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Jobs In Focus THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Jobs In Focus Jobs In Focus The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle May 2, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: Jobs in focus Deep dive on AMZN, AAPL, META, and MSFT earings Betting on Trump’s winners and more…….. ETF Model Portfolio Changes We are bringing TBIL down to 25% and adding SPCX at a 5% weighting. Things are starting to move again in the SPAC market. More information here….. Fund Info www.spcxetf.com Next Webinar: Tariffs, Inflation, and Recession: What To Do Now 5/22 2pm EST GoTo Webinar dashboard.gotowebinar.com/webinar/6733673538207782492 Jobs in Focus Don’t forget about the tax losses also….. — # (# ) Another positive day on the back of META and MSFT earnings and reports that China could start negotiations soon. Can’t help but agree with Mohit here…. ❝ Our view is that market's focus would shift to the tariff impact and economic data rather than just headlines. And we see a weakening in the data going forward. Thus, we see a limited room for further rally in risky assets and would reduce our exposure to US assets. Mohit Kumar-Jefferies But, the whole back and forth with China make it more difficult than usual to navigate this market. It’s hard to figure out how this back and forth ends… ❝ China’s Commerce Ministry said in a Friday statement that it had noted senior US officials repeatedly expressing their willingness to talk to Beijing about tariffs, and urged officials in Washington to show “sincerity” towards China. “The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry added. “China is currently evaluating this.” - Bloomberg Today we have the jobs number. My expectation is that it will be a bit weaker than forecast. I’m going to be on News Nation at 7:40AM this morning to talk about it. April jobs report to give first hard evidence on whether trade wars have hurt hiring Americans say jobs are harder to find and businesses say they are scaling back plans to hire because of the trade wars. The April jobs report might offer the first hard evidence on whether President Donald Trump’s tariffs are harming the U.S. labor market. www.marketwatch.com/story/april-jobs-report-to-give-first-hard-evidence-on-whether-trade-wars-have-hurt-hiring-0015e44f?mod=home_lead Just like the GDP I don’t see this number reflecting the tariffs yet, so I don’t think you get much guidance on what’s really going on in the economy. However, I do think a weakish number gives the Fed shade to lower rates more aggressively, which interestingly enough is what Trump wants. I think one big takeaway from the recent earnings is that it is safer to start getting back into the AI and AI infrastructure names. Jefferies put out a piece last night…. ❝ AI Software Deep Dive: Top Debates Into 2025 (Brent Thill). Brent thinks investors should position now for the significant AI rev. likely coming in late ‘25/’26. For enterprise, he recommends MSFT and AMZN, noting Azure AI rev. will grow tangibly in ’25 as model production ramps and AMZN should benefit from its leading cloud position. For consumer, he sees oppty for META and GOOGL to improve advertiser ROI. Finally, Brent sees SNOW as a potential breakout play as AI contributions support improving margins in the next 2-3Y after a trough in ’24. Had some great earnings from some of the infrastructure names…. — # (# ) I had GPT do quick rundown on AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and META earnings…. Apple (AAPL) Q2 revenue $95.4 B (+5% YoY); EPS $1.65 (+8%) Services hit all-time high ($26.6 B); iPhone sales outperformed estimates Tariff headwinds in China (~$900 M cost pressure) and modest growth keep us at Hold Rating: Short 7/10 Medium 8/10 Long 8/10 Here’s why Apple’s stock is getting dumped despite solid earnings results iPhone sales beat Wall Street’s expectations but Apple’s vagueness around tariff impacts didn’t sit well with investors. www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-apples-stock-is-getting-dumped-despite-solid-earnings-results-bbcfe46b?mod=home_lead Amazon (AMZN) Q1 net sales $155.7 B (+9%); AWS $29.3 B (+17%) Operating income up sharply on efficiency cuts; Q2 guidance wide amid tariff uncertainty Consumer stock-up ahead of potential tariffs noted; mix of strength and caution Buy on pullbacks—long-term cloud and e-commerce secular tailwinds Rating: Short 6/10 Medium 8/10 Long 9/10 Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 revenue $70.1 B (+13%); EPS $3.46 vs. $3.22 est. Azure grew 33% (16 pts from AI workloads); raised Azure guidance to 34–35% Heavy AI/data-center capex ($21.4 B) underpins long-term moat Stellar beat and guidance send shares higher— Buy for all horizons Rating: Short 9/10 Medium 9/10 Long 10/10 · Meta (META) Q1 revenue $42.3 B (+16%); EPS $6.43 (+37%) Ad revenue rebound drives margin to 41%; capex into AI/data centers doubled Reality Labs still unprofitable but AI rollout (Meta AI) hits 1 B users Aggressive buybacks and strong Q2 guidance— Buy for growth and value Rating: Short 8/10 Medium 9/10 Long 8/10 Broader Takeaways Resilient spending: Consumer demand (iPhone, e-commerce) and enterprise IT (cloud/AI) remain robust despite rate hikes. Tariff watch: U.S.–China tariffs pose a modest near-term risk; supply-chain diversification is in motion. AI boom: Massive capex from MSFT and META underscores an AI-driven investment cycle adding to GDP growth. Market leadership: Big Tech continues to prop up equity indices, but watch for concentration risk and macro headwinds. What Big Tech Has Going for It in the Trade War Apple and Amazon’s exposure remains a worry, but tariffs haven’t yet hobbled trillion-dollar tech giants www.wsj.com/finance/what-big-tech-has-going-for-it-in-the-trade-war-41174fa0?mod=hp_lead_pos4 SNOW is an interesting one, we launched a 2x on it the other day (SNOU), I do own a bit. If you like breakouts then you should like SNOW…. One of my biggest focus areas at the moment is Trump’s preferred winners. I did go back into NVDA yesterday on the META and MSFT earnings, but also because he had Jensen speak at the White House. I think Trump will do everything he can to have NVDA come out a winner in all of this. I also agree with Shay…… — # (# ) but this Huawei news is something to keep an eye on….. — # (# ) Another area of fertile ground for the Trump winners are SPACs, especially Cantor SPACs (Howard Lutnick used to run Cantor and now his kids do)….. — # (# ) SPCX ETF The SPAC and New Issue ETF www.spcxetf.com Speaking of Trump themes, European Defense stocks haven’t been in the news much lately, but this theme is still going strong… Europe Is Racing to Build Its Own Version of the U.S. Military-Industrial Complex European defense will be reshaped, creating opportunities for industry and investors www.wsj.com/finance/europe-defense-us-military-industrial-complex-61ea9654?mod=hp_lead_pos11 Invest in Europe’s Aerospace and Defense Future with EUAD www.select-funds.com How Did You Like Today's Newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before you go: Here are ways I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Wealth Management-Coming Soon Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0