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Is It Safe To Get Back In The Water? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Is It Safe To Get Back In The Water? Is It Safe To Get Back In The Water? The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle Apr 8, 2025 Subscribe now Share — # (# ) In Today’s Issue: China vows to fight to the end Is it safe to get back in the water? Tariff deal potential winners and more…….. Announcements Our Next Webinar Trump’s Plan For the Economy and How It Impacts Your Investments Thursday April 24, 2-3pm EST Register Today on the Rebel Finance Podcast we talk tariffs, the markets, and our special guest is Grant Bailey, a stock analyst who also happens to still be in high school. The Rebel Finance Podcast Break Free from Wall Street’s Playbook with The Rebel Finance Podcast Tired of the same old investment advice from the same old institutions? Rebel Finance is where AI-driven insights meet independent thinking. We cut through the hype, separate market news from market noise, and uncover real opportunities Wall Street won’t talk about. Subscribe now and start investing like a rebel. www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap — # (# ) News & Noise 🧠 News: China Vows to ‘Fight to the End’ After Trump’s Latest Tariff Threat -WSJ The False Tariff Headline That Sent Stocks on a $2 Trillion Ride -WSJ Selling out during the market’s worst days can hurt you, research shows — here’s how much you could lose -CNBC.com Why we tell you to always have hedges in place. If you are properly hedged then you can probably withstand whatever is going on short term. Yes, bad can always get worse, but it’s better to prepare for selloffs before they happen than to try to react in real time. Shopify CEO says staffers need to prove jobs can’t be done by AI before asking for more headcount -CNBC.com ❌ Noise: Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Check Your Portfolio Right Now -WSJ You should definitely check your portfolio right now. If you are afraid to that means you are taking too much risk. Also, a bounce gives you a chance to rejigger things if they need to be rejiggered. How Far Does the Market Have to Fall Before It’s Time to Buy? -WSJ Impossible to know that right now. The Stock Market’s Fear Gauges Point to a Bounce, Not a Bottom -WSJ All the VIX is telling you is what you already know, people are scared. Yes there will be a bounce, and yes, it will probably be a suckers rally. Opinion: ‘A 50% correction is probable.’ Why this veteran stock trader is 100% in cash. -MarketWatch “Veteran Stock Trader” tells you why he’s in cash, this was the most telegraphed market selloff I’ve ever seen. Is a 50% correction probable? Sure, anything is possible. I’ve seen negative oil, flash crashes, Black Monday, Volmegeddon, etc, so anything is possible. What Wall Street Is Saying BlackRock Larry Fink on Bloomberg….. ❝ “I see it more as a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity, but that doesn’t mean we can’t go down further” “I would not be taking money off the table right now. It’s a great entry level. The macro trends are not gonna change (eg US tech innovation, AI etc).” BTIG Jonathan Krinsky….. ❝ When markets gets so oversold, it can become increasingly difficult to press lower, even on perceived 'bad news.' SPY is likely going to print an all-time record notional volume day today, another indication of capitulation. The worst may not be over, but we're likely at a point where near-term risk/reward skews highly to the upside. Jones Trading Mike O’Rourke….. ❝ Barring a policy reversal by the Trump Administration or some type of surprise trade agreement announced this week, today should be little more than a short-term low. While the S&P 500 is experiencing a "20% off sale" from its peak price 6 weeks ago, that only means its price is lower than it was 6 weeks ago. If the Administration follows through on Wednesday, the earnings outlook on April 9 th will be vastly diminished relative to that of February 19 th . As earnings season gets underway this week, investors must be prepared for 5 to 6 weeks of persistent daily negative headlines from companies. Jefferies….. ❝ CHINA BLINKS ….. UNLIKELY …unless achieved in a face saving manner…huge credibility at risk.. China will not bow to fresh Trump tariff threat, embassy says …and China has ability to stomach far greater pain…and Chinese exports already diversified with Global South increasing from c29% to c37% and G& decreasing from 35% to 28% ( 2017- • 2025) EU BLINKS…POSSIBLE … esp. as they have signalled a preference for negotiations and have set a date for retaliatory tariffs for mid-May… buying time for discussions whilst suggesting zero for zero tariff products. Is It Safe To Get Back In The Water? The bulls did what they had to do yesterday as SPY opened down big and closed near flat and QQQ ended green. If you are a trader we now have levels to trade off. For SPY it’s 481.80, which was yesterday’s low and now becomes a line in the sand. You also have the August lows of 505.48….. SPY tried for an undercut and rally there yesterday but failed, as I write this we are a bit over 511, so the undercut and rally is in force. As a swing trader (or a day trader) you now have levels and discernable patterns to trade off of if you so choose. As a long term investors have we seen THE low? Experience tells me we haven’t, but this is an entirely different situation, anything is possible. My favorite trade has been long bonds (TLT) which got wrecked yesterday. I saw this out of Zero Hedge which gave me pause. If China decides to sell our bonds that’s a problem, talk about 4D chess…… — # (# ) Tariff Deal Potential Winners As it is highly likely we will start to see deals struck between the US and at least some trading partners in the coming days I had GPT try to find potential winners based on countries most likely to deal….. The tariff announcements are likely a negotiation ceiling , not a permanent fixture. Trump’s playbook favors bilateral wins — countries with leverage and political alignment are likely to cut deals. Companies deeply exposed to these regions — especially in apparel, consumer, semis, travel, and industrials — will see a re-rating on easing trade friction. We also agree with their top countries: UK, Japan, Vietnam, India, Cambodia — particularly Vietnam and India due to their massive roles in U.S. supply chains. 🧠 Buy List — Ranked 1 to 10 🔟 = Strong Buy | 🟡 = Watchlist 1. First Solar (FSLR) – 10/10 Why : U.S.-based, but heavily exposed to India for future growth. Will benefit from easing tariffs on solar components. Edge : Clean energy + geopolitical lever = asymmetry. Tariff Play : India, Vietnam 2. Nike (NKE) – 9.5/10 Why : Massive Vietnam exposure (over 50% of footwear manufacturing), also active in Cambodia and India. Edge : Heavily punished, but brand and global moat intact. Tariff Play : Vietnam, Cambodia, India 3. Amazon (AMZN) – 9/10 Why : UK and Japan are large fulfillment, sales, and sourcing hubs. Stock punished, but structural story intact. Edge : Resilient e-commerce and AWS growth. Tariff Play : UK, Japan 4. Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) – 8.5/10 Why : Fabless chipmaker with exposure to Japan’s high-value semiconductor ecosystem. Heavily sold off. Edge : Strong positioning in edge AI and industrial. Tariff Play : Japan 5. VF Corp (VFC) – 8.5/10 Why : Portfolio of brands (North Face, Vans, etc.) deeply rooted in Vietnam and Cambodia manufacturing. Edge : Oversold, low expectations, levered to rebound. Tariff Play : Vietnam, Cambodia 6. Macy’s (M) – 8/10 Why : Heavy exposure to Vietnamese and Indian goods. Tariff relief would be a margin booster. Edge : Not a secular grower, but tactical trade opportunity. Tariff Play : Vietnam, India 7. RH (Restoration Hardware) – 8/10 Why : Hit hard due to Vietnam exposure. Luxury + macro-sensitive. Edge : A discretionary rebound trade. Tariff Play : Vietnam 8. REXR (Rexford Industrial) – 7.5/10 Why : Not an obvious pick, but industrial REITs benefit as supply chains normalize. Japan and Vietnam tie-ins. Edge : Quiet way to play re-shoring + normalization. Tariff Play : Japan, Vietnam 9. Caleres (MODG) – 7/10 Why : Global footwear brand w/Vietnam sourcing. Retail rebound + tariff rollback = tailwind. Edge : Tactical trade, but not a core hold. Tariff Play : Vietnam, Japan 10. The Gap (GPS) – 6.5/10 Why : Deep Vietnam/Cambodia exposure. Valuation cheap, but execution weak. Edge : Needs a lot to go right — could be a value trap. Tariff Play : Vietnam, Cambodia 🟡 Honorable Mentions (Watchlist Status) Stock Rationale BA (Boeing) Highly sensitive to Japan/India trade. Could pop, but geopolitical risk remains. TPR (Tapestry) Fashion plays are all beta to tariff headlines, but fundamentals are spotty. ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch) Cambodia/Vietnam exposure. Oversold, but not a secular growth story. HCC (Warrior Met Coal) India exposure + steel inputs. A play on industrial normalization. DECK (Deckers) Good brand portfolio. Slightly expensive, but tied to Vietnam rebound. INTC (Intel) Long-term story tied to foundry shift, but tactically oversold. 🧭 Summary Rank Ticker Name 1 FSLR First Solar 2 NKE Nike 3 AMZN Amazon 4 LSCC Lattice Semiconductor 5 VFC VF Corp Links Twitter YouTube LinkedIn Before you go: Here are ways I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Wealth Management-Coming Soon Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0