec (private) – restarting Palisades (MI) ; proving even private operators see clear ROI. Rating: 7/10 Uranium & Fuel Suppliers Cameco ($CCJ) – uranium giant; higher reactor fleet utilization = higher demand. Rating: 8/10 NexGen Energy ($NXE) – high-grade Athabasca Basin deposits; positioned for long-term growth. Rating: 7/10 Centrus Energy ($LEU) – only U.S. commercial enricher; uniquely levered to fuel cycle security. Rating: 9/10 Fusion Optionality (private, high-risk/high-reward) Commonwealth Fusion Systems (private) – best-capitalized fusion startup; targeting demo by 2027. Helion Energy (private) – backed by Sam Altman + MSFT deal for power offtake by 2030. TAE Technologies (private) – niche plasma approach, raised billions. Fusion is not investable yet, but equity stakes/early investors (NVDA, GOOG, Gates) get optionality. ❌ Losers Natural gas peaker operators → Losing premium contracts as hyperscalers want carbon-free firm power. Rating: 3/10 Slow-moving European utilities (e.g., EDF) → weighed down by political headwinds, not moving fast enough to capture AI-driven demand. Rating: 4/10 Pure-play renewables (wind/solar) without storage → still grow, but face margin pressure as Big Tech prioritizes reliability over intermittency. Rating: 5/10 Anti-nuclear ESG funds → risk underperformance as capital rotates into nuclear. Rating: 2/10 Strategic Takeaways Two tracks of opportunity: Fission (now): Restarts, subsidies, AI PPAs = cash flow in 2025–30 . Fusion (future): 2027–2035 optionality; backdoor exposure via NVDA, GOOG, MSFT, Mitsui. Policy as catalyst: Tax floors + ITCs make nuclear bankable. DoD + DOE likely to add more funding for both fission restarts and fusion moonshots. Investor Asymmetry: Core longs: $CEG, $NEE, $CCJ, $LEU. Growth torque: $NVDA, $GOOGL, $MSFT (fusion optionality). Hedge: Underweight gas utilities & intermittent renewables without storage. 📈 Ratings Summary Ticker Company Focus Rating (1– • 10) CEG Constellation Energy Largest U.S. nuclear operator + restart optionality 9 LEU Centrus Energy U.S. fuel enrichment monopoly 9 NVDA Nvidia AI demand driver + fusion equity 9 GOOGL Google Fusion PPA + equity + datacenter buildout 9 NEE NextEra Restart Duane Arnold; diversified renewables/nuclear 8 MSFT Microsoft TerraPower + AI datacenter demand 8 CCJ Cameco Uranium producer 8 NXE NexGen Energy Uranium developer 7 Holtec (private) Palisades restart 7 Pure-play renewables Wind/solar w/out storage 5 Gas peaker plants Fossil capacity providers 3 Newsletter Wrap AI is forcing a nuclear renaissance : Fission restarts are immediate, profitable, and subsidy-backed. Fusion startups are well-funded, with Big Tech equity optionality. Winners : Constellation, Centrus, Cameco, NextEra, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft. Losers : gas peakers, renewables without storage, anti-nuclear ESG. Translation for investors: Own nuclear operators, fuel cycle plays, and Big Tech names with fusion equity exposure. Treat fusion as a free option embedded in tech giants —and size uranium/fuel suppliers as the more immediate hedge against the AI power crunch. ⏳ Nuclear Energy Timeline: Fission vs. Fusion (2025– • 2040) 2025–2030 → Fission Restarts + SMR Pilots 2025–28: NextEra restarts Duane Arnold (IA). Constellation revives Three Mile Island (PA). Holtec restarts Palisades (MI). U.S. nuclear fleet benefits from extended subsidies + hyperscaler PPAs (Amazon, Microsoft). 2027–30: First SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) online (NuScale, TerraPower Natrium pilot). Incremental uranium demand builds (Cameco, NexGen, Centrus). 2030–2035 → SMR Scaling + First Fusion Demo Plants 2030: Google begins PPA from Commonwealth Fusion’s Chesterfield, VA plant (if timeline holds). First scaled SMRs enter service at U.S. utilities. 2032–35: Fusion “first light” pilots feeding limited commercial load (Commonwealth SPARC → ARC; Helion/MSFT demo). Fission still dominates baseline nuclear generation. 2035–2040 → Fusion as Commercial Option Mid-to-late 2030s: Commonwealth, Helion, TAE target steady-state commercial fusion. If successful, fusion PPAs emerge as a carbon-free baseload directly tied to AI/data center demand. 2040+: Fusion potentially displaces gas + even fission over time (farther-dated scenario). Key Investor Implications 2025–30 (Now) : Play the fission restart cash flows (Constellation $CEG, NextEra $NEE, Centrus $LEU, Cameco $CCJ). 2030–35 (Transition) : SMR developers + utilities adopting them. 2035–40 (Optionality) : Fusion equity embedded in $NVDA, $GOOG, $MSFT, plus private stakes (Commonwealth, Helion). ⚛️ Nuclear Stocks Are Soaring — Do These 3 SPACs Belong on Your Buy List? Another way to play this is through pre merger SPACs. Until the merger is finalized you have an NAV floor. For more information about SPACs….. SPCX: The SPAC and New Issue ETF Investment Objective: The SPAC and New Issue ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to provide total return. www.spcxetf.com The setup (why this is happening) AI data centers, onshoring, and grid reliability have pushed firm, carbon-free baseload from “nice-to-have” to strategic . Utilities are signing multi-decade contracts; hyperscalers are striking nuclear PPAs. Scarcity of investable pure-plays is juicing returns. SPACs are back as a fast-track for nuclear startups, even though the vehicle’s historic returns are poor on average. The exception: SMR/advanced nuclear names (Oklo, NuScale, Nano Nuclear) that rallied hard on scarcity + narrative—despite zero revenue. Bottom line: There is real demand for nuclear; public-market supply of credible names is thin. That makes this next SPAC tranche investable only if the fundamentals (technology, licensing, financing, offtake) survive contact with reality. The 3 new SPACs — what matters, not the sizzle • 1) Terra Innovatum (GRST) — ultra-small “cube” reactors (~1 MWe) What it is: Micro-reactors (≈1 MWe), modular 10-meter cubes deployable singly or in clusters—aimed at mines, remote industry, campuses, hotels. Edge: If validated, factory-built, drop-in power solves impossible-to-serve load pockets and microgrids. Fastest potential TAM expansion (lots of small sites). Show-me risks: Security & ops at many distributed sites; lifecycle cost (fueling, staffing, insurance) at micro scale; multi-site regulatory complexity. First-of-a-kind (FOAK) risk is high. My read: High upside, high execution risk. Needs a pilot + paying customer in a regulated jurisdiction and a clear LCOE to graduate from story to stock. • 2) Terrestrial Energy (HOND)— 390 MWe molten-salt (MSR) SMR What it is: A Generation IV molten-salt reactor (Integrated Molten Salt Reactor, ~390 MWe). Better thermal efficiency, potentially safer passive cooling, high-grade heat for industrials. Edge: Selected in a DOE pilot cohort; partnerships can shorten the crawl to FOAK. Industrial heat (chemicals, steel, hydrogen) is a prize most SMRs can’t reach economically. Show-me risks: Novel fuel/coolant licensing is hard; supply chain for salt-compatible alloys; schedule risk (permitting, NRC). My read: The most institutionally credible of the trio if it converts DOE pilot momentum into site, schedule, and offtake . Still FOAK—expect slips. • 3) Eagle Energy Metals (SVII) — uranium miner + liquid metal SMR license What it is: Dual track: ( • 1) Oregon uranium project billed as the largest mineable measured/indicated U.S. deposit (targeting 1–4 M lbs/yr by ~2032), ( • 2) licensed liquid-metal SMR IP (secondary to the mine). Edge: U.S. uranium supply is policy priority ; if geology + economics are real, a domestic source is strategic. Show-me risks: Awkward fit (mining + reactor dev ≠ same muscle); a decade to revenue; heavy capex; NEPA/permitting risk; dilution risk. My read: Treat as uranium optionality with a reactor story kicker—not a near-term SMR developer. The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover Tue, Sep 30, 2025 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM EDT -Why the 60/40 strategy is dead and what to do instead - How to use AI to uncover today and tomorrow's hottest themes - 4 unknown edges that still exist in today's market - How to set up your portfolio for asymmetrical returns - Little-known asset class that has limited risk and potentially unlimited returns - 4 ways to hedge your portfolio that don't include bonds Click Below to Register The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Never Discover register.gotowebinar.com/register/2237592374108794972 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is BitMine (BMNR)…… Full disclosure, we have the 2x (BMNU) launching this week. BMNR is the world’s largest corporate Ethereum holder and it’s posted pocket pivots the past couple of days. Looks like it’s down fairly nicely this morning on the back of the drop in Ethereum…. ❝ A Pocket Pivot is a technical buy signal popularized by Gil Morales and Chris Kacher (former protégés of William O’Neil) that identifies early signs of institutional accumulation before a stock breaks out of a traditional base. Setup: The stock is trading in a base or along a key moving average (often the 10-day or 20-day). Signal: It posts an up day with volume higher than any down day in the prior 10 trading sessions . Interpretation: Institutions are quietly stepping in, supporting the stock and potentially preparing it for a breakout. Pocket pivots are designed to get you into a leader earlier than waiting for a classic breakout above resistance, giving you lower risk entries and better reward asymmetry. I just came back from Korea and they love this name. It could act like MSTR does, which is a proxy for people who can’t buy Bitcoin. In Korea they cannot yet buy spot crypto ETFs, but they can buy BMNR. 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0