보유 패턴의 에너지: LNG는 예외입니다.

Energy in a Holding Pattern: LNG Is the Exception THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts Energy in a Holding Pattern: LNG Is the Exception Energy in a Holding Pattern: LNG Is the Exception Oct 9, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead ⚡ Energy in a Holding Pattern: LNG Is the Exceptio … The Big Picture 1️⃣ Natural Gas: Discipline + Integration = Edge 2️⃣ LNG: 2025 Is a Record Year for FIDs 3️⃣ Canada: Infrastructure Quietly Warming Up 4️⃣ Investor Sentiment: Defensive But Not Bearish 5️⃣ Trade Implications 🧩 Bottom Line 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now Another big up day for the market. This shows you have to continue to buy the dips. I presented the --- H.E.A.T. Formula to the Big Sky AI Form Yesterday. Here’s the preview I did a few months back….. The area that really seemed to get the most interest was T for themes. Suppose that makes sense at an AI event. If you are still just watching the indices you are missed so much of what going on beneath the surface in themes…. Here’s the truth the indexes won’t tell you right now. If you stripped out AI and cloud capex, the U.S. economy would have looked a lot closer to recession this year. One company with roughly 36,000 employees—Nvidia—has been the fulcrum on which the entire 2026 macro outlook now tilts. That’s not hyperbole. It’s a reminder that in this cycle, capital spending—not payrolls—keeps the lights on. The doomsday crowd missed that because they’re still looking for answers in last decade’s playbook. Meanwhile, the world is quietly voting with its reserves. Central banks are buying gold like their careers depend on it. That isn’t a trade; it’s a confession. They no longer trust sovereign paper the way they used to. Gold is on track to displace Treasuries as the global reserve of choice , and the message couldn’t be clearer: the age of faith-based fiat is ending. JPMorgan slapped a tidy label on the behavior— the “debasement trade.” Fine. But this isn’t a meme. It’s policy made visible. Bitcoin is the other half of that sentence. It tends to oscillate around gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, and it remains superior on several dimensions we’ve covered: portability, auditability, and a monetary policy you don’t have to guess at. Last week’s record ~$6 billion crypto inflow wasn’t retail mania; it was the smart money quietly taking out insurance on a sovereign balance-sheet problem that isn’t going away. Here’s where it gets interesting. The best opportunists in crypto didn’t wait for the textbooks to catch up—they turned their mines into data centers. Since our September notes, MARA and CLSK ran hard as miners reallocated power and GPUs to AI/HPC workloads that can earn up to 25× the revenue per kilowatt-hour versus pure Bitcoin mining. Our 2025 standout, IREN , 5×’d after it made the same pivot. This isn’t “AI adjacency.” It’s a structural rerating of power-rich, permission-light compute providers—exactly the kind of mispriced bottleneck Wall Street only recognizes in the rearview mirror. And Bitcoin’s tape still argues asymmetry. No classic “climax top.” Cycle math from the 15.4k low supports a path into the 231k–308k zone on historical 15–20× moves, with higher tail outcomes if reflexivity takes hold. The Pi Cycle Top hasn’t fired—some models push a potential peak window into late 2026 . When that day comes, it will end the way these always do—with a vertical blow-off and a savage retrace. But we’re not there yet. So ignore the apocalypse tourists telling you they “called” a top in April. The market already told you what matters. Own what can’t be printed (gold, bitcoin). Own what powers the unprintable (grid hardware, chips, data centers). And when miners become landlords to AI, don’t argue with the dictionary—change the definition of “miner” and get paid for it. — # (# ) Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead Thursday October 23rd 2-3PM EST Covered call ETFs are everywhere — and everyone thinks they’ve found a “safe” way to collect yield in a sideways market. The truth? Most of them suck. They cap your upside, mislead investors with “yield” that’s really your own money coming back , and often trail just owning the stock by a mile. Join me for a brutally honest breakdown of how these funds actually work — and what you should be doing instead. What You’ll Learn: 🔥 Why “high yield” covered call ETFs are often just returning your own capital 📉 How most call-writing strategies quietly destroy compounding 🚫 Why owning covered calls in bull markets is like running a marathon in a weighted vest 💡 The simple structure that can fix these problems — and where the real daily income opportunities are hiding Click Here To Register register.gotowebinar.com/register/223734574050559064 ⚡ Energy in a Holding Pattern: LNG Is the Exception As I’ve said before in this newsletter, I have a tough time liking the oil stocks (except TPL which is an oil and gas leasing stock), but love natural gas. Jefferies just produced a report on this, so we decided to take a deeper dive this morning….. The Big Picture Jefferies’ latest energy note captures what we’re seeing across markets: uncertainty is toxic for oil , but integration and LNG are the quiet winners . As OPEC+ wrestles with spare capacity, market share, and politics, the street is starting to price in a mild oversupply narrative for crude — even though structural shortages still lurk under the surface. The result? Energy equities underperformed the S&P 500 by 4% last week , reversing the summer rotation that had pulled capital out of tech. Management teams are cutting costs and delaying growth capex , signaling a defensive stance going into 2026 budgeting season. But while oil equities wobble, natural gas and LNG remain the most investable corners of the energy complex. 1️⃣ Natural Gas: Discipline + Integration = Edge Jefferies’ conversations with key gas producers (EQT, AR, RRC, etc.) point to a consistent theme: capital discipline remains intact . Nobody wants to break ranks on production ahead of 2026 demand growth. Instead, the real alpha is in integration — connecting wellhead molecules to end-user markets via trading, marketing, and LNG export capacity. EQT is the poster child. They’re building out an “integrated gas vision” , expanding into LNG marketing and long-term offtake. This isn’t just about higher margins — it’s about controlling the entire value chain, from Appalachian gas to global LNG hub pricing. Other names (AR, RRC) are expected to follow, locking in long-term supply agreements with power producers and becoming vertically aligned exporters , not just commodity price takers. 2️⃣ LNG: 2025 Is a Record Year for FIDs Jefferies expects LNG final investment decisions (FIDs) to reach an all-time record ~84 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2025 — up from ~65 mtpa already sanctioned year-to-date. That would surpass the previous 2019 record (~71 mtpa). This is an underappreciated stat — it signals a multi-decade build cycle that doesn’t care about weekly crude headlines or short-term macro jitters. Key 2025 U.S. FIDs: Sempra Energy (SRE) : Port Arthur Phase 2 (~13.5 mtpa, ~$12B capex) NextDecade (NEXT) : Rio Grande Train 4 (~6 mtpa, ~$6.7B capex) Venture Global (VG) : CP2 Phase 1 (~$1,100/ton capex) Woodside (WDS) : Louisiana LNG (~$960/ton capex) 💡 Translation: 2025 will mark the largest single-year buildout of global LNG capacity ever recorded. These projects weren’t just approved because prices were good — they were accelerated to avoid expiration of EPC contracts and to lock in favorable cost structures. Even with capex inflation, developers are moving faster, not slower. 3️⃣ Canada: Infrastructure Quietly Warming Up Jefferies also highlights renewed progress in Canadian LNG and infrastructure — a theme we’ve been flagging as part of our JUCE (AI Power Generation) framework. Projects that connect Western Canadian natural gas to global markets are resurfacing, driven by: Better U.S. Gulf pricing Asian demand pull And favorable long-term carbon intensity metrics While the U.S. dominates headlines, Canada’s LNG exports could emerge as a cleaner, geopolitically safer alternative over the next 3–5 years. 4️⃣ Investor Sentiment: Defensive But Not Bearish Despite the noise, energy investors aren’t capitulating — they’re recalibrating . Oil equities lag short-term, but the gas trade is sticky . OPEC+ indecision creates hesitation, not liquidation. Cost control across producers signals margin discipline, not distress. Jefferies’ message is subtle but important: ❝ “Uncertainty breeds caution — but the long-term commitment to natural gas and LNG remains a focus.” Translation: fund managers are pulling back from oil beta, not from the broader energy theme. 5️⃣ Trade Implications Bullish themes: U.S. gas integration: EQT, AR, RRC expanding trading/LNG desks. LNG EPC & services: BKR, FTI, KBR, and FLR — capex flow-through beneficiaries. Midstream infrastructure: WMB, TRGP, and Cheniere-like tolling models benefit from throughput growth. Canadian export corridor: WDS, CNQ, and Enbridge-linked projects. Bearish / neutral themes: Oil-heavy majors (XOM, CVX) in short-term relative lag until OPEC+ clarity. Pure E&Ps without LNG exposure — capital rotation risk. 🧩 Bottom Line ❝ Global energy markets are stuck between OPEC indecision and political dysfunction, but the natural gas and LNG trade is booming beneath the surface. 2025 will be the biggest year in history for LNG project approvals — a signal that the real money is flowing to integration, exports, and infrastructure , not drilling rigs. Oil may tread water, but gas is quietly turning into the next great global power currency. 📈 Stock Corner Today’s stock is Texas Ventures (TVA)…… It’s a pre merger SPAC that had some Trump related activity. Hate buying these over $11, but this is hard to ignore…. — # (# ) Longer term readers know that one of my top themes is Trump’s Inner Circle. No matter what you think of him as a President he’s extremely consequential for themes and individual stocks. After a bit of censorship we’ve gotten the go ahead to launch our Tuttle Capital Government Grift ETF (GRFT). Hoping for next week. One of the biggest parts will be Trump’s Inner Circle. Stay tuned. ‘Government Grift’ ETF tracking Congress trades could launch this week The SEC has set an effective date for the Tuttle Capital Government Grift ETF, which could launch this week to track congressional trades and companies tied to the President. cointelegraph.com/news/government-grift-etf-could-launch-as-early-as-friday 📬 --- In Case You Missed It Visa Just Made A Bet That Could Reshape How Money Moves Globally — And Stablecoins Are At The Center Of It The payment giant everyone thought would fight crypto tooth and nail just announced it’s building the on-ramp instead—and the implications for how businesses move money across borders could be massive. Visa (NYSE:V) said on Sept. 30 that it launched a ... finance.yahoo.com/news/visa-just-made-bet-could-160111031.html ❝ Not everyone sees this as progress. Tuttle Capital Management CEO Matthew Tuttle told Reuters that stablecoins are “moving from crypto gimmick to financial plumbing,” adding that it’s “one of the reasons we launched an inverse regional bank exchange-traded fund as I think the regionals are in trouble”. His fund is designed to profit when regional bank stocks decline. SKRE - Inverse Regional Banks ETF | Innovative Investment Strategy Explore SKRE, the Inverse Regional Banks ETF offering a unique investment strategy with -200% daily performance of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF. Ideal for navigating volatile markets. www.shortregionalbanks.com 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unleashed Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. 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