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Four Up Days In a Row, Are We Out of the Woods? THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Four Up Days In a Row, Are We Out of the Woods? Four Up Days In a Row, Are We Out of the Woods? The 🔥 --- H.E.A.T.🔥 Formula : AI Driven Insights to Spark Your Portfolio Matthew Tuttle Apr 28, 2025 Subscribe now Share In Today’s Issue: BWTG outperforms the market Are SPACs back? Four up days in a row, are we out of the woods? Using AI to parse earnings releases Using AI to parse clinical trials Primer on bullish option strategies and more…….. Bottom Line : This market looks like it is expecting a flurry of trade deals. For now, you can slowly add back equity exposure. Keep your head on a swivel and be ready for any rug pull though, it’s unlikely we are out of the woods and Trump could say just about anything. Lots of earnings this week as well. Brendan Wood TopGun ETF (BWTG)… Outperforms the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq... Calm In The Tarrif Storm April 25th 2025 Despite severe tariff headwinds BWTG's global portfolio of TopGun* companies outperforms again. This time not for the 42% rate of return achieved in its first fair weather year but for its exceptional calm and resiliency in turbulent adverse markets. Even negative Morningstar ranked BWTG in its first percentile of performance year to date. The portfolio aims to compete more effectively for capital in good and bad times by selecting TopGun companies. Namely, those companies in highest demand by professional investors based upon their investment qualities. BWTG sticks to the Brendan Wood Worldwide Shareholder Network which informs its choice of TopGun investment targets. *TopGun Companies are selected based upon +/- 2000 personal consultations with large cap global portfolio managers who rate 1400 big cap issuers against multiple investment quality criteria. The top scoring two percent are designated TopGuns. YTD Rate of Return (Market Price) (Source Bloomberg): BWTG =  +0.1% (As of April 15th) DOW Jones = -4.75% (As of April 15th) S&P 500  = -8.09% (As of April 15th) Nasdaq = -12.84% (As of April 15th) S ource: Bloomberg. The chart shows performance of the BWTG ETF (at market price), the S&P 500 Index, the Dow Jones Index and the Nasdaq Index, since the ETF's inception of 11/9/23 to 04/15/2025. The S&P 500 Index represents the stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and it is not possible to invest in them directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. To see full performance data. The performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. For the most recent quarter-end performance, please call 416-924-8110 or visit the Fund’s website at www.brendanwoodtopgunetf.com . Returns less than one year are not annualized. Short term performance, in particular, is not a good indication of the fund’s future performance, and an investment should not be made based solely on returns. ETF performance presented by the market price does not include sales charges and investment performance would be lower if investor fees were deducted, The total annual expense ratio for the ETF is .95%. Market performance is the price at which shares in the ETF can be bought or sold on the exchanges during trading hours, while the net asset value (NAV) represents the value of each share's portion of the fund's underlying assets and cash at the end of the trading day. Next Webinar: Tariffs, Inflation, and Recession: What To Do Now 5/22 2pm EST GoTo Webinar dashboard.gotowebinar.com/webinar/6733673538207782492 News & Noise 🧠 News: Great conversation with Louis, he seems to be in all the same themes we are talking about. Longer term perspective than we have so made for a great conversation…. — # (# ) — # (# ) Stocks Claw Back Most of April’s Tariff Losses Tesla, Alphabet help push up Nasdaq, which ends the week up more than 6% www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-claw-back-most-of-aprils-tariff-losses-5ea1b291?mod=finance_lead_pos3 — # (# ) We run a pre merger SPAC ETF (SPCX), haven’t talked about it much in the last couple of years because the SPAC market has sucked so bad, seeing some signs though…… — # (# ) — # (# ) — # (# ) Anduril Is Aiming to Do to Lockheed What Tesla Did to Ford www.barrons.com/articles/anduril-defense-ai-lockheed-tesla-palantir-9703eff9?mod=hp_LEDE_C_5 ❌ Noise: Stock-market bulls are cheering a rare technical signal. Here’s how it works. A rare technical signal known as the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator was triggered this week. That’s bullish, but investors should tread with caution. www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-bulls-are-cheering-a-rare-technical-signal-heres-how-it-works-0240c33a?mod=home_lead Have to agree with Gayed here, markets aren’t that easy or simple….. — # (# ) Good luck forecasting the price of Bitcoin, total waste of time….. — # (# ) Time Is Running Out for the Stock Market. Trump’s Next Move Is Crucial. www.barrons.com/articles/time-is-running-out-for-the-stock-market-trumps-next-move-is-crucial-6d2e304b?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 What Wall Street Is Saying UBS Macro Drivers….. ❝ The Early Warning Signal has been volatile while continuing to signal for more volatility. Fed expectations are once again a key driver of the model expectations increasing our downside probability by ~15% and reducing the probability of +5% by ~8%. As a reminder steep increases in fed cut expectations have historically been a negative signal for markets, especially pre-covid. The downside probability in our model spiked post tariff announcements on April 2 nd reducing the directional signal from extreme levels. HY Spread levels are still a support for equity markets however much less than before and the change in HY spreads on a 3mo basis is a net negative 13%. Positioning has fallen and Balanced Fund positioning is still a positive support however, futures are once again a negative for the signal. AAII Net sentiment has reached the lowest levels since 2005 and continues to add to upside probability, though we think this should be taken with a grain of salt. The models expectations for volatility remain very high. The probability of a +5% rally is now 32% vs 24% for a -5% fall. The probability of returns between +/-5% is 44% UBS, Global Strategy….. ❝ CTAs have sold $40/50bln worth of global stocks since our last update , with most of the selling happening in the first week and very little in the following two. Technicals might be turning positive, with very bearish sentiment (bull/bear index at -1.6stdev, or 5%le) and a strong price rebound last week. We expect CTAs to turn supportive in May, starting with $20/25bln of potential buying over the next two weeks. Tom Simons, Jefferies….. ❝ We continue to expect that the economy will avoid a recession. Growth will likely slow below potential for an extended period of time, however. We continue to expect three rate cuts from the Fed, but pushing out the timing to September from June. American exceptionalism is not dead and the US is still "investable" despite obvious and tangible hits to the country's int'l reputation and perceived trustworthiness. Stifel….. ❝ Powell’s appears to be staying and while nothings done yet, trade postering leaned more encouraging (though China denies talks and questions if the goal post moving pointing to “non-tariff barriers” and potential raise to auto tariffs) prompting a r isk on growth trade with High Beta outperforming Low Vol by 9% and MAGS +9% with the S&P rebounding 4.6%. JP Morgan, US Equity Derivative Strategy…. ❝ Macro systematic strategies have largely de-levered from US equities . The scope for further Volatility Targeting de-leveraging is limited (though non-zero), but they will only re-lever gradually once markets calm down, and CTAs could add to US equity exposure if markets rally a few % from current levels. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JP Morgan ❝ This earnings season should provide at least some clarity on tariffs / retaliation on US corporates, but the full extent of the impact will remain an unknown given scope, scale, and timing continue to evolve and trade deals have yet to be inked. Over the next two weeks, roughly 55% of S&P 500 companies will report earnings and provide insights on the evolving outlook for demand and pricing, tariff pass-through and margins, and spending on capex and R&D. Despite significant macro, trade, and other idiosyncratic headwinds during 1Q25 (e.g., weather, tax refunds), we believe corporate fundamentals were healthy before Liberation Day. Therefore, we believe the cuts to 1Q25 earnings are conservative, setting up for another quarter of 4-5% positive EPS surprise (vs. 4% last 4Qs) on resilient demand (including front-loading effects), better than expected net income margins, and strong capital reinvestment. Jefferies, Daily Macro…. ❝ Jef-X has been receiving feedback suggesting that we may be at “Peak Tariff Pain”, and this is the time to shop for oversold stock.  Jef-X has sympathy for this view in the sense, as articulated last week that rallies are likely (if for example Headlines re Trade Wars ease and news flow re de-regulation support for pockets of the economy) but are predisposed to be sold because of reasons highlighted below (SAA | Multiple Contraction | Tech Premium at Risk | Fed’s hands tied…). Therefore, unless Trump completely and convincingly folds, rallies should be sold. Four Up Days In a Row, Are We Out of the Woods? — # (# ) Fourth up day in a row after a tough start to the week. We are now in sight of the low from Liberation Day…….. This move is starting to look like an uptrend with higher highs and lower lows. Would like to see the 50 day move back above the 200 day and would like to see the price move above both, but I continue to slowly add back equity exposure. For now, expect resistance at those areas if we start to get close. Long term Treasuries continued to move back up…. Gold miners sold off again, but GDX is holding the 20 day EMA….. This is concerning…. — # (# ) I continue to like gold because we haven’t really made any trade deals, the market is just rallying on the assumption we will. Things should still be messy for a while, which favors gold. However, we always trade based on what we see, not what we think. If gold and the miners turn into shorts then we will short them. SLV sold off but held the 10 day…. Bitcoin continues to be strong…. Bitcoin and the related stocks seem to be the strongest area of the market with the least exposure to tariffs, the economy, etc. Trump 2.0 Era Brings Flurry of Crypto Deals Companies seek to capitalize on lighter regulation, growing mainstream interest www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-crypto-deals-regulation-e134056d?mod=finance_lead_pos1 My overall thinking hasn’t changed, I think the lows are in and you can add back equity exposure, slowly. We are not out of the woods yet by any means. I think you want a mix of precious metals and miners, bitcoin and crypto related, TLT, mid cap defense, along with all the AI themes that I talk about. Seeing a few Wall Street firms advising to sell US for Europe, not seeing it myself…. Germany downgrades 2025 growth forecast to zero Impact from Trump trade wars set to prolong longest economic slump in country’s postwar history www.ft.com/content/eccd7653-d3dd-420d-a675-8f3057a74c43 — # (# ) IMHO the US is still the place to be and Europe is just a trade. Using AI to Evaluate Earnings CLS is one of the stocks on my watchlist and on Friday they had disappointing earnings. One of the powerful uses of AI is to be able to give you an unbiased evaluation of a company’s earnings release and whether it is a buy, sell, or hold. Here’s what GPT had to say about CLS…… 📉 Stock Reaction: CLS –3% on Earnings Even though Celestica beat and raised across key metrics, the stock is pulling back. Why? Expectations were high heading into the print CLS has been one of the best-performing AI infrastructure suppliers , so any “less blowout” tone triggers selling Market likely pricing in a temporary deceleration in enterprise exposure, despite comm strength 📊 Earnings Highlights – Bullish Takeaways Segment Performance Notes Networking +99% Y/Y Driven by 400G/800G switch demand — clear AI infra beneficiary Comm Infrastructure +87% Y/Y Re-accelerated from prior +64% — strong tailwind from AI datacenter buildouts ATS (Advanced Tech) +5% vs flat guide Semi capex resilience is surprising — sign of strength Enterprise –39% (vs mid –40% guide) Google phasing into new TPU cycle — weakness is transitional CCS FY Growth Raised to high-teens (was mid-teens) Reflects confidence in AI + hyperscale infrastructure demand EPS Raised FY from $4.75 → $5.00 5% upward revision in a tough macro = positive signal Free Cash Flow Unchanged Steady, no deterioration despite investments 🔍 Strategic Interpretation 🟢 What’s Working: CLS is clearly tethered to the AI buildout . They’re the quiet enabler behind 400G/800G optical networks, boards, and systems. Strong acceleration in Comm and Semi Cap = they’re exposed to the infrastructure side of AI , not the volatile end-user side Enterprise weakness tied to GOOGL’s TPU transition = not structural 🔴 Risks: Market doesn’t give much margin for error right now — this was a “sell the news” setup Enterprise remains a drag, and broader slowdown in IT budgets could bleed into late 2025 Valuation had stretched short-term; pullback may continue if rates stay sticky or if AI hype cools 🧭 Playbook Hold / Add on Weakness : This is one of the most fundamentally sound AI infrastructure names , and a 3–5% post-earnings pullback on strong results is a gift Watch FCF and Enterprise Trends : If FCF starts slipping or GOOGL-related enterprise headwinds persist, reevaluate Pair With High-Beta AI : Consider using CLS as a lower-vol, real-revenue anchor against higher-beta names like SMCI or PLTR Optional Hedge : If the AI narrative stalls, hedge with short exposure to overbought end-user names (e.g., ARKK, NVDA options) Conclusion & Rating Celestica’s Q1 beat-and-raise, driven by explosive networking growth and an improved cost structure, positions it well to capture ongoing AI and cloud infrastructure spend. While cyclic exposures remain, the stock’s modest multiple, solid cash flow, and analyst upside suggest compelling risk/reward. Rating: 7/10 — a BUY on strength of secular tailwinds and an attractive entry point after the 3% post-earnings dip. Using AI to Evaluate Clinical Trials I’ve been getting more interested in biotech stocks lately and this hit my radar screen…. Effects of 52 weeks of precuneus rTMS in Alzheimer’s disease patients: a randomized trial - Alzheimer's Research & Therapy Background Personalized repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) of the precuneus (PC) is emerging as a new non-invasive therapeutic approach in treating Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Here we sought to investigate the effects of 52 weeks of rTMS applied over the PC on cognitive functions in patients with mild-to-moderate dementia due to AD. Methods Forty-eight patients with mild-to-moderate dementia due to AD were enrolled for the study. Of those 31 patients were extended to 52 weeks after being included in a 24-week trial (NCT • 03778151) with the same experimental design. The trial included a 52-week treatment with a 2-week intensive course where rTMS (or sham) was applied over the PC daily (5 times per week, Monday to Friday), followed by a 50-week maintenance phase in which the same stimulation was applied once weekly. Personalization of rTMS treatment was established using neuronavigated TMS in combination with electroencephalography (TMS-EEG). The primary outcome measure was change from baseline to week 52 of the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale–Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB). Secondary outcomes included score changes in the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale– Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog)11, Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study–Activities of Daily Living scale (ADCS-ADL) and Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI). Changes in cortical activity and connectivity were monitored by TMS-EEG. Results Among 48 patients randomized (mean age 72.8 years; 56% women), 32 (68%) completed the study. Repetitive TMS of the PC (PC-rTMS) had a significant effect on the primary outcome measure. The estimated mean change in CDR-SB after 52 week was 1.36 for PC-rTMS (95% confidence interval (CI) [0.68, 2.04]) and 2.45 for sham-rTMS group (95%CI [1.85, 3.05]). There were also significant effects for the secondary outcomes ADAS-Cog11, ADCS-ADL and NPI scores. Stronger DMN connectivity at baseline was associated with favorable response to rTMS treatment. Conclusions Fifty-two weeks of PC-rTMS may slow down the impairment of cognitive functions, activities of daily living and behavioral disturbances in patients with mild-to-moderate AD. Further multicenter studies are needed to confirm the clinical potential of DMN personalized rTMS. Trial registration The study was registered on the clinicaltrial.gov website on 07–07-2022 (NCT05454540). alzres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13195-025-01709-7 Of course I’m not an expert on any of this but it looked like the kind of study that could be actionable, so I asked GPT….. Key Takeaways from the 52-Week PC-rTMS Trial Clinical Benefit: Real rTMS slowed CDR-SB deterioration by ~50% versus sham (ΔCDR-SB 1.36 vs 2.45 at 52 weeks) and virtually halted ADCS-ADL decline (–1.5 vs –11.6). Safety: Well-tolerated with only mild, transient AEs. Biomarker Insight: Better baseline DMN connectivity (TMS-EEG) predicted stronger response — hinting at a patient-selection tool. Potential Winners Ticker Name Why It Wins Recent Price & Comment STIM Neuronetics, Inc. Market-leading NeuroStar TMS systems; ready to expand into AD indication once approved. $4.24 (+1.19% today) BWAY BrainsWay Ltd. Deep-TMS pioneer; broadening label from depression to cognitive disorders. $8.79 (+5.40% yesterday) ❝ Thesis: As trial data accumulate, reimbursement and adoption in neurology clinics could vault these pure-play device makers. Potential Losers Ticker Name Why It Loses Recent Price & Comment BIIB MarketWatch Biogen Inc. Heavy R&D spend on anti-amyloid drugs (Aduhelm) may face headwinds if non-drug options gain traction. $119.51 (–50% vs 52-wk high) MarketWatch LLY MarketWatch Eli Lilly & Co. Donanemab sales growth could moderate if rTMS offers an alternative at lower cost/adverse-event risk. Up 3.65% YTD but under broader enthusiasm MarketWatch ❝ Thesis: While still in early stages, a shift toward non-pharmacologic interventions may temper blockbuster AD drug trajectories. Ratings (1– • 10) STIM: 8/10 — best pure-play leverage to this trial. BWAY: 7/10 — strong technology but smaller footprint. BIIB: 4/10 — drug pipeline risk; valuation already reflects headwinds. LLY: 5/10 — diversified pipeline but vulnerable on AD front. Bottom line: If this pilot scales into multicenter trials and ultimately FDA/EMA labels, device stocks (STIM, BWAY) stand to be the big winners, while pure-play AD drug developers (BIIB, LLY) could see incremental pressure on uptake and pricing. When to Use Calls, Cash Secured Puts, and Risk Reversals One way you can design trades for asymmetrical risk is to get equity exposure by buying calls. In a bought call you only risk the paid premium and your upside is theoretically unlimited. However, with volatility higher than normal you can be right on direction and still lose money on calls, so I have been using more cash secured puts than I normally do. I had GPT do a deep dive on three of the main ways you can add equity exposure through options….. 1. Buying Calls When to Use: Bullish + Event-Driven: You expect a material catalyst (earnings beat, M&A, FDA approval) within your holding window. Low Implied Volatility (IV) Environments: Cheap calls when IV rank < 30%. Why It Works: Unlimited Upside, Defined Risk: You max out your loss to the premium paid; upside is theoretically infinite. Leverage: 1 lot of calls controls 100 shares at a fraction of the cash outlay. Key Considerations: Time Decay (Theta): Accelerates in the last 30 days to expiration. Avoid deep out-of-the-money calls and very short DTE unless you’re playing a near-term catalyst. Vega Exposure: Buying calls is long vega—you want IV to stay flat or rise. Example Entry: Stock at $100, IV rank = 25%. Buy the $105 strike one-month call for $2.00 (breakeven $107). 2. Selling Cash-Covered Puts When to Use: Neutral-to-Bullish View: You’d happily own the stock at a lower price and want to be paid to wait. High Volatility Regime: IV rank > 70% lets you collect rich premiums. Why It Works: Income Generation: You pocket premium up front; time decay is on your side (short theta). Lower Cost Basis: If assigned, your effective purchase price = strike – premium. Key Considerations: Capital Commitment: You must reserve full cash to buy 100 shares per contract at strike price. Downside Risk: You’re short delta and will be assigned if the stock gaps below your strike. Commentary on Recent Activity: With IV skyrocketing—thanks to Fed jitters and earnings season—you’ve smartly leaned into cash-covered puts. Premiums are at cyclical highs, so you’re getting paid >$3.00 for strikes 5–7% out of the money on many large-caps. Just be sure to pick strikes where you’d actually want to own the shares, and size positions so a single assignment won’t blow out your portfolio. 3. Risk Reversals (Synthetic Long) Structure: Sell an out-of-the-money put and use the premium to help buy an out-of-the-money call. Net Zero or Small Debit/Credit: You can structure it so it costs little or even nets you credit. Directional Exposure: You’re synthetically long the stock above the put strike. When to Use: Moderate Bullishness + High IV Skew: When puts are richly priced relative to calls. Desire to Cap Funding Cost: Use rich put premium to fund long call exposure. Key Considerations: Unlimited Risk Below Put Strike: If the stock crashes below your short put, you’re assigned and suffer full downside on 100 shares. Complex Management: You need to monitor both legs for assignment risk and roll as necessary. Strategy Attractiveness Ratings (1– • 10) Strategy Rating Rationale Buying Calls 6/10 Great for event plays & low IV—but poor time-decay profile now. Cash-Covered Put Selling 9/10 Top pick in today’s high-vol environment; premium is abundant. Risk Reversals 7/10 Efficient directional tool if you’re comfortable with assignment risk and leg management. Bottom Line: In today’s volatility-rich market, cash-covered puts sit at the sweet spot of yield and risk—you’re being generously paid to set a lower strike entry on names you like. Risk reversals are your tactical hedge if you want upside participation funded by that same fat put premium. And buying calls still earns its keep around key catalysts—but only in spots where IV is depressed and you can withstand theta bleed. How did you like today's newsletter Love it It's Okay Not Great Login or Subscribe to participate Before you go: Here are ways I can help ‍ ETFs : We offer innovative ETFs that cover all aspects of The --- H.E.A.T. Formula, Hedges, Edges, and Themes. Consulting: I'm happy to jump on the phone with financial advisors at no charge. I've built a wealth management firm and helped other advisors grow their practices through the use of substantially differentiated investment strategies. If you want to talk just send me an email at [email protected] Monthly investing webinars Rebel Finance Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Wealth Management-Coming Soon Paid Newsletter Service-Coming Soon All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0